Olietopic #10 - Prijs per vat rond de 75 dollar

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Olieprijs sluit bijna 5% hoger; hoogste niveau sinds begin juni
19-08-2009 22:01:00

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--De prijs van een vat olie is woensdag bijna 5% hoger gesloten. Stijgende Amerikaanse aandelen en een onverwachte daling van de wekelijkse olievoorraden zorgden er voor dat prijs van een vat olie op het hoogste niveau sloot sinds begin juni.

De septemberfuture voor een vat ruwe olie sloot woensdag op de New York Mercantile Exchange $3,23 of 4,7% hoger op $72,42.

Dit is het hoogste slot sinds 12 juni toen de olieprijs sloot op $72,04 per vat.

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Contango, VLCCs, and the Oceanic Jam

There is a kind of oceanic traffic jam out there among very large crude carriers (VLCCs), with something like 7% (according to Lloyd's) of them storing crude oil off the coast of Europe, Asia, or North America in anticipation of higher prices later this year.

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Warning over global oil 'decline'

The UK Energy Research Centre study says there is a consensus that the era of cheap oil is at an end.

But it warns that most governments, including the UK's, exhibit little concern about oil depletion.

The report's authors also state that the 10 largest oil producing fields in the world are all in decline.

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The end of affordable oil

Economist Jeff Rubin cemented his reputation as a maverick when he left his position as chief economist at CIBC World Markets, and a 20-year-career there, to publish a book about the end of cheap oil and the end of globalization, as we know it.

In 2000, Rubin had told Calgary's Petroleum Club that oil - then at an alarming 10-year-high of about $30 per barrel - would rise to $50 within five years. In 2005, he was among the first to correctly predict $100 oil.

Now, he says oil will break $200 as the economic recovers.

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Op donderdag 15 oktober 2009 17:05 schreef Perrin het volgende:

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'Four Saudi Arabias' needed for oil
The world will have to find four Saudi Arabias by 2030 if it wants to maintain its oil dependency, the International Energy Agency says.

The reality of peak oil is fast approaching, and more must be done to develop and encourage the use of alternatives including solar and nuclear, the agency's chief economist has warned.

"My main motto never changes, the era of low oil prices is over," Dr Fatih Birol said.

"When the economy recovers, oil prices will recover accordingly. Mid to long term, we will be experiencing high prices."

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Obama says U.S. must win clean-energy race

Reporting from Washington - President Obama, citing a global competition for development of clean-energy alternatives to oil, insisted today that the United States must win that race and called on Congress to enact legislation also intended to curb climate change.

"The nation that wins this competition is going to be the nation that leads the world," Obama told an audience at one of the nation's premier research universities in Massachusetts. "And I want America to be that nation -- it's that simple."

Obama praised "a legacy of innovation" that "taps into something that is essential about America."

"Even in the darkest of times that this nation has seen, it has always sought a brighter horizon," the president said at the MIT in Cambridge, Mass. "We have always been about innovation. We have always been about discovery. That is part of our DNA."

"There is no silver bullet," Obama said. "There is going to be a lot of debate about how we move from an economy that is importing oil to one that is exporting clean energy. . . . There are going to be all kinds of debates, both in the laboratories and on Capitol Hill."

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Op donderdag 15 oktober 2009 17:05 schreef Perrin het volgende:

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Op zaterdag 24 oktober 2009 12:48 schreef henkway het volgende:

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Dat wordt fietsen of een heel klein autootje

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Government failure to acknowledge oil supply crunch risks conflict and threatens the climate

Governments and multi-lateral agencies have failed to recognise the imminence and scale of the global oil supply crunch, and most of them remain completely unprepared for its consequences. The report calls for governments to officially acknowledge the crunch and to shift urgently into safe sustainable energy alternatives.

"The world's governments have been asleep at the wheel. Their collective failure to recognise the imminent end of the oil age means we have lost a decade in which action could have been taken to develop alternatives and avert the worst outcomes of a dramatic drop off in the supply of oil," said Simon Taylor, Director of Global Witness. "Recognition of the oil supply crunch would have injected a sense of urgency and increased ambition for safer emissions reduction targets, both of which are sorely missing in the lead up to Copenhagen."

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Op zaterdag 24 oktober 2009 14:19 schreef waht het volgende:
Het gaat een hele klus worden om sommige Amerikanen uit hun semi-vrachtwagens te sleuren. Velen kopen denk ik liever benzine voor hun SUV dan voedsel, gezien ook de reserves die ze toch al hebben.

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Op maandag 26 oktober 2009 14:54 schreef pberends het volgende:

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Maar goed, die olieprijs begint wel pijn te doen op 80 dollar met zo'n belabberde economie...

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Op maandag 26 oktober 2009 15:07 schreef Basp1 het volgende:

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Is die olieprijs in euro's nu ook gestegen of heeft zich dit alleen geuit in een oplopende wisselkoersverhouding tussen de euro en de dollar?

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Key oil figures were distorted by US pressure, says whistleblower

The world is much closer to running out of oil than official estimates admit, according to a whistleblower at the International Energy Agency who claims it has been deliberately underplaying a looming shortage for fear of triggering panic buying.

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Too fearful to publicise peak oil reality

So far in facing this huge challenge, our political/economic system seems unable to cope with reality. We are forced to carry on living in an illusion that we have so much time to adapt to post-oil that we don't even need to be talking or thinking much about what a world without plentiful oil would look like. Reality has become too dangerous.

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Het Internationaal Energie Agentschap (IEA) verwacht dat de olieprijs in 2020 uitkomt op 100 dollar per vat en in 2030 op 115 dollar per vat. Dat meldde het agentschap vandaag in zijn World Energy Outlook 2009. Nu kost een vat 79 dollar. Het IEA verwacht dat de vraag naar olie jaarlijks met 1 procent toeneemt.

De wereldwijde olievraag zou omhooggaan van 85 miljoen vaten per dag in 2008 tot 105 miljoen in 2030. Het agentschap gaat er bij deze berekeningen vanuit dat de aanstaande klimaattop in Kopenhagen geen grote veranderingen in het energiebeleid teweeg zal brengen.

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The petroleum civil war
The petroleum world is at war with itself, and the stakes of the quarrel are high for all of us. The debate concerns the concept of peak oil — the term used to describe a global limit of oil production — its timing, and its implications.

Most alarmingly, recent accusations reveal that instead of raising awareness about peak oil, governments have been suppressing the truth about its proximity. On Nov. 9, a day before releasing its annual report, the International Energy Agency was criticized by two whistleblowers for allegedly capitulating to U.S. pressure to downplay decline rates and overplay the chances of finding new reserves.

A culture of denial will prove to be disastrous for properly mitigating this problem. The answer lies in universities, human ingenuity and research and development, in students and faculty like us. Perhaps the U.S. government will wake up to this reality and start properly allocating capital in a responsible manner before it’s too late.

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Europe’s Busiest Port Expands for Oil Speculators, Idling Ships

Nov. 26 (Bloomberg) -- The Port of Rotterdam, Europe’s busiest, expanded its anchorage area to accommodate increasing demand from oil traders storing fuel at sea and more idling ships awaiting cargoes.

Rijkswaterstaat, the Dutch waterways authority, designated an area 15 kilometers (9 miles) northwest off the North Sea resort of Scheveningen as a new anchoring zone, the port authority said in a statement on its Web site today.

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Op vrijdag 27 november 2009 14:15 schreef waht het volgende:

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Ik ga wel eens hardlopen op het strand bij scheveningen en het viel mij ook op hoeveel schepen daar liggen eigenlijk liggen verankert.

http://www.eia.doe.gov/ipm/supply.html
Laagste punt van olieproductie ligt volgens de EIA in mei 2009. In augustus alweer een miljoen bbl/dag hoger dan dat laagste punt.

http://omrpublic.iea.org/
Ook het IEA laat weer een stijging zien sinds het tweede kwartaal van 2009.

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Putin launches new Russia oil route to Asia

MOSCOW — Prime Minister Vladimir Putin launched Russia's long-awaited Siberian oil export route Monday, giving energy-hungry Asia a new supply source from the world's largest crude exporter seeking to diversify its client base away from Europe.

"For Russia this is truly a serious event," Putin said during the terminal inauguration ceremony at the port of Kozmino near Nakhodka, in comments broadcast on state television.

"This is a strategic project because it allows us to enter completely new, growing, promising markets of the Asian Pacific region," Putin said.

Russia has been keen to diversify its client base beyond its traditional European consumers, who have in turn in recent years been looking for ways to reduce their heavy dependence on Russian energy.

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China to ‘Actively’ Join Global Race for Resources

Jan. 5 (Bloomberg) -- China, the world’s second-biggest energy consumer, said it will “actively” participate in the global competition for oil, natural gas and mineral resources as domestic demand rises.

The country will intensify the development of overseas resources to ensure “stable” energy supplies for economic growth, Zhang Xiaoqiang, vice chairman of the National Development and Reform Commission, said in a speech on foreign investment posted on the commission’s Web site today.

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Op donderdag 7 januari 2010 15:00 schreef Perrin het volgende:

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Op woensdag 3 februari 2010 16:55 schreef Revolution-NL het volgende:
tvp
Als de economie weer flink aantrekt ben ik bang dat de olie prijs weer keihard door het dak heen gaat

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Op woensdag 3 februari 2010 17:40 schreef waht het volgende:
Maar dan richt je je volledig op de vraag. Het aanbod is net zo roerig als de vraag. Veel oliebronnen zijn al onrendabel geworden door de gekelderde prijs. Als de olieprijs lager dan 30 dollar zou komen kunnen alleen nog een paar gelukkige Oliesjeiks hun kosten laag genoeg houden, bij wijze van spreken.

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Op woensdag 3 februari 2010 23:48 schreef waht het volgende:
Maar goed, de financiële crisis heeft ons (tijdelijk) gered van een oliecrisis.

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Branson warns that oil crunch is coming within five years

Sir Richard Branson and fellow leading businessmen will warn ministers this week that the world is running out of oil and faces an oil crunch within five years.

The founder of the Virgin group, whose rail, airline and travel companies are sensitive to energy prices, will say that the ­coming crisis could be even more serious than the credit crunch.

"The next five years will see us face another crunch – the oil crunch. This time, we do have the chance to prepare. The challenge is to use that time well," Branson will say.

"Our message to government and businesses is clear: act," he says in a foreword to a new report on the crisis. "Don't let the oil crunch catch us out in the way that the credit crunch did."

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Op maandag 8 februari 2010 19:16 schreef SeLang het volgende:
Voor mij is elke grafiek die NU peak oil aangeeft uit de lucht gegrepen, aangezien de productiecapaciteit zich NU op een alltime high bevindt en peakoil dus per definitie niet is bereikt. Alle projecties van dalende olieproductie vanaf hier zijn gewoon speculatie.

Op een bepaald moment zal peak oil inderdaad worden bereikt, maar niemand weet of dat is in 2010, 2030 of 2100.