De Beursvloer #54: AEX intraday op laagste niveau in 12 jaar

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Op vrijdag 27 februari 2009 18:16 schreef Zero2Nine het volgende:
De relatieve stijging van Wallstreet komt iig NIET door Citigroup (bijna -35% zojuist, net zo slecht als dat het aandeel pre-market stond)

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Op vrijdag 27 februari 2009 18:25 schreef pberends het volgende:
PPT gaat net zo lang door tot ze alle beursgenoteerde bedrijven in handen hebben .

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Op vrijdag 27 februari 2009 15:26 schreef star_gazer het volgende:
Ik ben benieuwd. Gezien het verloop van de laatste tijd zou het me niets verbazen als de dow vanavond nog in de plus eindigt ofzo

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Op vrijdag 27 februari 2009 18:38 schreef star_gazer het volgende:

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Je gaat me toch niet vertellen dat ik straks nog gelijk krijg ook

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Marc Faber: Stocks Poised to Rally

Friday, February 27, 2009 10:52 AM

Investment guru Marc Faber, publisher of The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report newsletter, sees better times ahead for the stock market.

That may surprise many, given that stocks dropped to fresh lows this week as the government wrestled with bank bailouts and rumors of nationalization in the financial sector.

But Faber tells Bloomberg that the economy and markets have slumped so badly that they should soon rebound — at least a little bit.

“I wouldn’t give up entirely on the theory that you can have some kind of rally develop soon, for one simple reason: The news on the economy has been horrific,” he says.

Faber doesn’t expect the economy to recover instantly. Indeed, “economic news will stay bad for quite some time, and the global economy will continue to deteriorate,” he says.

But many financial markets already have discounted the bad news, Faber notes.

“And the news over the next three months might not be quite as bad,” he says. “There can be a rebound in housing starts or exports.”

That would bring bulls out of the woodwork, saying the economy has bottomed out, and we could get quite a rally, according to Faber. Global easing by central banks also will help.

“We are now more or less in an area where the market, after a final selloff, can have a reasonably good rally,” he says.

Others don’t expect a fast rebound.

“Sell the recent rally,” Morgan Stanley strategist Jason Todd wrote to clients.

“A turnaround in profitability will not come quickly.”

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Faber Says Financial Industry to Contract ‘Much More’



Feb. 27 (Bloomberg) -- The financial services industry, hammered by job cuts and record losses, is in for an even bigger contraction as the global recession deepens, said Marc Faber, publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report.

“The financial sector will contract and it will contract much more than we’ve seen so far,” said Faber, who was in Tokyo to speak at an event hosted by CLSA Ltd. Financial professionals have “been in paradise for the past 25 years.”

More than 275,000 jobs in the financial industry have been lost in the last two years, according to Bloomberg data, while losses and writedowns at global companies exceeded $1 trillion in the past year. Faber said the contraction could rival declines seen in the 1970s following the collapse of Bernard Cornfeld’s Investors Overseas Services that shook confidence in the industry for a decade.

“The financial sector has been occupying themselves with trading against each other all day and it’s totally unproductive,” said Faber, 62, who told investors to abandon U.S. stocks a week before 1987’s so-called Black Monday crash, according to his Web site. “It’s like a huge casino and that will come to an end.”

Faber said gold was currently expensive relative to other commodities, and the bearish sentiment that’s driven investors from equities to the precious metal is likely to reverse soon. He had recommended investors buy gold since the start of an eight-year rally that this month saw the metal top $1,000 per ounce as skittish investors sought safe-haven assets.

‘Substantial’ Stock Rally

“I’m a little bit careful about the outlook for gold for the rest of the year,” he said. “A countertrend rally could occur soon where stocks would suddenly rise quite substantially.”

Faber today recommended investors short U.S. Treasuries, as a 27-year bull market likely ended in December, starting the beginning of a long bear market. Faber also recommends selling the Japanese yen, though the nation’s stocks may outperform global equities in the next one or two years because they have been depressed for so long, he said.

The yield on the 10-year U.S. government bond fell to a record low of 2.04 percent on Dec. 18, compared with a peak of 15.8 percent in September 1981. The yen has gained against every other currency in the world, except one, in the last 12 months even as the economy contracted at the fastest pace in 35 years. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average fell to the lowest in 26 years this week.

Head for the Farm

The best bet for investors may be to buy a farm and escape from the cities, as a prolonged recession could lead to war, as the Great Depression did, said the Swiss national, who now lives in Thailand.

“Buy a farm and let your girlfriend work on the farm,” he said, to the applause of investors. “If the global economy doesn’t recover, usually people go to war.”

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TomTom onbetwiste topper
De keuze voor het beste aandeel 2009 is duidelijk: TomTom. Het aandeel wordt 22 keer als topper genoemd en slechts 3 experts denken dat dit het slechtste aandeel gaat worden. De meeste experts wijzen wel op de slechte gang van zaken in de eindmarkten, maar ook op het feit dat de koers al met 90% is gedaald dit jaar.

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Op vrijdag 27 februari 2009 19:23 schreef M.Melandri het volgende:

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corne met zijn vriendjes

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Op vrijdag 27 februari 2009 19:23 schreef M.Melandri het volgende:

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corne met zijn vriendjes

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Op vrijdag 27 februari 2009 18:46 schreef pberends het volgende:
AEX even door het putje

Helemaal zelf geschreven zonder bron.

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Op vrijdag 27 februari 2009 19:33 schreef Zero2Nine het volgende:
Opzich geen slechte tekst, had zo van RTL of het ANP kunnen komen. Maar die zullen wel geen woorden als "door het putje gebruiken". Jammer dat je het PPT niet even noemt ergens, mooie manier om zo'n term bekend te maken bij de gewone man op de frontpage

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Op vrijdag 27 februari 2009 18:46 schreef pberends het volgende:
AEX even door het putje

Helemaal zelf geschreven zonder bron.

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Grootste dalers afgelopen half jaar
AMG 88 %
Fortis 86,9 %
ING 83,5 %
TomTom 79,5 %
SNS Reaal 75,5 %

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Op vrijdag 27 februari 2009 19:34 schreef elcastel het volgende:

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Hou op, ppt noemen en we zitten zo met heel AEX in TRU. En we zitten al op het randje want het lijkt af en toe wel R&P hier.

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Op vrijdag 27 februari 2009 19:37 schreef Zero2Nine het volgende:
De beurs is één en al psychologie, dus met R&P zit je er niet ver naast. De relatie van het publiek met de bankiers is ook aardig bekoeld.

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Op vrijdag 27 februari 2009 19:31 schreef M.Melandri het volgende:
rust in de tent op ws

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Op vrijdag 27 februari 2009 19:44 schreef Dinosaur_Sr het volgende:

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teveel rust, dacht General Electric.Laten we ons dividend 'ns verlagen, that will get 'm fired up!

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Op vrijdag 27 februari 2009 19:34 schreef BlaZ het volgende:

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De beurs reageerde heftig op economische cijfers uit de VS, waar bekend werd dat de Amerikaanse economie 6,2 procent gekrompen was

"in het vierde kwartaal" ontbreekt hier en is wel vrij belangrijk....

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Op vrijdag 27 februari 2009 19:58 schreef M.Melandri het volgende:
stuiterbal die dow

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Op vrijdag 27 februari 2009 20:30 schreef M.Melandri het volgende:
vind et maar een saaie sessie tot nu toe, futs vanmiddag waren nog interessanter

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Stocks bear market has years to run: Prechter

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks will remain in a bear market for years as company earnings shrink further, and the S&P 500 could fall by half from current levels even though there could be a sharp short-term rally soon, Robert Prechter, who had forecast the 1987 market crash, said on Friday.

"My long term opinion is that the bear market has several years left to run, and stock prices will go a lot lower," Prechter, chief executive officer at research company Elliott Wave International, said in a telephone interview. "So any rally that happens is going to be a bear market rally."

The S&P this week broke below 745 points -- 19 months after Gainesville, Georgia-based Elliott Wave International had recommended shorting the benchmark index down to that level.

Now, Prechter said, the S&P index could fall by half from these levels over the long term, although he declined to give a specific forecast.

"We are less than halfway through it price-wise," he said. "The market is still overvalued, one reason being that companies continue to lower earnings."

But near term, the risk of a kneejerk rebound in stock prices has risen.

This week Prechter recommended closing out the short position recommended on the S&P 500 back in 2007, because too many investors are now betting that prices will drop.

"The bear side has gotten a bit crowded in the stock market," Prechter said, but said this is a short term strategic view only.

On Friday morning, the S&P 500 fell to a 12-year low around 735 points, mauled by deepening worries about the banking system and government data showing the deepest quarterly contraction in the U.S. economy since the early 1980s.

NO GLITTER IN GOLD

Prechter now advocates betting on a decline in precious metals, after investors fearful about the safety of their money amid the biggest global financial crisis since the Great Depression have piled into the classic safe haven of gold in recent weeks, boosting its price.

On Monday, Prechter forecast that gold had just peaked, at $1,000 an ounce.

"Gold and silver should go significantly lower," he said. "Too many people now think owning them is a good idea. Remember when everybody thought owning real estate and stocks was a good idea?"

Gold, which briefly topped the $1,000 mark last week on escalating fears about the deeply impaired state of debt-burdened banks, has since slipped to about $950. Gold hit "an important intermediate term peak," at $1,000, Prechter said.

"Again, nothing is certain, but I like betting against crowds. And we have had so many to bet against in recent years: real estate, stocks, subprime mortgages, The New Economy, oil, collectibles, commodities, baseball salaries, and now silver and bonds. It's been a smorgasbord of opportunity," Prechter said.

In addition, Prechter has a pessimistic outlook on U.S. government bonds.

"Treasury bonds have started a bear market," over the longer term, he said.

"Several scenarios could unfold to explain why: one of them is that government borrowing demands could go up and up and creditors could demand higher yields," he said. The U.S. government is expected to issue some $2 trillion of debt this year.

Fixed-income analysts have been stepping up warnings that over recent months that gargantuan government bond issuance to pay for financial rescue efforts may push yields, which move inversely to prices, steeply higher. The 10-year yield traded one percentage point its five-decade trough on Friday, at 3.04 percent.

But Prechter, as he originally urged in his 2002 book "Conquer the Crash," which warned of the dangers of a U.S. debt bubble and deflationary depression, continues to favor safer cash proxies such as Treasury bills.

"It's a deflationary environment. Safe cash equivalents are still where you want to be," he said. "I am still in favor of (U.S.) T-bills," he said. "The dollar bull market has more to run. That is one reason to hold them."

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Op vrijdag 27 februari 2009 21:04 schreef PietjePuk007 het volgende:
TT aangepast, 1995 is wel echt lang geleden. Wat is de volgende bodem ?