De Beursvloer #33: AEX hardloper; door 270 punten

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Op vrijdag 2 januari 2009 22:05 schreef SeLang het volgende:

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Btw, bodem ruim 2 jaar later op 40,56

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Op vrijdag 2 januari 2009 22:05 schreef SeLang het volgende:

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Btw, bodem ruim 2 jaar later op 40,56

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Op vrijdag 2 januari 2009 22:46 schreef ItaloDancer het volgende:

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in april pas? vind je dat niet wat link?

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Op vrijdag 2 januari 2009 22:55 schreef ItaloDancer het volgende:

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AFA

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Op vrijdag 2 januari 2009 22:31 schreef LXIV het volgende:
Dan zouden we toch eerst naar de ca. 320 moeten.

Maar resultaten in het verleden, bla bla bla.

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"There's a time bomb in there somewhere," Crandall said, "but we don't know exactly where on the calendar it's planted."

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Op zaterdag 3 januari 2009 14:22 schreef pberends het volgende:
S&P wordt wel link nu. Al drie dagen achter elkaar 2 tot 3% gestegen. Ben benieuwd of er maandag dan nog een dag bij te plakken is. Er moet een keer een kleine correctie naar beneden komen. Zal dinsdag wel zijn.

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Op zaterdag 3 januari 2009 14:42 schreef SjonLok het volgende:

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maar het maakt toch niet zoveel uit of de aex maandag of dinsdag een beetje naar beneden gaat?

Jammer als de aex maandag wat daalt, dan heb ik iets minder winst, of mogelijk een beetje verlies, op de investering die ik vrijdag heb gedaan, en heb laten staan. Dan pakken we dinsdag wel weer de weg omhoog op.

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Op zaterdag 3 januari 2009 14:55 schreef pberends het volgende:

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Zeker, ik ga bij een daling juist extra goedkoop longs inslaan.

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Op zaterdag 3 januari 2009 15:06 schreef SjonLok het volgende:

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ow ok. Ik was in de war gebracht doordat je de S&P500 link vond, na een aantal dagen stijging op rij.

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Nouriel Roubini Says Worst Still Is Ahead of Us: Year in Review

Commentary by Nouriel Roubini

Jan. 1 (Bloomberg) -- The global financial system in 2008 experienced its worst crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s. Major financial institutions went bust. Others were bought up on the cheap or survived only after major bailouts. Global stock markets fell by more than 50 percent from their 2007 peaks. Interest-rate spreads spiked. A severe liquidity and credit crunch appeared. Many emerging-market economies on the verge of a crisis had to ask for help from the International Monetary Fund.

The global financial system literally went into a cardiac arrest after the Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. collapse and a meltdown was barely avoided through very aggressive policy responses. So what lies ahead in 2009? Is the worst behind us or ahead of us?

Unfortunately, the worst is ahead of us. The entire global economy will contract in a severe and protracted U-shaped global recession that started a year ago. The U.S. will certainly experience its worst recession in decades, a deep and protracted contraction lasting at least through the end of 2009. Even in 2010 the economic recovery may be so weak -- 1 percent growth or so -- that it will feel terrible even if the recession is technically over.

Recession Spreads

There also will be recessions in the euro zone, the U.K., continental Europe, Canada, Japan and the other advanced economies.

A hard landing for emerging-market economies may also be at hand. Among the so-called BRICs, Russia will be in an outright recession in 2009. Growth in China will slow to 5 percent or less, representing a hard landing for a country that needs expansion of close to 10 percent to move 10 million to 15 million poor rural farmers into the urban industrial sector every year. Brazil will barely grow in 2009. Even India will experience a sharp slowdown.

Most other emerging market economies will suffer a similar hard landing. This severe global recession will morph into a stag-deflation, a deadly combination of economic stagnation/recession and deflation. In the advanced economies, with aggregate demand falling below growing aggregate supply, slack in goods markets will lead to deflationary pressures as companies’ pricing power is restrained.

Likewise, rising unemployment will constrain labor costs and wage growth. These factors, combined with sharply falling commodity prices, will cause inflation in advanced economies to ease toward negative territory, raising concerns about deflation.

Danger of Deflation

Deflation is dangerous as it leads to a liquidity trap: nominal policy rates can’t fall below zero, so monetary policy becomes ineffective and even quantitative easing may not work.

Falling prices mean that the real cost of capital is high and the real value of nominal debts rise. This leads to further declines in consumption and investment, thus setting in motion a vicious circle in which incomes and jobs are squeezed, aggravating the fall in demand and prices.

As traditional monetary policy becomes ineffective, other unorthodox policies will continue to be used: policies to bail out investors, financial institutions, and borrowers; massive provision of liquidity to banks in order to ease the credit crunch; and even more radical actions to reduce long-term interest rates on government bonds and narrow the spread between market rates and government bonds.

Triggering Event

Today’s global crisis was triggered by the collapse of the U.S. housing bubble, but it wasn’t caused only by it. America’s credit excesses were in residential mortgages, commercial mortgages, credit cards, auto loans and student loans.

There were also massive excesses in the securitized products that converted these debts into toxic financial derivatives; in borrowing by local governments; in financing for leveraged buyouts that should never have occurred; in corporate bonds that will suffer massive losses as defaults surge; in the dangerous and unregulated credit default swap market.

Moreover, these pathologies weren’t confined to the U.S. There were housing bubbles in many other countries, fueled by excessive and cheap lending that didn’t reflect underlying risks. There was a commodities bubble and private-equity and hedge-funds bubbles.

Shadow Banks

We now are seeing the demise of the shadow banking system, the complex of non-bank financial institutions that looked like banks as they borrowed short term and in liquid ways, leveraged a lot, and invested in longer term and illiquid ways. As a result, the biggest asset and credit bubble in financial history is going bust, with overall credit losses likely to be more than $2 trillion.

Unless governments rapidly recapitalize financial institutions, the credit crunch will become even more severe as losses mount faster than recapitalization and banks are forced to constrain credit and lending. Equity prices and other risky assets have plunged from their peaks of late 2007, but there are still significant risks for more declines.

An emerging consensus argues that the prices of many risky assets -- including equities -- have fallen so much that we are at the bottom and a rapid recovery will occur. But in the next few months the macroeconomic news, the earnings and profits reports, and the financial sector news from around the world will be worse than expected. This will put more pressure on prices of risky assets, with a chance of a 20 percent fall in global equity prices.

Meltdown Averted

While the odds of a systemic financial meltdown have been reduced by the actions of the Group of Seven and other economies, severe vulnerabilities remain.

The credit crunch will persist and spread beyond mortgages. Deleveraging will continue, as thousands of hedge funds -- many of which will go bust -- and other leveraged players are forced to sell assets into illiquid and distressed markets, thus causing price declines and driving more insolvent financial institutions out of business. Credit losses will mount as the recession deepens. And a few emerging-market economies will certainly enter a full-blown financial crisis.

So 2009 will be a painful year of global recession and further financial stresses, losses and bankruptcies. Currently, the probability of an L-shaped, stag-deflation is now rising to a third, while the probability of a severe U-shaped recession is two-thirds. Only aggressive, coordinated and effective policy actions by advanced and emerging-market countries can ensure that the global economy starts to recover -- however slowly --in 2010, rather than entering a more protracted period of economic stagnation.

(The opinions expressed by Mr. Roubini are his own.)

To contact the writer of this columns: Nouriel Roubini at nroubini@stern.nyu.edu

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Economische situatie zal nog verslechteren (Nouriel Roubini)

Professor aan de New York University Nouriel Roubini, de man die de komst van de kredietcrisis vrij accuraat voorspelde, verklaarde gisteren aan Bloomberg News dat de financiële crisis verder zal verslechteren.

Roubini verwacht dat de wereldwijde economie in een diepe en U-vormige recessie gaat belanden. Die U-vorm betekent dat een economisch herstel lang op zich kan laten wachten.

Hij stelt ook een harde landing voor de groeimarkten in het vooruitzicht. De groei van de Chinese economie zou terugvallen tot 5% of zelfs minder, terwijl ook de Indische economie moeilijke tijden tegemoet gaat.

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Obama wil 3 miljoen banen scheppen



03-01-2009 | Gepubliceerd 18:03
03-01-2009 | Laatst bijgewerkt 18:13

De aanstaande Amerikaanse president Barack Obama wil op 5 punten de economie stimuleren.

Obama heeft zaterdag een gedetailleerde schets gegeven van zijn economische herstelplan. In zijn wekelijkse radio- en videospeech beschreef Obama vijf doelen, meldt nieuwszender CNN op zijn website.

Hij wil de productie van duurzame energie verdubbelen en publieke gebouwen energiezuiniger maken. Ook wil de nieuwe president wegen, bruggen en scholen die in slechte staat zijn, herbouwen.

Belasting omlaag
Verder wil Obama de zorg automatiseren. Daarnaast moeten klaslokalen, laboratoria en bibliotheken gemoderniseerd worden. Ten slotte moet de belasting voor Amerikaanse werknemers omlaag.

Met het plan, dat Obama het Amerikaanse Herstel- en Herinvesteringsplan noemt, wil de aanstaande president drie miljoen nieuwe banen creëren.

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Op zaterdag 3 januari 2009 18:49 schreef pberends het volgende:

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http://www.z24.nl/economi(...)_banen_scheppen.html

Vervolgrally maandag?

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Op zaterdag 3 januari 2009 22:26 schreef LXIV het volgende:

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Met halfzachte ideen die het goed doen bij de links-liberale politieke massa kun je geen economie herstellen. En Amerika heeft niet minder belastingen nodig maar meer.

Obama doet hetzelfde als Bush. Het probleem van teveel geld uitgeven hebben oplossen met het uitgeven van nog meer geld. Bush deed dat met oorlogen, Obama met leuke Groen-Linkse ideetjes.