Bulls, Bears & Bucks #50: Het uur van de waarheid

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Op maandag 1 december 2008 13:24 schreef Lemans24 het volgende:
Holiday Season als geheel zorgt voor 40% van de verkoop, meen ik ergens gelezen te hebben.

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Op maandag 1 december 2008 13:44 schreef pberends het volgende:

[..]

ohhhhhh

Das nog erg veel eigenlijk, dat betekent dat Amerikanen dus helemaal niet zoveel shoppen het rest van het jaar .

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My Own Private Bailout
Jordan Stein Nov 14, 2008 11:35 am

The author applies to become bank holding company.



Pick Stocks That Win

Call it Hurricane Louis.

Over the course of the last 8 years, designer handbags ceased to be the exclusive province of the wealthy: Tweens strutted up and down the aisles of American Eagle Outfitters (AEO), tightly clutching their very own Louis Vuitton handbags.

Maybe they got them for Christmas. Or their birthdays. Maybe 10 people went in on the gift, so that $1200 price tag is misleading. It's hardly the point.

So what is? The American consumer, the world's least disciplined, took a good, hard look at the increasingly conspicuous consumption of the well-to-do and decided they, too, wanted a piece of the action. Luxury goods became a mainstream pursuit.

Marketers got wise to this groundswell of entitlement. Las Vegas, once ground zero for swashbuckling motifs and Egyptian ambiance, made luxury its theme du jour. It used to be you could get a room in Sin City on the cheap; now, guests jockeyed for the AAA Five-Diamond service of Bellagio.

We've spent our way into this mess; now the government is determined to spend our way out. But why should troubled financial services companies like Goldman Sachs (GS) and Morgan Stanley (MS) have all the fun? I went to Vegas, ate at Nobu, partook of all kinds of activities I couldn't afford - I want to be rewarded for the gross mismanagement of my finances, too.

So I'm converting myself to a bank holding company.

It's a strategic move that will allow me to accept deposits, which is pretty cool (I'll have to award interest to my depositors, of course, but that will fluctuate according to how deep and how often the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, so I should be in the clear). But, more importantly, it will make me eligible for a piece of the $700 billion bailout.

The way I see it, all I have to do is prove that I made some really irresponsible decisions, that I failed to spot trends and get out ahead of emerging technology, that I basically continued to operate like I was permanently stuck in 2004, when cheap money padded everybody's bottom line - and that I never, ever, once considered the possibility that the good times wouldn't roll in perpetuity.

Here's a detailed ledger of the poor decision-making I plan to parlay into a healthy bailout, er, loan:



Instead of investing what little capital I had saved over the years, I bought cool Berluti boots (only $2400) for me and lots and lots of Stoli Vanilla and Cokes for girls who work in PR.


An apartment with a Sub-Zero fridge I totally can't afford. Like, not even close.


Five straight years of paying the minimum balance on 4 credit cards.


When the chef who used to cook at Blue Mountain Grill, which made the best $22 mac-n-cheese with truffle oil, went out on his own and opened Upstairs Lafayette 426, I just had to go. Cost notwithstanding, it was so worth it. I totally saw the cast of Gossip Girl munching on the signature bone-marrow bruschetta.
I'm confident the Federal Reserve will recognize the "emergency conditions" at play here -- along with the "unusual and exigent circumstances" of my situation -- and process my application posthaste, as it did with American Express (AXP).

That would be the same American Express that only days ago carried a dose of snob appeal: Its renowned Black Card boasts a limitless limit that gives traders and hedge-fund managers a special tingly feeling in their privates.

GMAC, the financial arm of embattled automaker General Motors (GM), which provides automotive financing and insurance, has also applied. Its parent company thought it would be way more awesome to keep manufacturing Hummers than embrace this kind-of-gay alternative energy thing, so it more than qualifies for a handout.

Since the criteria really seem to center on who screwed up most, I'm more than a little optimistic that the Fed will fast-track my application.

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Op maandag 1 december 2008 14:34 schreef simmu het volgende:
en nog gewoon een leuke:
[..]

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Op maandag 1 december 2008 16:37 schreef rvlaak_werk het volgende:
Ford weighs selling Volvo amid industry downturn

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Analist voorziet implosie Amerikaanse creditcards



01-12-2008 | Gepubliceerd 15:16
01-12-2008 | Laatst bijgewerkt 17:59

De Amerikaanse kerstverkopen gingen dit weekend voortvarend van start. Maar volgens topanalist Meredith Whitney krijgen Amerikanen de komende anderhalf jaar tweeduizend miljard dollar minder krediet op hun creditcards.

Het goede nieuws is dat Amerikanen in het eerste weekend in aanloop naar de kerst diep in de buidel hebben getast, zo meldde The Wall Street Journal maandag, op basis van de eerste gegevens over de kerstverkopen.

Volgens brancheorganisatie The National Retail Federation gaven Amerikanen die kerstinkopen deden afgelopen weekend, gemiddeld 372,57 dollar per persoon uit. Dat is 7,2 procent meer dan een jaar geleden.

De voorkeur ging duidelijk uit naar prijskrakers. Naar schatting ging het bij ruim tweederde van de aankopen om ultra-goedkope aanbiedingen, schatte America's Research Group.

Daarbij komt het slechte nieuws. Bijna 40 procent van de kopers gaf volgens peilingen van The National Retail Federation aan dat ze afgelopen weekend het grootste deel van de vakantie-inkopen hadden gedaan, tegen 36,4 procent in 2007.

Als die inschatting nauwkeurig is, belooft dat weinig goeds voor de rest van het kerstseizoen. Beleggers knepen 'm alvast, want maandagmiddag openden de beurzen op Wall Street duidelijk lager.

Naast de berichten over de kerstverkopen, speelde ook een rapport van steranalist Meredith Whitney van Oppenheimer & Co. een rol. Whitney maakte in 2007 naam als 'de vrouw van 15 miljard', toen ze in oktober van dat jaar aangaf dat financieel conglomeraat Citigroup miljarden extra zou moeten afschrijven op hypotheekbeleggingen in verband met de kredietcrisis.

Whitney stelde maandag in een nieuwe analyse dat er een scherpe terugval van de consumentenbestedingen in de Verenigde Staten zit aan te komen. In de komende anderhalve jaar zullen Amerikaanse creditcardmaatschappijen voor tweeduizend miljard dollar aan kredietlijnen terugtrekken, een krimp van 45 procent, zo voorspelt Whitney.

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Bernanke Says Fed May Buy Treasuries to Aid Economy

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said he has “obviously limited” room to lower interest rates further and may use less conventional policies, such as buying Treasury securities, to revive the economy.

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Debt monetization

Debt monetization occurs when a nation's central bank (e.g. the Federal Reserve in the United States) buys government bonds. [1] If a government's expenses exceed its tax revenue, if nothing is done the government will draw resources (capital) out of the private market. Since there is a limited amount of capital available in the market, there will be less available to fund business growth if the government takes out a substantial portion. If the debt is monetized, the capital is thereby returned to the private market.

Debt monetization can be seen as a flat tax because the ultimate result is that the government acquires additional funds and the currency decreases in value.

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Op maandag 1 december 2008 18:03 schreef Dave7 het volgende:

[..]

Iemand die hier het "gokje" waagt aandelen te kopen voor de bailout? Als het allemaal normaal verloopt zal ford aankomende week nog flink up gaan!

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Amerika blijkt al vanaf begin 2008 in recessie

RTL Z-beurscommentator Willem Middelkoop hamert er al jaren op: geloof de statistieken over de Amerikaanse economie nooit zomaar. En weer heeft Willem gelijk: Amerika blijkt toch al een jaar in recessie.

Krimp?
De Amerikaanse officiële cijfers geven momenteel nog steeds geen recessie in de economie aan, maar nu geeft het Nationale Bureau van Economisch Onderzoek (NBER), een onderzoeksbureau van de overheid dat de economische cycli in de gaten houdt, opeens toe dat de Amerikaanse economie al sinds het begin van het jaar in recessie is.

Stelselmatig
De statistieken in Amerika worden stelselmatig met terugwerkende kracht naar beneden bijgesteld. Structureel wordt bijvoorbeeld de arbeidsmarkt en de huizenmarkt te positief voorgesteld. Later volgt dan bij de definitieve cijfers vaak een enorme neerwaartse correctie. Die cijfers worden dan veel minder opgepakt dan de oorspronkelijke cijfers en hebben veel minder impact op het vertrouwen van consumenten en bedrijven.

Het hele jaar krimp
Volgens het NBER eindigde in december vorig jaar de economische groei. Daarna begon de economie te krimpen, waarmee een einde kwam aan 73 maanden economische expansie. De voorgaande groeiperiode in de jaren negentig duurde 120 maanden.

Definitieve cijfers
Het NBER baseert zijn oordeel onder meer op de definitieve banencijfers, detailhandelsdata en de industriële productiedata van het afgelopen jaar. Officieel is er sprake van een recessie na twee kwartalen van economische krimp, kwartaal op kwartaal. Amerika zit dus al een flinke tijd in een recessie.

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Op dinsdag 2 december 2008 06:56 schreef indahnesia.com het volgende:
Goh, toch al een recessie van een jaar bijna. Gelukkig komen deze cijfers nu al naar buiten en verdwijnen ze niet helemaal in de doofpot tot ze weer opgepoetst zijn.

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laatst gewijzigd: 02-12-2008 15:27

Fortis-top diep door het stof in de hel van Brussel



De aandeelhoudersvergadering van Fortis in Brussel verloopt nog veel rumoeriger dan die in Nederland. Voorgedragen bestuurder Bodson kan zijn tranen niet bedwingen.

Gevangenis
Vergeleken met de AVA in Brussel was die in Nederland maar een tamme bedoening. In de hel van Brussel gaan de Fortis-bestuurders de confontatie aan met woedende aandeelhouders. 'Naar de gevangenis' krijgt de Fortis-top te horen. Plaatsvervangend voorzitter Jan Michiel Hessels moest door de striemende fluitconcerten soms stoppen met zijn toespraak.

Metaaldetector
De omstandigheden zijn dusdanig dat er strenge veiligheidsmaatregelen zijn genomen. Aandeelhouders moeten door een metaaldetector.

Weg oude dag
Vele duizenden kleine aandeelhouders zijn hun spaarcenten kwijt. Fortis was in België een volksaandeel, meer nog, een huisvaderaandeel, oftewel een weduwen- en wezenfonds, vergelijkbaar met Koninklijke Olie in Nederland.

Stemmen
Volgens Fortis zijn dinsdag 5.524 aandeelhouders aanwezig op de vergadering. Er hadden zich zesduizend Fortis-beleggers aangemeld. De Belgische aandeelhouders kunnen dinsdag, net als de Nederlanders maandag, stemmen over de bestuursleden die Fortis naar voren heeft geschoven.

Nipte meerderheid
Maandag kregen drie van de vijf bestuursleden een nipte meerderheid van de stemmen, namelijk Etienne Davignon, Cheung Chi Yan en Karel de Boeck. Ook dinsdag moeten zij alle drie een meerderheid van de stemmen halen, wil het bestuur in deze vorm doorgaan.

Alternatieven
De Belgische tegenhanger van de Vereniging van Effectenbezitters (VEB), Deminor, vroeg tijdens de vergadering of er gestemd kan worden op een alternatieve lijst met bestuurders. De belangenvereniging kreeg veel applaus uit de zaal. Het antwoord van vice-voorzitter Jan-Michiel Hessels was echter duidelijk: ,,Nee." In dit alternatieve bestuur zou Georges Ugeux voorzitter orden, een bedrijfsadviseur die voor het laatst werkzaam was bij de New York Stock Exchange.

Nieuwe vergadering
Dinsdag kan niet worden gestemd over de continuïteit van Fortis. Hiervoor zijn niet genoeg leden aanwezig bij de vergadering. Op 19 december is nu nog een bijzondere aandeelhoudersvergadering gepland.

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Mortgage Security Holder Stands-Up - Could Cost BofA $80 Billion

Just a few months after the Attorneys General of 15 states threw hundreds of thousands of Countrywide/Bank of America mortgagees under the bus with a piddly $8.4 billion settlement, someone is striking back. And Greenwich has the size, background and relationships to actually get somewhere.

In all of the recent events surrounding bailouts and loan modifications, one very prominent party in this whole mess has been missing - the mortgage security (MBS) holders. Not any longer. With $7 trillion in securitized mortgages out there, this could be the very first of a major story unfolding over the next year. One in which the MBS holders finally stand up and banks, investment banks and mortgage lenders become ultimately responsible for the loans that they made and eat their own trash.

Securitization massively expanded home ownership in recent years by allowing investors to price the risk of less credit-worthy borrowers. But investors in some of the prime securities are angry about having to foot the bill for reworking the most risky mortgages. The chief risk manager for a mortgage investment company, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said that BofA isn’t paying for the modifications out of its own pocket, but “out of the bondholders’ money. That’s pretty egregious

The legality of that structure—and the impact of any changes on bondholders—weren’t the top priorities of the attorneys general of California, Illinois, and at least five other states that last summer filed lawsuits accusing Countrywide of violating laws against predatory lending. Their complaints allege that Countrywide engaged in many deceptive sales practices, charged unlawful fees and interest rates, and made mortgage loans that Countrywide had no reasonable basis to think the borrowers could afford. All of that, the states claimed, was in violation of predatory lending laws.

Bank of America/Countrywide Slap on the Hand

The AG’s say their $8.4 billion ‘victory’ will help some 400k homeowners. When you do the math, the measly $21k per homeowner is barely enough to cover a few months back payments, penalties, modification fees and unpaid property taxes. How the AG’s could settle for something this small claiming ‘victory’ is beyond me. In CA where much of this ‘relief’ will go, the median home price is down from $484k in the summer of 2007 to $278k today. That is a lot of negative equity of which none was factored into this settlement.

I have been waiting for backlash over this Bank of America hand slap from either a mortgagee rights or securities owners group with all of the talk by the banks, regulators and lawmakers of a full court mortgage modification press and here it is. This is the first of what could be many. Remember, 80%+ of all mortgage loans originated during the ‘fake years’ were sold and securitized making it very difficult for a bank, servicer or even the FDIC to modify the loan.

Wide-Scale Mortgage Modification Efforts Impotent

As of now wide-scale mortgage modification efforts are more talk than reality because of the securitization challenges, borrowers ability to qualify, prohibitive present house values and borrowers willingness to stay leveraged to a massively depreciating asset vs. renting. American Banker recently put out a story highlighting that this issue. Other reports show that the after-modification recidivism rate is well over 50%. This is a lose/lose for MBS holders.

“For the most part, public discussion of modifications has focused on the ability and willingness of servicers and investors to make them. For several reasons, including the still undeveloped track record for modifications, less attention has been paid to the outcomes of those that have gotten done.

A handful of analysts and academics who have studied which types of loan modifications work have found that some of the most common changes — reducing or freezing the interest rate and allowing missed payments to be rolled into the balance — often fail to prevent the borrower from defaulting again. “

I have been one of the most outspoken mortgage modification supporters for over a year, but ONLY if done right. The problem is that none announced to date are structured properly with most relying on low teaser rates, 40-year terms or deferred interest and high debt-to-income ratios, which are the very things that got us here in the first place.

I am in firm belief that the only successful mortgage modification is one where the loan is re-underwritten / restructured using a market-rate 30-year fixed mortgage at 28/36% debt-to-income ratios. To get there, a principal balance reduction will likely be necessary in most cases. But the process will allow home-owners to operate at leverage ratios that greatly reduce the chances of walking away due to negative-equity permanently solving the problem. Please see my most recent report on mortgage modifications:

* The Great Mortgage Modification Pump - GOD SAVE US ALL! (248)

Bank of America / Countrywide Could Pay $80 BILLION!

Greenwich Financial Services, a very large fund that has been a leader in the mortgage securitization arena is raising a stink - don’t they deserve a bailout too? Why should the banks get bailed out from all of their bad decisions over the past decade and the mortgage securities holders that never signed up for buying a bunch of bad loans, get left holding the bag? They may not if Greenwich is successful.

In the proposed class action, or group lawsuit, the Greenwich, Connecticut-based fund demands a declaration that “Countrywide must purchase at par every mortgage loan that it sold to any of the 374 securitization trusts,” David Grais, a lawyer for the fund said today in an e-mailed statement. Grais said Countrywide could owe $80 billion to the trusts.

Countrywide plans not to absorb the $8.4 billion reduction in mortgage payments itself, even though it was Countrywide’s own conduct of which the attorneys general complained,” the fund said in the complaint filed today in New York State Supreme Court in Manhattan. Under the settlement, the mortgage lender would “pass most or all of that reduction on to the trusts that purchased mortgage loans from Countrywide,” the fund said in the complaint.

“We believe that the average unpaid principal balance of these loans is approximately $200,000. If so, and if the court grants the declaration we seek in this complaint, then Countrywide (and its parent Bank of America) would be liable to pay the trusts approximately $80 billion for the loans it modifies,” he said.

MBS Holders Have Been Left in the Lurch

The mortgage securities holders being left to fend for themselves over the past year and a half of the mortgage implosion is one of the reasons that the private label sector has never come back. If left going the way it presently is, the mortgage finance and housing sectors may stay depressed indefinitely.

While those loan adjustments may help to keep struggling borrowers in their homes today, Frey says those alterations run the risk of permanently damaging the secondary market for housing finance.

“I am an advocate for investors’ contractual rights,” says Frey, 50, in an interview. He has publicly argued since March that loan modifications (BusinessWeek, 11/26/08) are against contract law, and has threatened to sue banks—despite, he says, receiving pressure to back down from Washington. “Investors’ voices have been muted in this debate because they speak of an inconvenient truth: Current solutions sacrifice the long-term viability of this nation’s housing finance system for short-term political gain. No matter how noble the intent, it is not in the interest of the United States now, or in the future, to tell its citizens and the world at large that U.S. contract rights may be bent with the political winds.”

MBS Litigation Floodgates

If Greenwich has even reasonable success it will open the litigation floodgates. The end result could look like something that I have been noodling for a couple of years…that in the end the bank, investment bank, lender etc eats their own trash.

Frey says a more reasonable, albeit unpopular, solution would be for the government—that is, taxpayers—to ante up another $500 billion to buy all of the troubled loans from mortgage-backed securities pools in order to keep the public market for financing mortgages viable. (There have been roughly $7 trillion in mortgages financed by global public markets since 2002, according to ThomsonReuters. Of course, not all of those loans are troubled.)

While he’s so far the only member of the proposed class against the Charlotte (N.C.)-based BofA, Frey says he’s on a crusade on behalf of all large investors who bought Triple A-rated mortgage bonds, and not just those who bought bonds backed by Countrywide mortgages. The suit alleges that modifications favor bondholders who bought the riskiest pieces. Normally those investors should suffer losses first, but that’s not what’s happening in the current wave of workouts, according to the suit.

Stay tuned because this story is only getting started.

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Op dinsdag 2 december 2008 16:23 schreef pberends het volgende:

[..]

http://www.rtl.nl/compone(...)fortis.avi_plain.xml
http://www.rtl.nl/(/finan(...)de_fortis_topman.xml

Een van de Fortis-topmannen moest zelfs huilen.

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Op dinsdag 2 december 2008 16:23 schreef pberends het volgende:
Een van de Fortis-topmannen moest zelfs huilen.

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Op dinsdag 2 december 2008 16:34 schreef Lemmeb het volgende:

[..]

Het hele gebeuren is in wezen ook dieptriest. Families die hun volledige familiefortuin zien verdampen, bejaarden die hun complete oudedagsvoorziening in rook op zien gaan. Vooral dat laatste.

Het is dat het Belgen zijn, en we er dus om kunnen lachen. Anders zou ik een inzamelingsactie starten: "Help onze senioeren de winter door!"

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Op dinsdag 2 december 2008 17:53 schreef pberends het volgende:

[..]

Erg hard inderdaad. Maar je vraagt je af waarom ze de oude beurswijsheid SPREIDEN nooit begrepen hebben .

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Op dinsdag 2 december 2008 17:53 schreef pberends het volgende:

[..]

Erg hard inderdaad. Maar je vraagt je af waarom ze de oude beurswijsheid SPREIDEN nooit begrepen hebben .

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Op dinsdag 2 december 2008 18:16 schreef Lemmeb het volgende:

[..]

Blijkbaar niet. Deze mensen hadden ook eigenlijk niet moeten gaan beleggen, maar dachten zich er makkelijk vanaf te maken door alleen Fortis te kopen. Dat zat toch wel goed, was de redenatie.

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Op dinsdag 2 december 2008 19:06 schreef pberends het volgende:
RTL Video: Chaos bij Fortis lijkt compleet

Ah, dit mis je toch wel op het Damrak.

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Op dinsdag 2 december 2008 19:06 schreef pberends het volgende:
RTL Video: Chaos bij Fortis lijkt compleet

Ah, dit mis je toch wel op het Damrak.

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Telegraaf pakt vutters en gepensioneerden hun gratis krantje af

De Telegraaf Media Groep pakt vutters en de gepensioneerden van het mediabedrijf hun gratis krantje af. Dit blijkt uit een brief van TMG die in handen is van RTLZ.

Gepensioneerd
Tussen de 1500 en 1600 vut- en pensioengerechtigde oud-medewerkers van TMG krijgen nog altijd gratis een krant van het mediaconcern. Het gaat dan om De Telegraaf zelf, of een regionale krant van het bedrijf.

Hieraan komt met ingang van begin volgend jaar een einde, zo schrijft de raad van bestuur van het bedrijf in de brief aan het oud-personeel.

Redenen
TMG voert twee redenen aan voor de stap. Zo zou de fiscus het bedrijf enige tijd geleden hebben laten weten dat belasting moet worden betaald voor het verstrekken van een gratis krant aan ex-personeel.

"Hiermee zijn de kosten dusdanig gestegen dat instandhouding van de regeling niet langer reëel is", zo schrijft het bestuur van TMG.

Recessie
Een tweede reden wordt gevormd door de financieel-economische omstandigheden waarin TMG zich bevindt. Die dwingen het bedrijf tot allerlei ingrijpende en minder ingrijpende maatregelen. "Helaas is het stopzetten van de gratis abonnementen hier één van."

Sanering
Eerder kondigde TMG de verkoop aan van de tijdschriftendivisie. Daarmee verdwijnen 351 voltijdbanen. Nog eens 500 voltijdbanen worden geschrapt bij andere onderdelen van TMG, waarvan zo'n 150 op de verschillende krantenredacties.

Alternatief
Eind december valt het laatste gratis krantje bij de vutters en gepensioneerden op de mat. TMG zegt de mogelijkheden te onderzoeken "op welke wijze het oud-medewerkers tegemoet kan komen met een passend alternatief".

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Op dinsdag 2 december 2008 19:06 schreef pberends het volgende:
RTL Video: Chaos bij Fortis lijkt compleet

Ah, dit mis je toch wel op het Damrak.

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Op dinsdag 2 december 2008 19:37 schreef LXIV het volgende:
Nah, dat ben ik niet helemaal met je eens. Niet iedereen (=bijna niemand) kon inzien wat de consequenties van deze overname in combinatie met de credietcrisis zou betekenen. Zelfs het bestuur van Fortis zelf niet! Dus om nu die aandeelhouders de schuld te geven.

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Op dinsdag 2 december 2008 20:22 schreef LXIV het volgende:
90% van de beleggers heeft helemaal geen sjoegge van wat zo'n overname nu precies inhoud en of hij duur of goedkoop was. Zelfs voor iemand die economisch heel goed onderlegd is valt zoiets moeilijk te berekenen.

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Op dinsdag 2 december 2008 20:25 schreef SeLang het volgende:

[..]

Als je er geen verstand van hebt dan moet je er niet in beleggen.

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Op dinsdag 2 december 2008 20:35 schreef Lemmeb het volgende:

[..]

Nou, doek dan die hele aandelenmarkt maar op.

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Automakers post steep sales declines
Drops of at least 30% rattle all major manufactures

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Ford Motor Co. and General Motors Corp. on Tuesday posted harsh declines in November U.S. vehicle sales, which served as timely reminders of the brutal climate as their top executives head to Capitol Hill in hopes of gaining access to $25 billion in loans. Toyota Motor Corp. and Honda Motor Co., clearly no longer immune to the headwinds that have slammed the domestic manufacturers, posted even steeper declines, down more than 31% each.

At the same time, Ford, the first of the domestic automakers to make a second pitch for a federal lifeline, laid out plans to Congress to return to profitability by 2011. General Motors Corp. and Chrysler LLC will hand in their plans for survival later in the day. "The global economic crisis and credit freeze have had a very negative impact on the vehicle market, which runs on consumer confidence and available financing," said Mark LaNeve, head of GM's sales and marketing division. "The consumer is scared and sitting on the sideline. We need appropriate economic stimulus to get the consumer back in the game."

As for Ford's monthly tally, November U.S. sales fell to 123,222 cars and trucks from 177,485 a year ago as the weak economy dampened consumers' appetite for new cars. Ford, Lincoln and Mercury combined car sales fell 31.5% to 37,272 units while truck sales slumped 29% to 81,546 units with sales of the flagship F-Series pickup down 18.6% to 37,911. Volvo sales tumbled 46.5% to 4,404 vehicles. Ford said it's considering the sale of its lone remaining European brand as part of its revival.

"Despite some positive news on retail sales as a whole and the beginning of the holiday shopping season, the automotive sector seems to be really continuing under a lot of pressure because our customers are just under so much pressure right now," Jim Farley, head of Ford's marketing and communications team, said in a conference call. Ford also said it plans to produce 430,000 vehicles in the first quarter of 2009, down from the 692,000 it produced a year earlier. "We believe the economy will continue to weaken in 2009," Farley said. "Our near-term production plan reflects this view, as we continue to align capacity with customer demand."

Separately, GM took the biggest hit of all, with a 41.3% drop to 153,404 vehicles from 261,273 a year ago. Chevrolet was the best of the worst in terms of brands, but still turned in a 36.9% decline to 95,756 vehicles. Hummer sales dropped the most, down 63.9% to 1,454 vehicles from a year ago. GM also slashed its production to 600,000 cars and trucks in the first quarter, down about 32% from a year ago. Fourth-quarter production was targeted to come in at 835,000, down about 20% from last year.

Toyota, the second-biggest car seller in the U.S. behind GM, outsold Ford during November, but not by much. The company said its U.S. November sales fell 33.9% to 130,307 vehicles from 197,189 a year ago. Passenger car sales dropped 32.3% to 76,954 units from 113,641 last year, and Toyota light truck sales fell 36.1% to 53,353 units from 83,548 last year. Sales of the Prius, Toyota's one-time hot-selling hybrid, dropped 48.3% to 8,660 vehicles from 16,737 last year as gas prices fell hard from record highs.

Honda reported a sales decline of 1.6% to 76,233 vehicles from 111,431 a year ago. Honda brand sales slid 30.6% to 68,345 units while Acura division sales tumbled 38.9% to 7,888. Only the Pilot model showed an increase in sales, rising 4.5% to 5,601.

Automakers boosted incentive spending by 15.2% from a year ago to $2,625 per vehicle, but that represents a slight decline from October, according to Edmunds.com. "All three domestic automakers lowered their incentive spending this month, seeking to preserve cash during these incredibly tough times," Edmunds.com analyst Jesse Toprak said. "Meanwhile, the imports have poured more money into incentives, attempting to seize the opportunity to gain market share."

He added that Toyota's spending hit a new record high in November and that the company's market share might follow suit. Still, domestic manufacturers spent $3,451 per vehicle sold, on average, while Japanese automakers spent $1,686. The industry as a whole spent about $2.2 billion in sales promotions, with the Detroit trio making up 60.9% of the total. Toyota, Nissan and Honda comprised 25.3%. The car-buying research Web site also said that the steep plunge in gas prices has allowed manufacturers to back away from heavy incentives on big SUVs and trucks.

quote:

Staples net plunges as customers tighten spending

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Staples Inc., the largest U.S. office supplies chain, said Tuesday that its third-quarter profit dropped 43%, hurt by customers cutting back on the purchases of furniture, computers and business machines. Net income fell to $156.7 million, or 22 cents a share, from $274.5 million, or 38 cents a share, a year earlier, when it had a $38 million lawsuit settlement charge. Sales in the quarter, which ended Nov. 1, increased 34% to $6.95 billion but would have declined 3% to $5 billion, excluding the effect of the Corporate Express acquisition this year.

Not counting costs related to the acquisition of Corporate Express, profit would have been 42 cents a share, Staples said. On that basis, the company exceeded the 41 cents average estimate of analysts surveyed by FactSet. Staples shares rose 5.1% to $15.89 in mid-afternoon trading.

The worsening economy both in the U.S. and Europe have led both Staples' business and retail customers to postpone purchases that are deemed not urgent. Average order size has declined along with store traffic, the company said. Staples, however, has opportunities to gain share from its smaller and weaker rivals Office Depot Inc. and OfficeMax Inc., analysts said. "Trends are really challenging right now," said Joe Feldman, an analyst at Telsey Advisory Group. "Businesses are just not spending as much. They spend on as needed basis. This is a very direct and honest management. They are operating as well as they can in this environment."
(...)

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Op dinsdag 2 december 2008 20:43 schreef SeLang het volgende:

[..]

Nou ja, iedereen mag natuurlijk beleggen waarin hij wil, maar je moet wel zelf de consequenties dragen als het mis gaat. Dus niet het type gedrag als op die Fortis aandeelhouders vergadering.

quote:

JPMorgan's Highbridge investors seek withdrawal: report

(Reuters) - JPMorgan Chase & Co is set to miss out on hundreds of millions of dollars in fees as Highbridge Capital Management's investors have asked to withdraw 36 percent of the assets from its flagship fund, the Wall Street Journal reported.

Highbridge Capital, which helped its owner JPMorgan Chase become one of the biggest hedge-fund managers in the world, has shrunk considerably this year and now many investors want out, the paper said.

The exodus, combined with investment losses, could reduce the once-$15 billion fund to $6 billion, the paper said citing people familiar with the fund.

To get investors to stay, Highbridge is offering reduced fees and other incentives, and clients who have asked to pull money won't get it all back immediately, the paper said.

To avoid a forced sale of assets in a weak market, Highbridge will first dole out 30 percent of the withdrawals in cash and investors will have to wait a year or more for the rest, the paper said citing people familiar with the terms.

The turmoil in the convertible-bond market, one of Highbridge's primary areas of focus, has contributed to a roughly 25 percent performance decline in the firm's biggest multistrategy fund this year, the paper said.

In 2006, the multistrategy fund gained about 23 percent and finished the year with roughly $9 billion, generating more than $500 million in fees for Highbridge, and about $160 million of that went to JPMorgan, the paper said, citing a person familiar with the fund.

JPMorgan owns about 75 percent of Highbridge. The bank first bought a controlling stake in the hedge-fund firm in September 2004 for more than $1 billion, the paper said.

quote:

Goldman shares fall as analysts see bigger loss

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Goldman Sachs Group Inc (GS.N) shares fell Tuesday on speculation the bank's fourth-quarter loss could be much larger than expected -- more than $2.5 billion -- fueled by the plunging value of many Goldman investments.

The shares fell as much as 6 percent, rose briefly in volatile trading, then settled at $64.78, off 1.5 percent. They are down 70 percent this year.

For the past month, Goldman has been widely expected to post its first quarterly loss since going public in 1999. But poor market conditions got even worse last month as the U.S. Treasury abandoned its proposal to buy hard-to-trade mortgage securities and other debt from hard-hit banks.

Atlantic Equities analyst Richard Staite on Tuesday widened his loss forecast for Goldman to $4.65 a share, or $2.3 billion, for the fiscal fourth quarter ended November 28. Staite forecast that falling equity and debt values will trigger more than $9 billion of writedowns.

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Op dinsdag 2 december 2008 20:10 schreef Lemmeb het volgende:
Kreeg die wel d'r geld terug?

quote:

Op dinsdag 2 december 2008 20:11 schreef Lemmeb het volgende:

[..]

Hier staan een paar nog veel leukere filmpjes :
http://deredactie.be/cm/de.redactie/economie/081202_Fortis_Heizel

quote:

Op dinsdag 2 december 2008 20:43 schreef SeLang het volgende:

[..]

Nou ja, iedereen mag natuurlijk beleggen waarin hij wil, maar je moet wel zelf de consequenties dragen als het mis gaat. Dus niet het type gedrag als op die Fortis aandeelhouders vergadering.

quote:

Fed Signals More Action as Slump Drags On
Recession Began a Year Ago, Making It Longest Since Early '80s, Panel Says; Bernanke Considers Rate Cuts, Bond Purchases

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke laid out new steps the Fed might take to lift the economy, as the panel that monitors the U.S. business cycle said the nation has been in recession for a year -- the longest downturn in a quarter century.

The National Bureau of Economic Research said Monday that America entered recession in December 2007. Mr. Bernanke flagged the likelihood of further relief for the sagging economy at a speech in Austin, Texas.

More reductions in short-term interest rates are "certainly feasible," Mr. Bernanke said. But with the Fed's benchmark rate already at 1%, more cuts would bring the rate to near zero, prompting concern that the Fed would be out of recession-fighting ammunition. Mr. Bernanke sought to emphasize other steps the Fed might take to spur the economy.

Those steps could include an unusual attempt to bring down long-term interest rates by purchasing Treasury notes and bonds, something the Fed hasn't done since the early 1950s. Lower long-term rates would help bring down mortgage costs and other borrowing costs for businesses and individuals.



A flurry of bearish news, including a decline in a key manufacturing-activity index, helped push the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 679.95 points Monday, or 7.7%, wiping out about half of last week's gains. It was the 12th-biggest single-day percentage drop and the fourth-sharpest point drop since the Dow was created in 1896.

Mr. Bernanke's comments helped stir more buying of longer-term Treasury bonds, to which investors already had been fleeing. The yield of the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, already at its lowest level in more than 31 years, fell further, to 2.719%.

The onslaught of troubling economic news also raises the chances that Democrats will push for a stimulus package during a lame-duck session of Congress this month, and make it more likely that President-elect Barack Obama will increase the size of the government-spending program he is designing. After the November election, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said she favored a stimulus package of between $60 billion and $100 billion this year, followed by another round of spending next year.

"Economic activity appears to have downshifted in the wake of the deterioration in financial conditions in September," Mr. Bernanke said in his speech. He pointed to a litany of soft spots: in the job market, household finances, exports and financial markets.

The news is not all dire. The unemployment rate, at 6.5%, is rising but still well shy of its 7.8% level after the 1990-91 recession or the double-digit levels of the early 1980s. Mr. Bernanke also noted that falling oil prices have been a relief to households. But even that bright spot is related to the weak economy, since the global downturn is sapping demand for energy.

Once financial markets manage to improve, the Fed chairman warned, "economic conditions will probably remain weak for a time."

Rule of Thumb
The conventional rule of thumb is that a recession is two consecutive quarters in which the nation's gross domestic product contracts. The NBER, however, doesn't follow that formula. To pinpoint broad declines in activity, it considers a wide range of indicators in addition to overall economic output -- including payroll employment, industrial production, inflation-adjusted income and business sales activity.

"Many of these indicators, including monthly data on the largest component of GDP, consumption, have declined sharply in recent months," the NBER said in a statement.
[Ben Bernanke] Kelly West/Austin American-Statesman

At 12 months and counting, the downturn is already longer than the last two recessions in 2001 and 1990-91, both of which lasted eight months. If the current cycle persists past April, it would be the longest recession since the Great Depression. Downturns in the 1980s and 1970s lasted 16 months each.
'Fairly Bleak'

"The economic outlook looks fairly bleak," said Harvard professor Jeffrey Frankel, who serves on the NBER's recession-dating committee, but said he wasn't speaking for the committee. "Forecasts that the trough would be sometime in the middle of next year don't strike me as especially pessimistic given the current situation."

In November, economists surveyed by WSJ.com projected the recession would persist through the first quarter of 2009.

U.S. GDP declined slightly in the fourth quarter of 2007 and third quarter of this year -- but increases in between have complicated the NBER committee's decisions. A separate measure of output, known as gross domestic income, peaked in last year's third quarter but also fluctuated until this year's third-quarter decline.

The NBER committee focused primarily on employment, as it did in 2001, to pinpoint the recession's starting month. The expansion that followed the 2001 recession lasted 73 months, the NBER said, making it the shortest expansion in a quarter century. That expansion ended in December 2007, when U.S. payrolls peaked; they have been declining at an accelerating pace throughout this year.

"We wait until we're sure that it is a recession," said Stanford economist Robert Hall, chair of the NBER recession-dating committee. Mr. Hall said the committee looks for "the depth, duration and dispersion" of the downturn before making a call.

Severe Downturn
New data underscored the severity of the current downturn. The Institute for Supply Management's November manufacturing index, released Monday, fell to its lowest level since 1982. The ISM's new orders index -- a forward-looking indicator -- hit its lowest level since 1980, reaching 27.9 from 32.2 in October. That measure has fallen below 30 only three times in 60 years.

Meanwhile, construction spending posted a steeper-than-expected drop in October, according to government figures. The November employment report, due for release Friday, is expected to show nonfarm payrolls dropped in excess of 300,000 with a further increase in the unemployment rate.

Mr. Bernanke's comments set the stage for an important meeting of Fed policy makers in two weeks. The Fed's main lever to help an ailing economy -- short-term interest rates -- has already been pulled about as far as it can go.

Pushing down long-term interest rates could spur business and consumer demand, Mr. Bernanke said. Many consumer and business loans are closely linked to longer-term Treasury yields.

During the 1940s, the Fed maintained a ceiling on long-term government bond yields at around 2.5%. It created ceilings on other government debt as well.

It could bring down long-term rates now by purchasing Treasury bonds itself. A central bank has the capacity to effectively print money by injecting reserves into the banking system and could use the funds to buy securities like bonds. In normal times, this would be highly inflationary. But Mr. Bernanke noted that the recession is putting downward pressure on inflation now, which gives him flexibility to keep pressing with new measures to battle the recession. He also said the Fed would unwind its programs when the economy stabilizes, to help guard against inflation.

The Fed has already taken a big step toward targeting long-term interest rates. Last week, it said it would buy up to $600 billion in debt issued or guaranteed by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Ginnie Mae and Federal Home Loan Banks, all mortgage businesses with close tied to the government.

Yields on debt tied to these firms have come down, a development that Mr. Bernanke said he found encouraging because it has helped to rein in mortgage rates.

Impact on Interest Rates
Some Wall Street economists have argued that the Fed might also commit to keep short-term interest rates low for an extended period of time, something the central bank did in 2003 when it was worried about the weak economy.

Such a move in theory could also bring down long-term interest rates. But Mr. Bernanke didn't raise it as an option in his speech. Some economists believe the move by the Fed in 2003 backfired and helped to spur the credit boom that is now unwinding.

The Treasury Department could also take new steps. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal that he is "working really hard" to implement existing initiatives and develop new ones. Congress has authorized the Treasury to invest up to $700 billion to bolster financial institutions. Mr. Paulson has put nearly half of that sum to work.

The NBER makes judgments only on recessions and expansions in the U.S., but much of the rest of the global economy is in recession by other standards. The 15-nation euro zone, whose economy is second in size only to the U.S.'s, contracted in both the second and third quarters -- two-straight quarters of decline being the traditional definition of recession.

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Op dinsdag 2 december 2008 21:03 schreef pberends het volgende:

[..]

Beleg iig in meerdere bedrijven ipv je 50k spaargeld ofzo in 1 fonds te stoppen.

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Op dinsdag 2 december 2008 21:08 schreef Lemmeb het volgende:

[..]

50k is imho eigenlijk te weinig om (actief) mee te beleggen.

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Op dinsdag 2 december 2008 21:18 schreef pberends het volgende:

[..]

Wacht op een recessie, ga in aandelen, wacht op hoogconjunctuur en cashen.

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Op dinsdag 2 december 2008 21:19 schreef Lemmeb het volgende:

[..]

Als je dan ook nog eens goed gaat spreiden, dan betaal je je toch helemaal blauw aan transactiekosten?

quote:

Op dinsdag 2 december 2008 21:20 schreef pberends het volgende:

[..]

Als je spreid over 5 fondsen ben je bij aan en verkoop in totaal 100 euro kwijt.

Das niet erg veel als je minstens 100% rendement kan halen in recessie versus hoogconjunctuur-beurstijden.

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Op dinsdag 2 december 2008 21:22 schreef Lemmeb het volgende:

[..]

Nee, da's niet veel. Maar 5 fondsen, is dat een goede spreiding? Als er één slecht presteert en één helemaal over de kop gaat, ben je al je winst al kwijt.

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Op dinsdag 2 december 2008 19:37 schreef LXIV het volgende:
Nah, dat ben ik niet helemaal met je eens. Niet iedereen (=bijna niemand) kon inzien wat de consequenties van deze overname in combinatie met de credietcrisis zou betekenen. Zelfs het bestuur van Fortis zelf niet! Dus om nu die aandeelhouders de schuld te geven.

Mensen moet wel inzien dat beleggen risico's met zich meebrengt, en dat je dus kunt verliezen. Zeker wanneer je niet goed spreid.

Mensen die nu nog tegen een tophypotheek een huis kopen, die zijn veel onverantwoordelijker bezig! Want er zijn nu toch voldoende mensen die roepen dat ze dit vooral niet moeten doen, en genoeg indicatoren die ook voor een leek duidelijk moeten zijn, dat de markt omlaag komt. En toch koopen mensen. En toch zullen die over vijf jaar janken om compensatie. Sterker nog, er wordt nú al gejankt om overheidsmaatregelen, terwijl dezelfde organisatie een dag later beweert dat er überhaubt geen problemen zijn!

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Op woensdag 3 december 2008 12:34 schreef HiZ het volgende:

[..]

Niemand kon het voorzien? Ik ben alleszins een amateur op dit gebied, maar ik vroeg me op het moment van de deal al af hoe Fortis in godsnaam onder de heersende omstandigheden aan het geld moest komen om die deal te financieren. En dat was toen het hele zaakje alleen nog maar een beetje was gaan stinken, dus voordat de ellende echt goed losbarstte. Mag je dan verwachten van 'experts' dat ze het ook een beetje doorhebben?

quote:

Over je pleidooi tegen top-hypotheken; dat roep ik al 20 jaar. Elke schuld is een liability, ook een hypotheekschuld. En als het minder gaat wordt zo'n schuld een molensteen om je nek. Vandaar dus dat ik mijn uiterste best doe om mijn hypotheekschuld zo laag mogelijk te houden. Mijn hypotheek ligt nu onder de 20% van het aankoopbedrag van mijn huis, en als het volgens planning blijft lopen, dan is ie over maximaal 5 jaar helemaal afbetaald. Die fijne 'hypotheekrente-aftrek' (ik noem het subsidie voor de banken) hoef ik dan niet meer.

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Op woensdag 3 december 2008 13:46 schreef Lemmeb het volgende:
Niks mis met een vadsig hoge hypotheek, zolang je er maar wel voor zorgt dat je een laag rentepercentage daarover betaalt en reserves hebt om een eventueel waardeverlies van het onderpand af te dekken. Dan kan het een stuk goedkoper zijn dan huren, ook nu nog.

quote:

Op woensdag 3 december 2008 13:46 schreef Lemmeb het volgende:
Niks mis met een vadsig hoge hypotheek, zolang je er maar wel voor zorgt dat je een laag rentepercentage daarover betaalt en reserves hebt om een eventueel waardeverlies van het onderpand af te dekken. Dan kan het een stuk goedkoper zijn dan huren, ook nu nog.

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Op woensdag 3 december 2008 13:57 schreef rvlaak_werk het volgende:

[..]

Dus als de rente in ene flink verhoogd wordt, ga je ook niet lopen janken dat het zo duur is geworden?

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Op woensdag 3 december 2008 14:39 schreef Lemmeb het volgende:

[..]

Uiteraard moet je wel goed op blijven letten en je rente vastzetten voor een langere periode op het moment dat deze erg laag is (2 jaar geleden).

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Op woensdag 3 december 2008 14:42 schreef rvlaak_werk het volgende:

[..]

Dan is er idd weinig aan de hand. Je blijft natuurlijk een risico lopen aan het einde van je looptijd, maar goed. Als je niet gaat lopen janken Good on you.

quote:

Dec. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. will
report fourth-quarter losses after securities markets deteriorated and
hedging strategies backfired, analysts at JPMorgan Chase & Co. and
Merrill Lynch & Co. said.

Morgan Stanley will post a 46 cents-a-share loss, and Goldman a $5.18-
a-share loss, JPMorgan analyst Kenneth B. Worthington wrote in a
research note today. Morgan Stanley will report a 35 cents-a-share
loss, and Goldman Sachs a $2.97 loss, Merrill Lynch’s Guy Moszkowski
said in a report today. Both had analysts had previously forecast that
Morgan Stanley would post a profit for the period, while Goldman would
report a smaller loss.

Goldman may write down the value of its private equity investments by
$4 billion after global equity markets tumbled, Worthington wrote. A
decline in credit and mortgage products in November will force Morgan
Stanley to post a loss for the quarter, Moszkowski wrote. Morgan
Stanley may be shielded from further losses because its private equity
and proprietary trading operations are smaller than Goldman’s, he
added.

“We continue to suggest investors avoid the sector as estimates
continue to fall and writedowns persist,” Worthington said. “However,
we expect Goldman will outperform longer-term due to a superior
culture and ability to alter its business mix.”

Cost reductions will also limit losses, Moszkowski said. Goldman’s
total compensation is likely to drop 43 percent from last year, while
Morgan Stanley will cut overall pay by 35 percent compared with last
year. Both Goldman and Morgan Stanley are based in New York.

quote:

U.S. Nov. ISM services falls to all-time-low 37.3%

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Nonmanufacturing sectors of the U.S. economy contracted at a record pace during November, the Institute for Supply Management reported Wednesday. The ISM nonmanufacturing index fell to 37.3% from 44.4% in October. The decline was broad-based with 17 out of 18 industries reported contraction The decline was larger than expected. Economists were looking the index to fall to 42.7%. The major sub-indexes also set record lows. The business activity index fell to 33.0% in November from 44.2% in the previous month. New orders fell to 35.4% from 41.5%. The employment index fell to 31.3% from 41.5%. Inflation pressures eased. The price index plunged to 36.6% from 53.4% in the previous month.