Bulls, Bears & Bucks #22: Fed laat rente ongewijzigd

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The latest sightings:

Money market rates doubled overnight: despite considerable central bank intervention:

The cost of borrowing in dollars overnight more than doubled as banks hoarded cash amid speculation more financial institutions will fail.

The overnight dollar rate soared 333 basis points to 6.44 percent today, its biggest jump, according to the British Bankers' Association. Rates climbed yesterday after Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. succumbed to mounting credit-market losses and filed for bankruptcy....

The European Central Bank, Bank of England and Swiss National Bank offered financial institutions emergency cash for a second day as the credit rout threatened to derail markets.

The Frankfurt-based ECB offered 70 billion euros ($100 billion) in a one-day refinancing operation. Fifty-six banks bid for a total of 102.5 billion euros. The Bank of England injected 20 billion pounds ($36 billion). The SNB also said it will offer overnight cash..

Stocks continued to fall. Dow futures down 78 as of this writing, which is almost cheery under the circumstances.

Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index declined 2.4 percent. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index decreased 3.9 percent as trading resumed in Japan, China, Hong Kong and South Korea after markets were shut for public holidays yesterday. Futures on the Standard & Poor's 500 Index slipped 1 percent.

UBS, the largest Swiss bank, lost 9.2 percent 18.26 francs. Natixis SA, France's fourth-biggest bank, slumped 9.7 percent to 2.69 euros.

Barclays Plc, the U.K.'s third-largest bank, retreated 5 percent to 300.25 pence. The bank said today it's in talks to buy assets from bankrupt Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. two days after abandoning plans to acquire the entire securities firm.

Mitsubishi UFJ fell 7.7 percent to 792 yen, while Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc. declined 9.8 percent to 619,000 yen.

Some guarded optimism:

``Things can't get much worse,'' said Roland Lescure, who manages the equivalent of $128 billion as chief investment officer of Groupama Asset Management in Paris. ``We're at the heart of the storm right now. The downgrade of credit ratings is bad news, but inevitable.''

And a more alarmed take:

If A.I.G. collapsed, its hundreds of billions of dollars of mortgage-related assets would be added to those being sold by other financial institutions. This would just depress values further. The counterparties around the world to A.I.G.’s credit default swaps may be unable to collect on their trades. As a large hedge-fund investor, A.I.G. would suddenly become a large redeemer from hedge funds, forcing fund managers to sell positions and probably driving down prices in the world’s financial markets. More failures, particularly of hedge funds, could follow.

Regulators knew that if Lehman went down, the world wouldn’t end. But Wall Street isn’t remotely prepared for the inestimable damage the financial system would suffer if A.I.G. collapsed....

More promisingly, A.I.G. asked the Federal Reserve for a bridge loan. True, there is no precedent for the central bank to extend assistance to an insurance company. But these are unprecedented times, and the Federal Reserve should provide A.I.G. with some form of financial support while the company liquidates its mortgage-related assets in an orderly manner.

The Fed cannot afford to stand on principle. The myth of free markets ended with the takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Actually, it ended with their creation.

Another assessment hoisted from comments:

I think a failure of AIG would without doubt cause the entire banking system to seize immediately. CP and REPO mkts would become closed or prohibitively expensive to many market participants on top of what is now essentially a frozen CDS market. No ability to finance, no ability to hedge credit, and no liquidity, a death blow.

Under such a scenario the $70b REPO we saw today to pull FED funds back from 6% would be a drop in the bucket...


Barclays may buy Lehman assets:

Barclays on Tuesday confirmed that it was in talks with Lehman Brothers to buy some of the US banks’ assets. If a deal comes to fruition it is likely to be tied up rapidly, possibly by later in the day....

Barclays is likely to be interested in the broker dealer activities, including the equity, M&A and debt activities. It would not wish to take on any of Lehman’s troubled assets or to expose itself to any unknown pricing or capital risks. It is not thought to be interested in buying Neuberger Berman, Lehman’s asset management business.

The UK bank could take on the people in Lehman’s broker-dealer businesses and buy the related infrastructure and licences, enabling it to expand its investment banking business in line with the strategy it has previously outlined.

The opportunity to buy a business of such a size – Lehman was the fourth largest investment bank on Wall Street – at what could be a knock-down price would appeal to Barclays.

There was no indication on Tuesday of the price Barclays might have to pay or how it would finance a deal. However, the price could be low since Barclays is unlikely to want to pay more than book value for assets that have a relatively low worth. There is unlikely to be any goodwill attached to the Lehman’s name.

Brad Setser compares the Lehman default to Argentina's and concludes Lehman's is bigger and the parties exposed to it less well prepared.

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Lehman v Argentina
Posted on Tuesday, September 16th, 2008 by bsetser

I am guilty of instinctively comparing large defaults to the Argentina’s default. That is the largest default that I know well.

And Lehman qualifies as a large default.

John Jansen reports one of Lehman’s bonds now trades at 35 cents of on the dollar. That a bit above the levels that Argentina’s bonds traded at after Argentina’s default in late 2001. But Argentina’s bonds also eventually proved to be worth something like fifty cents on the dollar, at least to investors who participated in Argentina’s exchange and got the GDP warrant.*

Lehman’s bankruptcy filing indicates that Citi is a trustee for $138b of Lehman bonds, and the Bank of New York is a trustee for another $17b. The resulting $155b in outstanding bonds significantly exceeds Argentina’s outstanding stock of bonds at the time of its default.

And investors had far longer to adjust their portfolios in anticipation of Argentina’s default than in anticipation of Lehman’s default.

I continue to believe that the credit markets’ reaction to Lehman will ultimately matter more than the reaction of the equity markets. John Jansen reports that the spreads on Morgan Stanley and Goldman have widened significantly. Evans-Pritchard reports (hat tip naked capitalism):

The interest rate on Tier 1 debt for typical banks has jumped by 125 basis points since Friday. “This is a violent effect,” said Willem Sels, credit strategist at Dresdner Kleinwort.


Michael Lewis seems to be thinking along similar lines.


As important as it seems right now on Wall Street, this isn’t a day that most Americans will remember as all that big of a deal. When Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. goes out of business, the reaction of the average citizen is either “Lehman who?” or, “I heard of them! What do they do?”

It is a big deal, however, but not because some bond traders are out of work, or that puff pieces in business sections about Dick Fuld’s survival skills turned out to be wrong. It’s a big deal because this is the day that American financiers, from the point of view of the Asians who sit on top of the world’s biggest pile of mobile capital, became a bad risk.

And yes, the Bank of China seems to have a bit of exposure to Lehman. It also presumably has additional exposure to other US financial institutions (The BoC has by far the largest external portfolio of the Chinese state banks)

Widening spreads though only really bite when debt actually has to be refinanced. AIG seems to be facing some rather more immediate pressure from its swap counterparties.

More in the morning …

UPDATE: John Jansen reports Morgan Stanley’s credit spread has widened significantly and LIBOR is way way up. LIBOR may now be the rate that banks don’t lend to each other at, but the banks do need funding.

* I am doing this from memory; I have not checked the recent price for Argentina’s par bond and its GDP warrant recently. Do not hold me to an exact number. Argentina’s spread has widened recently, so I wouldn’t be surprised if Argentina’s par is now worth somewhat less than it was at some points in the past.

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Op dinsdag 16 september 2008 18:46 schreef Enchanter het volgende:
Beetje n00b vraag , maar verwachten jullie nog dat de dollar verder gaat zakken of blijft het een beetje schommelen tussen de 1.40 en 1.43 ?

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Op dinsdag 16 september 2008 19:00 schreef pberends het volgende:

[..]

Binnen nu en een paar weken gaat ie wel weer door de 1.50

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INSTANT VIEW: Government aid may be back in AIG picture - CNBC

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The possibility of government money or assistance to help keep insurer American International Group afloat is back on the table a day after such a potential lifeline was denied, CNBC reported on Tuesday. KEY POINTS: * The U.S. Federal Reserve had no comment on the CNBC report. COMMENTS:

KEITH WIRTZ, PRESIDENT AND CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER OF FIFTH THIRD ASSET MANAGEMENT:

"The Federal Reserve is the only one with the balance sheet and wherewithal to deal with AIG's problems. I think the government's move represents the vicious circle spiraling and now represents systematic risk. If the government comes in, this would be a huge relief."

JOE SALUZZI, CO-MANAGER OF TRADING AT THEMIS TRADING, CHATHAM, NEW JERSEY:

"It caused a nice little short squeeze to take us higher, but how knows if they'll really bail AIG out. The market thinks it would be good, but who knows how much it will cost? If anything, I thought it would be good to flush some more of this out, have another 500-point down day, and then let the real money come in. What's coming in here is not real money, it's hot money, traders going back and forth. Of course, come 2:15 today, the Fed could spark another change. This is a quick-changing market. If you don't have to buy, don't buy. No reason to be a hero and try to find the bottom. People should stay away, try to preserve capital."

JOHN MCCARTHY, DIRECTOR OF FOREIGN EXCHANGE, ING CAPITAL MARKETS, NEW YORK:

"Rumors that there is government money on the table for AIG coming from CNBC and they cite unnamed sources. That has clearly caused the Dow to rally sharply and we have see dollar/yen rally about a yen and we are waiting for the next rumor basically. Where they are getting that and what it means we don't know but a potential reversal of what Mr Paulson has been adamant about regarding the government rescuing people. We shall see how that plays out but the market is thin and illiquid so susceptible to these type of rumors. This is an unsubstantiated claim and we shall have to see if there is any merit to it."

WILLIAM LARKIN, FIXED INCOME PORTFOLIO MANAGER, CABOT MONEY MANAGEMENT, SALEM, MASSACHUSETTS:

"People are looking at some of the structural changes that are going on and everybody is trying to figure this out. It looks like things are subsiding a little bit, with a potential assistance package for AIG. Anything along those lines, if you can get something in place, every time we make a step forward I think we are in better shape, but there is still going to be some crazy volatility." Continued...

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Op dinsdag 16 september 2008 19:40 schreef agter het volgende:
Volgens Alex Advanced moet je nu AIG kopen...
[ afbeelding ]

Wie durft?

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Op dinsdag 16 september 2008 19:00 schreef pberends het volgende:

[..]

Binnen nu en een paar weken gaat ie wel weer door de 1.50

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Op dinsdag 16 september 2008 16:18 schreef Dr.Daggla het volgende:
Beetje een n00bvraag, maar waar de fuck haalt de FED die 50 miljard vandaan? ?

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With a private sector solution looking highly unlikely, the government is once again considering providing American International Group with some sort of financial support a day after such a potential lifeline was denied, according to investment banking sources involved in the meeting.

The New York Federal Reserve is currently meeting to discuss the fate of the troubled insurance giant, these people say.

Sources close to the situation said a private sector solution to AIG's situation is definitively dead.

The government's decision to reconsider providing some sort of the support to AIG comes under pressure from New York Governor David Paterson and policyholders AIG, who have asked the Fed to reconsider.

enz.

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Op dinsdag 16 september 2008 20:32 schreef X. het volgende:

[..]

Ik zou daar nu toch maar niet meer té zeker over zijn...

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CORRECTED - US STOCKS-Market turns higher on AIG report
Tue Sep 16, 2008 3:03pm EDT
(Corrects paragraph 1 to show that Bloomberg reported Fed, not Treasury, mulling loan package for AIG)

NEW YORK, Sept 16 (Reuters) -U.S. stocks turned higher on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 up 1 percent, after Bloomberg reported, citing a person familiar with negotiations, that the Fed is mulling a loan package for AIG.

American International Group (AIG.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) pared some of its losses, to down 25 percent at $3.59. Earlier in the session, AIG was down more than 40 percent.

Stocks had earlier fallen after the Federal Reserve left its key interest rate unchanged.

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Op dinsdag 16 september 2008 21:22 schreef Mr.J het volgende:
DJI 1,5% in de plus.

Denk dat wij met onze AEniX zich nu wel eens achter de oren mogen krabben met onze -2,5%.

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Op dinsdag 16 september 2008 21:23 schreef SeLang het volgende:

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Dus toch weer een bailout.
De markt gelijk in shortqueeze.

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Fortis boos over geruchten

De Belgisch-Nederlandse bank Fortis is des duivels over valse informatie die volgens het bedrijf in de markt wordt verspreid. Door deze informatie zou de koers van Fortis op de AEX vandaag fors gedaald zijn.
Click here to find out more!

Dat blijkt uit een verklaring die Fortis verstuurde.

De bank vond het noodzakelijk om officieel en publiekelijk te reageren op emails die circuleren tussen personen op financiėle markten.

Daarin zou sprake zijn van een aanstaande, nieuwe aandelenuitgifte door Fortis.

De bank ontkent het gerucht in het persbericht categorisch. Van een aandelenuitgifte is geen sprake.

Het is ongebruikelijk dat Fortis het pesbericht uitstuurde. Doorgaans gaat de bank nooit in op geruchten.

In de vroege namiddag stond het aandeel Fortis bijna 20 procent lager. Inmiddels is de koers wat bijgetrokken.

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Op dinsdag 16 september 2008 21:58 schreef Prutzenberg het volgende:
Toch blijf ik het een vreemde zaak vinden dat de koersen op Wall Street nagenoeg gelijk blijven terwijl de rest van de wereld dalende koersen ziet. Loopt iedereen daar met een roze bril op of zo?

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Op dinsdag 16 september 2008 21:58 schreef Prutzenberg het volgende:
Toch blijf ik het een vreemde zaak vinden dat de koersen op Wall Street nagenoeg gelijk blijven terwijl de rest van de wereld dalende koersen ziet. Loopt iedereen daar met een roze bril op of zo?

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Op dinsdag 16 september 2008 22:01 schreef Drugshond het volgende:

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Amerikaanse beleggers zijn van nature heel positief...Of het realistisch is... weet ik niet.

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Op dinsdag 16 september 2008 22:01 schreef Dr.Daggla het volgende:

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Er werd 50 miljard door de FED ingepompt en de overheid grijp wsl in bij AIG.
Dat het gelijk bleef is niet zo heel gek, waar die 50 miljard opeens vandaan komt is m.i. nog veel vreemder

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Op dinsdag 16 september 2008 22:07 schreef agter het volgende:

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De amerkaanse beleggers blijven in HUN zeepbel geloven. Dat is wel eng. Want dan kan het strakjes alleen maar harder naar beneden gaan...

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Op dinsdag 16 september 2008 22:07 schreef agter het volgende:

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Goeie vraag: Waar haalt de FED al dat geld vandaan?

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Op dinsdag 16 september 2008 22:12 schreef Dr.Daggla het volgende:

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Ik denk dat dat geloven tegen beter weten in is, maar wat moet je anders doen?

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Op dinsdag 16 september 2008 22:07 schreef agter het volgende:

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De amerkaanse beleggers blijven in HUN zeepbel geloven. Dat is wel eng. Want dan kan het strakjes alleen maar harder naar beneden gaan...

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Op dinsdag 16 september 2008 22:07 schreef agter het volgende:

[..]

Goeie vraag: Waar haalt de FED al dat geld vandaan?

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Op dinsdag 16 september 2008 22:13 schreef agter het volgende:

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Op een gegeven moment moet je toch je verlies nemen, zou ik denken. Het moet toch gecorrigeerd gaan worden, ergens, ooit.

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Op dinsdag 16 september 2008 22:26 schreef Drugshond het volgende:
http://finance.google.com/finance?q=NYSE:IGK&client=ft
ING -> -23 % in NYSE

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Op dinsdag 16 september 2008 21:58 schreef Prutzenberg het volgende:
Toch blijf ik het een vreemde zaak vinden dat de koersen op Wall Street nagenoeg gelijk blijven terwijl de rest van de wereld dalende koersen ziet. Loopt iedereen daar met een roze bril op of zo?

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Op dinsdag 16 september 2008 22:26 schreef Drugshond het volgende:
http://finance.google.com/finance?q=NYSE:IGK&client=ft
ING -> -23 % in NYSE

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Op dinsdag 16 september 2008 22:26 schreef Drugshond het volgende:
http://finance.google.com/finance?q=NYSE:IGK&client=ft
ING -> -23 % in NYSE

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J.P. Morgan advanced $138 billion to Lehman

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. has this week advanced $138 billion to Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. to help Lehman carry out its brokerage transactions. J.P. Morgan gave Lehman a $87 billion advance Monday and a $51 billion advance Tuesday, according to a filing with the U.S. Bankruptcy Court of the Southern District of New York.

"At the request of [Lehman] and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and in order to avoid a disruption of the financial markets ... [J.P. Morgan] advanced [the money] to or for the benefit of Lehman in order to clear, and facilitate the settlement of, certain securities transactions with customers or clients of Lehman," the filing said. The first advance was repaid Monday night, and Tuesday's advance was made at the request of both Lehman and the New York Fed, the filing also said.

J.P. Morgan "may elect to make additional advances," the investment bank stated in the filing. The advances were secured by collateral, according to J.P. Morgan. It didn't say where the $138 billion came from, or whether it had access to a Federal Reserve window. A J.P. Morgan spokeswoman did not immediately return calls. A Lehman official declined comment.

"Presumably, the funds to repay the loan at the end of each day come largely from the Federal Reserve's Primary Dealer Credit Facility," said Louis Crandall, an economist at Wrightson ICAP. That facility is part of the Fed's regular lending to support the payments and clearing systems.

U.S. stocks nose-dived Monday after a weekend of frantic negotiations failed to prevent Lehman filing for the largest bankruptcy in U.S. history. Despite the bankruptcy, Lehman's brokerage and investment-management divisions have continued their operations. U.K. bank Barclays is buying Lehman's capital-markets business, a source familiar with the matter told MarketWatch on Tuesday.

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Morgan Stanley shares jump after results

LOS ANGELES (MarketWatch) -- Shares of Morgan Stanley surged Tuesday evening after the investment bank posted higher quarterly results than expected.

Morgan Stanley rose 9% at $31.25 after it said that fiscal third-quarter net income came in at $1.425 billion, or $1.32 a share, down slightly from a year earlier when the investment bank made $1.543 billion or $1.44 a share. Net revenues were $8 billion in the latest quarter, up 1% from last year.

Wall Street was expecting earnings of 79 cents a share, according to a FactSet analyst survey. The quarterly figures were released ahead of schedule and come in the wake of turbulence among Wall Street's biggest financial firms.

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Op dinsdag 16 september 2008 23:04 schreef agter het volgende:
... Terwijl de FED toch een overheidsorgaan is?
...

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Op dinsdag 16 september 2008 23:08 schreef elcastel het volgende:

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Fout, de FED is door het bankwezen in het leven geroepen. ECB is overheids gestuurd.

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Op dinsdag 16 september 2008 23:09 schreef agter het volgende:
Okay, dat wist ik niet!
Dus alle leningen / geldinjecties in de markt van de FED zijn eigenlijk een sigaar uit eigen doos...

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Op dinsdag 16 september 2008 23:10 schreef elcastel het volgende:

[..]

Zo kun je het zien ja. Of een sigaar uit de dollardoos, want de FED bestuurd ook de drukpersen.

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Op dinsdag 16 september 2008 23:12 schreef agter het volgende:
Dus de banken bepalen zelf hoeveel er gedrukt wordt?

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U.S. Said to Be Considering Conservatorship as Option for AIG

Sept. 16 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. Treasury is considering taking over American International Group Inc. under a conservatorship as one option to address the insurer's crisis, according to two people briefed on the discussions.

Executives from AIG, bankers and Treasury and Federal Reserve officials are meeting today on the company's situation at the New York Fed.

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Sen. Dodd warns administration on aid to AIG

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd said on Tuesday that he is generally "skeptical" on any potential federal aid for troubled insurance giant American International Group Inc.

Asked about a possible government bridge loan or other support for AIG, the Connecticut Democrat told reporters he wants the Bush administration to consult with him before making a move one way or the other.

"I'm willing to listen. I'm skeptical ... I want to have them come to me as they're thinking about it, not announce it and expect us to necessarily go along with it."

"I would say to them now, don't announce that without talking with us up here and telling us why that is necessary," he said, referring to U.S. lawmakers.

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Op dinsdag 16 september 2008 23:25 schreef ItaloDancer het volgende:

[..]

Ze luisteren niet

[ afbeelding ]

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Op dinsdag 16 september 2008 23:50 schreef NorthernStar het volgende:
Lehman Brothers Richard Fuld told shareholders ``the worst is behind us'' [bron]

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WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. officials who said "No" to Lehman Brothers may be forced to bend on American Insurance Group Inc (AIG.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) because no one is quite sure what would happen if it failed and few want to find out.

This much is clear: A collapse of AIG would sting many of the world's biggest companies across virtually every business sector and could cause chaos in the $62 trillion market for credit default swaps, where it is a major player.

The world's biggest insurer has operations in more than 100 countries and its interests run the gamut from terrorism insurance to sports sponsorships.

"AIG's fingers run deep through the financial system," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com. "If the AIG domino falls, it could take out a lot of other dominoes."

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Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson has made it clear that he has little appetite for expensive bailouts after the government seized mortgage finance firms Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and pledged $29 billion to swing a deal for Bear Stearns.

He was adamant last week that he would not open federal coffers to Lehman Brothers, and he held firm to his word despite intense pressure from Wall Street. Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc (LEH.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) filed for bankruptcy on Monday, triggering a global financial market rout.

Lehman's demise served as a painful reminder the biggest financial heavyweights are closely linked through the trillions of dollars worth of transactions they conduct every day. When one player goes down, everyone who did business with that firm faces potential losses. That is the big fear with AIG.

AIG at $1 trillion in assets is substantially larger than Lehman Brothers and it does business with "virtually every financial institution in the world," money manager Michael Lewitt wrote in the New York Times on Tuesday.

"Regulators knew that if Lehman went down, the world wouldn't end. But Wall Street isn't remotely prepared for the inestimable damage the financial system would suffer if AIG collapsed," he wrote.

Even if the government refuses to risk taxpayer money to prop up AIG, public funds may still be needed if an AIG collapse drags down banks that are covered by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp, depleting its resources. The FDIC has a $45 billion deposit insurance fund.

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Op woensdag 17 september 2008 00:05 schreef agter het volgende:
Assets AIG: 1 triljoen dollar.
Tis geen kleintje ook.

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Op woensdag 17 september 2008 00:09 schreef DJKoster het volgende:

[..]

Trillion (dus Biljoen) of Triljoen?

-edit-
Ah, Trillion dus

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Op woensdag 17 september 2008 00:15 schreef agter het volgende:

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Hoeveel is een trillion in het NL?

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Op woensdag 17 september 2008 00:18 schreef DJKoster het volgende:

[..]

http://nl.wikipedia.org/w(...)rdeling#Vergelijking

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Op woensdag 17 september 2008 00:28 schreef agter het volgende:

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Een "trillion" in het EN is dus een biljoen in het NL...een 10 met 12 nullen.
10.000.000.000.000

Das best veel...

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Op woensdag 17 september 2008 00:01 schreef DJKoster het volgende:

[..]

Een kwart biljoen dollar weg, foetsie, gone.

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Op woensdag 17 september 2008 00:59 schreef Drugshond het volgende:
Als AIG valt dan hoef je denk ik niet meer te verwachten dat er iemand nog een grijpstuiver geeft om de Amerikaanse belangen/papieren. Het investeringsklimaat is dan 0.

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Op woensdag 17 september 2008 01:03 schreef agter het volgende:

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Ach, wellicht zijn er genoeg geinteresseerden in het buitenland (lees Arabie / azie) die AIG voor een stuiver willen kopen?

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Op woensdag 17 september 2008 01:17 schreef SeLang het volgende:
Het wordt toch gewoon weer een bailout in een of andere vorm.

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Op woensdag 17 september 2008 01:20 schreef Drugshond het volgende:

[..]

Dan wens ik de FED veel succes.
[ afbeelding ]

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Fed to Give A.I.G. $85 Billion Loan and Take 80% Stake

Published: September 16, 2008

In an extraordinary turn, the Federal Reserve agreed Tuesday night to take a nearly 80 percent stake in the troubled giant insurance company, the American International Group, in exchange for an $85 billion loan, according to people with knowledge of the negotiations.