Hurricane Season 2016 #2: Seizoen komt op gang

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Op vrijdag 26 augustus 2016 21:07 schreef aloa het volgende:

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Gaston de mooiweer brenger voor Nederland?

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Japan zet zich schrap voor tyfoon

Een krachtige tyfoon bedreigt grote delen van Japan, wat kan leiden tot overstromingen, modderstromen en hoge golven. Dat meldt het Japans Meteorologisch Agentschap.
Verwacht wordt dat tyfoon Lionrock hevige winden en regen met zich zal meebrengen op maandag en dinsdag in het oosten en noordoosten van Japan. Door de storm kunnen golven ontstaan van zeven tot negen meter.

Tiende tyfoon van het seizoen

Rond 02.00 uur Belgische tijd was de tyfoon, de tiende van het seizoen, op ongeveer 350 kilometer ten zuidoosten van het eiland Hachijo genaderd. De storm verplaatst zich in noordoostelijke richting, aan zowat 25 kilometer per uur. De windsnelheden bedragen gemiddeld 162 kilometer per uur, met windstoten tot 216 kilometer per uur.

In de regio Kanto, in het noordoosten van het eiland Hokkaido, wordt morgenochtend tot 150 millimeter regen verwacht, aldus het Agentschap.

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Op maandag 29 augustus 2016 14:17 schreef bwt het volgende:
Ik mis eigenlijk een linkje in de OP.
http://www.meteoearth.com/
Laat het actieve weer zien over de hele wereld.

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Madeline could become the first hurricane on record in the Big Island
At its closest, the center of Madeline is projected to be roughly 100 miles south of the Big Island. Given that this is more than two days out, we cannot yet entirely rule out the possibility that Madeline will stay far enough north to produce the first-ever hurricane strike on the Big Island in records going back to 1949. The 12Z Monday HWRF and GFDL model runs bring Madeline into the Big Island at hurricane strength, while the European and GFS models keep Madeline south of the island. Even if the latter occurs, very strong northeast winds rotating around the hurricane could produce torrential rains, flooding, and huge surf on the east side of the island. Tropical-storm-force winds currently extend out up to 115 miles from Madeline, and that envelope may expand by Wednesday as the hurricane matures.

About 1000 miles east of Madeline, Hurricane Lester remains impressive, now packing minimal Category 4 winds of 130 mph as of the 5 pm EDT advisory from NHC. As its shield of thunderstorms grows larger, Lester is taking on more of the characteristics of an annular hurricane--the type that features a large eye and a single broad ring around that eye, as opposed to spiral bands. Annular hurricanes tend to be slow to weaken, which raises the odds of Lester remaining strong enough to affect Hawaii as a hurricane. NHC predicts that Lester will be roughly 150 miles northeast of Hilo on Saturday morning as a Category 1 hurricane, on a northwestward-angling track that could keep the storm just north of the islands. There is enough error in five-day tracks to put most of the Big Island within NHC’s “cone of uncertainty” for Saturday, and a direct strike from Lester on one or more islands cannot yet be ruled out.

One factor that could influence both tracks is the Fujiwhara effect, in which hurricanes within about 800 miles of each other begin to rotate around a center of gravity in between them. Lester is slowly catching up to Madeline as it moves west at 14 mph, vs. Madeline’s 10 mph motion. If the two hurricanes get close enough, the Fujiwhara effect will tend to angle Madeline’s path toward the south and Lester’s toward the north--in both cases, exactly what you would want to reduce the chance of a direct hit on Hawaii. Such an outcome is by no means guaranteed, though. Given Hawaii’s limited experience with tropical cyclones (see this morning’s post for more details), both of these systems need to be taken very seriously.

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Op dinsdag 13 september 2016 09:00 schreef Frutsel het volgende:
WKN / Supertyfoon Meranti op koers met China, Taiwan en Hong Kong

eigen topic

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Asian typhoons becoming more intense, study finds
Giant storms that wreak havoc across China, Japan, Korea and the Philippines have grown 50% stronger in the past 40 years due to warming seas

The destructive power of the typhoons that wreak havoc across China, Japan, Korea and the Philippines has intensified by 50% in the past 40 years due to warming seas, a new study has found.

The researchers warn that global warming will lead the giant storms to become even stronger in the future, threatening the large and growing coastal populations of those nations.

“It is a very, very substantial increase,” said Prof Wei Mei, at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, who led the new work. “We believe the results are very important for east Asian countries because of the huge populations in these areas. People should be aware of the increase in typhoon intensity because when they make landfall these can cause much more damage.”

Typhoons can have devastating impacts in east Asia. In 2013, typhoon Haiyan hit the Philippines, killing at least 6,300 people and affecting 11 million. Typhoon Nina struck China in 1975, dumping 100cm of rain in a day and leading to 229,000 deaths and 6m destroyed buildings. Last week typhoon Lionrock left 11 people dead in northern Japan and caused power blackouts and property damage, while in July typhoon Nepartak hit Taiwan and China, killing at least nine people and leaving a trail of destruction.

In the new research, published in Nature Geoscience, the scientists took data collected independently by centres in Japan and Hawaii and, after accounting for differences in the way it had been collected, showed that typhoons in the north-west Pacific had intensified by 12–15% on average since 1977. The proportion of the most violent storms - categories 4 and 5 - doubled and even tripled in some regions over that time and the intensification was most marked for those storms which hit land.

The intensity of a typhoon is measured by the maximum sustained wind speed, but the damage caused by its high winds, storm surges, intense rains and floods increases disproportionately, meaning a 15% rise in intensity leads to a 50% rise in destructive power.

People take cover under a tree after strong winds brought by typhoon Rammasun, locally called Glenda, battered Manila, the Philippines, in July 2014.
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People take cover under a tree after strong winds brought by typhoon Rammasun, locally called Glenda, battered Manila in the Philippines, July 2014. Photograph: Romeo Ranoco/REUTERS
The researchers showed that the intensification of typhoons making landfall occurred because warmer coastal seas provided more energy to growing storms, enabling their wind speeds to increase more rapidly.

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Scientists are not yet able to determine whether manmade climate change or natural cycles are to blame for the warming seas in the region because 40 years is a relatively short time span for such phenomena. But Wei is clear that the future global warming, as projected by the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, would heat the oceans in the region and lead to even more intense typhoons.

Mei said: “We want to give the message that typhoon intensity has increased and will increase in the future because of the warming climate.” He said action was needed to both prepare for future typhoons and to reduce carbon dioxide emissions to curb warming: “Understanding intensity change is very important for disaster preparation.”

Prof Kerry Emanuel, an expert on tropical cyclones at MIT and not involved in the new research said: “The results leave little doubt that there are more high intensity events affecting south-east Asia and China, and these are also intensifying more rapidly.”

“This is significant for these nations because what matters, in the end, is landfall size and intensity,” he said. “Stronger storms cause higher storm surges, which often cause the most destruction and loss of life.” Previous work by Emanuel showed tropical cyclones are likely to become more frequent and stronger if climate change is not curbed.

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Op woensdag 14 september 2016 18:54 schreef aloa het volgende:
TS Julia


[ afbeelding ]

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Op woensdag 14 september 2016 19:04 schreef aloa het volgende:

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gewoon ��n storm.

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97L Potentially a Dangerous Storm for the Caribbean

A tropical wave located midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa on Sunday afternoon was headed west at 15 - 20 mph, and has the potential to become a dangerous storm in the Caribbean later this week. NHC designated this system Invest 97L on Sunday morning. After looking remarkably unimpressive on satellite loops for the previous few days, 97L was turning that situation around on Sunday. The system had a large circulation at middle levels of the atmosphere, with an increasing amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. Some low-level spiral bands were beginning to develop, and upper-level outflow was becoming established to 97L’s north. The storm’s organization was being aided by low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, a very moist atmosphere (relative humidities at mid-levels of the atmosphere near 75%) and warm ocean waters of 29�C (84�F). Significant negatives for development included the storm’s forward speed of 15 - 20 mph, which was too fast for the storm to get itself vertically aligned, plus 97L’s nearness to the equator. The system was centered near 8�N, which was too far south to be able to leverage the Earth’s spin and acquire much spin.

Forecast for 97L
Invest 97L will continue west to west-northwest at 15 - 20 mph through Tuesday, reaching a latitude of about 12�N by Tuesday. This is far enough away from the equator to give 97L an extra boost of spin that may allow it to become a tropical depression on Tuesday. With the SHIPS model predicting wind shear remaining low, mid-level moisture staying high at 70 - 75%, SSTs remaining a very warm 29�C (84�F), and 97L slowing its forward speed to about 15 mph, conditions will be ripe on Tuesday for 97L to become a tropical depression or tropical storm before it reaches the Lesser Antilles Islands. By Tuesday night, the outer spiral bands of 97L will begin spreading over the Lesser Antilles, bringing high winds and heavy rains. The core of the storm will pass through the islands on Wednesday afternoon.

Invest 97L may pass very close to the coast of South America, which would interfere with development. In addition, the southeastern Caribbean is a well-known tropical cyclone graveyard, where scores of healthy-looking storms have died or suffered severe degradation. This is primarily due to the fact that the southeastern Caribbean is a place where the surface trade winds tend to accelerate, due to the geography and meteorology of the area. A region of accelerating flow at the surface means that air must come from above to replace the air that is being sucked away at the surface. Sinking air from above warms and dries as it descends, creating high pressure and conditions unfavorable for tropical cyclones.

Model support for development of 97L continues to remain high. Our top three models for predicting hurricane genesis—the GFS, UKMET and European models—all predicted in their 00Z Sunday runs that 97L would develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm between Monday and Wednesday. About 70% of the 20 forecasts from the members of the 00Z Sunday GFS ensemble showed development into a tropical storm, with 40% predicting a hurricane. The European model ensemble was less aggressive developing the storm, probably because of a predicted track too close to the coast of South America—about 40% of its 50 ensemble members predicted a tropical storm in the Caribbean, with 30% predicting a hurricane. In their 2 pm EDT Sunday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 97L 2-day and 5-day development odds of 30% and 90%, respectively. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to make their first flight into the storm on Tuesday afternoon. The next name on the Atlantic list of storm names is Matthew.

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Op dinsdag 27 september 2016 19:25 schreef aloa het volgende:

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90% nu...

Ha�ti kan weleens landfall krijgen.

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Op woensdag 5 oktober 2016 16:53 schreef Drugshond het volgende:
tvp, dit kon wel een killer worden. Was het al.

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Op woensdag 5 oktober 2016 16:54 schreef Frutsel het volgende:

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een oud WKN mod die nu pas een tvp komt zetten, foei

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Op woensdag 5 oktober 2016 19:49 schreef aloa het volgende:

Chaba Typhoon Tsunami Hit Busan Korea - 05/10/2016

Tsunami-Like Typhoon on Busan South Korea October 5 2016 (SHOCKING VIDEOS), Tsunami on Busan

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Op zaterdag 22 oktober 2016 08:20 schreef aloa het volgende:
Er lijkt ook een systeem te ontstaan boven de Golf van Bengalen. Kan een probleem worden voor India of Bangladesh.

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Unieke orkaan treft Costa Rica en Nicaragua

Orkaan Otto trekt morgen vanaf de Caribische Zee over Costa Rica en Nicaragua en zal veel schade aanrichten. De kern van de orkaan trekt van oost naar west over het grensgebied van deze twee landen. Naast de zeer krachtige wind is er grote overlast te verwachten door hoge golven en extreem veel neerslag. Hierdoor is kans op overstromingen en modderstromen. Orkanen zijn zeer uitzonderlijk in deze regio. Ook is een orkaan zo laat in het jaar een bijzonderheid.

Officieel loopt het Atlantisch orkaanseizoen van 1 juni tot en met 30 november, maar veruit de meeste orkanen kwamen voor in de maanden augustus, september en oktober. Orkanen in november zijn vrij zeldzaam en zeker orkanen zo laat in deze maand.

Ook de locatie, in het uiterste zuidwesten van de Caribische Zee is bijzonder. Hier is, voor zover bekend, nog niet eerder een storm met orkaankracht voorgekomen. Het land Costa Rica heeft �berhaupt nog niet eerder met een orkaan te maken gehad.

Verwachting in meer detail
Volgens de laatste verwachting gaat Otto morgen aan land in het zuidoosten van Nicaragua. Hij koerst dan over het grensgebied van Nicaragua en Costa Rica, met kern ten zuiden van het Meer van Nicaragua langs, om via het noordwesten van Costa Rica vrijdag de Grote Oceaan op te trekken. Vanaf dan ligt voorlopig geen land meer op zijn pad.

Met een gemiddelde windsnelheid van 110-120 km/u zit Otto op dit moment rond de grens van tropisch storm (windkracht 11) en de laagste categorie (cat. 1) orkaan. De komende 12-24 uur zal Otto iets in kracht toenemen en daarmee een categorie 1 orkaan zijn als hij aan land gaat. Boven land zal hij weer afzwakken tot tropische storm.

Extreem veel regen
In het zuiden van Nicaragua en het noorden van Costa Rica valt in twee dagen tijd op veel plekken 100-200 mm regen. Zeer lokaal kan de neerslaghoeveelheid oplopen tot wel 500 mm. Dit is ruim een halve Nederlandse jaarsom. Deze neerslaghoeveelheid zal zeker leiden tot wateroverlast. Ook is, vooral in de bergachtige gebieden, kans op gevaarlijke modderstromen.

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Otto is now the strongest Atlantic hurricane this late in the season since 1934

Otto, now the strongest Atlantic hurricane this late in the season since 1934, is on its way to Nicaragua and Costa Rica with winds of 165 km/h (105 mph). Landfall is expected within the hurricane warning area during November 24, 2016. Heavy rainfall, life-threatening floods and landslides, strong winds, and dangerous storm surge will affect Panama, Costa Rica, and Nicaragua over the coming days.

Hurricane "Otto" formed on November 22, in the Caribbean Sea as the 7th hurricane of the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season, including record-breaking, early season Hurricane "Alex" of January 2016. Panama and Costa Rica were already affected by the hurricane. Local media reported that the death toll in Panama has reached seven people in the provinces of Colon and Panama.

Hurricane Otto approaching Panama, Costa Rica, and Nicaragua, November 23, 2016

Otto was located about 110 km (70 miles) north of Limon, Costa Rica, and about 150 km (90 miles) southeast of Bluefields, Nicaragua, and moving westward at 13 km.h (8mph) on November 24, 2016, at 12:00 UTC, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC). The hurricane, now a Category 2 system, was packing maximum sustained winds of 165 km/h (105 mph) with a minimum central pressure estimated at 976 hPa.

According to Philip Klotzbach, a meteorologist at CSU, Otto is now the strongest Atlantic hurricane reported this late in the season since 1934.

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Zeker negen doden in Costa Rica

De doortocht van de orkaan Otto heeft in het Midden-Amerikaanse Costa Rica het leven gekost aan minstens negen mensen. Dat heeft de regering aangekondigd.

Vijf mensen kwamen om in Upala, in het noorden van het land. In het nabijgelegen Bagaces vielen nog eens vier doden. Otto maakte ook de meeste schade in het noorden. Volgens het Rode Kruis zijn nog zeker 25 mensen vermist. Er waren zo'n 4.000 mensen ge�vacueerd voordat Otto aan land kwam.

President Luis Guillermo Solis heeft drie dagen van nationale rouw afgekondigd vanaf maandag.

De orkaan heeft ook aan drie mensen het leven gekost in Panama. In Nicaragua kwam een vrouw om het leven na een hartaanval.

Otto, intussen afgezwakt tot een tropische storm, bevindt zich nu boven de Stille Oceaan. Hij zou na zijn doortocht over Midden-Amerika niet meer aan land komen.