Hurricane Season 2012 # 1

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Cyclone warning issued for parts of Western Australia
A cyclone warning has been issued for parts of Western Australia's Pilbara coast.

The Bureau of Meteorology says a tropical low was located about 550 kilometres north of Port Hedland at 2:00pm (WST) and is moving south at around 20 kilometres per hour towards the coast.

The bureau says a cyclone may develop later on Wednesday and a warning is current for coastal areas from Wallal to Dampier, including the towns of Port Hedland and Karratha.

The Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre's Adam Conroy says heavy rains and gale force winds are expected.

"The low's going to bring a fair bit of rain to the central and eastern Pilbara and we're also looking at gale force winds developing on the coast during Wednesday," he said.

"We certainly will see a fair few falls in excess of 100 millimetres and isolated heavier falls are possible near the coast."

Mr Conroy says the low is moving quite quickly.

"The low's developed reasonably rapidly off the coast," he said.

"Regardless of whether it does develop into a cyclone or not, it's still going to bring some heavy rainfall and squally conditions along the Pilbara coast during Wednesday."

Heavy rain in the Pilbara has already forced the closure of two national parks.

The Karijini National Park received 97 millimetres of rain overnight while the Millstream Chichester National Park recorded 125 millimetres.

The rain has caused flash flooding and inundation of roads and campsites in the parks.

The Department of Environment and Conservation (DEC) says there is significant danger associated with flash flooding and gorges because water levels can rise very high, quickly.

The DEC is advising travellers to avoid the parks and stick to major roads.

People already in the parks are advised to stay with their vehicles and move to higher ground but not to cross floodways and streams.

Authorities are telling people to be prepared to leave if the situation worsens.

The DEC says with more rain forecast, the parks will remain closed under further notice.

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Cyclone Heide moving in
A category one cyclone has formed off Western Australia and is heading towards the Pilbara coast.

The Bureau of Meteorology says Tropical Cyclone Heidi is expected to produce winds of up to 100 kilometres per hour in areas from Port Headland to Wallal early this morning.

The strong gales will extend west to Dampier later in the day.

The weather bureau says Heidi is unlikely to intensify beyond a category one system before reaching the coast.

It says tides will be higher than expected and rainfall in excess of 100 millimetres is possible across the central and eastern Pilbara, with heavier falls near the coast.

People in or near coastal and island communities between Pardoo and Whim Creek, including Pardoo, Port Hedland, South Hedland and Whim Creek, need to begin making their cyclone preparations.

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Cycloon Heidi treft West-Australië
Het westen van Australië is getroffen door de tropische cycloon Heidi. Door de storm is de haven van Port Hedland noodgedwongen gesloten; het is een van de grootste ijzeropslagplaatsen in de wereld. Andere havens in de buurt zijn ook gesloten.

Een paar duizend gezinnen en bedrijven in de regio hebben geen stroom meer. Ook moest een aantal kustbewoners hun huis uit vanwege de hoge waterstand die door de cycloon werd veroorzaakt.

Er is nog niets bekend over mogelijke slachtoffers. Heidi trekt de komende dagen verder over land richting het zuidwesten van Australië.

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Tropical Cyclone Heidi soaks North West
You won't find a more cyclone hardened part of Australia, if not the world, than Western Australia's Pilbara Region. It's like a magnet for cyclones that form in the Indian Ocean to the north and West and in the Timor Sea to the Northeast. So you might think that category two cyclone Heidi that passed almost over the top of the tough iron ore town of Port Hedland would barely rate a mention. But surprisingly, this was Hedland's first cyclone since 2007 when Severe Tropical Cyclone George hit the region where it hurts, taking three lives in a mining workers camp.

Less well known than the big east coast cyclones Larry and Yasi, category 4 George tore through Port Hedland before ripping up mining camps and cattle stations. So there were more nerves than usual in the North West as Cyclone Heidi crossed the coast at almost the exact spot the deadly Cyclone George did five years ago.

Hedland resident and ABC reporter Elise Batchelor, described the strange affects the 130 kilometre per hour wind gusts were having on her home

"The manhole cover in our...ceiling...It was flapping like a wobble board Rolf Harris style and then just flew up and disappeared into the ceiling."

Power was cut to over 3,500 homes as the eye of Cyclone Heidi crossed the coast ten kilometres east of Port Hedland. Fears of a dangerous storm-tide did not eventuate as the cyclone slowed on approach to the mainland and crossed after the midnight high tides. But with over a hundred millimetres of rain dumped on the area, local flooding was an issue.

The Bureau of Meteorology issued flood warnings for coastal streams and river systems. Chris, a boilermaker at Nallagine said they've had over 200 millimetres of rain.

"It's rained solid for 28 hours now...There's like, huge puddles everywhere; there's not much dry land here." he said.

But early assessments have found no major damage, a couple of roofs were blown off and quite a few trees and power lines were blown down. The stoicism and hardiness of the region returned with the light of day and the realisation that damage was minimal.

"We're getting a fare bit of rain, but as long as the winds don't pick up then I think we should be pretty much right" said Graham Boyd, the principal at Yandeyarra Remote Community School, 100 kilometres south of Hedland.

The Great Northern Highway was closed for less than 24 hours to stop people driving into the eye of the storm. But with the passing of Heidi, the main road north was promptly reopened.

Chainsaws will be ringing out across what will be hot and humid days ahead in Port Hedland. Horizon Power have crews working to restore power. Heidi is destined to become a barely remembered event in a part of Australia where cyclones are a way of life.

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Possible tropical threat to Mozambique
An area of low pressure spinning over Indian Ocean waters off the coast of southern Africa threatens to bring torrential rain inland during upcoming days.

In fact, the low has the potential to become a tropical cyclone before reaching land.

Time for development is short, however, as the system is forecast to move into southern Mozambique on Monday.

Whether the disturbance becomes a tropical cyclone or not, it can bring rain heavy enough to trigger flooding in Mozambique's southern provinces, primarily Maputo, Inhambane and Gaza, beginning later Sunday night.

The risk of heavy rain will persist in the aforementioned areas through midweek while expanding into neighboring areas of Swaziland, northeastern South Africa and southeastern Zimbabwe. In areas of steep terrain, especially in northeastern South Africa, there can be mudslides.

Should the low grow into a tropical cyclone, there would be strong and locally damaging winds along the coast of southern Mozambique on Monday.

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Flooding hits Kruger Park South Africa
Torrential rain unleashed by a dissipating tropical depression triggered flooding in northeastern South Africa this week.

After causing flood and wind damage in and near Maputo, Mozambique, early in the week, the dissipating Tropical Depression Dando poured flooding rain over nearby South Africa, including the vast Kruger National Park.

Weather observations seen by AccuWeather.com showed rainfall of nearly 15 inches at Hoedspruit, and about 11 inches at Skukuza. The rain fell between Tuesday and Thursday. Skukuza is located within Kruger Park.

KrugerPark Floods 18/01/12

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IGGY leaves 16 dead in Indonesia
At least 16 people were confirmed killed and more than 2,300 houses damaged in torrential rains and strong winds that lashed much of Indonesia over the past few days.

Sutopo Purwo Nugroho, a spokesman for the National Disaster Mitigation Agency (BNPB), said on Sunday that most of those killed were struck by trees felled by severe winds.

“Fourteen people were crushed by falling trees,” the spokesman said. “In total, 60 people were injured.”

He added that more than 2,300 houses in 35 districts and cities across Java and Bali had been damaged in the last four days due to heavy winds and rain whipped up by Tropical Cyclone Iggy, churning just south of Bali and the Nusa Tenggara island chain.

“But now Tropical Cyclone Iggy has weakened and is moving away from Indonesia,” he said.

Elsewhere in the country, at least two other people were confirmed killed as a result of the foul weather.

In Bali, the heavy rains caused a massive landslide on Saturday in the Taman Ayun Temple area, a popular tourist spot, killing an 18-month-old baby.

Ketut Parwa, the head of the Bali Search and Rescue Agency, said the child had been asleep with her mother at a food stall in the temple’s parking lot when the disaster struck at 11 p.m. They had gone to the food stall to take shelter from the rain.

Parwa said the 12-meter-high precipice on which the food stall was located suddenly gave way, burying the child in tons of mud. The mother managed to escape. Rescuers recovered the child’s body on Sunday evening.

In Lebak district, Banten, authorities recovered the body of a boy who had been swept away and drowned in a river. They are continuing their search for a friend who was with him.

Irna, an official with the local search team, said the victims, both 14-year-old students at an Islamic boarding school, went missing on Friday while swimming in the rain-swollen Ciberang River. One of the bodies was recovered later that day and given to the family for burial.

“We’ve combed a four-kilometer stretch of the river over the past two days, but we still haven’t been able to find the second boy,” Irna said.

“We’re having great difficulty in our search because of the strong current in the river.”

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SO INDIAN OCEAN - We're watching another low near Madagascar, now that Funso fizzled. This low is near 16.8S 44.2E, 210 nm northwest of ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. The low-level center is partially exposed, and its grazing the coast of Cape Saint Andre Region and is moving back into the warm Mozambique Channel. It has a medium chance for becoming a tropical depression.

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Tropics Trying to Come Alive in the Gulf of Mexico

The calendar says it's early February, but that is not stopping the tropics from trying to come alive in the south-central Gulf of Mexico.

The area of concern is a cluster of showers and thunderstorms spinning in the southern Gulf of Mexico, near the Yucatan Peninsula.

This broad area of low pressure has not only put the AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center on alert, but prompted the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Fla., to state, "this area is being closely monitored for possible further development."

Tropical season in the Atlantic Basin is not confined to the months spanning June to November, but rather when the conditions are conducive.

Some of those key ingredients needed for the development of at least a subtropical depression (a system with partial tropical characteristics) are currently trying to come together in the south-central Gulf of Mexico.
Water temperatures in the south-central Gulf of Mexico are near 80 degrees, the threshold for tropical development.

While not absent, the wind shear (disruptive winds high in the atmosphere) present is not strong enough to totally inhibit development.

If a subtropical depression or storm were to take shape (acquiring the name "Alberto" from the 2012 list), the AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center feels it would track into South Florida later Monday into Monday night.

Torrential rain causing flooding in low-lying and poor-drainage areas would be the main concern, even if development fails to take place.

Evident by the radar from Key West, Fla., downpours will continue to get pushed into South Florida well ahead of the actual low's center.

The formation of a tropical storm in February is rare, but has occurred once before in history. The Groundhog Day Tropical Storm from 1952 developed in the northwestern Caribbean before tracking across South Florida.

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Irina flood threat to Southeast Africa
Irena has unleashed gusty winds and heavy rainfall to parts of Mozambique, South Africa and Madagascar this week.

As of Sunday, EST, the center of Tropical Cyclone Irina (14S) was near 27.6 south and 34.1 east, or about 120 miles southeast of Maputo, Mozambique. Movement was to the south at 10 mph. Maximum sustained winds were near 45 mph with gusts to 55 mph.

Current satellite shows only scattered convection around the center of the system which continues to limit the intensity of the system.

Tropical Cyclone Irina will move in a southerly direction over the next 24 hours. Irina is expected to remain off the southern Mozambique and northern South Africa coast during this time. This will bring wind and rounds of locally heavy rain to the coast; however, given that the storm is so small, impacts will be limited to coastal areas.

A trough crossing the southern part of the continent will attempt to pull Irina to the southeast as it moves nearby, but it is expected to miss this connection and return back to the north and west making landfall on Wednesday or Wednesday night in southern Mozambique as a minimal cyclone.

Given this expected track, coastal wind damage and flooding problems are expected from northeast South Africa into southern Mozambique through the middle of the week.

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Tropische storm en minitornado vernielen Townsville
Een tropische storm heeft in het noorden van Australië lelijk huisgehouden in het stadje Townsville. De mini-wervelstorm, die snelheden haalde van meer dan 110 km/u, vernielde in de vroege ochtend een zestigtal gebouwen. Dertien mensen raakten gewond. De storm rukte tientallen daken van de huizen, knapte stroomleidingen en blies auto's en bomen omver. De stad aan de oostkust van het continent werd tot rampgebied uitgeroepen.

Anna Bligh kwam als premier van de deelstaat Queensland al een kijkje nemen. "Ik ben gechoqueerd door de omvang van de schade. Enkele slachtoffers zullen gedurende maanden niet meer kunnen terugkeren naar hun huis."

"Het hele huis daverde op zijn grondvesten, vooral de bovenste verdieping. Het lawaai was oorverdovend", aldus bewoonster Erin Matinca op televisiezender ABC. Ze werd wakker toen de wind de meubelen in het huis had omvergeworpen. "We moesten in de gang blijven, dat was de enige plaats die veilig was voor rondvliegend vensterglas."

Aanhangwagen paar huizen verder
De ware omvang van de vernieling was pas bij dageraad zichtbaar, vertelde Tony Ebon. De storm had zijn twee ton zware aanhangwagen een paar huizen verder geblazen. Shane Fayers en zijn gezin vluchtten in het toilet van hun woning toen de storm hun huis vernielde. Dak en muren werden weggerukt.

"Het duurde slechts een tiental minuten. Ik kon voelen hoe het huis werd uiteengereten. Dat was redelijk wild", zei Fayers. Soldaten van een nabijgelegen kazerne zijn opgeroepen om mee de schade te helpen opruimen.

Townsville - Small Tornado March 20th 2012 Ch7News

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Hurricane Season 2012: Below average
A cooler Atlantic Ocean will probably produce 10 named storms in the hurricane season that begins June 1, about half last year’s total, according to researchers at Colorado State University.

Of those systems, four will probably become hurricanes with winds of at least 74 miles (119 kilometers) per hour and two may grow into major storms with winds of 111 mph or more, according to the forecast.

“What we’re expecting right now is a somewhat below- average hurricane season compared to the 1981 to 2010 average,” said Phil Klotzbach, lead author of the forecast begun at the university 29 years ago by Bill Gray, a pioneer in long-range hurricane predictions. “The take-home message with all of our forecasts is that it is kind of our best estimate, but it only takes one storm to make it an active season for you.”

The season, which runs through Nov. 30, is closely watched because the storms are a threat to oil and natural gas interests in the Gulf of Mexico and agriculture in the South. The Gulf accounts for 29 percent of U.S. oil output and 40 percent of refining capacity, while Florida is the second-largest citrus producer behind Brazil.

Last year, Colorado State predicted in April that there would be 16 named storms. Nineteen developed, tying with 2010, 1995 and 1887 for the third-most active season, based on records dating back to 1851.
Weather Patterns

Klotzbach said larger weather patterns will probably have an impact on the number of storms in the Atlantic this year.

The Pacific Ocean may experience an El Nino warming, which will increase wind shear across the Atlantic, he said. Wind shear tears at the structure of hurricanes and can keep weaker systems from growing into larger storms.

The possibility of the Pacific warming to levels needed to create additional Atlantic shear is still uncertain, based on computer models, Klotzbach said.

The models are bad at making predictions about El Nino during the Northern Hemisphere’s spring from March to June, said Mike Halpert, deputy director of the U.S. Climate Prediction Center in Camp Springs, Maryland.

“This is absolutely the worst time of year to try to forecast,” Halpert said.

In addition to the warmth of the Pacific, temperatures at the surface of the Atlantic also play a role in determining how many hurricanes will form, Klotzbach said.
Atlantic Cooling

The Atlantic surface has cooled in part because of the weather pattern that left the eastern U.S. warmer than normal this past winter. A cooler Atlantic, especially off the coast of Africa, means there is less energy for storms to draw on as they develop, Klotzbach said.

The Colorado State outlook is in line with those from commercial forecasters MDA EarthSat Weather in Gaithersburg, Maryland, and Commodity Weather Group LLC in Bethesda, Maryland.

Both companies predicted 11 storms for this year.

The average season produces 12 named systems, six of which become hurricanes with three developing into major storms, according to Dennis Feltgen, spokesman for the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

Irene, which went ashore in North Carolina, New Jersey and New York in August, was the first hurricane to strike the U.S. since Ike hit near Galveston, Texas, in 2008. There hasn’t been a major hurricane landfall since Wilma in 2005, the longest such stretch on record.

A storm gets a name when its winds reach 39 mph. Based on the averages from 1966 to 2009, the first of the season usually occurs by July 9 and the first hurricane by Aug. 10.

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Forecast 2012
AccuWeather's 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season forecasts 12 named tropical storms, five named hurricanes and two major hurricanes.

The 2012 hurricane forecast is near-normal for the Atlantic Basin.

Potential Impact This Year
Predicting exactly where storms will make landfall in the U.S. would be extremely difficult, but there are some indications of areas where storms may brew and coasts that may be vulnerable based on weather patterns anticipated this summer.

"Home-grown" storms in the western Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico, near the U.S. Coast, are a possibility this year.

"Fronts coming down during June and July could cause energy to break off and develop tropically," Paul Pastelok, AccuWeather.com lead long-range forecaster, said.

"Another big storm is possible for the East Coast with heavy, flooding rain," Pastelok added. "With a ridge [of high pressure] over the Rockies and a trough [of low pressure] over the Great Lakes and Appalachians, the East Coast will be open for a hit [this summer]. Of course, this depends on where the storms form."

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Signs of tropical activity in Caribbean later this month
While an area is being watched in the Eastern Pacific for tropical development early this week, the Caribbean could show some signs of life later this month.

A broad area of low pressure is expected to form very slowly in the area around Central America and the western Caribbean.

Folks living in the region around Central America to Cuba, Jamaica, The Bahamas and South Florida should not be overly concerned at this point.

Chances are this system will never become strong or well organized.

However, it could spread a swath of downpours over the region. Even a weak, disorganized system can produce clusters of heavy, gusty thunderstorms, which would be a problem for pleasure boaters, beach goers and fishing interests.

According to Tropical Weather Expert Dan Kottlowski, "This is likely to end up like about a dozen or so systems during the season that do not reach tropical storm status."

"The system will not have any tropical waves coming in from the east to give it a jump start, but a non-tropical feature arriving from the northwest next week may just help create a broad area of low pressure or gyre," Kottlowski added.

We are in a neutral phase of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This is the fluctuation of sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean.

When the tropical Pacific surface water is warmer than average, it is considered an El Nino, When it is cooler than average it is considered La Nina.

During an El Nino, (warm water phase) air tends to rise over the tropical Pacific Ocean, supporting the formation of tropical cyclones. Correspondingly, air tends to sink over the Atlantic, working against the formation of tropical cyclones.

It tends to work just the opposite during a La Nina phase of the ENSO.

"Since we are in a neutral phase, we should not expect any substantial interference or gain at this point of the season by the ENSO," Kottlowski said.

The start of the Atlantic hurricane season is not until June 1, but tropical storms have formed as early as January and February with hurricanes as early as March.

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Op zondag 6 mei 2012 22:06 schreef aloa het volgende:
Nog ver weg. De eerste storm in de Pacific (oost)??

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Azoren low pressure system unlikely to develop
The hybrid low pressure system with both tropical and extratropical characteristics that formed Saturday over the far Eastern Atlantic, about 450 miles southwest of the southern Azores Islands (Invest 92L), has weakened considerably, and is unlikely to become Subtropical Storm Alberto. Wind shear has increased to a very high 25 - 40 knots over 92L today, causing a marked deterioration of the heavy thunderstorm activity. Also not helping is the fact 92L is over cold ocean waters of 68°F (20°C.) This is well below the 26°C usually needed for a tropical storm to form. Satellite estimates of 92L's winds were 35 mph at 7:45 am EDT Monday, according to NOAA/NESDIS. NHC estimated that 92L had top winds of 40 mph at 8 am EDT Monday, down 10 mph from Saturday's peak. Wind shear is expected to remain very high and water temperatures will cool as 92L moves northeast towards the Azores Islands on Tuesday and Wednesday, and the chances of the storm developing into a subtropical or tropical cyclone are near zero percent.

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breakingweather twitterde op donderdag 21-06-2012 om 13:46:27 RT @henry_margusity: We should have a storm in the Gulf of Mexico by the end of the weekend or early next week. reageer retweet

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Op donderdag 21 juni 2012 18:51 schreef Co_OL het volgende:
Chris is toch nog een CAT 1 geworden

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Chris eerste orkaan van Atlantische seizoen
Chris is de eerste orkaan van het seizoen in het Atlantische gebied. Dat heeft het Amerikaans Nationale Orkaancentrum (NHC) vandaag bekendgemaakt. De orkaan bevindt zich op 1.000 kilometer van de kust van Newfoundland, in het noordoosten van Canada, en verplaatst zich met een snelheid van 32 km/u richting het noordoosten. De orkaanwind waait met een kracht van 120 km/u.

Verwacht wordt dat de orkaan zich later op de dag naar het noorden verplaatst, en vervolgens richting het noordoosten. In de loop van vrijdag zal de orkaan verzwakken. "Chris wordt dan een post-tropische cycloon", aldus het NHC.

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Noodtoestand Louisiana vanwege storm

(Novum/AP) - NEW ORLEANS - De gouverneur van de Amerikaanse staat Louisiana heeft zondag de noodtoestand afgekondigd in verband met de naderende tropische storm Debby. Door de maatregel van gouverneur Bobby Jindal kan de overheid sneller materieel en mensen inzetten om hulp te bieden bij overstromingen of andere calamiteiten.
Noodtoestand Louisiana vanwege storm

Debby trekt langzaam over de Golf van Mexico en heeft in delen van Florida al voor veel neerslag gezorgd. Volgens de laatste berekeningen kan de storm tegen de tijd dat zij de kust van Louisiana bereikt zijn toegenomen tot orkaankracht.

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Op zondag 24 juni 2012 22:32 schreef aloa het volgende:
GFS blijft volhouden dat Debby over Florida trekt en vervolgens in de Atlantische oceaan terecht komt.

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Op maandag 25 juni 2012 14:28 schreef devzero het volgende:
Het lijkt er op dat Debby hier vlak bij gaat komen. Het is maar goed dat ik niet bij NOAA werk.

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El Nino and the 2012 Hurricane Season

Indications continue to point toward a building El Niño, a pattern that can greatly impact the second half of the hurricane season.

El Niño is part of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which represents a cyclical variation in sea-surface temperatures over the tropical Pacific Ocean.

During the El Niño phase, water is warmer than average in the tropical Pacific. During the La Niña phase, like the past two winters, water is colder than average over the same area.

Both phases of ENSO, along with other factors, can have profound effects on weather patterns around the globe. Although the numbers of both are nearly equal, there are slightly more La Niña than El Niño patterns on record. The strength of both can vary significantly from one similar phase to another.

Simply put, during an El Niño, air is generally rising over the tropical Pacific and generally sinking over the tropical Atlantic.

More technically, wind shear is generally lower on the Pacific side and often higher on the Atlantic side, based on the setup of strong steering winds high in the atmosphere known as the jet stream.

Rising air and low wind shear favors tropical storm and hurricane development, while sinking air and wind shear inhibits it.

Depending on how quickly El Niño develops, there could be a quick shutdown of tropical systems during the latter part of the Atlantic season and tropical cyclones galore and an extended season on the Pacific side.

According to Tropical Weather Expert Dan Kottlowski, "We continue in a lull of activity in the Atlantic now, but not necessarily from a developing El Niño."

"During much of July, we usually see a rather routine separation of the main jet stream with the Atlantic, which often results in a quiet period in terms of tropical cyclones," Kottlowski said.

We currently have disrupting dry air, wind shear and cool waters over the tropical Atlantic.

"Since the jet stream has departed to the north, there are no old frontal zones and upper-level disturbances left in the region from which tropical systems typically form earlier in the season," According to Kottlowski.

These features are deposited by the jet stream.

The main driver of tropical systems during the second half of the hurricane season is the flow of disturbances coming off of Africa, which pass near the Cape Verde Islands in the Atlantic.

This part of the season is also called the Cape Verde season.

The disturbances pick up moisture and often intensify as they move westward over the warm tropical Atlantic waters.

The Cape Verde season ramps up during the second half of the summer and reaches a peak in the early autumn. It often results in long-tracking, powerful hurricanes with Andrew, Hugo and Gloria to name a few.

If the pattern continues with the development of El Niño late in the summer and fall, a number of disturbances could tiptoe along across the Atlantic, only to ramp up near the East and Gulf coast of the United States, where waters are generally much warmer than average.

"The strength of the El Niño has to be considered since a strong El Niño will have more effect than a weak one," Kottlowski added.

There is the possibility that the Atlantic season may be truncated somewhat earlier than average this year due to a moderate El Niño forecast by AccuWeather.com.

However, there could be a pack of formidable storms over several weeks spanning August into September, before the full effects of El Niño come into play.

Only if neutral conditions were to persist, or El Niño only reaches a weak status late in the game, then there would be less truncation and perhaps a more typical length of the Atlantic and Pacific hurricane season.

If El Niño were to crank up strongly early on, it could cut into overall numbers of tropical storms and hurricanes, despite already four (tropical storms) through June.

We expect the number of tropical systems to be near-normal by the end of the season factoring in the early-season and likelihood of the mid-August to mid-September spike. With wind shear, dry air and dust issues now and later over the central Atlantic, there is still the danger of near-U.S. coast hurricane formation and impact mid- to late-season

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Orkaan 1e categorie: windsnelheden van 119 tot 153 km/u en een stormvloed van 1 tot 1,5 meter boven normaal

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Op dinsdag 24 juli 2012 09:34 schreef Frutsel het volgende:

[..]

De NOS meldt dat het een orkaan uit de zwaarste categorie was met snelheden tot 140 km/u. Dit zou echter een Categorie 1 zijn? Iets klopt er niet

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Orkaan Vicente een nachtmerrie voor meteorologen

Orkaan Vicente ging maandagavond op ongeveer 100 kilometer ten zuidwesten van Macao aan land. De orkaan was toen in rap tijd uitgegroeid tot een monsterachtige categorie 4 orkaan met windsnelheden van ver boven de 200 km/u. Het is de zwaarste orkaan die het gebied treft in tien jaar. Meer dan honderd mensen raakten gewond en de orkaan zal vandaag nog veel regen over Zuidoost China brengen, wat de kans op overstromingen en aardverschuivingen aanzienlijk vergroot.

In slechts zes uur tijd wist orkaan Vicente zich te ontwikkelen van een categorie 1 orkaan tot een kolossale categorie 4 orkaan. Windsnelheden liepen op tot 135 mph wat gelijk staat aan 220 km/u. (in tegenstelling tot wat veel Nederlandse bronnen beweren was de snelheid dus vele malen hoger!) Twaalf uur voor de opmerkelijke krachtsinspanning van Vicente waren er nauwelijks aanwijzingen dat de orkaan zo in kracht zou toenemen. Een geluk bij een ongeluk is dat de orkaan de drukbevolkte gebieden van Hong Kong en Macao miste. Er was ook nooit genoeg tijd geweest om mensen te evacueren die normaliter wel zouden zijn geëvacueerd bij de komst van een categorie 4 orkaan.

Indien een soortgelijk scenario zich zou voltrekken voor de kust van Florida, Texas of New Orleans kunnen er wel eens duizenden slachtoffers vallen. Voor weersvoorspellers is Vicente een regelrechte nachtmerrie. De technologie en middelen zullen pas over enkele jaren in staat zijn om dit soort intensivering te voorspellen.

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An Atlantic wave worth watching!
A strong disturbance that moved off the coast of Africa over the Atlantic Ocean earlier this week is being watched for development next week.

According to Tropical Weather Expert Dan Kottlowski, "The system is a bit farther south and is the strongest of the disturbances thus far this season originating from Africa."

Since the system is farther south it is a bit more removed from dry air and dust that has inhibited development of the systems moving westward off of Africa thus far. The dust is still there. However, the amount of dust has backed off a bit in recent days.

"We have reason to believe the feature will start to drift north of west at some point this weekend. Depending on how much of a northward turn occurs later on in the western Atlantic, the system has a chance at developing," Kottlowski said.

The feature will either continue moving westward or could curve to the northwest and north with time next week, if it senses the outer edge of high pressure over the central Atlantic.

"Physics of the feature curving around the high could spark development," Kottlowski added.

The system already has a notable circulation and a weak surface low pressure area.

At the very least there is the potential for a period of showers and thunderstorms in part of the Caribbean islands next week.

Early in the week, the system will be near the Lesser Antilles, but will then push toward the Greater Antilles and/or the Bahamas later next week.

"Typically, during seasons where dust has become an issue, it tends to remain an issue and limit development of systems over much of the season." Kottlowski added.

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Op maandag 30 juli 2012 10:42 schreef Co_OL het volgende:
Aankomende week meer kans op een storm in de Atlantic die de Caribian in gaat

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Op vrijdag 3 augustus 2012 20:17 schreef devzero het volgende:
Het wordt interessant. Want die achter Ernesto is al 50%

QRT: Water level sa La Mesa dam (Aug 6, 2012)

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Engr. Angeles (La Mesa Dam) says LGUs informed dam is overflowing. Forced evacuation strongly recommended.

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THIS JUST IN: La Mesa Dam water level at 80.17m (spilling level: 80.15m). 2cm OVERFLOW in progress.

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Toeristen geëvacueerd in Mexico
Meer dan 1300 toeristen in het zuiden van Mexico zijn geëvacueerd met het oog op de komst van de orkaan Ernesto.

De orkaan kwam tussen 22.00 uur en 23.00 uur lokale tijd (05.00 uur en 06.00 uur Nederlandse tijd) aan land bij de grens met Belize, op het schiereiland Yucatán. Het gebied is een van de grote toeristische trekpleisters van Mexico.

Gisteren veranderde de tropische storm Ernesto in een orkaan met windstoten van 130 kilometer per uur. Naar verwachting zal de orkaan boven land afzwakken.
Schuilplaatsen

De toeristen zijn evenals de plaatselijke bevolking overgebracht naar Chetumal, de hoofdstad van de staat. Daar zijn voldoende schuilplaatsen ingericht. Het vliegveld van Chetumal is gesloten. Er is ook een alarm van kracht voor het gebied tussen Tulum en Cancún, waar altijd veel Nederlanders op vakantie gaan.

Ernesto is de vijfde orkaan van het seizoen in het Caribisch gebied. De zuidkust van Mexico wordt met enige regelmaat zwaar getroffen. In 2007 werd de badplaats Mahahual met de grond gelijk gemaakt door orkaan Dean.

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Orkaan Ernesto houdt huis op Mexicaanse Yucatan
De ondertussen tot tropische storm "gedegradeerde" orkaan Ernesto heeft huisgehouden op het Mexicaanse schiereiland Yucatan. Dat heeft het Amerikaanse Orkaancentrum NHS bekendgemaakt.

Het natuurgeweld rukte bomen en elektriciteitskabels af. Ook zorgde Ernesto voor zware regenval die doet vrezen voor plotselinge overstromingen en grondverschuivingen. Mogelijk wint de storm weer aan kracht wanneer ze de olierijke Golf van Campeche bereikt.

In de Stille Oceaan is de storm Gilma ondertussen tot orkaan van de categorie 1 verheven. Ze bevindt zich op ongeveer 1.170 km ten zuidwesten van het zuidelijkste punt van Beneden-Californië.

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Atlantische orkaanseizoen toch heftiger dan gedacht?
Het orkaanseizoen in de Atlantische Oceaan dreigt dit jaar toch heviger te worden dan gedacht. Dat voorspelde NOAA, de National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Op het einde van het seizoen, eind november, dreigt het gebied twaalf tot zeventien sterke wervelstormen ondergaan te hebben, aldus de weerkundige dienst in Washington. Drie tot vijf van hen kunnen aangroeien tot orkanen. Twee tot drie daarvan dreigen gepaard te gaan met vernietigende windsnelheden van meer dan 178 kilometer per uur.

Tot dusver heeft het 'Atlantic hurricane season', dat op 1 juni begint, zes stormen voortgebracht die sterk genoeg waren om met een naam gedoopt te worden.

Gemiddeld brengt een orkaanseizoen volgens de NOAA elf stormen met namen voort, waaronder zes orkanen.

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Gordon op weg naar Nederlands-Caribisch gebied
Sint Maarten, Sint Eustatius en Saba moeten zich mogelijk opmaken voor de tropische cycloon 'Gordon'. Op de Atlantische Oceaan ten oosten van de eilanden bevindt zich een buiengebied dat aan het samen klonten is. Verwacht wordt dat dit later vandaag de status van een tropische storm krijgt.

Op dit moment levert het lagedrukgebied op de oceaan windkracht 5 tot 7 op en dat is 'niets bijzonders', meldt Weerplaza. De verwachting is dat de depressie westwaards trekt richting de eilanden van de Caribische Zee. De huidige verwachting is gunstig voor de Bovenwindse Eilanden. 'Gordon' trekt namelijk naar Barbados, St. Lucia en Martinique. Bij deze eilanden wordt een storm verwacht, windkracht 9. Die zou dan zondag moeten plaatsvinden. Het buiengebied draagt nu nog codenaam 7.

Verwachtingen
Verwachtingen maken voor tropische cyclonen is echter lastig. De verwachting kan de komende 48 uur dus nog behoorlijk wijzigen. Als er iets wijzigt, kan dat in de verwachte windsnelheid zijn, maar ook in de route. Vaak wordt de route dan eerder noordelijker. En iets noordelijker betekent algauw veel slechter weer op de aan Nederland verbonden eilanden.

Nog geen orkaan
Op dit moment gaan de modellen uit van een storm van 9 Bft. De wind moet toenemen naar 12 Bft voordat deze een tropische orkaan of hurricane genoemd mag worden.

Mocht de verwachte windkracht uitkomen, dan zal de wind geen al te groot gevaar zijn. De zeer zware windstoten kunnen best wat schade aanrichten, maar geen problemen op uitgebreide schaal. Een tropische cycloon gaat echter ook samen met zeer zware regenval. De neerslag kan wel voor overlast zorgen.

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Op woensdag 8 augustus 2012 13:38 schreef aloa het volgende:
De volgende ligt klaar boven Afrika. Dit kan wel eens een zware worden en zal richting de oostkust van de VS trekken.

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Intensity forecast for Isaac in the Gulf of Mexico

Isaac will likely be a 50 - 55 mph tropical storm on Saturday and Sunday as it moves over Cuba, but once the storm pops off the coast of Cuba into the Florida Straits, it will likely intensify. Isaac will be over very warm waters of 31 - 32°C (88 - 90°F) in the Florida Straits, wind shear will be light to moderate, and the upper-level wind pattern will feature an upper-level anticyclone over the storm, aiding its upper-level outflow.

If Isaac makes landfall near the tip of South Florida, as the latest 12Z (8 am EDT) runs of the GFS, HWRF, and GFDL models are suggesting, the 24 hours it has over water before landfall will probably allow it to intensify by 15 - 20 mph. I think the storm is too large for it to increase its winds more than that in just 24 hours.

If Isaac spends a full two days over water after passing the Florida Keys, it is possible that it will have enough time to develop a full eyewall and undergo rapid intensification into a Category 2 or 3 hurricane, though none of the models are currently calling for this to happen. The 11 am EDT NHC wind probability forecast gave Isaac a 7% chance of becoming a Category 2 or 3 hurricane in the Gulf.

While the surface waters in the Gulf of Mexico are very warm, near 30 - 31°C, the total heat content of these waters is unusually low for this time of year. We got lucky with the Gulf of Mexico Loop Current this summer, as it did not shed a big warm eddy during the height of hurricane season, like happened in 2005 (I discuss this in my Gulf of Mexico Loop Current Tutorial.) Without the type of super-high heat energy we had in 2005 in the Gulf of Mexico, I doubt we can get a Category 5 hurricane in the Gulf in 2012.

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Rest of Atlantic Hurricane Season: Most Storms to Avoid U.S

A weather pattern that developed over the central and eastern United States during early September will continue to act as a buffer against major tropical systems through the end of the month.

There is also a possibility the same pattern holds through much of the balance of this Atlantic hurricane season.

According to Expert Senior Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski, head of the AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center, "Westerly winds have broken through over the middle and upper levels of the atmosphere over the central and eastern U.S. and nearby coastal waters."

These winds and the dry air they bring are generally too disruptive for tropical storms or hurricanes to form in nearby coastal waters and tend to cause tropical systems coming from afar to avoid the Gulf and Atlantic coasts of the U.S.

There are some areas that are still somewhat vulnerable to direct impact from a tropical storm or hurricane, if they form.

"The most likely candidates would be the Caribbean islands, Central America, Atlantic Canada and the islands of Bermuda and the Azores in the Central Atlantic," Kottlowski said.

It is not uncommon to see the westerlies break through later in October and November over the U.S. and to have brief episodes of the same during September and early October.

"We keep seeing an upper-level trough of low pressure reappear in the central and eastern U.S. this month with only very brief episodes when it is not present," Kottlowski added.

There is still a chance that a window of opportunity opens up for a tropical system to move close to or form near the U.S., but the persistence of the trough pattern tends to cut the odds.

According to Expert Senior Meteorologist Brett Anderson, "During this October, it is possible the southern extent of the trough becomes shallow enough for less wind shear and dry air in the Gulf of Mexico, but that in itself is not a guarantee for development."

All it takes is one storm sneaking in during one of those open windows, and as we have seen with Isaac, it does not have to be a Category 3 or higher hurricane to cause major damage and endanger lives. Isaac was officially a Category 1 hurricane at landfall.

As of the week ending Sept. 21, the only two systems of note in the Atlantic were Nadine, near the Azores, and a potential system between Bermuda and the Azores.

While the rest of September appears as though it will be quiet for the U.S. mainland, there have been some destructive and deadly storms during October.

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Tyfoon maakt slachtoffers op de Filipijnen
Een hevige tyfoon heeft op de Filipijnen duizenden mensen op de vlucht gejaagd en twee dodelijke slachtoffers geëist. 'Jelawat' won vandaag langs de oostelijke kust op weg naar het noorden nog aan kracht, aldus de weerdiensten. De tyfoon haalt windsnelheden van 240 kilometer per uur.

Het beheer van natuurrampen heeft haar eenheden in de hoogste staat van paraatheid gebracht. In het zuiden van het land zorgde de hevige regen voor overstromingen. Een vijfjarige jongen kwam om toen hij door een omgewaaide boom geraakt werd. Een 31-jarige man werd door de bliksem getroffen. Daarnaast is een 27-jarige vermist in het zuiden van de eilandstaat.

In de zuidelijke provincie Zamboanga del Norte moesten ongeveer 2.000 bewoners in veiligheid gebracht worden. Daar viel in een 800 kilometer lange zone hevige regen. Enkele straten raakten versperd door aardverschuivingen. Het water staat op sommige plaatsen een meter hoog.

De stad Zamboanga riep de noodtoestand uit, waardoor het gebied financiële steun krijgt. Volgens burgemeester Celso Lobregat hebben 9.000 mensen dringend hulp nodig.

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U.S. winter storm names for winter of 2012 - 2013
Athena -- The Greek goddess of wisdom, courage, inspirations, justice, mathematics and all things wonderful

Brutus -- Roman Senator and best known assassin of Julius
Caesar -- Title used by Roman and Byzantine Emperors 

Draco -- The first legislator of Athens in Ancient
Euclid -- A mathematician in Ancient Greece, the Father of Geometry
Freyr -- A Norse god associated with fair weather, among other things

Gandolf -- A character in a 1896 fantasy novel in a pseudo-medieval countryside

Helen – In Greek mythology, Helen of Troy was the daughter of Zeus

Iago -- Enemy of Othello in Shakespeare’s play, Othello

Jove -- The English name for Jupiter, the Roman god of light and sky.

Kahn -- Mongolian conqueror and emperor of the Mongol Empire

Luna -- The divine embodiment of the moon in Roman mythology

Magnus -- The Father of Europe, Charlemagne the Great, in Latin: Carolus Magnus 

Nemo -- A Greek boy’s name meaning “from the valley”, means “nobody” in Latin 

Orko -- The thunder god in Basque mythology

Plato -- Greek philosopher and mathematician, who was named by his wrestling coach

Q -- The Broadway Express subway line in New York City

Rocky -- A single mountain in the Rockies

Saturn -- Roman god of time, among other things who had a planet named after him

Triton -- In Greek mythology, the messenger of the deep sea, son of Poseidon

Ukko -- In Finnish mythology, the god of the sky and weather

Virgil -- One of ancient Rome’s greatest poets

Walda -- Name from Old German meaning “ruler”

Xerxes -- The fourth king of the Persian Achaemenid Empire, Xerxes the Great

Yogi -- People who do yoga

Zeus -- In Greek mythology, the supreme ruler of Mount Olympus and the gods who lived there

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A tropical wave located about 500 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands (Invest 98L) is headed west-northwest at about 15 mph, and is a threat to develop into a tropical depression early next week. The disturbance has a modest amount of spin and a large amount of disorganized heavy thunderstorms, as seen on satellite loops, but there is no sign of a surface circulation. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over 98L, the atmosphere is moist, and ocean temperatures are a very warm 30°C. With wind shear expected to rise to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, Wednesday night though Friday, any development the next few days should be slow. The shear is due to an upper-level trough of low pressure centered a few hundred miles northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands. Once 98L passes beyond the Lesser Antilles on Saturday, the shearing winds of the trough will diminish to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots. Most of the models predict that 98L will show increasing development beginning on Saturday. The NOGAPS model has 98L developing into a tropical depression on Monday, a few hundred miles northeast of the southeastern Bahama Islands. The GFS model is much slower with the system, predicting it will develop into a tropical depression on Monday, a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico. Moisture from 98L should affect the Lesser Antilles Islands on Thursday and Friday, and Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands on Friday and Saturday. It is uncertain if heavy rains from 98L will affect the Dominican Republic early next week; the storm may stay too far to the northeast. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 98L a 30% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone by Friday morning. The long range fate of 98L is uncertain; the ECMWF model shows 98L becoming absorbed by a cold front and bringing heavy rains to Canada and New England on Tuesday and Wednesday next week, while the GFS and NOGAPS models predict that 98L will stay out to sea for at least the next week.

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Rafael richting Bermuda
De tropische storm Rafael, die afstevent op Bermuda, is boven de Atlantische Oceaan aangezwollen tot orkaankracht. Dat meldt het Amerikaanse National Hurricane Center.

De negende tropische storm van het Atlantische orkaanseizoen heeft windsnelheden van boven de 120 kilometer per uur bereikt. Naar verwachting zal Rafael vandaag Bermuda ten oosten passeren.

Bermuda is een rijk Brits overzees gebied dat in de periode juni tot november wordt geteisterd door stormen en orkanen. Het eiland is goed voorbereid en grote schade of slachtoffers zijn zeldzaam.

Boven de Stille Oceaan koerst orkaan Paul intussen af op de westkust van Mexico. De storm wordt dinsdagavond (plaatselijk tijd) boven land verwacht en is inmiddels afgezwakt van categorie 3 naar 2, aldus het Hurricane Center. Voor het gebied Santa Fe, Punta Abrejos tot het westelijke Baja Peninsula is een orkaanwaarschuwing afgegeven.

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BigJoeBastardi twitterde op maandag 22-10-2012 om 09:00:48 Ecmwf/Canadian continue in weatherbell camp of possible historic weather event on east coast. GFS looks out of touch http://t.co/AxfxkeCo reageer retweet

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BigJoeBastardi twitterde op maandag 22-10-2012 om 14:56:24 if Sandy gets trapped, pulled in,would be once in a lifetime event for east. hurricane hitting coast, heavy snows mtns west reageer retweet

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BigJoeBastardi twitterde op maandag 22-10-2012 om 14:58:22 The amazing thing about all this is the PATTERN argues for it.. large scale very similar to Hazel, 1954. Weatherbell posts, video, discuss reageer retweet

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BigJoeBastardi twitterde op maandag 22-10-2012 om 14:59:01 The other 2 options.. Wilma, escaping hurricane but storm forms anyway, lashes ne, but not as bad, and the least likely, nothing reageer retweet

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Op maandag 29 oktober 2012 15:17 schreef kibo het volgende:
Worden de orkanen in de USA elk jaar verwoestender of lijkt dat maar zo doordat er steeds meer een media-spektakel van gemaakt word?

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Op maandag 29 oktober 2012 18:20 schreef bazb het volgende:
Hurricane Sandy
Ik neem aan dat ik vanavond en vannacht hier weer een uitgebreid verslag kan verwachten?

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'Sandy was slechts voorproefje voor wat nog komen gaat'
Het smelten van het poolijs, de opwarming van de atmosfeer, de stijging van de zeespiegel, verandering in de weersomstandigheden: deze factoren vormen een krachtige combinatie die stormen en golven van ongekende intensiteit veroorzaken. We zouden helemaal niet verbaasd moeten zijn over een storm als Sandy, is de mening van klimaatwetenschappers, meldt CNN.

'Superstorm Sandy is slechts een voorproefje van wat er nog komen gaat', vertelt Michael Oppenheimer, klimaatwetenschapper aan de Princeton University. 'De grotere stormen gecombineerd met de stijgende zeespiegel veroorzaken een grotere dreiging.'

Vorig jaar werd de VS door orkaan Irene getroffen. Eerder dit jaar publiceerde Oppenheimer in wetenschapsblad Nature een onderzoek over deze orkaan en concludeerde dat de 'storm van de eeuw' zou veranderen in de 'storm van iedere twintig jaar of minder'.

Intensiteit
In de toekomst zullen die stormen steeds groter en krachtiger worden. 'Door de klimaatverandering zal de intensiteit en omvang van de storm waarschijnlijk toenemen', schreef Oppenheimer. Sandy had een diameter van bijna 1500 kilometer, veel groter dan eerdere stormen.

Maar ook het wegsmelten van een metersdikke ijslaag van de Noordpool in de zomer wordt gekoppeld aan de veranderende weersomstandigheden. De afgelopen drie decennia is het zee-ijs in de Noordelijke IJszee drastisch gedaald. 'Het zee-ijs wat nu overblijft in de zomer, is veel dunner dan vroeger', zegt Walter Meier van de National Snow and Ice Data Center van de Amerikaanse Universiteit van Colorado. 'Het is alsof je de koelkastdeur openhoudt.'

Straalstroom
Onderzoeker Jennifer Francis van het Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences aan Rutgers University ontdekte dat door de opwarming van de Noordpool de straalstroom (een zeer sterke wind op een hoogte van 10 kilometer) langzamer gaat. Hierdoor slingert de stroom meer, zoiets kan resulteren in een 'weerblok'.

Deze verandering van de straalstroom kan koude lucht van de Noordpool verder naar het zuiden duwen, evenals warme tropische lucht naar het noorden. 'Dat is wat er zo ongeveer deze week gebeurde', zegt Francis, 'een spectaculaire botsing tussen Arctische en tropische weerfronten'.

Maatregelen
Volgens Oppenheimer en anderen is er dringend behoefte aan corrigerende maatregelen - zoals het verhogen van metro-ingangen en het versterken van de onderste verdiepingen van gebouwen - om de gevolgen van stormen als Sandy in de toekomst te beperken.

Door de historisch zware storm hebben miljoenen Amerikanen nog dagenlang last van de omvangrijke schade. Sandy heeft in de Amerikaanse staat New Jersey aan ten minste 39 mensen het leven gekost