Hurricane Season 2012 # 1

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Irina flood threat to Southeast Africa
Irena has unleashed gusty winds and heavy rainfall to parts of Mozambique, South Africa and Madagascar this week.

As of Sunday, EST, the center of Tropical Cyclone Irina (14S) was near 27.6 south and 34.1 east, or about 120 miles southeast of Maputo, Mozambique. Movement was to the south at 10 mph. Maximum sustained winds were near 45 mph with gusts to 55 mph.

Current satellite shows only scattered convection around the center of the system which continues to limit the intensity of the system.

Tropical Cyclone Irina will move in a southerly direction over the next 24 hours. Irina is expected to remain off the southern Mozambique and northern South Africa coast during this time. This will bring wind and rounds of locally heavy rain to the coast; however, given that the storm is so small, impacts will be limited to coastal areas.

A trough crossing the southern part of the continent will attempt to pull Irina to the southeast as it moves nearby, but it is expected to miss this connection and return back to the north and west making landfall on Wednesday or Wednesday night in southern Mozambique as a minimal cyclone.

Given this expected track, coastal wind damage and flooding problems are expected from northeast South Africa into southern Mozambique through the middle of the week.

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Tropische storm en minitornado vernielen Townsville
Een tropische storm heeft in het noorden van Australië lelijk huisgehouden in het stadje Townsville. De mini-wervelstorm, die snelheden haalde van meer dan 110 km/u, vernielde in de vroege ochtend een zestigtal gebouwen. Dertien mensen raakten gewond. De storm rukte tientallen daken van de huizen, knapte stroomleidingen en blies auto's en bomen omver. De stad aan de oostkust van het continent werd tot rampgebied uitgeroepen.

Anna Bligh kwam als premier van de deelstaat Queensland al een kijkje nemen. "Ik ben gechoqueerd door de omvang van de schade. Enkele slachtoffers zullen gedurende maanden niet meer kunnen terugkeren naar hun huis."

"Het hele huis daverde op zijn grondvesten, vooral de bovenste verdieping. Het lawaai was oorverdovend", aldus bewoonster Erin Matinca op televisiezender ABC. Ze werd wakker toen de wind de meubelen in het huis had omvergeworpen. "We moesten in de gang blijven, dat was de enige plaats die veilig was voor rondvliegend vensterglas."

Aanhangwagen paar huizen verder
De ware omvang van de vernieling was pas bij dageraad zichtbaar, vertelde Tony Ebon. De storm had zijn twee ton zware aanhangwagen een paar huizen verder geblazen. Shane Fayers en zijn gezin vluchtten in het toilet van hun woning toen de storm hun huis vernielde. Dak en muren werden weggerukt.

"Het duurde slechts een tiental minuten. Ik kon voelen hoe het huis werd uiteengereten. Dat was redelijk wild", zei Fayers. Soldaten van een nabijgelegen kazerne zijn opgeroepen om mee de schade te helpen opruimen.

Townsville - Small Tornado March 20th 2012 Ch7News

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Hurricane Season 2012: Below average
A cooler Atlantic Ocean will probably produce 10 named storms in the hurricane season that begins June 1, about half last year’s total, according to researchers at Colorado State University.

Of those systems, four will probably become hurricanes with winds of at least 74 miles (119 kilometers) per hour and two may grow into major storms with winds of 111 mph or more, according to the forecast.

“What we’re expecting right now is a somewhat below- average hurricane season compared to the 1981 to 2010 average,” said Phil Klotzbach, lead author of the forecast begun at the university 29 years ago by Bill Gray, a pioneer in long-range hurricane predictions. “The take-home message with all of our forecasts is that it is kind of our best estimate, but it only takes one storm to make it an active season for you.”

The season, which runs through Nov. 30, is closely watched because the storms are a threat to oil and natural gas interests in the Gulf of Mexico and agriculture in the South. The Gulf accounts for 29 percent of U.S. oil output and 40 percent of refining capacity, while Florida is the second-largest citrus producer behind Brazil.

Last year, Colorado State predicted in April that there would be 16 named storms. Nineteen developed, tying with 2010, 1995 and 1887 for the third-most active season, based on records dating back to 1851.
Weather Patterns

Klotzbach said larger weather patterns will probably have an impact on the number of storms in the Atlantic this year.

The Pacific Ocean may experience an El Nino warming, which will increase wind shear across the Atlantic, he said. Wind shear tears at the structure of hurricanes and can keep weaker systems from growing into larger storms.

The possibility of the Pacific warming to levels needed to create additional Atlantic shear is still uncertain, based on computer models, Klotzbach said.

The models are bad at making predictions about El Nino during the Northern Hemisphere’s spring from March to June, said Mike Halpert, deputy director of the U.S. Climate Prediction Center in Camp Springs, Maryland.

“This is absolutely the worst time of year to try to forecast,” Halpert said.

In addition to the warmth of the Pacific, temperatures at the surface of the Atlantic also play a role in determining how many hurricanes will form, Klotzbach said.
Atlantic Cooling

The Atlantic surface has cooled in part because of the weather pattern that left the eastern U.S. warmer than normal this past winter. A cooler Atlantic, especially off the coast of Africa, means there is less energy for storms to draw on as they develop, Klotzbach said.

The Colorado State outlook is in line with those from commercial forecasters MDA EarthSat Weather in Gaithersburg, Maryland, and Commodity Weather Group LLC in Bethesda, Maryland.

Both companies predicted 11 storms for this year.

The average season produces 12 named systems, six of which become hurricanes with three developing into major storms, according to Dennis Feltgen, spokesman for the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

Irene, which went ashore in North Carolina, New Jersey and New York in August, was the first hurricane to strike the U.S. since Ike hit near Galveston, Texas, in 2008. There hasn’t been a major hurricane landfall since Wilma in 2005, the longest such stretch on record.

A storm gets a name when its winds reach 39 mph. Based on the averages from 1966 to 2009, the first of the season usually occurs by July 9 and the first hurricane by Aug. 10.

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Forecast 2012
AccuWeather's 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season forecasts 12 named tropical storms, five named hurricanes and two major hurricanes.

The 2012 hurricane forecast is near-normal for the Atlantic Basin.

Potential Impact This Year
Predicting exactly where storms will make landfall in the U.S. would be extremely difficult, but there are some indications of areas where storms may brew and coasts that may be vulnerable based on weather patterns anticipated this summer.

"Home-grown" storms in the western Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico, near the U.S. Coast, are a possibility this year.

"Fronts coming down during June and July could cause energy to break off and develop tropically," Paul Pastelok, AccuWeather.com lead long-range forecaster, said.

"Another big storm is possible for the East Coast with heavy, flooding rain," Pastelok added. "With a ridge [of high pressure] over the Rockies and a trough [of low pressure] over the Great Lakes and Appalachians, the East Coast will be open for a hit [this summer]. Of course, this depends on where the storms form."

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Signs of tropical activity in Caribbean later this month
While an area is being watched in the Eastern Pacific for tropical development early this week, the Caribbean could show some signs of life later this month.

A broad area of low pressure is expected to form very slowly in the area around Central America and the western Caribbean.

Folks living in the region around Central America to Cuba, Jamaica, The Bahamas and South Florida should not be overly concerned at this point.

Chances are this system will never become strong or well organized.

However, it could spread a swath of downpours over the region. Even a weak, disorganized system can produce clusters of heavy, gusty thunderstorms, which would be a problem for pleasure boaters, beach goers and fishing interests.

According to Tropical Weather Expert Dan Kottlowski, "This is likely to end up like about a dozen or so systems during the season that do not reach tropical storm status."

"The system will not have any tropical waves coming in from the east to give it a jump start, but a non-tropical feature arriving from the northwest next week may just help create a broad area of low pressure or gyre," Kottlowski added.

We are in a neutral phase of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This is the fluctuation of sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean.

When the tropical Pacific surface water is warmer than average, it is considered an El Nino, When it is cooler than average it is considered La Nina.

During an El Nino, (warm water phase) air tends to rise over the tropical Pacific Ocean, supporting the formation of tropical cyclones. Correspondingly, air tends to sink over the Atlantic, working against the formation of tropical cyclones.

It tends to work just the opposite during a La Nina phase of the ENSO.

"Since we are in a neutral phase, we should not expect any substantial interference or gain at this point of the season by the ENSO," Kottlowski said.

The start of the Atlantic hurricane season is not until June 1, but tropical storms have formed as early as January and February with hurricanes as early as March.

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Op zondag 6 mei 2012 22:06 schreef aloa het volgende:
Nog ver weg. De eerste storm in de Pacific (oost)??

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Azoren low pressure system unlikely to develop
The hybrid low pressure system with both tropical and extratropical characteristics that formed Saturday over the far Eastern Atlantic, about 450 miles southwest of the southern Azores Islands (Invest 92L), has weakened considerably, and is unlikely to become Subtropical Storm Alberto. Wind shear has increased to a very high 25 - 40 knots over 92L today, causing a marked deterioration of the heavy thunderstorm activity. Also not helping is the fact 92L is over cold ocean waters of 68°F (20°C.) This is well below the 26°C usually needed for a tropical storm to form. Satellite estimates of 92L's winds were 35 mph at 7:45 am EDT Monday, according to NOAA/NESDIS. NHC estimated that 92L had top winds of 40 mph at 8 am EDT Monday, down 10 mph from Saturday's peak. Wind shear is expected to remain very high and water temperatures will cool as 92L moves northeast towards the Azores Islands on Tuesday and Wednesday, and the chances of the storm developing into a subtropical or tropical cyclone are near zero percent.

twitter:

breakingweather twitterde op donderdag 21-06-2012 om 13:46:27 RT @henry_margusity: We should have a storm in the Gulf of Mexico by the end of the weekend or early next week. reageer retweet