Forecast 2006 : Danger for US East Coast - Busy/Dangerous YearThe nation's most prominent hurricane forecaster and his team Tuesday [u]updated predictions for the 2006 season, echoing an earlier report[u]:
It will be a busy and dangerous year.But one item in Dr. William Gray's newest report is causing
concern for the East Coast of the United States. The Colorado State University scientist said there is a 64% chance of a major hurricane making landfall in the region. The average for the last century is 31%, Gray said.
In this case, the East Coast is defined as a region stretching from Cedar Key on Florida's west coast up to Maine, said Larry Mowry, meteorologist for Orlando's WKMG-TV.
"These are the highest percentages for this area in the last four years," Mowry said.Otherwise, Gray stuck with projections from his December 2005 forecast: There will be 17 tropical storms, nine of them strengthening to hurricane status and five of those becoming major hurricanes with sustained winds of 111 mph or higher.
Last year, the Atlantic Basin had a record 27 tropical storms — so many that the National Hurricane Center had to turn to the Greek alphabet for names. Of these storms, 15 grew into hurricanes with sustained winds of 74 mph or higher and seven became major hurricanes with winds more than 110 mph.
The historic average is 10 tropical storms, six hurricanes and 2.5 intense hurricanes.The new forecast has a silver lining in the storm clouds — scientists believe the next two years will be calmer than the 2004-05 seasons.
"Even though we expect to see the current active period of Atlantic major hurricane activity to continue for another 15-20 years, it is statistically unlikely that the coming 2006 and 2007 hurricane seasons, or the seasons which follow, will have the number of major hurricane U.S. landfall events as we have seen in 2004-2005," the Colorado State scientists said.
Scientists said a La Nina pattern exists in the Pacific Ocean, which can lead to a busy hurricane season.
The Colorado State atmospheric team said either neutral or weak La Nina conditions are expected to be present during the June 1 to Nov. 30 Atlantic hurricane season.
La Nina is marked by cool sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, meaning there will be fewer thunderstorms that can shear off the tops of budding hurricanes in the Atlantic.
On the other hand, El Nino is marked by warmer-than-normal sea temperatures, which can lead to more thunderstorms capable of capping hurricane activity