Hurricane Season 2006 #1

Tis makkelijk gezegd Francorex..
Denk als je het ijs naar de warme wateren brengt, waardoor je de warme Golfstroom uit balans brengt we nog veel verder van huis geraken, dan door die orkanen..

Even terugkomend op een eerdere Quote..
Floyd gaat nu toch een bedreiging worden voor het NoordWesten van de Australische kust.
Gelukkig is ie dan al afgezwakt tot Tropische Storm. Het was een categorie 3 storm op de oceaan.

Nu Floyd genoeg regen heeft gebracht kan hetzelfde NoordWesten van Australië zich opmaken voor Tropical CYCLONE Glenda



[ Bericht 3% gewijzigd door Frutsel op 28-03-2006 13:32:46 ]

klopt...volgens deze site
http://www.solar.ifa.hawaii.edu/Tropical/Data/GLENDA-06.html

bereikt Glenda op de 29e snelheden van 150 (uitlopend tot 180) knots.
Volgens mij is dat ca 280 km/u....

Kan dus een extreem gevaarlijke storm worden....maar volgens onderstaand plaatje gaat het met name om de 30e en 31e voor ie land gaat bedreigen en wllicht afzwakt tot een cat.3 storm... maar nog altijd krachtig tot zeer krachtig

LOL, had me antwoord net aangepast, maar je had al gereageerd zie ik

quote:

Op dinsdag 28 maart 2006 13:44 schreef Againzender het volgende:

[..]

ik had dan ook niet de moeite genomen van die mooie plaatjes er bij te zoeken waarvoor dank!

Geen dank

En dan hier maar mensen zeuren over de 'storm' van gister en die in Hamburg...
das niets vergeleken met dit 'monster'...

PERTH - Australië zet zich schrap voor de tweede zware cycloon in twee weken. De cycloon Glenda is met windsnelheden van 280 kilometer per uur ingedeeld in de hoogste categorie van de schaal van Saffir-Simpson. De cycloon beweegt zich nu nog parallel aan de westkust van Australië, maar komt naar verwachting later deze week in het dunbevolkte mijngebied Pilbara aan land.

Het Australische bureau voor meteorologie waarschuwde woensdag bewoners van Pilbara voor de vernietigende kracht van Glenda.


Twee weken geleden ramde een andere cycloon in de hoogste categorie, Larry, het noordoosten van Australië. Daardoor ontstond grote schade aan honderden woningen en gewassen, goed voor een schade van naar schatting 640 miljoen euro.

Ik denk dat ze 'mazzel' hebben daar...hij zwakt ook weer behoorlijk snel af...

mooie foto van Glenda nog

Forecast 2006 : Danger for US East Coast - Busy/Dangerous Year

The nation's most prominent hurricane forecaster and his team Tuesday [u]updated predictions for the 2006 season, echoing an earlier report[u]: It will be a busy and dangerous year.

But one item in Dr. William Gray's newest report is causing concern for the East Coast of the United States. The Colorado State University scientist said there is a 64% chance of a major hurricane making landfall in the region. The average for the last century is 31%, Gray said.

In this case, the East Coast is defined as a region stretching from Cedar Key on Florida's west coast up to Maine, said Larry Mowry, meteorologist for Orlando's WKMG-TV.

"These are the highest percentages for this area in the last four years," Mowry said.

Otherwise, Gray stuck with projections from his December 2005 forecast: There will be 17 tropical storms, nine of them strengthening to hurricane status and five of those becoming major hurricanes with sustained winds of 111 mph or higher.

Last year, the Atlantic Basin had a record 27 tropical storms — so many that the National Hurricane Center had to turn to the Greek alphabet for names. Of these storms, 15 grew into hurricanes with sustained winds of 74 mph or higher and seven became major hurricanes with winds more than 110 mph.

The historic average is 10 tropical storms, six hurricanes and 2.5 intense hurricanes.



The new forecast has a silver lining in the storm clouds — scientists believe the next two years will be calmer than the 2004-05 seasons.

"Even though we expect to see the current active period of Atlantic major hurricane activity to continue for another 15-20 years, it is statistically unlikely that the coming 2006 and 2007 hurricane seasons, or the seasons which follow, will have the number of major hurricane U.S. landfall events as we have seen in 2004-2005," the Colorado State scientists said.

Scientists said a La Nina pattern exists in the Pacific Ocean, which can lead to a busy hurricane season.

The Colorado State atmospheric team said either neutral or weak La Nina conditions are expected to be present during the June 1 to Nov. 30 Atlantic hurricane season.

La Nina is marked by cool sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, meaning there will be fewer thunderstorms that can shear off the tops of budding hurricanes in the Atlantic.

On the other hand, El Nino is marked by warmer-than-normal sea temperatures, which can lead to more thunderstorms capable of capping hurricane activity

En inmiddels komt de Volgende Cycloon op het noordwesten af.

Cyclone HUBERT gaat ook ook categorie 3-4 bereiken

April 6, 2006 — Hurricanes Dennis, Katrina, Rita, Stan and Wilma, all from the historic 2005 Atlantic hurricane season, were "retired" by an international hurricane committee of the World Meteorological Organization, which includes the NOAA National Hurricane Center, during their annual meeting in San Juan, Puerto Rico. Now retired, these five storms, part of last season's record-setting 27 named storms and 15 hurricanes, will not reappear on the list of potential storm names that is otherwise recycled every six years. (Click NOAA illustration for larger view of Hurricanes Dennis, Katrina, Rita and Wilma. Click here for high resolution version. Please credit “NOAA.”)

Dennis, Katrina, Rita, Stan and Wilma represent the type of devastating storm that is "retired" for causing a large loss of life and property. These names will not be used again for sensitivity reasons and to establish distinction within the scientific and legal communities.

For 2011, Dennis, Katrina, Rita, Stan and Wilma have been replaced with Don, Katia, Rina, Sean and Whitney, respectively.

Since tropical cyclones were first named in 1953, 67 names have been retired (the first being Carol and Hazel in 1954), and with a total of five, 2005 has the most retired storm names in a single season (previous record: four in 1955, 1995 and 2004).

A synopsis of the newly retired storms:

Dennis began its path of destruction in early July while passing between Jamaica and Haiti and then crossing Cuba with estimated top winds of 140 mph. After tracking north across the eastern Gulf of Mexico, Dennis came ashore on Santa Rosa Island, Fla., as a Category 3 hurricane on July 10 with top winds estimated at 120 mph. At least 54 deaths are directly or indirectly attributed to Dennis, including 15 in the U.S, most from within Florida.
Katrina became the costliest and one of the deadliest hurricanes in U.S. history with damage costs exceeding $50 billion and fatalities, directly and indirectly, topping 1,300. Katrina came ashore at Buras, La., as a Category 3 hurricane on August 29 with top winds estimated at 125 mph. Additionally, Katrina was a Category 1 hurricane when it first struck the U.S. near the Broward/Miami-Dade County line in Florida on August 24 after bringing tropical storm conditions to the northern Bahamas.
Rita made landfall in extreme southwestern Louisiana, near the Texas border, as a Category 3 hurricane with top winds of 115 mph on September 24. Rita reached Category 5 strength with top winds estimated at 180 mph over the central Gulf of Mexico, where it had the fourth-lowest central pressure on record (895 millibars) in the Atlantic Basin. Rita produced a significant storm surge that devastated coastal communities in southwestern Louisiana, and its wind, rain, and tornadoes caused fatalities and a wide swath of damage from eastern Texas to Alabama. Rita also produced storm surge flooding in parts of the Florida Keys as the storm's center passed between the Keys and Cuba en route to the Gulf Coast.
Stan, in combination with other weather features, produced torrential rainfall in Mexico and Central America where the combined death toll is estimated to be as high as 2,000. Stan first crossed Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula as a tropical storm, then moved southwest across the Bay of Campeche and hit as a Category 1 hurricane about 90 miles southeast of Veracruz, Mexico, on October 4.
Wilma was an extremely intense Category 5 hurricane over the northwestern Caribbean Sea with estimated tops winds of 185 mph and the all-time lowest central pressure (882 millibars) for an Atlantic Basin hurricane. A slow-moving Wilma devastated coastal areas of the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico as a Category 4 hurricane. It later raced into South Florida—coming ashore near Cape Romano, Fla., at Category 3 intensity with top winds estimated at 120 mph on October 24—and inflicting extensive damage.
Names for the upcoming 2006 season, which begins June 1, include Alberto, Beryl, Chris, Debby, Ernesto, Florence, Gordon, Helene, Isaac, Joyce, Kirk, Leslie, Michael, Nadine, Oscar, Patty, Rafael, Sandy, Tony, Valerie, William. On this list Kirk replaces Keith, which was retired following its impact on Mexico and Belize in 2000.

NOAA, an agency of the U.S. Department of Commerce, is dedicated to enhancing economic security and national safety through the prediction and research of weather and climate-related events and providing environmental stewardship of the nation's coastal and marine resources.

Through the emerging Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS), NOAA is working with its federal partners, 61 countries and the European Commission to develop a global network that is as integrated as the planet it observes, predicts and protects.

Relevant Web Sites

Cyclone Monica komt rond de 19e april weer bij de noordkust van Australië aan

Het kon wel eens een hele zware worden als ik de rode lijntjes zo volg....

quote:

Op woensdag 19 april 2006 21:26 schreef aloa het volgende:
Ik las hier dat ze in Australie een andere orkaanschaal gebruiken, dan die ze in de VS hanteren. Categorie 3, in Australie, is op de Amerikaanse schaal categorie 2. Knap verwarrend dan....

Das wel lekker dan... idd Hier nog een leuke foto van Monica



dus het wordt een Categorie 5 in de baai na het stukje land wat je hierboven weergeeft.
Hoe zit het met de bevolking van Australie in het deel erna? Darwin is de grootste stad lijkt me, dat ligt echter ten westen... die zullen flink wat wind en regen krijgen... maar de oostkust van Northern Territory lijkt de volle laag te krijgen

Categorie 5 dus.

quote:

Op zondag 23 april 2006 02:05 schreef Drugshond het volgende:
cat 5 nu al in april ?

Nu 'pas'... het australische seizoen loopt eigenlijk tot mei... terwijl er inderdaad in April een 'piek' kan zijn... Zie openingspost...

quote:

Op zondag 23 april 2006 02:15 schreef Drugshond het volgende:

[..]

Bier enzo.
ff vrolijk meelurken. (was een verkapte tvp)

whehehe...grappug dat je dat zegt...
heb de lege grolsch voor me staan..
heb de openingspost vier keer gelezen voor ik eigenlijk beseft wat daar nu stond en dacht: kut..
en de vijfde keer dacht ik: ah toch wel piek in april...lol..
dus ik snap je

Experts Link Global Warming to Hurricanes 2005

MONTEREY, California (Reuters) -- The record Atlantic hurricane season last year can be attributed to global warming, several top experts, including a leading U.S. government storm researcher, said on Monday.

"The hurricanes we are seeing are indeed a direct result of climate change and it's no longer something we'll see in the future, it's happening now," said Greg Holland, a division director at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado.

Holland told a packed hall at the American Meteorological Society's 27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology that the wind and warmer water conditions that fuel storms that form in the Caribbean are "increasingly due to greenhouse gases. There seems to be no other conclusion you can logically draw."

His conclusion will be debated throughout the week-long conference, as other researchers present opposing papers that say changing wind and temperature conditions in the tropics are due to natural events, not the accumulation of carbon dioxide emissions clouding the Earth.

Many of the experts gathered in the coastal city of Monterey, California, are federal employees. The Bush administration contends global warming is an unproven theory.

While many of the conference's 500 scientists seem to agree that a warming trend in the tropics is causing more and stronger hurricanes than usual, not all agree that global warming is to blame.

Some, like William Gray, a veteran hurricane researcher at Colorado State University in Fort Collins, Colorado, attributed the warming to natural cycles.

Gray said he believes salinity buildups and movements with ocean currents cause warming and cooling cycles. He predicted the Caribbean water will continue to warm for another five to 10 years, then start cooling.

More warming to come
Whatever the cause, computer projections indicate the warming to date -- about one degree Fahrenheit (half a degree Celsius) in tropical water -- is "the tip of the iceberg" and the water will warm three to four times as much in the next century, said Thomas Knutson, explaining projections from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory in Princeton, New Jersey.

Adam Lea, a postdoctoral student at Britain's University College London in Dorking, Surrey, presented research based on British, German, Russian and Canadian studies that concludes half of the increased hurricane activity in the tropics could be attributed to global warming.

Holland, director of the Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Division of the federal research center, said tropical storm anomalies in the 1940s and 1950s can be explained by natural variability.

But he said carbon dioxide started changing traceable patterns in the 1970s and by the early 1990s, the atmospheric results were affecting the storm numbers and intensities.

"What we're seeing right now in global climate temperature is a signature of climate change," said Holland, a native of Australia. "The large bulk of the scientific community say what we are seeing now is linked directly to greenhouse gases."

Hurricane Katrina, which tore onto the Louisiana and Mississippi coasts on August 29, was the deadliest Atlantic hurricane in 77 years and the costliest ever, with property damages estimated at $75 billion.

This year, the weather service's Tropical Prediction Center expects more hurricanes than usual, but not as many as last year's record 14.

Typhoon Mala in Zuid Oost Azie...

Mala wordt mogelijk toch nog een bedreiging voor Myanmar
Zie ook bovenstaand traject.

quote:

Op vrijdag 28 april 2006 08:39 schreef Light het volgende:
Is Mala nu eigenlijk de start voor het seizoen op het noordelijk halfrond?

HMM...kweetnie...... in Maart zat er ook al een cycloon in deze regio...
Weet niet in hoeverre het Noordelijk Halfrond echt een 'begin' kent. Het Noord Indische Oceaanseizoen begint in April... met een piek in Mei... dus het zal hier wel 'beginnen' inderdaad.

Interessante theorie Thijs... zou het niet weten...
Misschien heeft het ook te maken dat de orkanen in de Atlantische oceaan meer 'kans' hebben om uit te groeien en dichter bij land zitten waar de media er boven op springt. Grote Oceaan is veel groter. Je hoort er gewoon minder over. Sommige Typhoons van vorig jaar die richting Japan, China en Taiwan trokken waren echte monsters en je hoorde er nauwelijks iets over.

Nog een kleine 30 dagen en dan begint 'officieel' het Atlantische seizoen

Hier trouwens nog twee foto's van Myanmar, waar Typhoon Mala toesloeg en zware overstromingen veroorzaakte. (Iets wat dus ook nauwelijks in het nieuws kwam)

dan lijkt Florida aardig gespaard te worden...