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Britain ‘must prepare for war with Russia in next five years’
General Sir Patrick Sanders urges Government to build bomb shelters as Moscow’s threat to the UK grows
Britain must prepare for war with Russia within five years by building bunkers and investing in air defences, the former Army head has warned.
Gen Sir Patrick Sanders, who stood down as Chief of the General Staff last summer, said the UK needed to accept that war with Putin by 2030 was a “realistic possibility”.
In his most stark comments yet on the threat Britain faces from Moscow, Sir Patrick said he did not know how many more “signals” the British Government needed for it to realise that it must act to increase the nation’s resilience.
“If Russia stops fighting in Ukraine, you get to a position where within a matter of months they will have the capability to conduct a limited attack on a Nato member that we will be responsible for supporting, and that happens by 2030,” Gen Sir Patrick said in an interview with The Telegraph.
Gen Sir Patrick said as the former head of the British Army, there had been unsuccessful “conversations” with the Government about building bomb shelters for civilians and underground command centres for the military in preparation for an attack.
“It always came down to a conversation of it being too costly and not a high enough priority and the threat didn’t feel sufficiently imminent or serious to make it worth it,” he said.
He cited Finland as an example the UK should consider.
“Finland has bomb shelters for 4.5 million people. It can survive as a government and as a society under direct missile and air attacks from Russia. We don’t have that.”
Gen Sir Patrick continued: “I don’t know what more signals we need for us to realise that if we don’t act now and we don’t act in the next five years to increase our resilience … I don’t know what more is needed.
“Take the countries that are very alive to the threat – Estonia, Poland, the Nordics – governments there take a really proactive, serious approach to making sure the population realise that they could be attacked at almost any time.
“And so they give them a set of instructions on how to prepare for the consequences of that – loss of power, loss of fuel, storing food, they encourage them to have their own defensive bunkers, whether that’s in cellars or civil defence – they encourage people to volunteer for civil defence roles to protect key bits of infrastructure.”
The former army chief warned that funding for the UK’s air defences is “much lower” than it should be and urged the Government to direct more money into them.
An increase in funding would also involve ensuring backup systems are in place so that, in the event the UK’s Critical National Infrastructure – such as gas storage, power generation and data centres – is destroyed by an adversary, the country can still function.
Gen Sir Patrick said he did not believe an Iron Dome air defence system, which protects populated areas of Israel from missile attacks, was required in the UK. However, he added that “similar protection” that could detect threats and protect civilians from “the enemy’s drones” should be part of the military’s “next big evolution”.
Britain must prepare for war with Russia within five years by building bunkers and investing in air defences, the former Army head has warned.
Gen Sir Patrick Sanders, who stood down as Chief of the General Staff last summer, said the UK needed to accept that war with Putin by 2030 was a “realistic possibility”.
In his most stark comments yet on the threat Britain faces from Moscow, Sir Patrick said he did not know how many more “signals” the British Government needed for it to realise that it must act to increase the nation’s resilience.
“If Russia stops fighting in Ukraine, you get to a position where within a matter of months they will have the capability to conduct a limited attack on a Nato member that we will be responsible for supporting, and that happens by 2030,” Gen Sir Patrick said in an interview with The Telegraph.
Gen Sir Patrick said as the former head of the British Army, there had been unsuccessful “conversations” with the Government about building bomb shelters for civilians and underground command centres for the military in preparation for an attack.
“It always came down to a conversation of it being too costly and not a high enough priority and the threat didn’t feel sufficiently imminent or serious to make it worth it,” he said.
He cited Finland as an example the UK should consider.
“Finland has bomb shelters for 4.5 million people. It can survive as a government and as a society under direct missile and air attacks from Russia. We don’t have that.”
Gen Sir Patrick continued: “I don’t know what more signals we need for us to realise that if we don’t act now and we don’t act in the next five years to increase our resilience … I don’t know what more is needed.
“Take the countries that are very alive to the threat – Estonia, Poland, the Nordics – governments there take a really proactive, serious approach to making sure the population realise that they could be attacked at almost any time.
“And so they give them a set of instructions on how to prepare for the consequences of that – loss of power, loss of fuel, storing food, they encourage them to have their own defensive bunkers, whether that’s in cellars or civil defence – they encourage people to volunteer for civil defence roles to protect key bits of infrastructure.”
The former army chief warned that funding for the UK’s air defences is “much lower” than it should be and urged the Government to direct more money into them.
An increase in funding would also involve ensuring backup systems are in place so that, in the event the UK’s Critical National Infrastructure – such as gas storage, power generation and data centres – is destroyed by an adversary, the country can still function.
Gen Sir Patrick said he did not believe an Iron Dome air defence system, which protects populated areas of Israel from missile attacks, was required in the UK. However, he added that “similar protection” that could detect threats and protect civilians from “the enemy’s drones” should be part of the military’s “next big evolution”.
Speaking to The Telegraph from his garden in Wiltshire while smoking an Epicure No 2 with his blonde labrador Fargo by his side, Gen Sir Patrick, who is 59 years old, cut a more relaxed figure than he did as the general who commanded the nation’s army from 2022 until last June.
The former rifleman, who fell out of favour with the Government for being deemed too outspoken on troop cuts, is adamant that reducing the size of the Army is wrong.
Under the previous government, it was announced that the Army would be reduced from just over 80,000 personnel as of October 2020 to 72,500 by 2025, cutting troop numbers to their lowest levels since Napoleonic times.
The Telegraph previously revealed that while still serving, Gen Sir Patrick, who had been tipped to be the next Chief of the Defence Staff, was blocked from giving a speech where he would warn that the nation would be called up to fight in the event of a war with Russia, because the Army is too small.
It led to Rishi Sunak, the then-prime minister, being forced to deny that conscription was on the cards. The return of National Service would later become one of the former Conservative leader’s flagship policies during the last general election.
“At the moment, the British Army is too small to survive more than the first few months of an intensive engagement, and we’re going to need more,” Gen Sir Patrick told the Telegraph this week.
“Now the first place you go to are the reserves, but the reserves are also too small. Thirty thousand reserves still only takes you to an army of 100,000. You know, I joined an Army in the Cold War that was about 140,000 regulars, and on top of that, a much larger reserve.”
He said he was disappointed the recently published Strategic Defence Review “didn’t touch on this at all”.
He added that as the Cold War ended, the West was lured into a false sense of security and that the “peace dividend” had made Britain vulnerable.
“We now need to wake up and realise that that world has gone,” he said.
“The world has become as dangerous, if not more dangerous, than it was in the Cold War and so I always worry about the layers of security we have, but I worry more about our resilience, our ability to recover from things, from strikes, to protect our civilian population, to make sure the civilian population understands that these are no longer things that happen elsewhere, they could happen in the UK.”
Last month, Rachel Reeves committed that the defence budget would rise to 2.6 per cent of the UK’s GDP by April 2027.
Sir Keir Starmer then travelled to the Hague, where he agreed that the UK would spend 5 per cent of GDP on national security within 10 years. Of this amount, 3.5 per cent will be on core defence matters, although an exact timeline to achieve this has not been set out.
By including things like broadband and Critical National Infrastructure within the 5 per cent, Gen Sir Patrick conceded the Government had been “imaginative” in its interpretation of what counts as defending the UK.
“You can make an argument that rural broadband is a critical part of national resilience, because if you can’t communicate with people, then you can’t keep them safe. You can equally make an argument that, for example, paying for the fire service out of that budget is also part of civil defence,” he said.
“I don’t have particular problems with any of these individual issues, but if all we’re doing is repackaging money that we spend already, then we’re not increasing our national resilience and that would be irresponsible.
“My concern is not that we will get to 5 per cent and the 3.5 per cent of military, it’s by when and at the moment the increase in the defence budget between now and 2027 is pretty marginal.”
The Prime Minister’s pledge at the start of the year to put boots on the ground in Ukraine as part of his Coalition of the Willing to oversee a ceasefire is something Gen Sir Patrick supports, although he believes it should be happening now.
“We’ve been at the leading edge of this, but we can’t take our eye off it and we probably need to do more,” he said.
“Incidentally, I think the Coalition of the Willing is something that gets deployed after there has been some framework or ceasefire. Well, I’d say we should be there now, training. We should be in western Ukraine, helping the Ukrainians with their training and their equipment.”
Gen Sir Patrick, who, since retiring from the military, co-hosts The General & the Journalist podcast and is chairman of the advisory company Herminius Strategic Intelligence, said the UK also needed to be conscious of events in the Middle East, particularly in light of America’s recent bombing of Iran.
“The Middle East matters,” he said. “Not just for reasons of energy supplies but because an unstable Middle East leads to instability in Europe, it leads to mass migration, has economic consequences, leads to inflation, contributes to the cost-of-living crisis.”
He said that Iran’s position as a “malign player in the region” meant it would operate through proxies “to attack British interests in the UK”.
Such assaults range from cyber crimes to outright acts of sabotage and assassinations, as well as providing financial backing for protest groups.
Gen Sir Patrick speculated that this could include the activist group Palestine Action, who recently broke into RAF Brize Norton and caused millions of pounds of damage to two air-to-air refuelling jets. They have now been proscribed as a terrorist organisation by the Government.
“Knowing what I know about the way the Iranians act it’s entirely possible that there will have been some direct or covert sponsorship of groups like that,” he said. “I don’t rule it out.”
However, in Gen Sir Patrick’s opinion, it is Russia which remains the biggest threat to the UK’s security.
When asked by The Telegraph which country was next on Putin’s hit list, he said: “I think we are close to being public enemy number one, because it was the UK that really galvanised the international community’s response in the early days of the Ukraine war.”
He added: “I’m really proud that actually our political leaders and the government drew a line and said, ‘no, this is unacceptable’.
“There’s a long history of mistrust and animosity between the UK and Russia.
“We’re not the most powerful opponent that they would say they face, but because we are good at setting an example, because we’re good at galvanising international opinion, because we are good at diplomacy, we’re good at convening, then we punch well above our weight on issues like this and it’s right that we do.”
While he does not believe that Europe will face a “huge broad front advance where the Russians are heading for Berlin”, he does believe Moscow will look to regain elements of the Soviet Empire, much of which is now within Nato.
An incursion by Moscow would therefore result in the triggering of Article 5 – which states that an attack on one member of the alliance is considered an attack on all.
Areas that are vulnerable to Russian attacks start in the high north, such as the Norwegian island of Svalbard, which is a strategically important location and would guarantee Russia access to the North Atlantic.
Further south, Gen Sir Patrick said, the next obvious targets are the three Baltic states, including the heavily Russian-speaking town of Narva in Estonia. As there is a British battle group in Estonia, “British troops would be involved from day one” if such an incursion were to happen.
He also warned of the vulnerabilities surrounding certain Danish and Swedish islands, as well as the Suwałki Gap – a 60-mile-wide strip of land between Belarus and the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad.
“If they took that, they would be able to have a link up from Kaliningrad into Belarus, which is pro-Russian, and it would completely isolate and cut all of the land borders from the three Baltic states.”
Gen Sir Patrick paints a grim picture – but it is one which he hopes will make the British Government “wake up”.
The son of a soldier who dedicated his life to King and country, he still feels a sense of duty to warn of dangers he sees over the horizon, even as his life has pivoted from military service to stints of solo travel on his motorbike, including to his beloved Norway, where he was raised.
After coffee in the garden of what is his 18th home with Fiona, his wife – such is the trade-off of a life in the military – Gen Sir Patrick set about packing his belongings for a journey to Ukraine.
He travelled there many times in his old position as Army Chief and, so long as Putin remains, he has unfinished business.