Zonnevlammen, Zonnestormen en CME #6:

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Op woensdag 9 oktober 2024 07:15 schreef Houtenbeen het volgende:
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Op woensdag 9 oktober 2024 18:21 schreef Houtenbeen het volgende:

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Hopelijk is het helder morgenavond

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Op donderdag 10 oktober 2024 18:08 schreef Houtenbeen het volgende:

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Zo gauw het donker is al, mits helder

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Category G2 – Moderate geomagnetic storm predicted for November 29

A coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with filament eruption near Region 3901 at around 20:24 UTC on November 25, 2024, is forecast to reach Earth late November 28 (UTC).

CME associated with a filament eruption near Region 3901 on November 25, 2024, is forecast to reach Earth late November 28 (UTC).

As a result, the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) is forecasting a G1 – Minor geomagnetic storm for November 28 and a G2 – Moderate for November 29.

G2 – Moderate geomagnetic storms can produce a range of effects primarily affecting areas poleward of 55 degrees geomagnetic latitude.

Storms of this intensity may cause power grid fluctuations and voltage alarms in high-latitude power systems. Satellites could also experience irregularities in their orientation, along with increased atmospheric drag on those in low Earth orbit. Additionally, high-frequency (HF) radio communications may experience fading at higher latitudes, potentially disrupting communication.

Aurora displays may extend as far south as regions like New York, Wisconsin, and Washington state.

Solar wind parameters over the past 24 hours continued to reflect weak, negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) influence. The total field was between 6 – 9 nT with the Bz component oscillating between +/- 7 nT.

Solar wind speeds averaged around 415 km/s while the phi angle remained in the negative orientation through much of the period.

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'Cataclysmic' solar storm hit Earth around 2687 years ago, ancient tree rings reveal

If this colossal solar storm hit our technologically advanced world the effects would have been devastating.

Earth is no stranger to solar storms. Just this year we've been bombarded with storms, some so powerful they've triggered jaw-dropping auroras deep into mid-latitudes.

Modern technology ensures that very little goes unnoticed. A fleet of satellites constantly monitors space weather, while scientists analyze data and study its effects on Earth. Meanwhile, skywatchers turn their gaze and cameras skyward to capture the mesmerizing auroras ignited by geomagnetic storms. But what about solar storms that took place prior to the creation of modern technology? If a solar storm of unprecedented magnitude occurred thousands of years ago how would we know?

Lucky for us ancient trees act as time capsules, silently recording Earth's history. A research team from the University of Arizona led by Irina Panyushkina and Timothy Jull is unlocking these arboreal secrets by carefully analyzing tree rings to reveal evidence of colossal solar storms known as Miyake Events. These space weather events are so rare that only 6 have been detected in the past 14,500 years. The most recent of which occurred around 775-775 CE. But the exact timing of the ca. 660 BCE event had long eluded researchers, until now.

Miyake events represent an extreme type of solar activity first identified in 2012 by Japanese physicist Fusa Miyake.

"If they happened today, they would have cataclysmic effects on communication technology," Panyushkina said in a statement.

Miyake, a collaborator with Panyushkina's team, published research revealing the distinctive signature of these events: sharp increases in radioactive carbon isotopes, specifically carbon-14, found in tree growth rings, according to the statement.

Carbon-14 is a naturally occurring radioactive variant of carbon, it forms in the atmosphere when cosmic radiation interacts with nitrogen. Eventually, this carbon-14 reacts with oxygen to form carbon dioxide. The carbon dioxide then enters the trees via photosynthesis.

"After a few months, carbon-14 will have traveled from the stratosphere to the lower atmosphere, where it is taken up by trees and becomes part of the wood as they grow," Panyushkina said in the statement.

Panyushkina and her team at the University of Arizona carefully dissected individual tree rings from ancient wood samples collected from dead trees buried in riverbanks as well as timbers excavated during archaeological digs. The main component of the wood, the cellulose, is then burned to determine the radiocarbon content.

When a radiocarbon spike is detected, the researchers then compare the tree-ring data to spikes in different isotopes such as beryllium-10 which has been locked away in ice cores retrieved from glaciers and ice sheets, another great natural time capsule. Just like carbon-14, beryllium-10 forms in the atmosphere as a result of a bombardment of solar particles, precipitation such as rain or snow captures the isotope and locks it into an ice sheet.

"If ice cores from both the North Pole and South Pole show a spike in the isotope beryllium-10 for a particular year corresponding to increased radiocarbon in tree-rings, we know there was a solar storm," Panyushkina said in the statement.

Both tree ring and ice data pinpointed the date of an extreme Miyake solar storm whose timing had long eluded researchers to between 664 and 663 BCE.

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Exceptionally fast, Extremely Rare CME launched from farside of the Sun

A powerful coronal mass ejection (CME) with an estimated speed of 3 161 km/s erupted on the Sun’s farside around 16:00 UTC on Tuesday, December 17, 2024.

A fast-moving halo CME was first observed in LASCO imagery around 16:00 UTC on December 17 following a powerful eruption on the farside of the Sun. No radio emissions were detected, and Earth-facing imagery confirms that this event was a result of a farside eruption, not directed toward Earth.

The CME was classified as an ER-type (Extremely Rare) by CCMC DONKI (Community Coordinated Modeling Center’s Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information), with an estimated speed of approximately 3 161 km/s (1 964 miles/s).

This speed is notably higher than some of the fastest historically recorded CMEs, such as those associated with the 2003 “Halloween storms,” which were recorded at speeds below 3 000 km/s.

If it had been Earth-directed, we’d be looking at G5 – Extreme geomagnetic storming on December 18 and 19.

“This is truly an exceptionally rare kind of CME,” said Jure Atanackov, geologist and researcher associated with the Geological Survey of Slovenia (GeoZS) who reported extensively about this exceptional event. “Few recorded CMEs are as fast or faster than this one (~3 161 km/s). The 23 July 2012 far side event, known as the ‘Carrington event that missed us’ clocked in at ~3 300 km/s. The 2003 Halloween G5 storm CMEs were slower, <3 000 km/s.”

This is the fourth farside CME in the past 10 days, indicating the presence of a highly active sunspot currently hidden from view. This active region is likely located in the southern hemisphere near the central meridian. As the Sun rotates, Earth will face this active region next week.

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Solar activity ramps up with three X-class and over 20 M-class solar flares in 24 hours

Solar activity increased to high levels on December 29 and 30, 2024, producing more than 20 M- and 3 X-class solar flares in just over 24 hours. At least one of these events produced an Earth-directed coronal mass ejection (CME) — with impact expected on December 31. As a result, a G3 – Strong Geomagnetic Storm Watch is in effect.

A major solar flare measuring X1.5 erupted from Active Region (AR) 3936 at 04:14 UTC on December 30, 2024. The event started at 04:01 and ended at 04:28 UTC. The flare was associated with a 10cm Radio Burst (tenflare) from 04:08 to 04:15 UTC, with a peak flux of 1 000 sfu.

This event was followed by an impulsive X1.1 flare, which started at 04:29 and peaked at 04:31 UTC. This major event ended at 04:34 UTC and was produced by AR 3932. A tenflare lasting 2 minutes with a peak flux of 430 sfu was registered from 04:29 to 04:31 UTC.

A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can indicate significant radio noise associated with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

Radio frequencies were forecast to be most degraded over the Indian Ocean, SE Asia, and Australia at the time of flare events.

X1.1 solar flare on December 29
The two X-class flares today follow a major X1.1 flare from AR 3936 at 07:18 UTC on December 29 and a flurry of M-class flares that began with an M1.0 at 02:35 UTC on December 29.

Eight M-class flares were produced before the X1.1 and another 13 before the end of the UTC day, making a total of 21 M-class and 1 X-class solar flares during the day.

Two coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed after yesterday’s X1.1 solar flare event.

The first was seen in NASA coronagraph imagery around 08:48 UTC and appeared to be a sympathetic event that originated in the vicinity of AR 3933.

The second was seen in NASA coronagraph imagery around 09:12 UTC as a northwesterly front possibly driven by the aforementioned X1.1 event.

Modeling of both of these CMEs suggests that they will miss south and ahead of Earth, respectively, according to the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC).

Other notable flares from AR 3936 included an M4.2 flare at 07:59 UTC and an M7.2 at 15:09 UTC. Region 3939 produced numerous M-class flares as well.

Earth-directed CME
A filament eruption that was associated with an M2.0 flare at 04:30 UTC on December 29 from AR 3939 resulted in an asymmetric, partial-halo CME first seen in NASA coronagraph imagery at approximately 06:24 UTC.

“Analysis and modeling of this CME indicated an Earth-directed event with arrival at Earth by mid-UTC day on December 31,” SWPC forecasters said.

Additionally, AR 3939 produced an M3.3 flare at 17:08 UTC that appeared to have resulted in yet another partial-halo CME, although a more faint, first seen in NASA coronagraph imagery around 18:00 UTC. Analysis and modeling of this event is ongoing.

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Op vrijdag 28 maart 2025 17:58 schreef Houtenbeen het volgende:
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A G4 (Severe) geomagnetic storm watch is in effect for 2 June. A powerful coronal mass ejection (CME) erupted from the Sun the evening of 30 May. The CME is anticipated to arrive at Earth later on Sunday, 1 June. The CME arrival will likely lead to immediate geomagnetic disturbances with the potential for G3 (Strong) levels, and a chance for G4. Conditions will likely intensify as CME progression continues and G4 levels become more possible on Monday, 2 June. Geomagnetic storm levels will likely begin subsiding by Tuesday, 3 June, with G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) still possible. Confidence in an Earth-arrival component to this CME is good. However, timing and intensity are more uncertain. These watches represent potential based on our best analyses. We will not know the true nature of this CME’s geomagnetic storm potential until the CME arrives at our solar wind observatories located 1 million miles from Earth. Upon arrival at those spacecraft, we will know the magnetic strength and orientation that are very important to what levels and duration of geomagnetic storm conditions are expected to occur. As always visit our website for the latest information and updates.
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov(...)ffect-2-june-utc-day

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Op zondag 1 juni 2025 07:35 schreef Houtenbeen het volgende:
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