Oorlog in Oekraïne #929 onzeker richting de lente.

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Protests by relatives of mobilised soldiers growing in Russia – ISW
Relatives of mobilised Russian soldiers continue to protest across Russia, with rallies taking place in the cities of Moscow, St Petersburg, Vladivostok and Yekaterinburg.

Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

Details: The ISW reported that the protests are continuing despite the Kremlin's attempts to censor them and suppress any social movement in support of the mobilised Russian soldiers.

On 10 February, Russian opposition media outlets Sota and Mobilization News released footage showing members of the Russian civic movement the Way Home laying flowers and gathering at monuments in Moscow, St Petersburg, Vladivostok and Yekaterinburg, calling for their relatives to be demobilised.

Mobilization News reported that members of the Way Home also visited the campaign headquarters of Russian presidential candidate Vladislav Davankov in Moscow and handed over letters asking for demobilisation to Davankov's team.

The Russian authorities have recently attempted to censor protests by Way Home members at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier in Moscow and nearby Manezhnaya Square.

ISW stressed its assessment that the Kremlin's attempts to censor and discredit the Way Home movement underscore the Kremlin's desperation to shut down these protests, especially in the run-up to the March 2024 presidential elections.

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 10 February:
• Delays in Western security assistance may lead to significant Ukrainian air defence missile shortages that could allow Russian forces to bomb Ukrainian forces or even front-line cities more aggressively.
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy appointed Major General Anatolii Barhylevych as Chief of the Ukrainian General Staff, replacing Lieutenant General Serhii Shaptala.
• Russian drone footage published on 9 February showed Russian forces executing Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) near Klishchiivka on the Bakhmut front.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov reiterated several Kremlin narratives aimed at justifying Russia’s war in Ukraine and threatening the West at a ceremony honouring Diplomats’ Day on 10 February.
• Kremlin mouthpieces reiterated ongoing Russian narratives blaming the West, specifically the United States, for the absence of constructive peace negotiations to end Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, despite numerous Russian statements indicating that Russia is not interested in good-faith peace negotiations with Ukraine.
• The Russian State Duma is considering a bill aimed at further censoring actors designated as "foreign agents", likely aimed at censoring dissent from opposition media outlets and prominent information space voices.
• Russian forces made confirmed advances near Kreminna and Avdiivka.
• The relatives of mobilised Russian soldiers continue to protest throughout Russia despite previous Kremlin efforts to censor similar protests and suppress any possible resurgence of a broader social movement in support of mobilised Russian soldiers.
• Russian and occupation officials continue to set conditions for the deportation of Ukrainian children from occupied Ukraine through educational and extracurricular schemes.

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War in Ukraine contributing to shortage of doctors across Russia - UK intelligence
There are indications that Russia has faced a shortage of medical professionals across the country due to the aggressive war that the Kremlin has launched against Ukraine.
The UK Defense Ministry said this in an intelligence update posted on the social media platform X, Ukrinform reports.

According to the ministry, shortly after mobilization of the Russian military in September 2022, healthcare professionals were warned not leave the country; but up to 2% of Russian doctors and healthcare professionals did leave the country to avoid the draft. Additionally, up to 3,000 medical staff have likely been mobilized to assist in combat medical care.

The ministry cites data from the Russian Ministry of Health, which said in November 2023 that the medical sector lacked about 26,500 doctors and 58,200 nursing staff. There is a significant shortage of doctors in 22 regions, and in another seven regions it is assessed as severe.

Another estimate from January 2024 suggests that in the previous 15 months, the number of doctors decreased by 7,500 – with many blaming long hours and low pay. In its report on the budget for 2024, the State Duma Committee on Regional Policy and Local Government noted that poorer regions of Russia in particular would have problems financing medical salaries.

“The heavy resource and financial burden of supporting Russia's war in Ukraine is negatively affecting a range of civilian sectors that serve the Russian population. There are no signs that the trend of reducing numbers of healthcare professionals in Russia will change during 2024,” the intelligence said.

As reported by Ukrinform, the healthcare sector in the temporarily occupied territory of Zaporizhzhia region is experiencing a collapse. The enemy closed 70% of medical institutions, turning them into military hospitals.

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Russians Construct 30-Kilometer Defensive Line with 2,000 Railway Cars

The Russians built a 30-kilometer line of defense from more than 2,000 railway cars.
This was reported by the DeepState analytical community.

The continuous construction stretches along the branch line from the railway station in Olenivka to Volnovakha and has about 2,100 wagons of various types.

It is reported that the construction of this massive defensive line began in July 2023. For its construction, apparently, rolling stock was used, stolen from the temporarily occupied territories.

Such a defensive structure, which in fact represents a solid wall, is a very serious obstacle in the way of advancing troops.

Given that some sections of the railway track are built with a high roadbed (an embankment that distributes the load on the soil), such a defensive line is a full-fledged defensive shaft.

It is possible to overcome it only after large-scale engineering works: disengagement of wagons, removal from tracks, or movement to another place. However, these engineering works will be accompanied by the counteraction of the Russians.

In addition to problems for Ukrainian troops, such a line of defense also creates problems for the Russians themselves: logistics for advanced positions can be difficult due to an obstacle, in addition, such a barrier creates an obstacle to maneuver.

“This is a very specific engineering structure, the effectiveness of which is difficult to assess. The idea is clear – an obstacle to the advancement of the Defense Forces. It can be considered as a separate line of defense, because it is extremely difficult to damage, move or blow up the 30-kilometer mass of metal, and the movement of equipment through such a blockage without breaking through the corridor is impossible,” writes the DeepState team.

This is not the first time the Russians have built huge engineering barriers as part of a full-scale Russian-Ukrainian war.

In April 2023, it became known that the Russians built a solid 70-kilometer anti-tank ditch in Zaporizhzhia, which stretched from the village of Semenivka to the village of Marynivka.

Militarnyi has reported several times on the construction of fortifications in the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine.

For example, in August 2023, a significant strengthening of defense was reported near major settlements in Zaporizhzhia region.

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Russians Show T-62M and T-62MV Tanks Upgrades: Self-Entrenching Blades, Tank Sweeps and EW

The Russians showed T-62M and T-62MV mod. 2022 tanks, which are equipped with protective ‘grilles,’ self-entrenching blades, tank sweeps, and electronic warfare systems.

The video with these tanks was published by Andrii Tarasenko, a researcher of armored vehicles, on his Telegram channel.

Obviously, despite the statements of the Russians about the use of T-62 as ersatz-self-propelled guns, these combat vehicles are equipped for offensive operations.

An RP-377 electronic jamming system, which directly indicates that the tank does not act in the rear, is installed on one of the combat vehicles.

Later, Tarasenko released photos of a destroyed Russian armor convoy, among which one of the previously demonstrated T-62 was noticed.

It is worth noting that obsolete Soviet tanks from the Cold War era are often observed during attempts by Russian troops to advance.

Recently, Militarnyi reported that soldiers of the 3rd Brigade ‘Spartan’ of the National Guard destroyed the Russian T-55 tank, which was equipped with ‘grills’ on the turret and engine compartment.

The Russians began to use T-62 virtually from the beginning of the full-scale Russian-Ukrainian war, this was reported in May 2022.

Later, in June of the same year, Russian T-62 began to equip slat armor and “grills” against drones, which already signaled the use of tanks for their intended purpose, and not as ersatz-self-propelled guns.

Modernization of T-62
Currently, Russia plans to modernize approximately 800 outdated Soviet T-62M/MV tanks.

Modernization is carried out by installing a new radio, thermal sight, ERA and other protection

The very idea of modernizing the T-62 is generally justified: firstly, other tanks simply do not exist in the right quantities, and the Ukrainian military destroyed about 2,000 Russian vehicles.

Secondly, the level of training does not allow crews to quickly master more modern vehicles for the battlefield. The factory demonstrated a T-62MV on which a thermal sight with a 1PN-96MT-02 built-in laser rangefinder is installed.

Unlike Sosna-U, it does not have a daytime channel – exclusively thermal, but with a laser rangefinder.

It is based on a non-cooling matrix that affects target detection ranges (about two to three kilometers). Also, 1PN96MT-02 does not have the ability to use guided tank missiles.

To protect the tank, ‘grilles’ are welded onto the rear of the turret, and the dynamic protection ‘Kontakt-1’ is installed. However, there remains a vulnerability at the factory in the form of instruments on the turret that are not covered by the dynamic protection.

Штурмові Т-62М та Т-62МВ

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After a huge shake-up in the top brass of Ukraine’s armed forces, Zelensky met with his new team of military leaders. On Sunday he replaced the commander of the Joint Forces.

President Volodymyr Zelensky spent all day Saturday in meetings with his new team of military leadership.

“We continue to reboot the management team in the Armed Forces,” he wrote on his official Telegram channel.

On Sunday, Zelensky signed a decree appointing Gen. Yuriy Sodol as the Commander of the Joint Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to replace Gen. Serhiy Naiev. Since 2018, Sodol was the commander of Ukraine's Marines.

Among the officers Zelensky gathered were people the President described as “well known in the army and whothemselves know well what the army needs.” He added that they “are taking on new responsibilities.”

Apart from the new Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrsky, whose reputation as a hard-edged and cunning tactician is well known in Ukraine, there are several relatively new faces:

Colonel Vadym Sukharevsky’s focus will be on uncrewed systems and the development of drones.

Colonel Andriy Lebedenko will focus on innovation, specifically the technology component of the army and combat systems. “Clear practice with new technologies is needed,” Zelensky said.

Brigadier General Volodymyr Horbatiuk will concentrate on operational work, staff work, planning and management. “In every staff, they must fully understand the front,” Zelensky said, repeating a leitmotiv from the previous day when he announced that he insists his new commanders be familiar with the front rather than languishing at headquarters.

Brigadier General Oleksiy Shevchenko has been tasked to develop logistics, “ensuring maximum quality of logistics in our army.”

Meanwhile Brigadier General Mykhailo Drapaty will be responsible for training soldiers. Drapaty has commanded Joint Forces Kherson since the start of the full-scale war. His first job was constructing ad hoc defensive lines in the early days of Russia’s 2022 attack on Ukraine, following a Kremlin breakthrough from Crimea reaching initially weak Ukrainian forces around the cities Kherson and Mykolaiv.

“All the real-life experience of combat commanders, combat brigades, our units, who have built a quality training system for soldiers and evaluation and analysis of combat actions – all this experience must be implemented for the success of the Armed Forces of Ukraine,” Zelensky said.

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Ukraine's new Territorial Defence Commander oversaw dispersal of Revolution of Dignity protests as head of Internal Troops
Ihor Plakhuta, who was recently appointed to the post of the commander of the Territorial Defence Forces by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, was the head of Internal Troops during the 2013-14 Revolution of Dignity, and was therefore involved in the violent dispersal of protesters.

Source: Ukrainska Pravda

Details: Forces overseen by Plakhuta were involved in removing, on 10 December 2013, protesters’ barricades from the so-called "government quarter" – the area in Kyiv where many of Ukraine’s government buildings are located.

Plakhuta, who was then the commander of the Southern Territorial Command of the Ministry of Internal Affairs’ Internal Troops, said that around 400 Internal Troops personnel and members of the Berkut special police force were involved in removing the barricades from the streets.

He said that "people in black who disassembled the barricades were municipal workers".

Around the same time, Plakhuta claimed that two Berkut officers sustained injuries while carrying out their duties.

Media reported that an "official from the Internal Affairs Ministry" came out to negotiate with the protesters on 21 January 2014, with some suggesting that it was Plakhuta.

For reference: Ihor Plakhuta served as the commander of the Separate Presidential Brigade in 2005-2008.

In 2009, he was appointed the commander of the training centre No 169. He was later made the commander of the Southern Territorial Command of the Ministry of Internal Affairs’ Internal Troops.

Background:
• President Zelenskyy’s decree from 11 February saw the appointment of Ihor Plakhuta as commander of Ukraine’s Territorial Defence Forces, replacing Anatolii Barhylevych, who was relieved from his duties on Friday, 9 February.

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Op maandag 12 februari 2024 01:18 schreef sturmpie het volgende:

[..]
nee dat kan niet
als je lid bent van navo ga je automatisch akkoord met artikel 5.

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Russian soldiers more often express dissatisfaction with their commanders
Among the ranks of Russian military personnel, dissatisfaction with their commanders is growing. Courts are increasingly handing down verdicts for the shooting of their subordinates by commanders, according to the National Resistance Center (NRC).

It is noted that in the Western Military District of the Russian Armed Forces, there is a trend of acts of violence committed by unit commanders against their subordinates.

In particular, in the Kursk region, numerous verdicts of garrison military courts are recorded regarding cases of mass murder of servicemen, when unit commanders shot their subordinates during service.

It is pointed out that these incidents occurred due to mutual animosity or as a result of servicemen being in a state of alcohol or drug intoxication.

"As a result of the latest incident in early February of this year, the Kursk Garrison Military Court handed down a verdict sentencing a senior warrant officer to 14 years in prison for shooting his subordinates while heavily intoxicated," the statement said.

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Finland's new president sees no limit to NATO ties, Ukraine support

HELSINKI, Feb 11 (Reuters) - Alexander Stubb declared himself winner of Finland's presidential election on Sunday after a campaign built on promises to make the most of his country's new membership of NATO and back Ukraine in its war with shared neighbour Russia.
In his new job, the centre-right former prime minister and investment banker will head up foreign and security policy, represent Finland in NATO meetings and act as Commander-in-Chief of the military.
It is "very important that we in Europe take care of our own defence," the 55-year-old told Reuters in the buildup to the vote. He said he agreed with his predecessor Sauli Niinisto "who said that we need a more European NATO".
The new job marks Stubb's return to domestic politics after several years abroad working as vice president of the European Investment Bank and director at the European University Institute in Florence.
Allies describe him as a multi-lingual, pro-European, fiscal conservative. He describes himself as a moderate.
He would be "a Western president in many ways" and lean towards the United States, Britain and Nordic neighbours when it came to setting the tone of foreign policy, he told Reuters.
He would set "no limits" to Finland's support for Ukraine.
"My starting point is, paraphrasing (European Central Bank President) Mario Draghi, whatever it takes," Stubb said.
The Nordic nation joined the Western military alliance in April last year, breaking with decades of non-alignment in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
During his election campaign Stubb said Finland should be an active NATO member and seek to have some NATO troops stationed on its territory.
He has also said he would be ready to let nuclear weapons be transported through the country - though not stored there. "At times, a nuclear weapon is a guarantee of peace," he said at a debate.
Many Finns also see cosmopolitan Stubb as a candidate of the Helsinki elite, according to University of Helsinki political scientist Johanna Vuorelma. "The visible and well-known names of the business world are strongly behind Stubb," Vuorelma said.
But that was an image he tried to shift during his campaign, by speaking favourably of Finland's social-democratic welfare model, she added.
As far back as the 1990s, it was clear that foreign policy was one of his strengths, even though over the years there were questions "over what the level of his domestic political expertise and interest in it was," the head of Finland's Centre for Parliamentary Studies, Markku Jokisipila, said.
Stubb served as a Member of the European Parliament from 2004 to 2008 before moving home to kick off a political career capped by a string of ministerial posts - foreign affairs, European affairs and trade, finance and then prime minister in 2014-2015. He was ousted in 2016 as chair of the National Coalition Party that he still represents.
Stubb is a keen amateur athlete and triathlon champion - though he has said he will cut down on sport once he becomes Finland's 13th president.
He is married to British-born lawyer Suzanne Innes-Stubb, 54, with whom he has two grown-up children.

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Translation: "This is a well-known mine, the MON-50. I'll show you now how it's disassembled".

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Russia Lost 10 Percent Of Its Deployed Tanks Trying To Capture Avdiivka
Pyrrhic victory: noun; a victory that is not worth winning because so much is lost to achieve it

The four-month battle for Avdiivka probably is culminating as the Ukrainian garrison in the ruined city, just five miles northwest of Russian-occupied Donetsk in eastern Ukraine, runs out of ammunition—a direct consequence of Russia-aligned Republicans in the U.S. Congress withholding aid—and Russian infantry creep into the city from north and south, threatening the garrison’s supply lines.

It’s a painful loss for Ukraine—the first large settlement it’s lost to Russia in nearly a year—but, as a win, it’s potentially even more painful for Russia. In capturing a few square miles of demolished and depopulated urban terrain, the Kremlin has sacrificed almost exactly an entire mechanized division’s worth of tanks.

As open-source analyst @partisan_oleg pointed out, before the fall of the Soviet Union a 10,000-person motor-rifle division on paper would have 220 tanks. The Russian army still broadly adheres to Soviet force-design.

Since attacking Avdiivka in early October, the Russian 2nd and 41st Combined Arms Armies have lost 214 tanks that analyst @naalsio26 has counted. Mostly T-72s and T-80s, but also a few high-end T-90s. The Ukrainian brigades in and around Avdiivka meanwhile have lost just 18 tanks.

Russian tanks losses just around Avdiivka amount to potentially more than a tenth of all the tanks Russian forces have in Ukraine.

The Russians can’t blame the 12-to-one loss ratio on the Ukrainians not deploying tanks in their defensive campaign in Avdiivka: the Ukrainians did deploy tanks, including some of their best German-made Leopard 2A6s—before chopping those tanks to a brigade holding the line around Kreminna, 50 miles to the north.

Nor can the Russians point to the traditional advantage a dug-in defender has over an exposed attacker. Historically, an attacker should expect to suffer three times the losses a defender suffers.

No, the Ukrainians simply outfought the Russians with mines, artillery, drones, missiles and old-fashioned rifle fire from entrenched positions. And they did it despite gradually running out of ammunition after Republicans withheld U.S. aid to Ukraine starting in October.

In losing four times as many tanks as they should expect to lose, the Russians fell into an attrition trap. They might capture what’s left of Avdiivka, but if the Ukrainian garrison withdraws now, the Russians will win the ruins at a cost in people and equipment they probably can’t make good very quickly—and likely not without slowing the pace of operations elsewhere along the 600-mile front of Russia’s 23-month wider war on Ukraine.

The problem, of course, is that the Ukrainian garrison in Avdiivka might not retreat. If, at the orders of Ukraine’s eastern command or new commander-in-chief Gen. Oleksandr Syrsky, the garrison fights to the last person, it risks surrendering its attritional advantage.

This has happened before. The last time the Russians surrounded a large Ukrainian settlement—Bakhmut, last May—Syrsky, then the head of Ukrainian ground forces, probably kept Bakhmut’s garrison in the eastern city’s ruins too long.

“While Bakhmut initially unfolded as a success story for Ukraine, with Russians sustaining significant casualties, at times reaching a ratio of 1:7 or 1:10, the situation swiftly changed,” Ukrainian analysis group Frontelligence Insight explained. “Once Russian forces managed to seize Ukrainian flanks and disrupt supply routes, the casualty rates almost equaled.”

It’s not too late for the Avdiivka battle to hurt Russia far more than it hurts Ukraine, even as Russia “wins” the fight. But, for the Ukrainians, snatching victory from defeat means knowing when to retreat.

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Russia Damaged a HIMARS Launcher! Shrapnel Damage on HIMARS Loaded on a Plane

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Op maandag 12 februari 2024 13:23 schreef oheng het volgende:
De russen hebben bijna de belangrijkste aanvoerlijn naar Avdiivka afgesloten.

Andrew Perpetua's observaties. Google Docs bron.

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De russen hebben ook eindelijk een (1) HIMARS beschadigd:

Russia Damaged a HIMARS Launcher! Shrapnel Damage on HIMARS Loaded on a Plane

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Op maandag 12 februari 2024 15:14 schreef Delenlill het volgende:

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Zou die tweede in plaats van door een ongeluk bijvoorbeeld door een anti persoonsmijn geraakt kunnen zijn? Of is daar de schade niet groot genoeg voor.