Oorlog in Oekraïne #924

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Op dinsdag 30 januari 2024 17:22 schreef Papierversnipperaar het volgende:

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Op dinsdag 30 januari 2024 17:23 schreef Discombobulate het volgende:

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Oeh, ja want sancties werken zo ontzettend goed.

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Op dinsdag 30 januari 2024 17:25 schreef Papierversnipperaar het volgende:

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Vraag dat maar aan Putin die nu wil onderhandelen en aan Orban die nu zijn keutel terug trekt.

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Op dinsdag 30 januari 2024 17:26 schreef Discombobulate het volgende:

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Rusland werkt aardig goed om die sancties heen. Het is al lang en breed bekend dat die dingen maar matig effectief zijn.

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Op dinsdag 30 januari 2024 14:50 schreef Joppiez het volgende:

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Ik ken meerdere Oekrainers die al teruggekeerd zijn.

Grappig dat hier nog steeds zo erg het beeld heerst alsof Nederland helemaal geweldig is.
Het is hier als Oekraiense vluchteling geen leuk leven hebben in het algemeen.
Gezondheidszorg is erg beperkt toegankelijk. Ze zitten ergens in een opvanglocatie of in een huis met veel andere mensen. Geen privacy. Als je al werk hebt dan krijg je minimumloon of eronder, ergens in een fabriek ofzo.

Het salaris(je) wat je krijgt gaat er direct ook weer uit, ofwel je houdt niks over. Dus voor het geld hoeft men hier ook niet naar toe.
Leuk leven, echt top man.

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Op dinsdag 30 januari 2024 00:47 schreef BlaZ het volgende:

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Een claim is geen recht, het is het aanspraak maken op, kortom Hongarije kan prima een claim hebben op een stuk land van Oekraïne, maar het kunnen uitoefenen van die claim in een vredesovereenkomst waarin die claim gehonoreerd wordt is natuurlijk heel wat anders.

Het gaat niet om een verkeerde of een goede kant; elke land kiest in een conflict simpelweg de positie die het best uitkomt en de meeste voordelen oplevert.

Je beschrijving van Hongarije als een staat die niet betrokken is en van twee walletjes eet past eerder bij een neutrale staat.

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Op dinsdag 30 januari 2024 17:23 schreef Discombobulate het volgende:

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Oeh, ja want sancties werken zo ontzettend goed.

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Op dinsdag 30 januari 2024 17:26 schreef Discombobulate het volgende:

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Rusland werkt aardig goed om die sancties heen. Het is al lang en breed bekend dat die dingen maar matig effectief zijn.

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Russian Anti-War Rock Band Bi-2 Faces Deportation in Thailand
The anti-war Russian-Belarusian rock band Bi-2 said Tuesday that its members face deportation from Thailand after they performed a concert on the resort island of Phuket last week.

Seven members of Bi-2, some of whom are dual citizens of Israel and Australia, were detained by Thai immigration authorities on Wednesday following the Phuket concert.

Bi-2 said its members were being held in Bangkok after the event's organizers allegedly failed to properly fill out paperwork.

On Friday, a Phuket court fined the band members $84 each and ordered their deportation.

Bi-2 said their deportation from the Southeast Asian country was still being worked out, denying reports from Israeli media that four band members would be sent to Israel instead of Russia.

The band said they had been due to be deported to Israel before “high-ranking diplomats from the Russian Embassy” intervened and the Thai authorities “canceled” that decision on Tuesday.

Initially, the musicians said the Israeli Foreign Ministry and diplomats in Thailand were involved in “resolving the situation.”

Bi-2 has been performing outside Russia since the country invaded Ukraine nearly two years ago.

It refused to appear on stage in front of the pro-war symbol “Z” at a concert in April 2022, after which venues across Russia began canceling their performances.

Russia’s Justice Ministry in May designated Bi-2's lead singer Yegor Bortnik (who performs under the stage name Lyova Bi-2) a “foreign agent.”

Officials in Moscow have begun threatening Bi-2 with criminal persecution following news of the band members’ detention in Thailand.

Federal lawmaker Andrei Lugovoy said Tuesday that the “scumbag” Bi-2 members “will soon be tap-dancing in front of their cellmates” in Russia.

Russia’s Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova accused the musicians of “sponsoring terrorism.”

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Russia creates new mercenary army in Africa, replacing Wagner group, says Bloomberg
Russia, aiming to expand its influence in Africa, plans to create expeditionary forces consisting of 20,000 mercenaries, replacing the Wagner Private Military Company's fighters.

Source: Bloomberg

Quote: "The Africa Corps, which controversially shares the name of Adolf Hitler’s expeditionary force, aims to enlist new recruits and former Wagner fighters by mid-year to deploy to at least five Russia-friendly countries – Burkina Faso, Libya, Mali, the Central African Republic and Niger – according to the group. Wagner was technically disbanded following Prigozhin’s death but remains active."

Details: The publication asserts that the African corps will bolster Russia's military presence through a network of bases under the control of the Russian Ministry of Defence, as part of Moscow's efforts to revive its influence amid a rapid decline in Western influence.

"It would also allow the Kremlin to consolidate control of Wagner’s business network in Africa, including potentially lucrative mining interests, following the death last year of the group’s founder Yevgeny Prigozhin," the publication writes.

An unnamed source close to the Russian Ministry of Defence says that the plans involve recruiting 20,000 mercenaries, although it remains unclear where the military department will find such a large number of personnel.

Bloomberg notes that even at the peak of its activity in African operations, the Wagner Group had at most a few thousand individuals. Meanwhile, Russia is attempting to recruit at least another 250,000 for participation in the war in Ukraine this year.

Additionally, if Russia transitions to an 'official military role' in Africa, it may lose the ability to refute UN accusations of war crimes in Africa directed at the Wagner Group.

"There is a downside for the Russians as well, which is that you no longer have deniability. If you rebrand those forces as part of the army, you now own that problem," said Pham, a former senior US diplomat.

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Op dinsdag 30 januari 2024 18:04 schreef BlaZ het volgende:

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Sancties kunnen wel degelijk werken, maar dan moet je de wereldgemeenschap op een lijn krijgen. Sancties vanuit enkel de EU, de VS samen met Japen en Zuid-Korea werken niet.

Een goed voorbeeld waarbij sancties wel werkten is het apartheidsregime. Toen was de relatieve westerse economische macht echter ook veel groter.

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Ukrainian Drones 'Destroy Russian Mercenaries’ in Sudan
More footage has emerged of Ukrainian forces in action in Sudan where an apparent months-long operation against Russian mercenaries “is being conducted,” a source told Kyiv Post.

Exclusive videos obtained by Kyiv Post show Ukrainian drones taking out “Russian mercenaries” and their “local terrorist partners” in Sudan, according to sources in Ukrainian special services.

Filmed in “recent weeks” in an undisclosed part of the African country, the footage shows three separate strikes against three different vehicles.

Kyiv Post sources in the special services of Ukraine, said: “The work on the destruction of Russian mercenaries and their local terrorist partners in Sudan is likely the work of Ukrainian special forces."

They added: “The planned work is being conducted.”

The source did not provide details about casualties or damage caused by the strikes.

Ukrainian forces have been active in Sudan for months now. In November of last year, Kyiv Post obtained two videos purporting to show Ukrainian special forces operators hunting mercenaries in the country.

A source in Ukraine’s security and defense sector, said at the time an operation was currently ongoing to “clean up the Wagner PMC, their local terrorists and the Russian Federation's special services” in the African country.

Speaking to Kyiv Post, the source added: “The footage probably shows the work of special units of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine (HUR).”

They declined to give further details citing security concerns.

Why are Ukrainian forces operating in Sudan?
In May of last year, HUR Chief Kyrylo Budanov vowed to “destroy Russian war criminals anywhere in the world, wherever they are” and the apparently ongoing campaign in Sudan is part of this.

Russia, along with the Wagner Group, was directly involved in the coup in Sudan in 2019, supporting Hemedti and his fighters in the conflict and supplying weapons, with Wagner specifically providing surface-to-air missiles to the Rapid Reaction Force (RSF).

A senior Sudanese source told CNN last year that about 90 percent of RSF weapons came from Wagner, adding that the supply hasn’t stopped, despite the deaths of Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin and his deputy Dmitry Utkin in a plane crash in Russia.

In September, President Zelensky said he'd held an impromptu meeting with the head of the Sudanese Sovereign Council, Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, while travelling through Ireland's Shannon airport.

“We discussed our common security challenges, namely the activities of illegal armed groups financed by Russia,” he said in a post on social media.

EXCLUSIVE: Ukrainian Drone Footage Shows ‘Destruction of Russian Mercenaries’ in Sudan

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Op dinsdag 30 januari 2024 17:39 schreef Delenlill het volgende:

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Diegene die de claim doet ziet het wel degelijk als een recht. Zij denken dat ze recht hier op hebben, om wat voor reden dan ook, vandaar ook de claim.

En natuurlijk gaat het wel om de goede of verkeerde kant van het conflict. Heel simpel gezien hebben de verliezers van een oorlog aan de verkeerde kant gestaan. Vooral wanneer het over wereldoorlogen gaat. Dan heb ik het niet over de moraliteit van de oorlog, en dus wat qua moraliteit de goede en slechte kant was van een oorlog. De geschiedenis wordt namelijk geschreven door de overwinnaars.

En nee, ik wil Hongarije niet een neutrale staat noemen. Zij staan aan de kant van Rusland in dit conflict, dat hebben hun acties en uitspraken laten zien. Maar ze kunnen niet zonder de financiering van de EU. En de NAVO brengt hun een zekere veiligheid. Ze zijn niet direct betrokken bij de oorlog. Maar steunen Rusland daar wel in zover hun lidmaatschap van de EU en NAVO dat toe laat.

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Op dinsdag 30 januari 2024 18:04 schreef BlaZ het volgende:

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Sancties kunnen wel degelijk werken, maar dan moet je de wereldgemeenschap op een lijn krijgen. Sancties vanuit enkel de EU, de VS samen met Japen en Zuid-Korea werken niet.

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Op dinsdag 30 januari 2024 18:14 schreef -XOR- het volgende:

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Op lange termijn gaat Rusland natuurlijk redelijk kapot aan die sancties en zal het nominale BNP richting derdewereldniveau trekken maar daar heeft Oekraine verder weinig aan. Die gaan zelf ook kapot in een langdurige oorlog.

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Russia's Limited Launch of New Fields Signals Problems Ahead
Russia brought only three new oil and gas fields on stream in 2023 compared with 193 that were launched in the last five years, according to the Russian energy ministry's data for 11 months of last year.

Exploitation drilling increased at the same time but mainly to compensate for natural declines at mature fields.

The modest launch of new fields underpins growing signs that Russia's production is expected to stagnate in the coming years and fall in the longer term. This is in step with Moscow's own forecasts: First Deputy Economic Development Minister Ilya Torosov said last week that Russian oil exports and domestic consumption are expected to decline by 2035-40.

Lukoil's Progress
Lukoil launched the Grayfer field in the Russian sector of the Caspian sea last year although the company has yet to make an official announcement.

According to sources familiar with the Russian energy ministry's data, seven producing wells were drilled at Grayfer in the first 11 months of 2023. Exploitation drilling amounted to 28,360 meters.

The field, formerly known as Rakushechnoye, was discovered in 2001. It is the third field in the northern Caspian launched by Lukoil-Nizhnevolzhskneft. Its recoverable resources stand at some 140 million barrels, with output set to peak at 24,000 barrels per day.

From the neighboring Korchagina and Filanovskogo fields, Lukoil produced a joint 139,800 b/d of crude oil and gas condensate in 2022. Russia stopped publishing production figures in 2023.

Output from Grayfer was supposed to be sent for treatment to the technological platform of Filanovskogo and then to the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) pipeline running from Kazakhstan to a terminal near the Russian Black sea port of Novorossiysk for export to global markets.

According to analysts, Grayfer's capacity would allow Lukoil to keep production stable in the region, compensating for declines from Korchagina and Filanovskogo. As an added bonus, Grayfer would also utilize the sea infrastructure built by the oil producer.

Lukoil pays lower taxes in the Caspian Sea that are granted for shelf deposits and fields with complex geology.

According to the energy ministry, Lukoil-Perm also launched the Tatischeva field in the Volga-Urals region where two exploitation wells were drilled.

Tatneft brought on stream the Vostochno-Taktashskoye field in Tatarstan with two exploitation wells.

2024 Plans
The upstream outlook could improve this year as Rosneft is set to launch the Vostok Oil mega project which targets an initial output of 600,000 b/d. If it is launched at the end of the year, its impact could be minimal. Also, at least half of the volumes are to come from the operational Vankor and adjacent Suzunskoye and Lodochnoye fields that jointly produced 315,000 b/d of crude and condensate in 2022.

Lukoil already started test exploitation of the Yukkun-Yoganskoye field in West Siberia from two wells drilled on the acreage, the company said earlier this month. The plan is to drill 14 wells.

Russneft aims to start production from the Vostochno-Kamennoye field in West Siberia. It was supposed to be launched last year but was postponed because of crisis caused by the decline in oil prices and Opec-plus limitations.

Alexei Shatalov, head of Russneft's Khanty-Mansiysk subsidiary, told the company's magazine that 24 wells are to be drilled this year, which will yield 130,000 metric tons (2,600 b/d) of crude. Russneft General Director Yevgeny Tolochek said in an interview with Energy Intelligence last September that production could be in the range of 150,000 tons-180,000 tons in 2024 reaching a peak of 1.5 million tons/yr during four years.

Gazprom Neft was planning to launch commercial production from the Erviye field in West Siberia, the only field discovered by the Eurotek-Yugra subsidiary that Gazprom Neft was developing with Repsol before the Spanish company pulled out of joint ventures with the Russian company. Lukoil later replaced Repsol, but the duo made little progress in developing the field that harbors an estimated 250 million barrels of oil equivalent of complex reserves that require expensive technologies and tax breaks to make it economically effective.

Other than that, Gazprom Neft hopes to bring on stream the recently acquired Novoye field in Noyabrsk, one of the company's traditional region.

Growing Challenges
Exploitation drilling in the first 11 months of 2023 reached 28.072 million meters, according to sources familiar with Russia official data. This is 2.264 million meters above plan. In the whole of 2022, exploitation drilling amounted to 28.386 million meters.

Analysts suggest that growing drilling activity shows that the share of easy oil is shrinking, making production more expensive. Indeed, according to Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, the share of so-called "hard-to-recover" reserves already accounts for some 30% and is to rise to 70% by 2050.

Some experts also note that new fields were planned to be developed with the application of Western technologies that became unavailable after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Lack of technology could also force the Russian oil industry turn to less sophisticated ways of drilling, which would make wells less efficient and more expensive, posing the risk of losing a significant chunk of the country's production.

However, Moscow no longer considers the oil and gas industry as the most vital part of the Russian economy. According to Maxim Oreshkin, an aide to President Vladimir Putin, oil's contribution to the more than 3.5% growth of the Russian economy in 2023 was zero. He added that Moscow is not expecting a "rapid growth" of oil demand in future.

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Op dinsdag 30 januari 2024 18:22 schreef Digi2 het volgende:

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Ze werken wel maar niet optimaal. Bovendien duurt het nogal om de vele loopholes dicht te krijgen.