Oorlog in Oekraïne #920 Still no sign of Gerasimov.

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How Germany fudges the math on NATO and Ukraine
Germany has earmarked ¤8 billion ($8.7 billion) in military aid for Ukraine. But that's set to come from the general defense budget, making defense spending seem bigger than it is. It's a move that has many crying foul.

German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, the man tasked with modernizing the Bundeswehr, Germany's armed forces, has been in office for a year. He's the most popular minister in Chancellor Olaf Scholz's highly unpopular government.

But, shortly before the end of his first year on the job, plans for a major reform of Germany's armed forces, known as the "Zeitenwende" (turning point), were scaled back — again. In the federal budget for 2024, the government will barely reach NATO's spending target. That's been heavily criticized by the largest opposition party, the center-right Christian Democrats (CDU).

NATO countries have committed themselves to spending 2% of their budgets on their armed forces each year. After Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, Chancellor Scholz promised his partners in Europe and the US that Germany would meet this target in the future.

The German army was promised an additional ¤100 billion ($108 billion) to modernize. This special fund, a separate budget approved by the German parliament, the Bundestag, was established primarily to purchase modern war equipment.

However, it has emerged that aid for Ukraine is now also coming from this budget. Germany plans to spend a total of ¤8 billion on weapons for Ukraine starting this year.

Are Ukraine aid figures 'embellished'?
The CDU has been sharply critical of this. "The special fund is being used for ongoing operations and support, in contrast to what was stipulated in the constitution, and not for building up the armed forces," foreign and security policy expert Roderich Kiesewetter, a CDU party member, complained to DW. "It really is a system of nontransparency, a system intended to give the impression that Germany can still get to the 2% target," Kiesewetter said.

Kiesewetter is also critical of how Germany calculates how much aid it gives to Ukraine. "The figures are embellished … We had to look closely at what had actually been delivered. And we found that it's between ¤4 billion and ¤5 billion — over the past two years," Kiesewetter explained.

"Another ¤8 billion have been announced for this year, but not delivered, and it would be very honest and helpful if the German government published what has been delivered and not just what was promised."

Germany tells yet another story when it comes to the international community. The government says it has sent more than ¤17 billion in aid to Ukraine. But according to Kiesewetter, that figure also includes social services for the more than 1 million Ukrainian refugees who are in Germany.

The German government relies on figures from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IFW), which tracks international aid to Ukraine. The Institute's "Ukraine Support Tracker" includes detailed information on the value of the armaments supplied to Ukraine, including Leopard tanks from Bundeswehr stocks.

Criticism from France
France has challenged the IFW's aid calculations, which put French aid to Ukraine at less than ¤1 billion over the past two years. This would put France in 13th place among supporters of Ukraine. The EU leads the list, followed by the US, Germany and the UK.

France traditionally keeps its arms industry data secret. But there are reportedly rumors in the German international security community that the French government has tried to talk to IFW researchers and questioned their figures. The IFW did not respond to DW's questions on this.

But France says that at least it's being honest. "France is proud that it delivers everything it promises, and that everything that is delivered works," said the French defense minister shortly after his return from a visit to the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv.

It has emerged that Ukraine can hardly deploy any of the Leopard 2 tanks supplied by Germany because of high maintenance requirements. Lecornu also announced that France would build and deliver 74 more Cesar artillery pieces for Ukraine this year.

NATO budget target tricks are nothing new
Security expert Nico Lange from the Munich Security Conference believes Germany offers too few purchase guarantees to the defense industry. In addition, the Bundeswehr's procurement bureaucracy has not been reformed in the two years since the "Zeitenwende" was announced.

"It's just not happening fast enough. There was a lost opportunity to say that this is the turning point, we have more money, we have a special fund, and now we are doing things differently," Lange said.

Above all, little has changed in Germany's calculations regarding the 2% target for NATO. Previous governments were also very creative, Christian Mölling from the German Council on Foreign Relations told DW.

According to Mölling's analysis, in the worst-case scenario, NATO has just five years to build its forces enough to deter Russia from attacking NATO territory, especially the Baltic states.

But he says that the fact that the German government is now including aid to Ukraine in its NATO budget target accounting "can also be considered legitimate." That's because the Ukrainian army is, albeit indirectly, defending NATO territory against Russia.

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Russian Falcon plane crashes in Afghanistan
It became known that a passenger plane of a Russian company crashed in the mountains of Afghanistan.

The plane disappeared from radar over the Afghan province of Badakhshan. The Pajvak agency reports this.

At first, it was reported that this was an Indian ship en route to Moscow.

However, later, the Russian Federation admitted that the Falcon aircraft was registered in the state register of civil aircraft of the Russian Federation.

“The crashed plane was making a charter flight on the route Gaya (India) – Tashkent (Uzbekistan) – Zhukovsky (Russian Federation),” the Federal Air Transport Agency said.

It is known that there were two passengers and four crew members on board the Falcon 10.

The crashed plane belonged to the Athletic Group company.

The Dassault Aviation airliner was produced by a French company in 1978.

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Defense firm denies German politician's claim on missile supplies to Ukraine
German defense contractor Taurus Systems said on Jan. 20 that it could build up its Taurus cruise missile production very quickly, even if Germany sent some to Ukraine.

The company effectively denied a statement made earlier by Johannes Arlt, an expert at Germany's Social Democratic Party.

He claimed that Germany's defense industry would struggle to replenish its needed stockpiles if it sent the missiles to Ukraine.

The head of the company that makes Taurus missiles, Joachim Knopf, posted on Twitter that it would not be a problem to quickly scale up production of new ones.

German lawmakers rejected a proposal from the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Christian Social Union in Bavaria (CSU) parties on transferring long-range Taurus missiles to Ukraine, the Bundestag said on Jan. 17.

Taurus missiles have been the subject of extensive discussion since Ukraine submitted a request for the weapons, which have a range of up to 500 kilometers, in May 2023.

Bild reported in October that Olaf Scholz is against sending Taurus missiles to Kyiv because he fears the move will draw Germany into the war. Ukraine has received other long-range missiles, such as the Storm Shadow from the U.K. and the French-made SCALP.

The motion was rejected in a roll-call vote with 485 lawmakers against, 178 in support, and three abstentions.

CDU parliamentary leader Friedrich Merz said that Ukrainian forces currently have "no prospect" of holding off Russian troops and that Taurus cruise missiles could make a substantial difference.

Amid Scholz's hesitation in the transfer of long-range missiles, apparently due to fears of "escalation" with Russia, Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said that Taurus missiles would be "used solely inside our borders."

On Jan. 17, Berlin announced a new package of military aid for Ukraine, including ammunition for Leopard 1 tanks.

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Activists descend on Putin campaign office to demand demobilisation
The wives of Russian men called up to fight in the war in Ukraine visited Vladimir Putin’s re-election campaign office in Moscow on Saturday to demand the return of their husbands from the front line, independent news outlet SOTA reported.

Upon arriving at the office, the women were reportedly met by members of a pro-Putin “Volunteer Squadron” and anti-extremism police.

In a heated exchange, footage of which was quickly made available by Russian Telegram channels, the women asked staffers when Putin would sign a demobilisation order that would allow their husbands to return home.

In response to their demands, one campaign staffer replied that demobilising the troops would “damage male dignity,” and that men should fight as if they were “warriors and God’s unique creations.”

The women, part of demobilisation campaign group The Way Home, were watched by around 10 police officers as they laid flowers at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier outside the Kremlin before entering the Putin campaign’s election office nearby. One journalist covering the protest was detained but later released.

The gesture came in the wake of similar actions earlier this month, when around 15 women also laid flowers at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier and picketed government buildings around Moscow to demand the return of their husbands from the front.

Soldier's wife demands his return at Putin election HQ | REUTERS

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Translation:
Hello, our countrymen! While soldiers from Bashkiria are fighting for our country's interests here in trenches, spill blood, and die, there is lawlessness happening back home. Our people are being beaten with sticks. Let's get together and support Faiil Alsynov /speaks in Bashkir/ We are not defending our Motherland and her interests so that our people get beaten back home. They beat my mother, my father, my brothers... Have you lost your mind, f*ckers? Bashkiria, free Faiil! /all together/: Freedom for Fail! Allahu Akbar!