Oorlog in Oekraïne #916 Patriots

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Russia launched a total of 59 missiles and drones at Ukraine overnight and in the morning, the Air Force reported. Ukraine's air defenses shot down 18 cruise missiles and eight Shahed-136/131 drones.

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Russia’s Monday, Jan. 8, missile and drone strikes hit targets near the cities of Krivyi Rih, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia and Dnipro.

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Ex-defense officials charged with embezzling $25 million through bulletproof vest purchases
A former deputy defense minister and two other ex-defense officials were charged with embezzling almost Hr 1 billion ($25 million) through the purchase of low-quality bulletproof vests, the Prosecutor General's Office reported on Jan. 8.

The suspects also included the former head of the ministry's State Procurement Department and the ex-chief of the military's Material Support Department.

Procurement corruption has been a long-standing problem at the defense ministry, with two major scandals having preceded the ousting of former Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov last fall.

One of the main tasks given to Reznikov's successor, Rustem Umerov, was to strengthen transparency in the procurement process.

According to New Voice, the first two suspects are ex-Deputy Defense Minister Viacheslav Shapovalov and former State Procurement Department Bohdan Khmelnytskyi, who are currently in custody on other corruption charges.

The suspects allegedly purchased 50,000 low-quality, unusable vests for the military in 2022 amid the full-scale war. The equipment was bought from a foreign-based company, whose beneficial owners are Russian citizens, the investigation said.

Based on expert examinations, the purchase resulted in a loss of Hr 948 million ($25 million) in state funds.

The suspects have been charged with property embezzlement and obstruction of the activities of Ukraine's Armed Forces.

As part of previously launched proceedings, Shapovalov and Khmelnytskyi are suspected of spending Hr 350 million ($9.2 million) on low-quality body armor and almost Hr 1 billion ($26 million) on unsuitable military uniforms.

Ukrainian media also linked the two ex-officials to a food procurement scandal from last winter, leading to their resignation in January 2023.

Authorities are trying to establish the whereabouts of the third suspect, and searches were conducted at his place of residence, the prosecutors said.

The suspects face up to 12 years in prison.

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Ukrainian fighters destroy Russian satellite jamming system TIRADA-2
Ukrainian soldiers destroyed a Russian TIRADA-2 orbital satellite jamming complex in the Donetsk direction, according to the Special Operations Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Reportedly, operators of the 3rd Separate Regiment of the Special Operations Forces discovered a Russian electronic warfare complex TIRADA-2 during reconnaissance operations in the Donetsk direction.

Having determined the coordinates of the enemy target, the SOF operators directed the fire of a missile unit of the Ukrainian Defense Forces at it. As a result of precise fire, the electronic warfare system was destroyed.

The system is designed to disable communication satellites.

The Russians completed its development in the fall of 2018, and in the spring of 2019, TIRADA-2 was spotted in the temporarily occupied Luhansk region.

Ukrainian Special Operations Forces destroy Russian TIRADA-2 orbital satellite jamming system

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Ukrainian Mig-29 pilot dies during mission

Vladyslav Zalistovskyi, a 23-year-old MiG-29 pilot known by the call sign "Blue Helmet," died during a combat mission, the Defense Ministry's news channel Armiia TV reported on Jan. 8.

This comes as another loss in the ranks of Ukrainian combat aviators amid the full-scale war with Russia.

According to Suspilne, the 114th Tactical Aviation Brigade pilot of Ukraine's Air Force lost his life on the evening of Jan. 5.

The aviator's death was also confirmed by his relatives on social media.

He was known through his Instagram channel named Blue Helmet, where Zalistovskyi published videos of his flights. The account has over 2,200 followers.

Zalistovskyi graduated from the Ivan Kozhedub National Air Force University in Kharkiv in 2021 and has carried out dozens of combat sorties since the start of the full-scale war, Armiia TV said.

In another incident from last August, three Ukrainian pilots, including well-known aviator Andrii Pilshchykov with the call sign "Juice," died in a mid-air collision between two training jets.

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Putin’s Unsustainable Spending Spree
How the War in Ukraine Will Overheat the Russian Economy

After Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, its economy seemed certain to suffer as a coalition of Ukraine’s allies, led by the United States, imposed an unprecedented program of sanctions. Many figures, including U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and EU Sanctions Envoy David O’Sullivan, predicted that these would force Russian President Vladimir Putin to choose between the war and a struggling economy. But Russia’s economy has defied these predictions. Thanks to record state spending, the Russian economy will grow faster than the global economy in 2023. Whereas the latter is forecast by the IMF to grow by three percent, the former is predicted by the Russian government to grow by 3.5 percent. When the exact figures come in, Russia’s economic growth in 2023 will likely turn out to have exceeded three percent, and Putin will no doubt boast about this in speeches ahead of this spring’s presidential election.

Rather than signaling economic health, however, these figures are symptomatic of overheating. The Russian economy’s problems, in fact, are such that Putin is facing an impossible trilemma. His challenges are threefold: he must fund his ongoing war against Ukraine, maintain his populace’s living standards, and safeguard macroeconomic stability. Achieving the first and second goals will require higher spending, which will fuel inflation and thus prevent the achievement of the third goal. High oil and gas revenues, adept financial management by the Russian authorities, and lax enforcement of Western restrictions have all played their part in Russia’s economic growth, but they mask growing imbalances in the economy.

Ahead of the Russian election, Putin is unlikely to mention that over a third of Russia’s growth is due to the war, with defense-related industries flourishing at double-digit growth rates. Civilian industries, which are also involved in producing products for the front—such as footwear, clothing, and medicine—lag slightly behind. Russia’s bright 2023 economic landscape concealed dangerous tradeoffs made in pursuit of short-term gains. Even if Moscow’s financial leadership succeeds in cooling down the economy by the end of 2024, major problems caused by the war are inevitable. These include discontent over underfinanced public health, mounting shortages of tools and equipment due to the tightening sanctions regime, and major dislocations caused by mammoth investment in the defense industry. Future generations will pay a heavy price for the current state of affairs, although for now this is the last thing on the Kremlin’s mind.

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THE GATHERING STORM
Putin is apparently sincere in his belief that the Russian Empire and the Soviet Union both collapsed largely because of poor financial management. The modern Russian economy is run by professional technocrats, and Putin listens to their opinions. So far, the situation looks stable in the short term: the availability of yuan and gold reserves means Moscow need not worry about financing external debt. The cost of domestic borrowing has increased, and fiscal space has narrowed, but Russia’s low prewar debt-to-GDP ratio means that debt is unlikely to prove a significant risk in upcoming years. The government may also turn to domestic capital markets to provide financing for state spending as they privatize state property, especially parts of the military industry.

Still, the war is shaking the foundations of Russia’s economic stability. It has already taken its toll on pillars of economic policy crucial for macroeconomic stability, including the budget rule, freedom of capital flows, and—to some extent—the independence of the central bank.

Most of the self-inflicted wounds to the national economy cannot be healed without ending the war and the sanctions regime. Structural problems—particularly dependence on oil revenues, an inability to live without foreign, predominantly Chinese, imports, and negative demographic trends that have been exacerbated by the war—will not go away any time soon. To solve these problems would require years of structural reforms that attract investment and improve human capital. But the Kremlin is unable and sometimes unwilling to take these steps because of Putin’s obsession with political control.

Russia’s economy is more endangered than the growth statistics indicate, and the upcoming election may provoke further fateful decisions that could exacerbate long-term challenges if Putin decides to buy voters’ loyalty by splashing even more cash before polling day. Overheating—often a precursor to recession—is a growing threat, especially when institutions designed to mitigate shocks are either dysfunctional or being obliterated by the exigencies of war. With the war unlikely to end soon, the financial and economic costs will mount and are likely to bite Russia several years from now. This process could be speeded by a major global recession or a slowdown of the Chinese economy, which would hit Russia hard because of its heavy dependence on revenues from commodities exports. The specter of a bitter economic hangover looms large unless a new and sustainable Russian economic model emerges. But that remains highly unlikely. For Putin, the war is now an organizing principle of his domestic and foreign policy. To abandon the war without something that the Kremlin can define as victory would be impossible. A long conflict over Ukraine not only satisfies Putin’s geopolitical ambitions and vision but is also turning into his regime’s survival strategy. The trouble will be that his political goals are incompatible with the economic ones. Eventually, something will have to give.

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Russia reportedly drops bomb on occupied Luhansk Oblast town in 'emergency discharge'
While on a combat mission, a Russian military plane dropped an FAB-250 aerial bomb on Rubizhne in the occupied part of Luhansk Oblast in an "emergency discharge," the Moscow-installed leader in the region, Leonid Pasechnik, claimed on Jan. 8.

Russia has occupied parts of Luhansk Oblast since 2014. Following the start of the all-out war, Moscow's troops seized the majority of the region, including Rubizhne.

Nobody was injured during the incident, Pasechnik said on his Telegram channel. Residents of nearby houses, including two children, were evacuated, he added.

"An investigative and operational group of the Interior Ministry, as well as representatives of the Emergency Situations Ministry and the military commandant's office, are working on the spot," Pasechnik said on his Telegram channel.

According to the Russian proxy leader, "experts are working on neutralizing the ammunition."

The Kyiv Independent could not verify the claims.

The announcement came hours after Russia launched a mass missile strike against cities across Ukraine, killing at least four people and injuring over 30.

During a mass attack against Ukraine on Jan. 2, another Russian aircraft "made an emergency release of an aircraft ordnance" over the Russian village of Petropavlovka, Voronezh Oblast.

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Troels Lund expects Danish F-16 aircraft to be the first in Ukraine
Despite the delay in Denmark's donation of F-16 aircraft to Ukraine, the Danish aircraft are expected to be the first F-16 aircraft that Ukraine will receive in the war against Russia.

This is what Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen (V) says, who was in Nyborg on Sunday for De Radikale's New Year's rally to take part in a party leadership debate. Ritzau writes that.

- It is my clear expectation that the first F-16 aircraft will be the Danish ones that are donated, he says.

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Op dinsdag 9 januari 2024 11:33 schreef Cilantro het volgende:
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Draadje waar er geprobeerd wordt in te schatten hoeveel tanks en artillerie Rusland nog heeft.

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Op dinsdag 9 januari 2024 11:47 schreef MaxMark het volgende:

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Interessante en (redelijk) beargumenteerde cijfers. Ik vraag me wel af hoe het zit met aanvoer/productie sinds het begin de oorlog t/m nu. Onderaan de thread wordt kort over de productie gesproken (schatting van 200 tanks per jaar). Verder lijkt het me ook dat er met materiaal van N-Korea en Iran (en stiekem een beetje van China?) zou moeten worden gerekend.

Ik ben ook voorstander van de gedachte dat Rusland's materieel sneller kan zijn uitgeput dan men denkt en dat we daarom zoveel propaganda zien in de trend van "Oekraïne moet opgeven, het heeft geen enkele zin tegen al die macht van Rusland".

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Op dinsdag 9 januari 2024 06:02 schreef Delenlill het volgende:

https://nyheder.tv2.dk/li(...)-om-krigen-i-ukraine
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Ik mag toch hopen dat onze F-16s daar eerder zullen zijn dan in enkele maanden.

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The Danish Defense Ministry, as cited by Berlingske, underscored that the timeline for delivering aircraft is contingent upon several factors. It clarified that the successful instruction and readiness of Ukrainian pilots, along with sufficiency in logistics and necessary infrastructure for aircraft maintenance in Ukraine, dictate the schedule.

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..a significant statement made by the departing Prime Minister of the Netherlands, Mark Rutte, on December 22. He disclosed that the Netherlands is gearing up to deliver an initial set of 18 F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine. However, he firmly pointed out that certain criteria need to be satisfied before this transfer can commence.

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Op dinsdag 9 januari 2024 16:02 schreef Ulx het volgende:
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De EU kan ook besluiten Hongarije elk jaar te evalueren. Waarom die mafkees dit blijft doen is echt bizar.

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Op dinsdag 9 januari 2024 16:47 schreef Ulx het volgende:

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Hoe bedoel je?

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Op dinsdag 9 januari 2024 16:12 schreef BEFEM het volgende:

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Je zegt het verkeerd, het is niet bizar dat hij dit blijft doen. Het is bizar dat de EU dit accepteert.