quote:

Destructive winds, severe flooding as Tropical Cyclone “Belal” makes a direct hit on Reunion

The eye of Tropical Cyclone “Belal” passed over the northern part of Reunion Island (population 870 000), shortly after 06:00 UTC on January 15, 2024, with maximum sustained winds of 148 km/h (92 mph), and gusts to 213 km/h (132 mph).

Before the impact, Météo-France predicted potentially historic impacts and placed the entire island under a Purple alert, the highest level of warning, effectively implementing a total lockdown of the population. This included emergency and security services, with a strict prohibition on all movement.

Residents were advised to prepare for the cyclone’s impact by stocking up on essential supplies, unplugging electrical devices, refraining from using tap water, limiting phone use to emergencies only, and staying indoors for an extended period of 36 hours.

High waves, anticipated to reach heights between 13 to 15 m (42 – 50 feet), led to a heightened alert along the coastline, and flight operations at the island’s main airport were suspended.

After the peak of the cyclone passed, at around 08:00 UTC, the alert level was downgraded to Red, allowing emergency services to resume operations.

Despite the severity of the storm, Prefect Jérôme Filippini noted at a press briefing that the damage was less catastrophic than expected, but cautioned that the cyclone was not yet over for La Réunion.

The last major cyclone to hit Reunion was in 2014 but comparisons were drawn to Cyclone Firinga in 1989, remembered for its destructive impact on the island. Météo-France cautioned residents about a deceptive lull as the eye of the cyclone passed and warned of winds picking up from different directions, potentially reaching over 200 km/h (124 mph) on the coast and exceeding 250 km/h (155 mph) in higher altitudes.

Reports indicate severe flooding on Reunion Island and neighboring Mauritius.

The cyclone claimed the life of a homeless individual in Saint Gilles, who had not sought shelter.

Belal is the second named storm of the 2023/24 South-West Indian Ocean cyclone season.

France's Reunion Island on highest alert as Cyclone Belal hits • FRANCE 24 English

quote:

Tropical Low 05U
Potential tropical cyclone impact on Queensland coast from mid next week.
A tropical low is developing in the Coral Sea, well away from the Queensland coast.
The tropical low will strengthen during the weekend, and become a tropical cyclone by late Sunday or Monday.
The low will initially be slow moving then move on a general southerly or south southwesterly track from Sunday to Tuesday. Its movement then becomes uncertain but more likely to come towards the coast.
There is a significant risk that this system may impact the Queensland coast from later Tuesday onwards next week. A severe impact is possible.
Communities on the east coast of Queensland are advised to stay up to date with forecasts and warnings.

quote:

Should there be a Category 6 for extremely powerful hurricanes?

A group of scientists are proposing changes to the scale that measures the intensity of hurricanes to account for stronger storms.

Scientists behind a new study are proposing adapting the scale that measures the intensity of hurricanes to account for stronger storms.

On Monday, a pair of scientists published a research article exploring the "growing inadequacy" of the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale and possibly adding a Category 6.

The Saffir-Simpson scale currently goes from Category 1 to 5, with a Category 5 hurricane packing sustained winds of 157 mph or greater. The study, published on Feb. 5, explores the "growing inadequacy" of the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale and suggests adding a Category 6 by capping Category 5 storms at 192 mph. Anything above that would become a Category 6 hurricane.

During an interview on AccuWeather Prime, AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jon Porter discussed the ongoing debate over adding a Category 6 or even higher. "We do not see the need for the addition of a Category 6 to the Saffir-Simpson scale because experience shows that for Category 5 storms, the damage to most structures is catastrophic, with many buildings destroyed in a landfalling Category 5 hurricane, such as Hurricane Michael."

Porter says that for a scale to have value, it needs to help people make better decisions in order to save lives and protect property. "It is not evident how having an additional category on the Saffir-Simpson wind scale would improve preparation or decisions."

There is concern that adding additional numbers to the existing scale could have the opposite effect intended and reduce people's sense of urgency or need to prepare for lower-ranked Category 2 or 3 storms on the Saffir-Simpson scale. This could be a serious public safety issue, especially if those storms are accompanied by significant storm surge or flooding rain risks not incorporated into the Saffir-Simpson scale, which classifies wind speed only.

Founder and Executive Chairman Dr. Joel Myers said those inadequacies of the Saffir-Simpson Scale are why AccuWeather launched the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes. “For decades, AccuWeather has helped to protect people and property by using the practical application of science to benefit humanity. The Saffir-Simpson scale on its own doesn’t capture all the severe impacts of hurricanes and tropical storms, such as coastal storm surge and flooding rainfall, which, on average, are the primary cause of death and destruction due to hurricanes.”

Unlike the limited Saffir-Simpson scale, which accounts only for wind speed, the more comprehensive AccuWeather RealImpact Scale for Hurricanes is based on a variety of diverse contributing factors, such as flooding rain, high winds and storm surge as well as the total damage and economic impact from the storm. The unique scale informs people about the real impacts of a storm, so they can utilize the most accurate information to make the best decisions to protect themselves, their families and property from all of the dangers and risks of tropical storms and hurricanes.

quote:

A tropical cyclone watch warning has been issued for Queensland’s far north, ahead of what could be the arrival of a third cyclone in the state this summer.

The alert was issued for the southern Gulf coast west of Burketown on Wednesday evening.

Tropical low 07U is currently sitting in the western Gulf and has a 40 per cent chance of developing into Tropical Cyclone on Friday, according to the Bureau of Meteorology.

Port Roper in the Northern Territory to Burketown in Queensland, including Mornington Island and Borroloola, but not including Ngukurr are all within the watch zone.

The Tropical low is likely to bring strong winds and heavy rainfall to the southern Gulf of Carpentaria on Thursday and Friday.

quote:

A cyclone watch for the Northern Territory has officially been upgraded to a cyclone warning, with communities on the northern coast from Port Roper across to the Queensland border in the firing line.

Developing tropical low 07U continues to be tracked by the Bureau of Meteorology on Thursday, while flooding in the Katherine River around Nitmiluk continues to rise after a rain deluge earlier this week.

Communities on the north coast were first warned to brace for wild weather after a cyclone watch was announced by the Bureau on Wednesday afternoon.

The Bureau’s Shenagh Gamble told media on Thursday afternoon that the low was currently situated in The Gulf of Carpentaria, but that it would likely head back towards land in the coming days.

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Op vrijdag 9 februari 2024 14:00 schreef Frutsel het volgende:
[ twitter ]
[..]

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Op donderdag 22 februari 2024 09:00 schreef Frutsel het volgende:
[x]https://twitter.com/WeatherProf/status/1760448808381448444[/x]

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Op donderdag 22 februari 2024 09:00 schreef Frutsel het volgende:
[x]https://twitter.com/WeatherProf/status/1760448808381448444[/x]

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Op woensdag 28 februari 2024 14:17 schreef Frutsel het volgende:
[ x ]

quote:

ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KT) VWS, WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES 28-29 C, AND STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE
ENHANCED BY A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO THE SUBTROPICAL JET TO THE
SOUTH. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 95S WILL
RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATE WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY TRACK MOTION OVER THE NEXT
48 HRS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

quote:

Op woensdag 27 maart 2024 18:44 schreef aloa het volgende:
Dit beloofd een heftig seizoen te worden

[ afbeelding ]

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Op donderdag 28 maart 2024 09:32 schreef Frutsel het volgende:

[..]
As expected - the year after El Nino

quote:

At least 11 people have been killed and hundreds of homes destroyed as Cyclone Gamane smashed into northern Madagascar, according to officials.

The storm was projected to skim the Indian Ocean island, but changed course and hit the island’s Vohemar district in the early hours of Wednesday.

quote:

Op maandag 8 april 2024 08:13 schreef aloa het volgende:
Olga was een categorie 4. Is nu een categorie 3 met een kerndruk van 949 mb.
Net voor de westkust van Australië.

[ link | afbeelding ]

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Op dinsdag 23 april 2024 14:08 schreef Frutsel het volgende:
[ x ]

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Op donderdag 2 mei 2024 18:09 schreef aloa het volgende:
[ x ]

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Op donderdag 2 mei 2024 18:33 schreef Nattekat het volgende:

[..]
Komt nog eens bovenop dat er verwacht wordt dat er heel veel best ver oostelijk zullen komen, dus met landfall in de VS.

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Op donderdag 2 mei 2024 20:08 schreef aloa het volgende:

[..]
Die kans is er altijd wel.

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Op donderdag 2 mei 2024 20:12 schreef Nattekat het volgende:

[..]
Afgelopen jaar was ook heel actief, maar was er juist het tegenovergestelde gaande. Daardoor bleven de meesten op zee. Deze setup kan veel grotere gevolgen krijgen.

quote:

The 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season: University of Pennsylvania Forecast
University of Pennsylvania EES scientists Dr. Michael E. Mann and Shannon Christiansen, and Penn State ESSC alumnus Dr. Michael Kozar have released their seasonal prediction for the 2024 North Atlantic hurricane season, which officially starts on 1 June and runs through 30 November.

The prediction is for 33.1 +/- 5.8 total named tropical cyclones, which corresponds to a range between 27 and 39 storms, with a best estimate of 33 named storms. This prediction was made using the statistical model of Kozar et al. (2012, see PDF here). This statistical model builds upon the past work of Sabbatelli and Mann (2007, see PDF here) by considering a larger number of climate predictors and including corrections for the historical undercount of events (see footnotes).

The assumptions behind this forecast are (a) the persistence of current North Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies (+1.9°C in April 2024 from NOAA’s Coral Reef Watch) throughout the 2024 hurricane season, (b) development of a moderate La Nina (Niño3.4 anomaly of -0.5°C) conditions in the equatorial Pacific in late Boreal summer and fall 2024 (ENSO forecasts here; we used mid-April 2023), and (c) climatological mean conditions for the North Atlantic Oscillation in Fall/Winter 2023-2024.

If neutral ENSO conditions (Niño3.4 anomaly of 0.0°C) take shape later in 2024, then the prediction will be lower: 30.5 +/- 5.5 storms (range of 25 – 36 storms, with a best guess of 31).

Using an alternative model that uses “relative” MDR SST (MDR SST with the average tropical mean SST subtracted) in place of MDR SST yields a lower prediction (19.9 +/- 4.5 total named storms). This alternative model also includes positive ENSO conditions.

quote:

1. South of the Coast of Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form along a trough several
hundred miles to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec by the middle
to latter portion of this week. Thereafter, some gradual development
of this system is possible as the low begins to move slowly to the
west-northwest, remaining south of the coast of Mexico through early
next week.
* Formation chance through 48 Hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

quote:

South of the Coast of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form several hundred miles to
the south of southern Mexico during the next couple of days. Gradual
development is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could
form over the weekend or early next week while the system moves
slowly to the west or west-northwest, remaining south of the coast
of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

quote:

Op woensdag 22 mei 2024 08:13 schreef aloa het volgende:
Zoek de verschillen. Zowel GFS als ICON laten een categorie 3 zien bij landfall. Dit zal dan gebeuren in Bangladesh of India.

GFS
[ link | afbeelding ]

ICON
[ link | afbeelding ]

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Op woensdag 22 mei 2024 08:18 schreef Perrin het volgende:

[..]
Dit weekend al zo te zien?

Atlantic Canada bracing for fierce hurricane season

quote:

All signs are pointing to a very busy hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean.

The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has just released its annual hurricane season forecast and is projecting 17 to 25 storms, the most it has ever forecasted.

Of those storms, eight to 13 are expected to become hurricanes, but it's still too early to tell if they will hit Atlantic Canada.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/c(...)tlook-2024-1.7212351

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Op woensdag 5 juni 2024 08:34 schreef aloa het volgende:
Dit zou de eerste kunnen worden voor het Atlantische Seizoen. Een invest die zal ontstaan boven de Caribische zee en daarna via Cuba de golf van Mexico in duikt. Ver weg nog, maar wel iets om in de gaten te houden.

[ link | afbeelding ]

quote:

Op woensdag 5 juni 2024 16:08 schreef Frutsel het volgende:

[..]
Is dat een gevolg van die enorme blob die nu van de Afrikaanse kust af komt?

[ afbeelding ]

quote:

AccuWeather meteorologists have been monitoring the northwestern Caribbean for tropical activity for a couple of weeks. Indications are that torrential downpours that develop in the Gulf of Mexico and waters northeast of Florida have the potential to evolve into one or more tropical systems beginning during the second week of June.

While there is no sign of a tropical system rapidly forming and intensifying in the coming days, weak disturbances have recently caused trouble in the form of torrential downpours and flash flooding in some of the northern islands of the Caribbean.

https://www.accuweather.c(...)-by-mid-june/1657147

quote:

Forecasts for tropical activity in the Gulf of Mexico next week are rather inconsistent, but the situation will likely be governed by some broad themes:

🌀 A northward surge of tropical moisture from the western Caribbean into the Gulf of Mexico is expected beginning mid-week.

🌀 An upper-level trough over the central gulf coast will aid in ushering moisture northward and organizing thunderstorm activity, leading to possible formation of a broad area of low pressure in the gulf. The upper-level trough would also impose vertical shear and dry air on the developing low, most likely resulting in a sloppy-joe-style storm characteristic of June.

🌀 At a minimum, a multi-day period of heavy rain is likely for Cuba, parts of Florida, and the Bahamas as tropical moisture gradually encroaches northward, possibly creating flooding hazards. An organized, strong tropical cyclone with high winds isn't particularly likely in this setup, but we won't know for sure until a storm begins forming, if one indeed does next week.

https://x.com/TropicalTid(...)4z3dBFHVec38_3g&s=19

quote:

Vehicles were stranded on roads that were transformed into rivers across South Florida on Wednesday, including around Fort Lauderdale and Miami, as a tropical deluge inundated the region.

A state of emergency has been declared in Broward, Collier, Lee, Miami-Dade and Sarasota counties due to Wednesday's flooding.

Widespread flooding from a tropical rainstorm was reported across the area, with some of the worst conditions occurring north of Miami, where a rare flash flood emergency was issued by the National Weather Service. The "particularly dangerous situation" started to unfold ahead of the Wednesday evening commute.

https://www.accuweather.c(...)-in-24-hours/1658887

quote:

1. Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico early next week. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system,
and a tropical depression could form by the middle part of next week
while the system moves slowly westward or west-northwestward.
Regardless of development, several days of heavy rainfall are
expected across portions of southern Mexico and Central America.
These rains are likely to cause life-threatening flooding and flash
flooding.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

quote:

Op zaterdag 20 juli 2024 23:38 schreef aloa het volgende:
Dit is wel een hele lage kerndruk.

[ afbeelding ]

quote:

Millions of Britons were forced to drink subpar cups of tea last November due to the record-breaking low pressure caused by Storm Ciarán.

The low pressure caused the boiling point of water to drop below the 100C temperature some experts recommend to extract the full flavour from tea leaves.

The study by meteorologists at the University of Reading, published in the journal Weather, reported that the water in Reading was boiling at 98C on the morning of the storm.

quote:

Op maandag 29 juli 2024 07:22 schreef 12Beaufort het volgende:
Dit zou wat kunnen worden boven de Golf.

[ link | afbeelding ]

quote:

Op vrijdag 2 augustus 2024 17:44 schreef 12Beaufort het volgende:
[ afbeelding ]

quote:

We hebben onze voorspelling voor een extreem actieve orkaanseizoen in de Atlantische Oceaan in 2024 gehandhaafd. We hebben het aantal voorspelde benoemde stormen iets verlaagd, maar alle andere aantallen uit onze update van juli blijven hetzelfde. De zeewatertemperaturen in het belangrijkste ontwikkelingsgebied voor orkanen in de tropische Atlantische Oceaan en de Caraïben blijven dicht bij recordhoge niveaus. Extreem warme zeewatertemperaturen zorgen voor een veel gunstiger dynamische en thermodynamische omgeving voor de vorming en intensivering van orkanen. We verwachten tijdens het hoogtepunt van het Atlantische orkaanseizoen een koele neutrale ENSO of La Niña, wat resulteert in lagere niveaus van verticale windschering in de tropische Atlantische Oceaan. Deze voorspelling is van bovengemiddeld vertrouwen. We verwachten een ruim bovengemiddelde kans op het aan land komen van zware orkanen langs de kust van de Verenigde Staten en in de Caraïben. Zoals bij alle orkaanseizoenen worden kustbewoners eraan herinnerd dat één orkaan die aan land komt al voldoende is om het seizoen actief te maken. Grondige voorbereidingen moeten elk seizoen worden getroffen, ongeacht de voorspelde activiteit.

quote:

Het Fujiwara-effect treedt op tussen twee cyclonische draaikolken of vortices, als deze elkaar naderen. De twee cyclonen zullen dan een baan beschrijven om een gemeenschappelijk punt. De beschrijving hieronder is toegespitst op tropische cyclonen, maar het effect is van toepassing op allerlei soorten vortices, niet alleen in gassen, maar ook in vloeistoffen.

https://nl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fujiwara-effect

quote:

Op donderdag 8 augustus 2024 23:20 schreef Frutsel het volgende:
Zag al in Amerikaanse media dat de komende weken gunstigere omstandigheden gaan ontstaan voor de ontwikkeling van orkanen.

quote:

Op donderdag 8 augustus 2024 23:32 schreef 12Beaufort het volgende:

[..]
Minder windschering idd.
En La Nina..

quote:

Op vrijdag 9 augustus 2024 16:02 schreef Frutsel het volgende:
GFS gooit potentiële Ernesto op een leuke plek...

[ afbeelding ]

quote:

Op zondag 11 augustus 2024 10:13 schreef DemonRage het volgende:

[..]
Sandy 2.0

Alhoewel... Ernesto is kleiner en minder uitgediept.

Dit was Sandy in 2012:
[ afbeelding ]

quote:

Op maandag 12 augustus 2024 00:45 schreef SpeedyGJ het volgende:
Worden weer leuke beelden via de webcam van Bermuda als dit uitkomt
https://www.portbermudawebcam.com/

quote:

Op maandag 12 augustus 2024 09:39 schreef Frutsel het volgende:

[..]
Die doet het dan niet meer

quote:

Op maandag 12 augustus 2024 00:45 schreef SpeedyGJ het volgende:
Worden weer leuke beelden via de webcam van Bermuda als dit uitkomt
https://www.portbermudawebcam.com/

quote:

Op maandag 12 augustus 2024 13:26 schreef Frutsel het volgende:
[ afbeelding ]

Wordt gesplit?

quote:

Op vrijdag 16 augustus 2024 10:45 schreef Frutsel het volgende:
Broeit iets voor de Golf...

[ afbeelding ]

quote:

The National Hurricane Center says hurricane hunters found Hone’s peak wind speeds are now up to 65 mph with higher gusts as of Saturday morning, with the center of the storm sitting just under 270 miles east-southeast of Hilo.

Its current forecast track will have the center of Hone pass near or south of the Big Island from Saturday night into early Sunday. Some gradual strengthening is still expected at least over the next two days, with Hone likely to become a hurricane on Sunday and Monday as it spins southwest of the Big Island.

The center of the tropical storm is expected to remain far enough south of the islands to prevent a direct landfall, but the storm will pass close enough to bring heavy rain and strong winds to many of the islands, especially on the mountain downslope areas.

"The many different ecosystems of the Big Island will have different affects," said FOX Weather Correspondent Robert Ray. "The south shores will have the heaviest wind and lots of precipitation. In Hilo, in some areas, maybe a foot or so of rain… The problem with that kind of rain is that this is a very tough terrain. It's mountainous, it’s hilly, there are people that live on the hillsides, and there could be major problems with flash flooding and mudslides and rockslides."

https://news.google.com/r(...)S&gl=US&ceid=US%3Aen

quote:

Op donderdag 29 augustus 2024 12:07 schreef Frutsel het volgende:
Deze moeten we misschien eens goed in de gaten houden...

[ afbeelding ]

quote:

Op donderdag 29 augustus 2024 12:07 schreef Frutsel het volgende:
Deze moeten we misschien eens goed in de gaten houden...

[ afbeelding ]

quote:

Op maandag 9 september 2024 21:10 schreef aloa het volgende:
Francine is inmiddels een feit. De 6e storm met een naam.


[ afbeelding ]

quote:

Op woensdag 18 september 2024 17:03 schreef aloa het volgende:
Dit is volgende week boven de golf van Mexico.

[ afbeelding ]

quote:

2. Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is likely to form during the next few
days over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the adjacent portions
of Central America. Thereafter, gradual development of this system
is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form as the
system moves slowly northward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea
and Gulf of Mexico through the end of the week. Regardless of
development, this system is expected to produce heavy rains over
portions of Central America during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

quote:

Op maandag 23 september 2024 21:36 schreef aloa het volgende:
De drie orkaanmodellen laten nu een categorie 5 zien boven de Golf van Mexico.
HAFS-A komt zelfs met 899 mb.
De kans op een zeer zware orkaan is dus zeker aanwezig.

[ afbeelding ]

quote:

Op dinsdag 24 september 2024 16:43 schreef devzero het volgende:

[..]
Hier begint iedereen al een beetje in paniek mode te raken. We zien wel.

quote:

Op dinsdag 24 september 2024 17:14 schreef Starhopper het volgende:

[..]
Woon je daar? Lijkt mij heel eng zo'n orkaan

quote:

Op dinsdag 24 september 2024 18:13 schreef devzero het volgende:

[..]
Ja, in Noord Florida en de voorspelling is dat de orkaan donderdagavond precies over mij heen komt. Maar vaak buigt het toch altijd wat af, dus we zien wel.

quote:

Op dinsdag 24 september 2024 18:45 schreef Starhopper het volgende:

[..]
Ik vind het altijd heel machtig om te zien en te volgen maar als zoiets over mijn huis zou gaan, dan zou ik wel flink billenknijpen

Maar orkanen ben je inmiddels wel gewoon denk ik. Hopelijk buigt hij deze keer ook af en loopt het met een sisser af voor je. Ben je wel al voorbereid mocht hij wel richting jou komen? Zoals materiaal om de ramen dicht te spijkeren en voldoende water en eten?