Caspian Report
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Its impossible. Every bridge crossing the Dniepr river at that area into southern Kherson has been blown. Moving heavy weapons into that area, especially what limited tanks they have or will acquire, along with artillery forces is simply too much of an already degraded Ukrainian military to accomplish.
There's only two ways to go about it. One is suicide, another is a long and brutal campaign.
Firstly, the suicidal option: A successful crossing into Southern Kherson and establishing a secure beachhead thats sustainable and able to expand and break any efforts at containment. Right away, this is just not possible for them. It would be an act of insanity to even attempt this.
Secondly, pushing south from Zapor. and pushing towards the sea of Azov. A risky ploy that would come under relentless attacks from unmitigated air, sea, and artillery assets. Any ground taken, comes at an enormous loss of a life, just like in Kharkiv, and northern Kherson, but much worse. This is ontop of a high intensity attrition situation around Bakhmut, which Ukraine seems hellbent on holding no matter the cost, even if the cost is the war in the long run, on some faint hope that the west will escalate its commitments eventually.
Now all that said, is assuming the Russians just sit on their hands and do nothing with the immense amounts of man power they added to the skeleton force they started the war with. The amount of men and equipment needed for this kind of operation, is just not in the cards for Ukraine. What I would imagine would happen, is the moment Ukraine attempts any kind of offensive anywhere else, the Russians will rotate forces around to bog them down, with enough assets to go in pursuit, and then strike again in the north of the country with a large contingent of fresh troops around Sumy and Kharkiv, alongside the tense fighting as mentioned before, ongoing around Donbas. In short, this political aim of retaking Crimea, is how Ukraine loses the war. Overstretched and pressured on 3-4 fronts, amidst a botched offensive into the south will lead to panic and collapse.
Something else to consider here, is that until recently, the Russian forces deployed to Ukraine were too numerically insignificant to pursue retreating enemies, offering only artillery fire in most instances. Imagine a botched counter offensive in the south leads to a messy retreat and the outright slaughter or capture of a considerable chunk of those forces, and as mentioned before, they have hardened those lines, and have them properly manned with sufficient forces. They're no longer performing rear guard actions and letting the artillery diminish the enemy outright until they retreat and return to former positions. They're holding ground and repelling the enemy outright.
[ Bericht 14% gewijzigd door slashdotter3 op 31-01-2023 13:10:38 ]