quote:
Op vrijdag 2 december 2022 20:19 schreef JimmyJames het volgende:Amazon put geschreven (Jan19'24 65 PUT @ 3.95). Met dit aandeel zit ik steeds maar te denken: ik koop ze wel als ze flink lager staan, want op de lange termijn is het duidelijk een winnaar. Ik denk dat ze binnen een paar jaar richting een FCF van $50B zullen gaan. Dat zit ik tegen mijn theoretische aankoopprijs van $61 op ongeveer $600B market cap oftewel 12x die FCF. Of misschien rol ik de put wel door over 1 jaar. Ik heb duidelijk te weinig geduld voor de beurs. Want we zullen zeker nog VIX > 30 dagen krijgen dit jaar
De tekst hieronder van Sean Peche
https://www.linkedin.com/(...)462270919049216--BRt is alweer een paar maanden oud maar wel relevant voor mensen die overwegen in Amazon te investeren. Geeft namelijk een alternatief perspectief. Zou persoonlijk in 2023 veel meer in de klassieke value stocks gaan zitten.
—————————-
Me: Alexa, Do you remember we had a long conversation 3 mths ago
Alexa: I do
Me: and you know I love Amazon’s products?
Alexa: Of course, I wake you every morning
Me: Great, because you mustn't take this the wrong way – I just want to separate a company’s products from the return opportunity of an investment
Alexa: I won’t
Me: Alexa, your market cap after Friday's collapse is still $1.3trillion & in the last 12 months, you generated Net Income of $21bn but suffered a Free Cash OUTflow of $24.6bn
Alexa: Yes, Capex cost $64bn
Me: Now in the prior 12 months to 31 March 2021, you generated Net income of $27bn but enjoyed a Free Cash INflow of $21.8bn
Alexa: Yes, we “only” spent $45bn that yr
Me: So, over the 2 years of Covid, when the world has spent a combined $900bn with you, you had a
net OUTflow of $2.8bn
Alexa: sounds right
Me: after adding back Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) expenses of $23.5bn which assumes a zero cash cost of options (??)
Alexa: yes
Me: Is SBC coming down?
Alexa: No. Our CFO said, “This year we expect to see SBC expense of approximately $6 bn, up from $3.3 bn in Q1, largely reflecting wage inflation ..”
Me: Is Capex coming down?
Alexa: No. He also said, “For full-year 2022, we do expect infrastructure spend to grow year-over-year”
Me: So is anything coming down - except profits & cash flow?
Alexa: I don’t understand sarcasm
Me: Sorry, Alexa
Me: Now, before I get to discuss my investment opportunity, I’m going to divide everything by 1m to make it relatable to AMZN
Alexa: Ok
Me: So, let’s say I offered you an investment proposition to invest $1.3m with me (AMZN mkt cap / 1m)
Alexa: and what do I get in "Return" for giving you $1.3m?
Me: You don’t get anything
Alexa: But shouldn’t I get a “Return” on my $1.3m?
Me: Well, I may “Return” to you after 2 years for a further cash injection if outflows continue exceeding inflows. Is that what you mean?
Alexa: No
Me: Well, what “Return” do you want?
Alexa: Well unless you beat inflation’s 8.5% I’m getting poorer in real terms
Me: But then I have to generate $110k on your $1.3m - 5x more than I made in perfect conditions during Covid ($21.8k)
when everyone was sitting at home ordering my stuff
Alexa: Well, if you can only generate $21.8k in ideal conditions then maybe your investment is only worth $256k (21.8/0.085) not $1.3m
Me: Are you suggesting that my investment opportunity is 5x overvalued?
Alexa: Why not? You’re maturing
P&G grew revenue faster than you in Q1 &
generated $30bn of FCF in 2 yrs vs your -$2.8bn
but is "only" 1/3 your value - $385bn (pricey)
Me: But 96% of broker analysts think I’m a Buy
+ I’m the 3rd largest holding in the largest Passives
Alexa: Well maybe they will all:
“Return” to their spreadsheets &
Passive investors will
"Return" to Active -who likes performing in line with falling markets?
before your investment opportunity
“Returns” to planet earth
Me: Goodnight Alexa,
[ Bericht 2% gewijzigd door Sigmund_Freud op 03-01-2023 21:23:41 (Credit toegevoegd) ]
Multiply it by infinity, and take it to the depth of forever, and you will still have barely a glimpse of what I'm talking about.