Oorlog in Oekraïne #370 Geen Big Macs voor Rusland

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Op dinsdag 24 mei 2022 19:48 schreef Discombobulate het volgende:

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Dat zegt ie toch ook

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Op dinsdag 24 mei 2022 19:23 schreef AchJa het volgende:
Ukraine Is in Worse Shape than You Think

It has been said that, given how massively Ukrainian troops were believed be outmatched early in Russia’s invasion, not losing the war is itself a form of victory for Ukraine. The difference between expectations and the surprising resilience of Ukraine’s military makes it easy to misinterpret the current situation in Ukraine’s favor. But not winning is still not winning. Ukraine is in far worse shape than commonly believed and needs, and will continue to need, a staggering amount of aid and support to actually win.

We love an underdog. We love a plucky little guy who beats the odds. It fuels hope for our ordinary selves and allows us to feel we are on the morally superior side. This is why Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has appealed so successfully to the world. His defiance against the odds gave us someone to root for against a bully. While cheering on the scrappy, outmatched Ukrainians, we could also assuage some of our shame at leaving them—to whom we had made promises of protection, “security guarantees”—to die alone in the snow and the mud.

Unfortunately, Zelensky’s leadership and the outpouring of international military and humanitarian assistance it has elicited have not prevented a shocking level of destruction to Ukraine’s cities, economy, and society. The fact that Kyiv has not fallen and Russian troops have retreated to the east masks that Ukraine is in worse shape than portrayed in the media.

It is worth remembering that Ukraine has been fighting a Russian invasion since 2014. Between 2014 and February 2022, almost 10,000 were killed in the simmering war in the Donbas, but little or no military progress was made. Now, Ukraine is fighting with that same army in an expanded theater against a bigger opposing force. It is a testament to the pure valiance of its troops that Ukraine has managed since February 24 not only to hold its line but force the Russians into a retreat from Kyiv, Kharkiv, Chernigiv, and surrounding areas.

Nonetheless, Russia now controls significantly more Ukrainian territory than before February 24. Putin’s army holds Kherson, whatever is left of Mariupol, all the intervening territory, and now not only Luhansk and Donetsk but the entire Donbas Oblast. For example, whereas Ukrainian authorities controlled approximately 60% of Luhansk before the recent Russian invasion, now Russian forces control over 80% of the region. They also have about 70% of Zaporizhye region. Cumulatively, this accounts for an increase of Russian occupied territory from approximately 7%, including Crimea, before February more than double that now. Viewed this way, not losing looks a lot more like losing than winning.

Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense is not releasing combat casualty numbers to maintain morale, but experts believe it has lost at least 25,000 troops — up to 11,000 deaths and 18,000 wounded —since the February 24 invasion. Over two and a half months into the war, Ukraine’s losses are at least 10% of their now undoubtedly exhausted army of under 250,000. This is, however, many, many fewer than Russia’s casualties, believed to be over 35,000, and buttressed by an astonishing loss of weapons and equipment, such as tanks and warships.

Ukraine’s relative success is due in part to the weapons at least 31 western governments have been donating. The U.K. has sent anti-tank, anti-air, and anti-ship missiles, air defense systems, and other weapons; Slovakia the S-300 air defense system; the U.S. drones, howitzers, missiles, and anti-armor systems; and this is just a sampling. These weapons have allowed Ukraine to maximize its home field advantage, leverage its troops’ greater resolve, and exploit Russia’s military weaknesses and apparent lack of adequate planning and preparation. Without these donations, Kyiv may well have fallen by now.

While Ukraine is flush with weapons and other military supplies and equipment, however, Ministry of Defense officials and volunteer fighters are both quietly admitting that they lack the capacity to absorb so much aid. Much of the equipment and weaponry requires new training to be used. Even when that is available it takes time. Similarly, the influx of 16,000 or more foreign volunteer fighters would seem like a decisive boon, but in fact almost none of them had any military experience or training. They proved little more than extra mouths to feed in most cases, according to Ministry of Defense staff and some of the volunteer foreign special forces soldiers on the ground.

Economically, Ukraine is surviving, but only that. The sanctions on Russia that are expected to cause a less than 7% contraction in GDP compare rather unfavorably to the 45-50% GDP collapse Ukraine is facing. At least 25% of businesses are closed, although the number that have completely stopped has fallen from 32% in March to 17% in May. But a Black Sea blockade of Ukraine’s ports—Mariupol, Odesa, Kherson, and others—by Russia’s navy is preventing both the import of fuels to power the agricultural sector, and also the export of grain and other Ukrainian products. The inability to export is costing Ukraine’s economy $170 million per day. Meanwhile, Russia is targeting Ukrainian fuel storages, grain silos, and agricultural equipment warehouses, damaging already tattered supply chains. The power sector is facing default because so few Ukrainian citizens and companies are able to pay their electricity bills.

Not only is May a critical agricultural month, but it is when Naftogaz usually starts buying natural gas to store it for the cold Ukrainian winter. The state-owned energy giant was already in bad shape before the invasion, with the CEO asking the Ukrainian government for a $4.6 billion bailout in September 2021. Now, with very tight gas markets and no funds, it is unclear how the country can prepare for winter, when temperatures can fall to below 20 Fahrenheit. Adding to the prospect of a tragic 2022-2023 winter, most of Ukraine’s coal mines are in the Donbas, where Russia’s offensive continues.

The White House is reportedly considering forgiving Ukrainian sovereign debt, which would undoubtedly help Bankova (the Ukrainian White House equivalent). So too will, among other efforts, the ¤15 billion in debt securities the European Commission plans to issue to cover Ukraine’s next few months. However, this will not coax back the over six million mostly women and children who have fled Ukraine. If men were allowed to leave, the numbers would almost certainly be double.

Recent reports that 25,000-30,000 are returning daily to Ukraine from abroad are encouraging, but Ukraine faced a brain drain problem before the invasion. The poorest country in Europe, many citizens were already trying to leave. Before the war, Ukrainians were the third largest immigrant population in the E.U., behind only Morocco and Turkey. Now, the International Labor Agency estimates that 4.8 million jobs have been lost in Ukraine, which will rise to seven million if the war continues. And after many months of war, children will have settled in new schools abroad, mothers will be integrating in their new worlds, and both will be waiting for their husbands and fathers to join them. Some will return to Ukraine, of course, but many will prioritize their family’s comfort and children’s opportunities over the calls of patriotism.

Most troublingly, many Ukrainians still in their country have begun to wonder how it will rebuild itself. The war has torn the fabric of society. One mother in Poltava said she no longer trusts the neighbors she has lived next to for 40 years, people she considered to be family before the invasion. A young volunteer, formerly a civil society activist, described hunting for saboteurs, and how he has begun to see Russian sympathizers everywhere. Native Ukrainian speakers of Russian, who constitute at least a third of the population, are uncomfortable or even scared to use their mother tongue. Trust has been shattered, even while nationalism has been motivated. No matter how quickly Russia is beaten back, rebuilding communities will be a challenge.

The U.S. government decided in May to symbolically move some of its diplomatic staff back into Kyiv, partially reversing its rapid, defeatist withdrawal when it assumed Kyiv would fall within days. President Biden has even, finally, nominated a U.S. ambassador to Ukraine after more than a three-year leadership gap. The message this and E.U. gestures send is important. But despite our desire to see in outmatched Ukraine’s survival a tale of David beating Goliath, and to cheer ourselves for donating the slingshot, the country is seriously, dangerously weakened.

Ukraine needs more than symbols, and more than weapons. Not losing is not winning, and it will take a long and deep commitment by the western world to help Ukraine both win and then heal.

Time

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Op dinsdag 24 mei 2022 19:53 schreef OllieA het volgende:

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Dit lijkt mij een realistische visie, en het wordt alleen maar erger. Ik word niet goed van de beelden die uit Oekraïne komen. Kinderen verminkt voor hun leven, platgewalste dorpen en steden. Ik begin ze te vermijden...
Maar wat moet er dan gebeuren? Poetin-Rusland lijkt die landbrug Krim naar Donetsk/Luhansk te gaan houden, inclusief de etnische cleansing die daar onvermijdelijk bijhoort. Dat is allemaal al gaande. En is wat mij betreft niet acceptabel.

Van mij mag er een NAVO-coalitie of the willing opstaan die met troepen de Oekraïeners gaat helpen verdedigen tot minimaal de grenzen van 2014.

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Op dinsdag 24 mei 2022 20:08 schreef Cherni het volgende:

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Als Zelensky nu eens wat minder aan zijn PR denkt en meer aan zijn troepen en zijn legerleiding serieus neemt zijn er kansen. Maar schijnbaar mogen de troepen zich niet terugtrekken en dreigen ze steeds te worden ingesloten dit terwijl de legerleiding net als in Mariupol vraagt om zich deels terug te trekken om verliezen te beperken en zich te kunnen hergroeperen maken ze een kans.

Het spijt me, maar Zelensky begint mij te irriteren en offert zijn troepen op. Schijnt niet te luisteren naar de legerleiding.

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Hungary announces ‘state of danger’ over war in Ukraine
By JUSTIN SPIKE
an hour ago
FILE - Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban arrives for an EU summit in Brussels, on Oct. 22, 2021. The European Union wants to impose a new round of sanctions against Russia over its war in Ukraine, but Hungary has emerged as one of the biggest obstacles to unanimous support needed from the bloc’s 27 member nations. (Olivier Hoslet, Pool Photo via AP)
FILE - Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban arrives for an EU summit in Brussels, on Oct. 22, 2021. The European Union wants to impose a new round of sanctions against Russia over its war in Ukraine, but Hungary has emerged as one of the biggest obstacles to unanimous support needed from the bloc’s 27 member nations. (Olivier Hoslet, Pool Photo via AP)
BUDAPEST, Hungary (AP) — Hungary has declared a legal “state of danger” in response to Russia’s war in neighboring Ukraine, the prime minister announced Tuesday, allowing the right-wing nationalist government to take special measures without the participation of the legislature.

In a video on social media, Prime Minister Viktor Orban said that the war in Ukraine represents “a constant threat to Hungary” which was “putting our physical security at risk and threatening the energy and financial security of our economy and families.”

In response, he said, a “war state of danger” would take effect beginning Wednesday, allowing the government “to respond immediately and protect Hungary and Hungarian families by any means possible.”

The move came after Orban’s ruling party passed a constitutional amendment Tuesday allowing for legal states of danger to be declared when armed conflicts, wars or humanitarian disasters were taking place in neighboring countries.

The special legal order permits the government to enact laws by decree without parliamentary oversight, and permits the temporary suspension of and deviation from existing laws.

Hungary’s government implemented similar measures in response to the COVID-19 pandemic to outcry from critics and legal observers, who argued they gave the government authority to rule by decree. That special legal order was set to expire on June 1.

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Orban’s government has been accused of eroding democratic freedoms in Hungary since taking power in 2010, and using state resources to cement its power. The governing Fidesz party won a fourth-straight election victory on April 3, giving Orban, the longest-serving leader in the European Union, an additional four-year term.

In a statement Tuesday, Emese Pasztor of the Hungarian Civil Liberties Union wrote that Hungary’s government was “once again adapting the rules of the game to its own needs.”

“By always allowing the possibility of introducing a special legal order in the future, it will lose its special character. It will become the new normal, which will threaten the fundamental rights of all of us, and rule by decree will further diminish the importance of Parliament,” Pasztor wrote.

Governmental decrees issued through the special legal order are valid for 15 days unless extended by Hungary’s parliament. Orban’s Fidesz party has held a two-thirds majority in parliament since 2010.

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Op dinsdag 24 mei 2022 20:08 schreef Tocadisco het volgende:

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Bron?

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Op dinsdag 24 mei 2022 20:09 schreef Confetti het volgende:

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https://apnews.com/articl(...)_campaign=SocialFlow

Nazi-(vriendje) Viktor Orban kondigt een staat van beleg af. Hoe is het in godsnaam mogelijk dat zo'n land enige recht van spreken heeft binnen een samenwerkingsverband van beschaafde naties en volkeren?

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Op dinsdag 24 mei 2022 20:08 schreef Cherni het volgende:

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Als Zelensky nu eens wat minder aan zijn PR denkt en meer aan zijn troepen en zijn legerleiding serieus neemt zijn er kansen. Maar schijnbaar mogen de troepen zich niet terugtrekken en dreigen ze steeds te worden ingesloten dit terwijl de legerleiding net als in Mariupol vraagt om zich deels terug te trekken om verliezen te beperken en zich te kunnen hergroeperen maken ze een kans.

Het spijt me, maar Zelensky begint mij te irriteren en offert zijn troepen op. Schijnt niet te luisteren naar de legerleiding.

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Op dinsdag 24 mei 2022 20:13 schreef mcmlxiv het volgende:

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Ja daar ben ik ook wel nieuwsgierig naar. Werkelijk nergens kan ik een aanwijzing vinden dat er onenigheid tussen zelensky en zijn legerleiding zou zijn.

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Op dinsdag 24 mei 2022 20:30 schreef Tocadisco het volgende:

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Het leest als weer de zoveelste variant op 'Zelensky is een acteur die niet weet waar die mee bezig is'. Het enige dat er nog aan mist is dat filmpje waarmee de piano met zijn leuter bespeelt.

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Op dinsdag 24 mei 2022 18:35 schreef Cherni het volgende:

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Dat riep deze geopolitieke kenner en oud politicus al heel lang. Lang voor 2014. En hadden we maar meer figuren als Kissinger in deze tijd.

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“I worked in intelligence,” Vladimir Putin finally told him, according to “First Person,” a 2000 autobiography cobbled together from hours of interviews with the then-unfamiliar Russian leader. To which Kissinger replied: “All decent people got their start in intelligence. I did, too.”

As Putin climbed the ranks in the Kremlin, eventually becoming the autocratic president he is today, he and Kissinger kept up a warm rapport even as the United States and Russia grew further apart.

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Op dinsdag 24 mei 2022 19:01 schreef ExTec het volgende:

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Beetje vanuit de redenering dat als we putin maar niet "vernederd" hadden, oid, dit niet gebeurt was?

Het normaliseren van relaties met China schijnt ook zijn 'verdienste' geweest te zijn.

Goed gedaan, mr Kissinger. Gaat nu immers helemaal toppie met dat land, gaat voorbeeldig, echt een enorme aanwinst, dat land, voor de wereldgemeenschap.

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Op dinsdag 24 mei 2022 20:31 schreef xpompompomx het volgende:
Schitterende beelden, dikke apocalyptische sfeer en dikke bijpassende dark ambient soundtrack. Alsof je naar een film van Tarkovski zit te kijken.
Geen idee wie het inelkaar gedraaid heeft, maar de beelden zijn in ieder geval geschoten door een Oekraïner die in Azovstal zat.

The last day at Azovstal, Mariupol, UKRAINE. Dmytro ‘Orest’ Kozatsky

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Op dinsdag 24 mei 2022 20:43 schreef Repentless het volgende:

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Je vindt dat Kissinger dat niet goed heeft gedaan m.b.t. China? Zo nee, wat had hij moeten doen zodat het wel goed was geweest?

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Op dinsdag 24 mei 2022 20:31 schreef xpompompomx het volgende:
Schitterende beelden, dikke apocalyptische sfeer en dikke bijpassende dark ambient soundtrack. Alsof je naar een film van Tarkovski zit te kijken.
Geen idee wie het inelkaar gedraaid heeft, maar de beelden zijn in ieder geval geschoten door een Oekraïner die in Azovstal zat.

The last day at Azovstal, Mariupol, UKRAINE. Dmytro ‘Orest’ Kozatsky

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Op dinsdag 24 mei 2022 20:46 schreef Isdatzo het volgende:

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Volgens mij is dat deze guy: https://www.theguardian.c(...)-azovstal-metalworks

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Op dinsdag 24 mei 2022 20:46 schreef ExTec het volgende:

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Moeilijk te zeggen.

Maar moeten we daarom het resultaat maar goed noemen ofzo?

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Op dinsdag 24 mei 2022 20:31 schreef xpompompomx het volgende:
Schitterende beelden, dikke apocalyptische sfeer en dikke bijpassende dark ambient soundtrack. Alsof je naar een film van Tarkovski zit te kijken.
Geen idee wie het inelkaar gedraaid heeft, maar de beelden zijn in ieder geval geschoten door een Oekraïner die in Azovstal zat.

The last day at Azovstal, Mariupol, UKRAINE. Dmytro ‘Orest’ Kozatsky

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Op dinsdag 24 mei 2022 20:49 schreef Repentless het volgende:

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Als het doel was om relaties met China te normaliseren en dat is gebeurd, dan kun je het resultaat inderdaad 'goed' noemen.

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Op dinsdag 24 mei 2022 20:58 schreef ExTec het volgende:

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Ja, helaas dat het nu dus weer bergafwaarts gaat hé.

Het idee dat totalitaire regimes maar lang genoeg aan het lijntje houden, ze vanzelf veranderd in democratische regimes, is zo dood als disco.

En in dat licht moet je normaliseren dus zien. Niet als dat voorheen china niet met ons wilde praten ofzo.

Inzake china ging het vanaf Deng Xiaoping redelijk, zijn 2 opvolgers ook nog wel, maar nu gaat het weer rap de verkeerde kant uit.

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Op dinsdag 24 mei 2022 21:11 schreef Repentless het volgende:

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"Relaties normaliseren" is niet synoniem voor "wij vertellen hoe ze moeten leven en als wij vinden dat ze aan onze standaarden voldoen zijn ze goed genoeg om een goede relatie met ons te mogen hebben".

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Op dinsdag 24 mei 2022 21:14 schreef Papierversnipperaar het volgende:

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Het is ook niet dictators overal hun egoïstische klote-zin in geven.

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Op dinsdag 24 mei 2022 21:15 schreef Repentless het volgende:

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Klopt, maar dat zegt ook niemand.

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Op dinsdag 24 mei 2022 21:18 schreef Papierversnipperaar het volgende:

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Nee, je insinueert het alleen.

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Op dinsdag 24 mei 2022 21:20 schreef Repentless het volgende:

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Nee, dat is slechts wat jij ervan maakt.

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Op dinsdag 24 mei 2022 21:21 schreef Papierversnipperaar het volgende:

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Nee, dat is wat ik vast stel. Ik zorg er niet voor dat jij iets insinueert, dat doe jij.

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Op dinsdag 24 mei 2022 21:11 schreef Repentless het volgende:

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"Relaties normaliseren" is niet synoniem voor "wij vertellen hoe ze moeten leven en als wij vinden dat ze aan onze standaarden voldoen zijn ze goed genoeg om een goede relatie met ons te mogen hebben".

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Op dinsdag 24 mei 2022 21:22 schreef Repentless het volgende:

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Snap je zelf deze wartaal nog?

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Op dinsdag 24 mei 2022 21:15 schreef Repentless het volgende:

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Klopt, maar dat zegt ook niemand.

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Op dinsdag 24 mei 2022 19:23 schreef AchJa het volgende:
Ukraine Is in Worse Shape than You Think

It has been said that, given how massively Ukrainian troops were believed be outmatched early in Russia’s invasion, not losing the war is itself a form of victory for Ukraine. The difference between expectations and the surprising resilience of Ukraine’s military makes it easy to misinterpret the current situation in Ukraine’s favor. But not winning is still not winning. Ukraine is in far worse shape than commonly believed and needs, and will continue to need, a staggering amount of aid and support to actually win.

We love an underdog. We love a plucky little guy who beats the odds. It fuels hope for our ordinary selves and allows us to feel we are on the morally superior side. This is why Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has appealed so successfully to the world. His defiance against the odds gave us someone to root for against a bully. While cheering on the scrappy, outmatched Ukrainians, we could also assuage some of our shame at leaving them—to whom we had made promises of protection, “security guarantees”—to die alone in the snow and the mud.

Unfortunately, Zelensky’s leadership and the outpouring of international military and humanitarian assistance it has elicited have not prevented a shocking level of destruction to Ukraine’s cities, economy, and society. The fact that Kyiv has not fallen and Russian troops have retreated to the east masks that Ukraine is in worse shape than portrayed in the media.

It is worth remembering that Ukraine has been fighting a Russian invasion since 2014. Between 2014 and February 2022, almost 10,000 were killed in the simmering war in the Donbas, but little or no military progress was made. Now, Ukraine is fighting with that same army in an expanded theater against a bigger opposing force. It is a testament to the pure valiance of its troops that Ukraine has managed since February 24 not only to hold its line but force the Russians into a retreat from Kyiv, Kharkiv, Chernigiv, and surrounding areas.

Nonetheless, Russia now controls significantly more Ukrainian territory than before February 24. Putin’s army holds Kherson, whatever is left of Mariupol, all the intervening territory, and now not only Luhansk and Donetsk but the entire Donbas Oblast. For example, whereas Ukrainian authorities controlled approximately 60% of Luhansk before the recent Russian invasion, now Russian forces control over 80% of the region. They also have about 70% of Zaporizhye region. Cumulatively, this accounts for an increase of Russian occupied territory from approximately 7%, including Crimea, before February more than double that now. Viewed this way, not losing looks a lot more like losing than winning.

Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense is not releasing combat casualty numbers to maintain morale, but experts believe it has lost at least 25,000 troops — up to 11,000 deaths and 18,000 wounded —since the February 24 invasion. Over two and a half months into the war, Ukraine’s losses are at least 10% of their now undoubtedly exhausted army of under 250,000. This is, however, many, many fewer than Russia’s casualties, believed to be over 35,000, and buttressed by an astonishing loss of weapons and equipment, such as tanks and warships.

Ukraine’s relative success is due in part to the weapons at least 31 western governments have been donating. The U.K. has sent anti-tank, anti-air, and anti-ship missiles, air defense systems, and other weapons; Slovakia the S-300 air defense system; the U.S. drones, howitzers, missiles, and anti-armor systems; and this is just a sampling. These weapons have allowed Ukraine to maximize its home field advantage, leverage its troops’ greater resolve, and exploit Russia’s military weaknesses and apparent lack of adequate planning and preparation. Without these donations, Kyiv may well have fallen by now.

While Ukraine is flush with weapons and other military supplies and equipment, however, Ministry of Defense officials and volunteer fighters are both quietly admitting that they lack the capacity to absorb so much aid. Much of the equipment and weaponry requires new training to be used. Even when that is available it takes time. Similarly, the influx of 16,000 or more foreign volunteer fighters would seem like a decisive boon, but in fact almost none of them had any military experience or training. They proved little more than extra mouths to feed in most cases, according to Ministry of Defense staff and some of the volunteer foreign special forces soldiers on the ground.

Economically, Ukraine is surviving, but only that. The sanctions on Russia that are expected to cause a less than 7% contraction in GDP compare rather unfavorably to the 45-50% GDP collapse Ukraine is facing. At least 25% of businesses are closed, although the number that have completely stopped has fallen from 32% in March to 17% in May. But a Black Sea blockade of Ukraine’s ports—Mariupol, Odesa, Kherson, and others—by Russia’s navy is preventing both the import of fuels to power the agricultural sector, and also the export of grain and other Ukrainian products. The inability to export is costing Ukraine’s economy $170 million per day. Meanwhile, Russia is targeting Ukrainian fuel storages, grain silos, and agricultural equipment warehouses, damaging already tattered supply chains. The power sector is facing default because so few Ukrainian citizens and companies are able to pay their electricity bills.

Not only is May a critical agricultural month, but it is when Naftogaz usually starts buying natural gas to store it for the cold Ukrainian winter. The state-owned energy giant was already in bad shape before the invasion, with the CEO asking the Ukrainian government for a $4.6 billion bailout in September 2021. Now, with very tight gas markets and no funds, it is unclear how the country can prepare for winter, when temperatures can fall to below 20 Fahrenheit. Adding to the prospect of a tragic 2022-2023 winter, most of Ukraine’s coal mines are in the Donbas, where Russia’s offensive continues.

The White House is reportedly considering forgiving Ukrainian sovereign debt, which would undoubtedly help Bankova (the Ukrainian White House equivalent). So too will, among other efforts, the ¤15 billion in debt securities the European Commission plans to issue to cover Ukraine’s next few months. However, this will not coax back the over six million mostly women and children who have fled Ukraine. If men were allowed to leave, the numbers would almost certainly be double.

Recent reports that 25,000-30,000 are returning daily to Ukraine from abroad are encouraging, but Ukraine faced a brain drain problem before the invasion. The poorest country in Europe, many citizens were already trying to leave. Before the war, Ukrainians were the third largest immigrant population in the E.U., behind only Morocco and Turkey. Now, the International Labor Agency estimates that 4.8 million jobs have been lost in Ukraine, which will rise to seven million if the war continues. And after many months of war, children will have settled in new schools abroad, mothers will be integrating in their new worlds, and both will be waiting for their husbands and fathers to join them. Some will return to Ukraine, of course, but many will prioritize their family’s comfort and children’s opportunities over the calls of patriotism.

Most troublingly, many Ukrainians still in their country have begun to wonder how it will rebuild itself. The war has torn the fabric of society. One mother in Poltava said she no longer trusts the neighbors she has lived next to for 40 years, people she considered to be family before the invasion. A young volunteer, formerly a civil society activist, described hunting for saboteurs, and how he has begun to see Russian sympathizers everywhere. Native Ukrainian speakers of Russian, who constitute at least a third of the population, are uncomfortable or even scared to use their mother tongue. Trust has been shattered, even while nationalism has been motivated. No matter how quickly Russia is beaten back, rebuilding communities will be a challenge.

The U.S. government decided in May to symbolically move some of its diplomatic staff back into Kyiv, partially reversing its rapid, defeatist withdrawal when it assumed Kyiv would fall within days. President Biden has even, finally, nominated a U.S. ambassador to Ukraine after more than a three-year leadership gap. The message this and E.U. gestures send is important. But despite our desire to see in outmatched Ukraine’s survival a tale of David beating Goliath, and to cheer ourselves for donating the slingshot, the country is seriously, dangerously weakened.

Ukraine needs more than symbols, and more than weapons. Not losing is not winning, and it will take a long and deep commitment by the western world to help Ukraine both win and then heal.

Time

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Op dinsdag 24 mei 2022 21:26 schreef Lospedrosa het volgende:

Het staat er niet heel rooskleurig voor, voor Oekraïne,

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maar heropbouw doen we samen.

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Op dinsdag 24 mei 2022 21:23 schreef ExTec het volgende:

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Blijkbaar wel

Sinds het daar dus bergafwaarts gaat, zijn er dus tarief muren opgegooid, vertrekken westerse bedrijven....

Dus die relatie is niet meer goed, het is gewoon een relatie.

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Op dinsdag 24 mei 2022 21:30 schreef Papierversnipperaar het volgende:

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Dus Rusland wint?
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Dan moet Rusland alles herbouwen.

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Op dinsdag 24 mei 2022 19:23 schreef AchJa het volgende:
Ukraine Is in Worse Shape than You Think

It has been said that, given how massively Ukrainian troops were believed be outmatched early in Russia’s invasion, not losing the war is itself a form of victory for Ukraine. The difference between expectations and the surprising resilience of Ukraine’s military makes it easy to misinterpret the current situation in Ukraine’s favor. But not winning is still not winning. Ukraine is in far worse shape than commonly believed and needs, and will continue to need, a staggering amount of aid and support to actually win.

We love an underdog. We love a plucky little guy who beats the odds. It fuels hope for our ordinary selves and allows us to feel we are on the morally superior side. This is why Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has appealed so successfully to the world. His defiance against the odds gave us someone to root for against a bully. While cheering on the scrappy, outmatched Ukrainians, we could also assuage some of our shame at leaving them—to whom we had made promises of protection, “security guarantees”—to die alone in the snow and the mud.

Unfortunately, Zelensky’s leadership and the outpouring of international military and humanitarian assistance it has elicited have not prevented a shocking level of destruction to Ukraine’s cities, economy, and society. The fact that Kyiv has not fallen and Russian troops have retreated to the east masks that Ukraine is in worse shape than portrayed in the media.

It is worth remembering that Ukraine has been fighting a Russian invasion since 2014. Between 2014 and February 2022, almost 10,000 were killed in the simmering war in the Donbas, but little or no military progress was made. Now, Ukraine is fighting with that same army in an expanded theater against a bigger opposing force. It is a testament to the pure valiance of its troops that Ukraine has managed since February 24 not only to hold its line but force the Russians into a retreat from Kyiv, Kharkiv, Chernigiv, and surrounding areas.

Nonetheless, Russia now controls significantly more Ukrainian territory than before February 24. Putin’s army holds Kherson, whatever is left of Mariupol, all the intervening territory, and now not only Luhansk and Donetsk but the entire Donbas Oblast. For example, whereas Ukrainian authorities controlled approximately 60% of Luhansk before the recent Russian invasion, now Russian forces control over 80% of the region. They also have about 70% of Zaporizhye region. Cumulatively, this accounts for an increase of Russian occupied territory from approximately 7%, including Crimea, before February more than double that now. Viewed this way, not losing looks a lot more like losing than winning.

Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense is not releasing combat casualty numbers to maintain morale, but experts believe it has lost at least 25,000 troops — up to 11,000 deaths and 18,000 wounded —since the February 24 invasion. Over two and a half months into the war, Ukraine’s losses are at least 10% of their now undoubtedly exhausted army of under 250,000. This is, however, many, many fewer than Russia’s casualties, believed to be over 35,000, and buttressed by an astonishing loss of weapons and equipment, such as tanks and warships.

Ukraine’s relative success is due in part to the weapons at least 31 western governments have been donating. The U.K. has sent anti-tank, anti-air, and anti-ship missiles, air defense systems, and other weapons; Slovakia the S-300 air defense system; the U.S. drones, howitzers, missiles, and anti-armor systems; and this is just a sampling. These weapons have allowed Ukraine to maximize its home field advantage, leverage its troops’ greater resolve, and exploit Russia’s military weaknesses and apparent lack of adequate planning and preparation. Without these donations, Kyiv may well have fallen by now.

While Ukraine is flush with weapons and other military supplies and equipment, however, Ministry of Defense officials and volunteer fighters are both quietly admitting that they lack the capacity to absorb so much aid. Much of the equipment and weaponry requires new training to be used. Even when that is available it takes time. Similarly, the influx of 16,000 or more foreign volunteer fighters would seem like a decisive boon, but in fact almost none of them had any military experience or training. They proved little more than extra mouths to feed in most cases, according to Ministry of Defense staff and some of the volunteer foreign special forces soldiers on the ground.

Economically, Ukraine is surviving, but only that. The sanctions on Russia that are expected to cause a less than 7% contraction in GDP compare rather unfavorably to the 45-50% GDP collapse Ukraine is facing. At least 25% of businesses are closed, although the number that have completely stopped has fallen from 32% in March to 17% in May. But a Black Sea blockade of Ukraine’s ports—Mariupol, Odesa, Kherson, and others—by Russia’s navy is preventing both the import of fuels to power the agricultural sector, and also the export of grain and other Ukrainian products. The inability to export is costing Ukraine’s economy $170 million per day. Meanwhile, Russia is targeting Ukrainian fuel storages, grain silos, and agricultural equipment warehouses, damaging already tattered supply chains. The power sector is facing default because so few Ukrainian citizens and companies are able to pay their electricity bills.

Not only is May a critical agricultural month, but it is when Naftogaz usually starts buying natural gas to store it for the cold Ukrainian winter. The state-owned energy giant was already in bad shape before the invasion, with the CEO asking the Ukrainian government for a $4.6 billion bailout in September 2021. Now, with very tight gas markets and no funds, it is unclear how the country can prepare for winter, when temperatures can fall to below 20 Fahrenheit. Adding to the prospect of a tragic 2022-2023 winter, most of Ukraine’s coal mines are in the Donbas, where Russia’s offensive continues.

The White House is reportedly considering forgiving Ukrainian sovereign debt, which would undoubtedly help Bankova (the Ukrainian White House equivalent). So too will, among other efforts, the ¤15 billion in debt securities the European Commission plans to issue to cover Ukraine’s next few months. However, this will not coax back the over six million mostly women and children who have fled Ukraine. If men were allowed to leave, the numbers would almost certainly be double.

Recent reports that 25,000-30,000 are returning daily to Ukraine from abroad are encouraging, but Ukraine faced a brain drain problem before the invasion. The poorest country in Europe, many citizens were already trying to leave. Before the war, Ukrainians were the third largest immigrant population in the E.U., behind only Morocco and Turkey. Now, the International Labor Agency estimates that 4.8 million jobs have been lost in Ukraine, which will rise to seven million if the war continues. And after many months of war, children will have settled in new schools abroad, mothers will be integrating in their new worlds, and both will be waiting for their husbands and fathers to join them. Some will return to Ukraine, of course, but many will prioritize their family’s comfort and children’s opportunities over the calls of patriotism.

Most troublingly, many Ukrainians still in their country have begun to wonder how it will rebuild itself. The war has torn the fabric of society. One mother in Poltava said she no longer trusts the neighbors she has lived next to for 40 years, people she considered to be family before the invasion. A young volunteer, formerly a civil society activist, described hunting for saboteurs, and how he has begun to see Russian sympathizers everywhere. Native Ukrainian speakers of Russian, who constitute at least a third of the population, are uncomfortable or even scared to use their mother tongue. Trust has been shattered, even while nationalism has been motivated. No matter how quickly Russia is beaten back, rebuilding communities will be a challenge.

The U.S. government decided in May to symbolically move some of its diplomatic staff back into Kyiv, partially reversing its rapid, defeatist withdrawal when it assumed Kyiv would fall within days. President Biden has even, finally, nominated a U.S. ambassador to Ukraine after more than a three-year leadership gap. The message this and E.U. gestures send is important. But despite our desire to see in outmatched Ukraine’s survival a tale of David beating Goliath, and to cheer ourselves for donating the slingshot, the country is seriously, dangerously weakened.

Ukraine needs more than symbols, and more than weapons. Not losing is not winning, and it will take a long and deep commitment by the western world to help Ukraine both win and then heal.

Time

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Op dinsdag 24 mei 2022 21:25 schreef Papierversnipperaar het volgende:

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Jazeker.

Als ik zeg dat Amerika een vrij land is, insinueer ik daarmee dat het in andere landen minder vrij is.

Wat jij doet is dus een heel simpel truukje.

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Op dinsdag 24 mei 2022 21:30 schreef Repentless het volgende:

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Tariefmuren hebben met handel te maken. Voornamelijk door Trump geïnitieerd, om meer eigen industrie en productie naar de VS terug te halen. Heeft met de politieke situatie in het land niet zoveel te maken.

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Maar wat heeft Kissinger dan precies verkeerd gedaan in het normaliseren van de relatie met China? Had hij het land moeten veranderen of iets dergelijks?

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Op dinsdag 24 mei 2022 20:46 schreef ExTec het volgende:

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Moeilijk te zeggen.

Maar moeten we daarom het resultaat maar goed noemen ofzo?

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Op dinsdag 24 mei 2022 20:08 schreef Cherni het volgende:

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Als Zelensky nu eens wat minder aan zijn PR denkt en meer aan zijn troepen en zijn legerleiding serieus neemt zijn er kansen. Maar schijnbaar mogen de troepen zich niet terugtrekken en dreigen ze steeds te worden ingesloten dit terwijl de legerleiding net als in Mariupol vraagt om zich deels terug te trekken om verliezen te beperken en zich te kunnen hergroeperen maken ze een kans.

Het spijt me, maar Zelensky begint mij te irriteren en offert zijn troepen op. Schijnt niet te luisteren naar de legerleiding.

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Op dinsdag 24 mei 2022 21:26 schreef ExTec het volgende:

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Het lijkt me het een of het ander?

Of we stellen wel degelijk eisen aan hoe je je gedraagt, of we doen dat totaal niet, in welk geval we de egoïstische dictator z'n klote-zin geven?

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Op dinsdag 24 mei 2022 21:35 schreef RamboDirk het volgende:

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Best wel heel veel open deuren over een land dat momenteel verwoest wordt.

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Op dinsdag 24 mei 2022 21:36 schreef Repentless het volgende:

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Wat heeft dit nou in hemelsnaam te maken met waar het over ging? Het ging erom dat ExTec vond dat Kissinger het qua normaliseren van de relatie met China niet goed heeft gedaan. Ik geef aan dat het normaliseren van een relatie niet betekent dat je daarmee het politieke systeem van een ander land verandert naar jouw model en dat het alleen succesvol is wanneer dat land zich daarnaar schikt.

Je bewerkstelligt gewoon een goede verstandhouding, ondanks je verschillen in opvattingen.

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Op dinsdag 24 mei 2022 21:33 schreef Lospedrosa het volgende:

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De kans is wel groot dat Rusland wint maar dat gaat de EU indirect teveel kosten. Dat wordt een grootmacht als energie en graan leverancier. Dus beter een regimechange in Kiev naar EU luitjes.
Laat Frans Timmermans met Rob Jetten het bestuur overnemen en Oekraïne op de warmtepomp zetten.

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Op dinsdag 24 mei 2022 21:47 schreef mcmlxiv het volgende:

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De aanwas van troepen en materieel lijkt voor Oekraïne eenvoudiger dan voor Rusland. Dat deze oorlog veel slachtoffers, ook Oekraïnse slachtoffers kost is vanaf dag 1 duidelijk. Een uitkomst met Krim en Donbass nog steeds in Russisch bezit of sferen is ook zeker niet ondenkbaar.

Maar voorlopig lijkt Oekraïne nog niets weg te geven en dat is volkomen begrijpelijk. Het Russische leger zoveel mogelijk pijn doen is een volkomen logisch doel op zich. Het helpt een herhaling in de toekomst uitstellen. Dat is namelijk een onoplosbaar probleem in deze situatie, elk verdrag met Rusland is net zo waardevol als volgescheten pleepapier. Geldig tot de volgende uitvlucht om opnieuw te beginnen. Met onbetrouwbare varkens kun je namelijk geen echte afspraken maken.

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Op dinsdag 24 mei 2022 21:47 schreef mcmlxiv het volgende:

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De aanwas van troepen en materieel lijkt voor Oekraïne eenvoudiger dan voor Rusland.

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Op dinsdag 24 mei 2022 21:46 schreef Repentless het volgende:

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Dit is dus geen gelijkwaardige relatie. Hier zit mijns inziens ook een beetje het probleem wat zorgt voor antipathie jegens het westen in de rest van de wereld. Een relatie aangaan is niet dat er een bovenliggende partij is die de standaarden bepaalt waar de ander aan moet voldoen om waardig genoeg te zijn. Je bepaalt of je in harmonie met elkaar kunt leven en handel kunt drijven, ondanks je verschil in opvattingen.

Stel dat China de absolute wereldmacht wordt en gaat eisen dat we allemaal communistisch worden omdat zij vinden dat dat het beste model is voor iedereen, dat wil je dan toch ook niet? Ik niet althans.

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Op dinsdag 24 mei 2022 21:47 schreef Papierversnipperaar het volgende:

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Maar de verstandhouding was nooit echt goed. Dus op beide punten was het resultaat negatief.

Jij insinueert dat het anders is.

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Op dinsdag 24 mei 2022 21:53 schreef Lospedrosa het volgende:

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Dat zeg jij steeds maar dat is helemaal niet zo.
Behalve het buitenlandse spul, kan Rusland veel beter doorleveren.