Onrust in Belarus na gemanipuleerde verkiezingen, extreme repressie #6

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Op vrijdag 11 september 2020 14:36 schreef luxerobots het volgende:

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Wat zijn die regionale belangen van Litouwen dan? Vergeet niet dat Litouwen een klein land is met 2,8 miljoen inwoners.

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Op vrijdag 11 september 2020 15:06 schreef luxerobots het volgende:

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Litouwen is niet alleen NAVO-lid maar ook EU-lid. Met de euro als munt.

Die hoeven echt niet bang te zijn voor hun veiligheid wat betreft Rusland.

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En Loekasjenko gaf die stroom niet?

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Volgens mij ligt het gewoon veel principi�ler. Litouwers weten nog wat het is om niet vrij te zijn en zijn daarom voor vrijheid en vrije verkiezingen.

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Daarbij zijn ze door de gemeenschappelijke geschiedenis erg verbonden met Wit-Rusland.

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Op vrijdag 11 september 2020 15:20 schreef luxerobots het volgende:

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Welles! Goed argument.

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Wit-Russen krijgen goedkope stroom en de Russen gaan dat gebruiken tegen de Litouwers?

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Minsk to export nuclear energy to other markets due to Baltic boycott

2020.09.09 11:09

Belarus will export electricity to foreign markets after the launch of Astravyets nuclear power plant, the country’s Deputy Energy Minister Mikhail Mikhadyuk said last week. The statement came after the Baltic states agreed to block Belarusian nuclear imports.

Mikhadyuk said that various options for exporting Astravyets electricity were now being considred, Belarusian state news agency BelTA reported on September 3.

“I am confident that with the introduction of the nuclear power plant, the Belarusian electricity will become even more competitive in foreign markets,” he said.

But as the Baltic states, Poland, and Ukraine have previously said they will not buy electricity produced at Astravyets, the only option remains Russia – which is also building and financing the plant.

On September 3, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said that Russia and Belarus will cooperate in realising the electricity produced at Astravyets NPP.

“The question of electricity supply from the nuclear facility was discussed at the meeting between Russian and Belarusian prime ministers. Relevant institutions have been obliged to resolve the questions of both countries’ electricity systems operations,” Novak said.

The construction of the Astravyets NPP is funded by a loan from the Kremlin and is being constructed by Russia’s state atomic agency Rosatom.

Baltic boycott

Lithuania has long advocated for a total ban of Astravyets electricity because it deems the nuclear facility, located some 30 kilometres from Vilnius, to be unsafe.

On September 1, Lithuanian, Estonian, and Latvian energy ministers reached an agreement to cease power trade with Belarus after the Astravyets plant is launched.

According to the Lithuanian Energy Minister �ygimantas Vaičiūnas, Belarus could lose “hundreds of millions of euros” because of the electricity ban from the neighbouring countries.

However, Latvia said it will continue energy trade with Russia until the Baltic states desychronise their power grids from the BRELL network, which includes the Baltic states, Belarus and Russia, and connects to the European system by 2025.

Critics have previously said this leaves a technical possibility for electricity from Astravyets to enter the common Baltic states' market via Russia.

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If Russia swallows Belarus, what would happen to Lithuania?

Andrius Balčiūnas, LRT.lt

2020.09.10 17:30

Belarus’ Alexander Lukashenko refused to have Russian military bases in the country. But despite past differences, the turmoil following the August 9 presidential election is pushing Minsk closer to Moscow. What does it mean for Lithuania’s security?

Back in the 1990s, Russia and Belarus agreed to form a union state. Last year, Russian President Vladimir Putin reminded Lukashenko about the deal, but the two leaders failed to agree on the exact terms.

“[Russia] could now quickly complete the [merger] that it could not finish 20 years ago. It is very worrying,” Lithuanian Foreign Minister Linas Linkevičius said. According to him, the integration of the two countries “could hardly be stopped” given the current situation.

Already occupied?

When protests engulfed Belarus, Lukashenko accused foreign powers of meddling in his country’s affairs. He announced the highest military readiness in response to the alleged NATO movement near the Belarusian border.

Putin also promised to send military units to Belarus to ensure security and help suppress the peaceful protests. At the same time, Russian air forces and navy conducted exercises in Russia’s Baltic exclave of Kaliningrad wedged between Lithuania and Poland, demonstrating that they would be ready to react to the situation in Belarus if necessary.

Based on the strategies tested during the joint Russian-Belarusian military exercises Zapad, the Belarusian army would be subordinate to the leadership of the Russian Western Military District in the event of a conflict.

Gustav Gressel, an analyst from the European Council on Foreign Relations, who previously served in the Austrian military and the country’s Defence Ministry, said that such unexpected exercises demonstrated that Belarus had already surrendered its army and sovereignty to Russia.

But Belarusian military commanders might not be as loyal to the Kremlin as Moscow would expect. In recent years, Lukashenko has conducted reforms in the security and military structures replacing, staff with his loyalists.

So far, Lukashenko has resisted the Kremlin's pressure to make Belarus an integral part of the Russian Western Military District and set up a permanent military base in the country. Despite fears raised by countries like Lithuania, the Russian army also did not stay in Belarus after Zapad.

“This will end now. The Belarusian Army was quite integrated with the Russian one in terms of equipment, logistics, training, and education. During wartime, it had to be subordinated to the Russian Army Western Military District,” Gressel said.

He added that Russia would exploit the current situation to increase control over the Belarusian army during peacetime as well.

“There will be Russian ground forces deployed in Belarus. Russia may also increase its C4ISR [surveillance and reconnaissance] installations in Belarus to spy on NATO from there,” Gressel explained.

But other experts were more cautious in their evaluation of possible Russian manoeuvres.

“Putin’s actions are hard to predict. He always surprises us. […] He might come up with a new surprise other than an obvious Belarusian integration into Russia,” said Elisabeth Braw, director of the Modern Deterrence project at the UK's Royal United Services Institute (RUSI).

No warning

One of the greatest Lithuanian security challenges is the so-called Suwalki gap, a 100-kilometre-wide strip separating Belarus and Russia’s Kaliningrad, where Russia has deployed Iskander missiles that can carry nuclear warheads.

In the event of a military conflict, Russia could occupy the Suwalki corridor and cut off Lithuania, along with Latvia and Estonia, from the rest of NATO.

According to Gressel, for some time, Lukashenko has “tried to steer clear of being a springboard for offensive Russian operations”. Unlike Russia, Belarus also complied with the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) Vienna Document and Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE).

Both treaties are aimed at preventing escalation and introducing transparency and monitoring measures. The latter also limits military equipment and troop build-up in Europe.

“At least in the military sphere, this gave NATO some knowledge on what was going on in Belarus. If Russia had evil intentions, we would have had some pre-warning time,” Gressel said.

He added that now, the “situation would unfold very quickly” if Russian troops were deployed in Belarus, because there would no longer be any warning signs.

New military bases in Lithuania?

Russia and Belarus are members of the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO), an intergovernmental military alliance comprising six post-Soviet states. The importance of the alliance is hard to evaluate. In mid-July, Russia reacted vaguely to clashes between CSTO member-state Armenia and its neighbour Azerbaijan.

But NATO leaders often reiterate their commitment to collective defence clauses. According to Gressel, NATO would also have to react, if Russia took over Belarus.

“It will have to abandon the NATO–Russia founding act and its restraints to deploy only limited forces to the border,” the expert said.

“The ‘deterring from a distance’ had advantages. It was cheaper, easier to explain to reluctant Western European audiences, and more flexible if you wanted to use the troops elsewhere. […] But defending the Baltics is a race against the clock. It is not so much about the overall size of forces, but about the operational tempo,” Gressel added.

In his words, losing Belarus could prolong the reaction time of NATO by four days.

Ukraine would also be negatively affected if Russia formed a union state with Belarus. Ukraine’s border with de facto Russia would become longer, which would complicate the war in Donbas and would move the capital Kyiv closer to a hostile state.

“In my view, NATO should consult about this, and threaten Russia with consequences if it proceeds the way it does. The Kremlin’s mind is more militarised than ours, so tanks are a far better deterrent than sanctions,” Gressel said.

According to him, the West must make Russia pay if it occupies Belarus by introducing sanctions and cutting energy imports.

Braw, however, said that NATO must follow international treaties even if Moscow breaches, them because the West is subject to a different political culture.

“I think [NATO] should maintain its strategy […]. A permanent deployment in the Baltics or Poland would not be favourable to the bloc because it would give Russia permission to say that NATO does not comply with its legal obligations,” she said.

Will Lukashenko leave?

The Belarusian protesters are now focused on fighting for free and democratic elections, not discussing the geopolitical future of the country.

According to Braw, the Kremlin may allow elections, as it wouldn’t want to occupy a country that strives for democratic changes. The Soviet occupation of the Baltic states showed that controlling a hostile territory was difficult and costly.

Gressel added that a Russian military action against Belarus was also less likely due to its experience in Ukraine. There, Moscow’s intervention strengthened the anti-Russian sentiment and pushed the country closer to the Euro-Atlantic integration.

According to Gressel, even if Lukashenko were replaced by a new leader, he or she would be bound by the CSTO and Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) agreements.

“But [the new leader] could reinstate Lukashenko’s previously held red lines on independence and sovereignty. […] And then very carefully work from there to open the country,” Gressel said.

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Belsat: Er bevind zich een bewoner van Vitebsk en zijn vader op het territorium van de Zweedse ambassade. Ze vragen politiek asiel.

Op het territorium van de Zweedse ambassade in Minsk, dat nu omringd wordt door wethandhavers, bevind zich de bewoner van Vitebsk Vladislav Kuznechik en zijn vader Vitalij Kuznechik, meldde de tv-zender "Belsat" op hun telegram kanaal.

Volgens de woorden van Kuznechik, werden zij aangehouden op het protest van 6 september in Vitebsk en werd er in hun ogen traangas gespoten en werden ze geslagen met knuppels. Het lukte de zoon om zijn vader te bevrijden, maar uit angst voor vervolging verstopten de Kuznechik'en zich vier dagen. Vladislav Kuznechik nam een videoboodschap op, terwijl hij zich bevond op het territorium van de Zweedse ambassade met zijn vader, waarbij hij verklaarde dat hun familieleden en kinderen gevolgd werden.

Vandaag probeerden ze de ambassade van Zweden in Minsk binnen te komen om asiel te vragen. Omdat ze niet naar binnen werden gelaten, zijn ze over het hek gesprongen naar het territorium van de diplomatieke vertegenwoordiging.

Op dit moment, zoals Vladislav Kuznechik zei, omringen wethandhavers de ambassade en wachten ze op uitlevering van de voortvluchtigen. Vitalij Kuznechik vertelde, dat de Zweedse diplomaten proberen om contact te leggen met hun leiding in Stokholm voor het oplossen van de situatie.

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Op een EU-summit zal een visavrij regime voor Belarussen worden voorgesteld.

De visegrad groep zal op een komend buitengewoon EU-summit een ondersteuningspaket voor het Belarussische bevolking voorstellen. Daar vertelde vrijdag de Poolse premier Mateuz Morawiecki over op een persconferentie inzake de resultaten van de ontmoeting van de vier regeringshoofden van de groep in Lublin.

"Wij willen het Belarussische volk een project voor de economische samenwerking voorstellen", zei hij, terwijl hij verduidelijkte, dat het onder andere gaat over energieveiligheid, samenwerking in de informatie- en infrastructuur sectoren.

"Wij zouden visumvrij reisen voor willen stellen aan Belarussische staatsburgers", klinkt het in een citaat van Morawiecki dat de persdienst van de Poolse regering aanhaalt.

"Dit pakket zouden wij voor willen stellen tijdens het komende EU-summit", verduidelijkte hij.

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Op vrijdag 11 september 2020 22:21 schreef luxerobots het volgende:

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