Hurricane Season 2016 #1: Orkanen wereldwijd

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Op zondag 3 januari 2016 17:14 schreef aloa het volgende:
Does a Weakening El Niño Mean a More Dangerous 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season?

http://www.weather.com/st(...)after-strong-el-nino

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Unprecedented: Simultaneous January Named Storms in the Atlantic and Central Pacific

As we ring in the New Year with record to near-record warm temperatures over much of Earth's oceans, we are confronted with something that would have been unimaginable a few decades ago: simultaneous January named storms in both the Atlantic and Central Pacific. The earliest named storm on record in the Central Pacific, Hurricane Pali, formed on January 7, and now the Atlantic has joined the early-season hurricane party, with Subtropical Storm Alex spinning up into history with 50 mph winds in the waters about 785 miles south-southwest of the Azores Islands. The average date of the first named storm in the Atlantic is July 9; the Central Pacific also typically sees its first named storm in July. Alex could retain its subtropical characteristics till as late as Friday, when it will be shooting northward toward Greenland en route to being absorbed in a high-latitude storm. Meanwhile, Pali is predicted to remain a tropical cyclone for at least the next five days, perhaps coming within 2° latitude of the equator--something only two other tropical cyclones in world history have been observed to do--as the storm arcs toward the southwest and eventually back northwest, potentially becoming a typhoon when it crosses the Date Line.

A January named storm in the Atlantic--how rare?
Alex is just the fourth Atlantic named storm to form in January since record keeping began in 1851. The others:

An unnamed 1938 hurricane became a tropical storm on January 3 well east of the Lesser Antilles Islands and lasted until January 6.

Subtropical Storm One of January 18 – 23, 1978 gained subtropical depression status over waters of about 75 °F (24 °C) about 1,700 miles east-northeast of Puerto Rico.

Tropical Storm One of 1951 was a tropical storm from January 4 - 9 in the waters a few hundred miles northeast of Puerto Rico. This was likely really a subtropical storm.

Two other named storms that formed in late December managed to last into January--Tropical Storm Zeta, which formed on December 30, 2005 and survived until January 7, 2006, west of the Cape Verde Islands, and Hurricane Alice, which formed on December 30, 1954, and tracked west-southwest into the Caribbean, where it dissipated on January 7, 1955.

Alex's genesis
Alex can trace its genesis to an area of low pressure that formed off the Southeast U.S. coast on January 7. Between January 8 and 12, pre-Alex tracked generally eastwards over ocean waters that were 22 - 25°C (72 - 77°F); these temperatures were near-record warm for this time of year (about 2 - 4°F above average). These temperatures were just high enough so that Alex was able to gradually gain a warm core and become a subtropical storm. It is unlikely that Alex would have formed if these waters had been close to normal temperatures for this time of year. The unusually warm waters for Alex were due, in part, to the high levels of global warming that brought Earth its warmest year on record in 2015. Global warming made Alex's formation much more likely to occur, and the same can be said for the formation of Hurricane Pali in the Central Pacific. To get both of these storms simultaneously in January is something that would have had a vanishingly small probability more than 30 years ago, before global warming really began to ramp up.

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Alex Becomes the Atlantic’s First January Hurricane Since 1955

History spun up over the far reaches of the Northeast Atlantic on Thursday, as Subtropical Storm Alex carved out a distinct eye within a core of intense thunderstorms, making it Hurricane Alex. The 10 am EST advisory from the National Hurricane Center put Alex’s sustained winds at 85 mph. Alex was located about 500 miles south of Faial Island in the Azores, moving north-northeast at 20 mph. A hurricane warning is in effect for the islands of Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, and Terceira in the central Azores. Given the strong steering currents driving Alex, there is high confidence that at least some of the central Azores will experience tropical storm or hurricane-force wind, heavy rain, and high surf. To get a hurricane making landfall in the Azores any time of year is quite unusual (about once per 10-20 years); to get a landfall in January would be truly remarkable.

In records going back to 1851, only two hurricanes are known to have prowled the Atlantic during the month of January: an unnamed tropical storm that became Hurricane One on January 4, 1938, and Hurricane Alice, which maintained hurricane strength from December 31, 1954, to January 4, 1955. Alice topped out at 80 mph, so Alex is officially the strongest January hurricane on record in the Atlantic. Much like Alice, another tropical cyclone--Tropical Storm Zeta of 2005/06--formed in December and extended into January, and a tropical storm was recorded in early January 1951. There was also a subtropical storm in January 1978.

A chilly hurricane
Designated a subtropical storm on Wednesday, Alex took on a surprisingly healthy structure overnight, with a symmetric core of showers and thunderstorms around its clear-cut eye. Sea-surface temperatures beneath Alex are only around 20-22°C (68-72°F). Although these are up to 1°C above average for this time of year, they are far cooler than usually required for tropical cyclone development. However, upper-level temperatures near Alex are unusually cold for the latitude, which means that instability--driven by the contrast between warm, moist lower levels and cold, drier upper levels--is higher than it would otherwise be. That instability allowed showers and thunderstorms to blossom and consolidate, strengthening the warm core that makes Alex a hurricane as opposed to an extratropical or subtropical storm.

Alex’s unusual life as a January hurricane will be a short one. The system is already accelerating northward ahead of a strong upper-level trough, and by late Friday it should be a powerful post-tropical low racing toward Greenland. Even though Alex will become absorbed in the higher-latitude storm system, its warm, moist air may assist in pushing temperatures over parts of Greenland more than 35°F above average this weekend into early next week.

twitter:

jnmet twitterde op dinsdag 26-01-2016 om 08:25:21 Tropical low forming SE of Bali; watch for TC over Timor Sea late this week. Possible impacts on NW #Australia. https://t.co/M0h7hA59Ij reageer retweet

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Op zondag 7 februari 2016 12:51 schreef the_butler het volgende:
..het was dus loos alarm.... wel apart dat er dit seizoen dus geen enkele cycloon zich heeft gevormd aan de west zijde van de Indische oceaan..... El Ninio? Het zeewater is in ieder geval warm zat.

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Op woensdag 10 februari 2016 06:18 schreef the_butler het volgende:

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kijk eens naar mijn post voor Aloa Dat systeem verdampte alleen compleet in de daarop volgende dagen, met inderdaad een piepklein lage druk gebied naast Madagaskar. Vandaar mijn commentaar dat er maar niks gebeurt... tot nu dan, JTWC geeft een hoge kans dat er binnen 24 uur een cycloon gevormd kan zijn...

twitter:

SteveBowenWx twitterde op vrijdag 19-02-2016 om 15:02:14 Costliest TC for #Fiji was 1993's Kina at $182M (2016 USD). Current forecast #Winston may challenge that number. https://t.co/3SyfVuOn42 reageer retweet

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Winston's 185 mph Winds in Fiji: Southern Hemisphere's Strongest Storm on Record

The strongest storm in recorded history for the Southern Hemisphere--mighty Category 5 Tropical Cyclone Winston--smashed through the islands of Fiji Friday night and Saturday morning with top sustained winds estimated at 185 mph. These winds vaulted Winston into a three-way tie as the second strongest landfalling tropical cyclone in world recorded history.

Winston began its march at Category 5 strength through the Fiji Islands beginning at 18 UTC (1 pm EST) Friday. At that time, Winston had 165 mph winds as it moved westwards over the small Fiji island of Vanua Balavu (population 1,200). The island's airport was in the western eyewall of Winston, and at 18 UTC measured 10-minute average winds of 106 mph (roughly equivalent to 120 mph winds using the U.S. 1-minute averaging time.) Winston continued to intensify, then crashed ashore on the Fiji island of Koro (population 4,500) at peak strength--sustained winds of 185 mph--near 02 UTC Saturday (9 pm EST Friday.)

This is the second strongest landfall by any tropical cyclone, globally, in recorded history. Only Super Typhoon Haiyan's 190 mph winds at landfall in 2013 in Samar, Philippines have been rated higher. After likely demolishing most of Koro with a long period of sustained winds of EF4 tornado strength, Winston weakened slightly, to 180 mph winds, while its northern (weaker) eyewall brushed the south coast of Fiji's second largest island, Vanua Levu. The city of Nambouwalu on the south coast of Vanua Levu reported 10-minute sustained winds of 121 mph at 06 UTC Saturday (roughly equivalent to Category 4 winds of 135 mph using the U.S. 1-minute averaging time.)

Winston then wobbled more to the west-southwest, possibly due to interaction with the high terrain of the two largest islands of Fiji. Maintaining winds of 180 mph, Winston slammed ashore along the northeast coast of Fiji's main island of Viti Levu in Rakiraki, a district of close to 30,000 people, near 07 UTC Saturday. The eye of Winston travelled westwards along the north coast of Viti Levu for two hours, pounding the entire north coast of the island with the strongest part of the storm, the southern eyewall. When Winston finally emerged from the island near 09 UTC Saturday, the storm was slightly weaker, but still had Category 5 winds of 160 mph. At that time, the edge of Winston's south eyewall moved over the second largest city in Fiji, Lautoka (population 80,000). The top sustained winds at the Lautoka tide station were 83 mph, gusting to 110 mph. These 10-minute average winds imply that at least Category 2 hurricane conditions (95 - 100 mph 1-minute averaged winds) were likely experienced there (thanks go to wunderground member Carnivorous for this link.) Damage to Fiji is going to be severe to catastrophic, but it will be several days before the true scope of the destruction is realized.

Winston the strongest tropical cyclone on record in the Southern Hemisphere
Winston's 185 mph sustained winds at its peak intensity at 00 UTC February 20 are the highest for any Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone ever rated by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). The previous record was 180 mph winds, held jointly by Cyclone Zoe of 2002 and Cyclone Monica of 2006. Winston's lowest central pressure as estimated by the Fiji Meteorological Service was 915 mb at 06 UTC February 20.

This ranks Winston as the 29th most intense tropical cyclone in the Southern Hemisphere by pressure. The record lowest pressure is 890 mb by Cyclone Zoe of 2002. Winston's top winds were higher than its central pressure might imply because it was a relatively small cyclone, so the wind-generating difference in pressure was packed into a small area. Winston joins a very select club of Category 5 storms ever recorded to churn the South Pacific waters east of Australia. Since satellite records began in 1970 (with high-quality satellite images only available since 1990), just eleven Cat 5s (including Winston) have been observed in the South Pacific east of Australia. Only two of the ten previous Cat 5s have made landfall as a Category 5.

The most recent was last year's Cyclone Pam, which was at its peak strength, with 165-mph Category 5 winds, when it passed over several small Vanuatu Islands to the north of Efate Island, Vanuatu's most populous island. The other Category 5 landfall was by Cyclone Zoe of 2002, which made a direct hit as a Category 5 storm on several small islands in the Temotu Province of the Solomon Islands with a total population of 1700. There was one other close call, though: the eye of Category 5 Tropical Cyclone Olaf passed 15 miles east of Ta'u, American Samoa, on February 16, 2005, but caused minimal damage.

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Op maandag 22 februari 2016 09:58 schreef Ener-G het volgende:

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En hoe groot is de kans dat ie nog een keer zo'n rondje gaat doen? :-X

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Op maandag 22 februari 2016 11:31 schreef Perrin het volgende:
Fotoserie:

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Op zaterdag 2 april 2016 04:07 schreef aloa het volgende:

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Volgens mij verwacht men een boven actief seizoen dit jaar...

De invest bij de Fiji eilanden ziet er indrukwekkend uit. Een enorm gebied met vochtige lucht.

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twitter:

metofficestorms twitterde op maandag 04-04-2016 om 12:21:33 Latest satellite imagery for the S. Pacific. Possible #cyclone development near #Fiji in the next 48 hours https://t.co/GmvtjYKqEb reageer retweet

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Op woensdag 6 april 2016 03:14 schreef aloa het volgende:
Zena is inmiddels toegenomen tot een cat 1 orkaan.

twitter:

RyanNBC6 twitterde op donderdag 14-04-2016 om 16:13:54 2016 Atlantic Basin seasonal forecast from @philklotzbach says:12 named storms (or 13, "Alex")5 hurricanes (or 6, "Alex")2 major reageer retweet

twitter:

NWSNHC twitterde op dinsdag 26-04-2016 om 01:00:38 WMO retires the names Erika & Joaquin in Altantic & Patricia in Eastern Pacific. They are replaced with Elsa, Julian & Pamela @NHCDirector reageer retweet

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Op donderdag 2 juni 2016 08:34 schreef aloa het volgende:
Kaart voor maandag. Kan een orkaan worden voor Florida.


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Op donderdag 2 juni 2016 13:47 schreef aloa het volgende:
http://weather.msfc.nasa.(...)imation&numframes=15

twitter:

cfhc twitterde op maandag 20-06-2016 om 13:56:15 Tropical Storm danielle forms just east of Mexican coastline, will bring large amounts of rain to eastern Mexico. reageer retweet

twitter:

MJVentrice twitterde op woensdag 20-07-2016 om 15:44:35 Latest Calibrated GFS Ensemble tropical cyclone development forecast up to 50% chance for an MDR system next 15 days https://t.co/68xXPYlONS reageer retweet

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Op zondag 31 juli 2016 11:05 schreef aloa het volgende:
Gevaarlijke plek voor een orkaan. Haiti / Dominicaanse republiek, Jamaica en meer landen kunnen last krijgen van vooral zeer veel neerslag. De meeste wind voor Mexico.

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