The New York Times
Ukraine Deal Imposes Truce Putin Devised[...]
The cease-fire was agreed to after a two-week rebel counteroffensive backed by Russian troops, armor and artillery that threatened to roll back most of the gains the Ukrainian military had made. Russia has not acknowledged the presence of any of its military units on Ukrainian soil, and there was no mention of their removal as part of the agreement.
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The agreement resembles, almost verbatim, a proposal for a truce issued by President Petro O. Poroshenko in June.
It includes amnesty for those who disarm and who did not commit serious crimes, and the exchange of all prisoners. Militias will be disbanded, and a 10-kilometer buffer zone — about six miles — will be established along the Russian-Ukrainian border. The area will be subject to joint patrols. The separatists have agreed to leave the administrative buildings they control and to allow broadcasts from Ukraine to resume on local television.
It was unclear how “disarmament” would be defined, and it emerged as a potential stumbling block. The separatists have demanded that Ukrainian forces withdraw completely from the area, a condition that Kiev considers a nonstarter. The militias will also be unlikely to abandon their weapons.
For the future, the agreement says power will be decentralized and the Russian language protected. An early, failed attempt by more extreme members of the Ukrainian Parliament to ban Russian as an official language was one element that spawned the uprising.
The agreement says the executive in control of each region, the equivalent of a governor, will be appointed after consultations with each region. It also promises early elections and a job-creation program.
The negotiators, meeting in Minsk, Belarus, said they would reconvene on Monday to discuss the mechanics to carry out the agreement.
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In response to an email query, Clifford Kupchan, a director at the Eurasia Group, a Washington consulting firm, and a former State Department official, wrote, “I fear it won’t hold.” The main stumbling block, he said, is that Russia seeks federalization, including the right for each region to conduct its own foreign policy, whereas Mr. Poroshenko has offered only decentralization and would face a political backlash if he went any further.
Many analysts said the probable outcome would be a frozen conflict, much like those Russia created in Georgia and Moldova to keep them destabilized.
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Officials interpreted the opening of a new, southern front as an attempt by Moscow to convince Mr. Poroshenko that he had to reach terms at the negotiating table because he could not win on the battlefield.