Hier is de uiteenzetting van de dag-eerder-hypothese -edit-
"It is stated here and elsewhere, published about it (a.o. by famous Dutch professor Willem Wagenaar), that "witnesses are unreliable".
That's a pretty harsh and black and white statement in general, but in this case it is argubly not true.
Which witnesses do we have?
- the 5 witnesses in the NeX video:
1 - Language school teacher
2 - Giovani from Casa Pedro
3 - Oliva de Kam
4 - Martina (indian flower woman)
5 - Lorenzo Gonzalez (guide)
- Myriam Guerra (hostel/house owner)
- Lazaro (taxi driver)
- Feliciano Gonzalez (most experienced guide in the area)
(- Plinio Montenegro (guide, not certain))
To treat all these witnesses as equal is not only politically (see my signature) but also scientifically wrong. They simply aren't.
Oliva de Kam and Giovani de Casa Pedro do have had a more in-depth witness "experience" with most probably Kris and Lisanne than "yeah, I saw two girls walkin' ther' ye'know". They state:
- "la gordita" (Kris) in black lycra and the other girl in shorts went on Alto Lino Trail ~14:15, came back soon
- I saw 1 girl with shorts going up the mountain at that late hour
We know for a fact (photo proof) that both Lisanne and Kris had:
- min. 1 black lycra -> Schiphol airport photo
- min. 1 shorts (Kris; jeans, Lisanne; light blue short) -> Photo of Lisanne playing cards in Bocas
Now stating that both Giovani and Oliva saw "two other girls, all these gringas look alike" is simply not acceptable until those 2 possible girls claim it was them.
Until then (and as far as I know there haven't been reports like that) it makes sense to assume they already checked out the area the day before their fatal hike.
It simply fits.
With a better explanation I am open to be convinced, but until know this appears to me the most logical explanation. Ockham and his famous razor blade.
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What is still uncertain, is what Lisanne was wearing on April 1st. We do not have confirmed witness reports of the time in Boquete between ~8:30-10:30 nor of the El Pianista trail 10:45-14:00.
The taxi ride in between must have been recorded by someone; the alleged taxi driver could be mistaken in the hour, there could have been another taxi, etc.
Also the fact (in absence of a statement) that dog Blue did not walk with them on Tuesday ~11:15 does not mean anything. If the Pianista trail was that popular as stated on some sites, it would be impossible for a dog to follow every group.
And here lies our other missing clue. If the El Pianista was popular with tourists, why don't we have any confirmed sightings that Tuesday morning of April 1st?
What we have is a possible sighting by Plinio Montenegro around this time. Still unconfirmed, very difficult to treat.
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To be honest; I am not surprised that the NEW Remains of 03/08 are not from the girls. I am however surprised how it is possible that "just when the parents are there, new traces are found". Actually, I am not surprised at all, better would be to say that in a professional situation it would be surprising.
Another point to think about using the scenario that Kris and Lisanne started "testing" El Pianista on March 31st and "doing the real thing" on April 1st, they did not plan to stay the night there.
If Lisanne was wearing the shorts (Oliva) and Kris the black lycra (Giovani) and they would "switch" clothing next day, it means Kris was not bothered by wearing shorts in the jungle (a foolish idea in my opinion and experience).
On the other hand; I believe the girls walked on from the Mirador:
- intentionally
- happily
- knowing that that was and would not be a way back to Boquete (crossing the Continental Divide -without obvious passes by geographic definition not going back to Boquete-)
Reasoning:
- I would do the same, especially if the choice would be "being back in Boquete by 16:00" or "checking out some stuff here behind, we can always go back to be back on the road to Boquete before dusk (~18:45)"
- they took a happy picture of Kris (and statements about more happy photos of both girls by Hans Kremers)
- they have looked at the map in the language school (as a geologist and hiker I'd do that for about 30 min) and have "researched" (statement parents Kris) the trail on "various" websites, where we have never found (searched info just after disappearance, before people took info offline) any proof that any of the sites claim that "walking on at Mirador, you have an alternative route to Boquete"
This means:
- the distress call @ 15:00-16:00 (pretty big timespan considering the terrain) was not done because of "we are together and don't know how to get back to Boquete"
- because the path from the Mirador to the two quebradas is straight and "logical, you cannot derail" (statement Roelie Kremers) they would have been able to get back 1-2 hours behind/after the last photo
- only when reaching the paddock both the river patterns and the paddock grasslands/open terrain can provide "options for getting lost"
- the paddock is reachable from the 2nd quebrada in about 30 min, and may be a logical place for the girls/one girl to look for cellphone coverage
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Considering the very small area which can be reached upon in ~1-2 hours from the 1st quebrada (Kris' last photo -happy- @ 14:00), I still stand with my hypothesis that the girls not only lost their way back, but early on lost each other and tragically because of that their young adventurous lives..."
- Eerder geplaatst op WS
[ Bericht 0% gewijzigd door Lavenderr op 14-08-2014 15:31:22 ]
Op donderdag 4 april 2024 19:36 schreef Aoibhin het volgende:
Verrek ja, ik zie nu ook Jezus in de aardbeien :o