quote:Of the 54 rounds collected, only five appeared to have been manufactured after the Soviet collapse. All of these rounds bore stamps from Luhansk.
The presence of the ammunition from multiple Soviet factories that were busily manufacturing standard ammunition for Soviet rifles in the late Soviet period aligns neatly with historical factors at play in Ukraine. Put simply, these rounds, along with the samples from Luhansk, carried the headstamps one would expect in Ukrainian military arsenals and in the unregistered stockpiles from the Soviet collapse. The provenance of the stamps also aligns with rebel claims that much of their ammunition was captured from dispirited government troops, or was purchased from corrupt local police or sympathetic military officers.
This, of course, will not settle any arguments, and it shouldn’t, given the small sample size. (We invite other researchers to gather and pool more data and see where it leads.) Some commentators might want to claim that the presence of cartridges manufactured on Russian soil suggests that a recent Kremlin hand was involved in funneling these rounds to the fighters, and thereby stoking eastern Ukraine’s violence. This sample certainly does not disprove that possibility, as similar cartridges would be expected to be found over the border in Russia, in neighboring countries, and in the pro-Russian enclave of Transnistria. The Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project posted a video report earlier this month of a sting showing one possible way that arms have flowed into eastern Ukraine from Transnistria. And any smart arms pipeline to the rebels would match headstamps smuggled into Ukraine to those already in Ukrainian stockpiles.
Still, given Ukraine’s arms-trafficking circles, smuggling weapons into Ukraine might not be necessary. And a fuller read of Ukraine’s peculiar stockpiling history means that these cartridges cannot be pinned to any external foreign support by identification alone, and that local sources are more than plausible for much of what was fired at the edges of Slovyansk in May. If that was the case, Ukraine has been suffering from what its corrupt arms dealers once shipped. Its violence, tied to surplus arms far beyond what its military might ever need, and that might better have been destroyed long ago, is a reminder of the many excess stockpiles around the world, all of them latent firepower, waiting for their day.
Ik vond de theorie van KoosVogels in het MH17 topic best aannemelijk. Stuur alvast deze marechaussees en jaag er dan zo snel mogelijk een VN resolutie doorheen. Dan kun je de luchtmobiele brigade ernaartoe sturen.quote:Op donderdag 24 juli 2014 22:01 schreef AlexanderDeGrote het volgende:
Heeft iemand in dit topic er vertrouwen in dat het goed gaat komen met die 40 ongewapende marechaussees? Met al die vage mafkezen met een te groot geweer (van beide kanten) die daar zitten. Het lijkt wel een soort aas om een reactie uit te lokken van kwaadwillenden.
Echt een typisch Nederlandse halve oplossing. Of je maakt een goede deal met de rebellen of je imponeert ze met machtsvertoon. Wat moet zo'n man nu als hij geconfronteerd wordt met een agressieve rebel die al in Tsjetsjeni gevochten heeft?
In 2005 werd de overtollige munitie in Oekraine op 2 miljoen ton geschat, zoveel als de UK en US tesamen tijdens de tweede wereldoorlog boven Europa hadden gedropt. In 2009 was de inventaris volgens een wikileaks cable opgelopen tot 5 miljoen ton.quote:Op donderdag 24 juli 2014 21:08 schreef DeJori het volgende:
Een erg lang, maar interessant artikel over de gebruikte munitie in The New York Times:
http://atwar.blogs.nytime(...)s&smid=tw-share&_r=0
De 'conclusie':
[..]
quote:Ukraine: Unguided Rockets Killing Civilians
(Donetsk) – Unguided Grad rockets launched apparently by Ukrainian government forces and pro-government militias have killed at least 16 civilians and wounded many more in insurgent-controlled areas of Donetsk and its suburbs in at least four attacks between July 12 and 21, 2014, Human Rights Watch said today.
The use of indiscriminate rockets in populated areas violates international humanitarian law, or the laws of war, and may amount to war crimes.
Grads are unguided rockets that cannot be targeted accurately, and are often fired in salvos from multi-barrel rocket launchers to saturate a wide area. Human Rights Watch called on all parties to the conflict in eastern Ukraine, particularly Ukrainian government forces, to stop using Grad rockets in or near populated areas because of the likelihood of killing and wounding civilians. Insurgent forces should minimize the risk to civilians under their control by avoiding deploying forces and weapons in densely populated areas.
“Grad rockets are notoriously imprecise weapons that shouldn’t be used in populated areas,” said Ole Solvang, senior emergencies researcher at Human Rights Watch. “If insurgent and Ukrainian government forces are serious about limiting harm to civilians, they should both immediately stop using these weapons in populated areas.”
[...]
http://www.hrw.org/news/2(...)ts-killing-civilians
Een bekend verhaal. Maar er zijn meer verhalen:quote:Op donderdag 24 juli 2014 21:08 schreef DeJori het volgende:
Een erg lang, maar interessant artikel over de gebruikte munitie in The New York Times:
http://atwar.blogs.nytime(...)s&smid=tw-share&_r=0
De 'conclusie':
[..]
Ik vind het de verstandigste beslissing die ze konden nemen. Geen gevaar voor vuurgevecht omdat n partij zich bedreigd voelt, ook geen discussie mogelijk over wie met schieten is begonnen.quote:Op donderdag 24 juli 2014 22:01 schreef AlexanderDeGrote het volgende:
Heeft iemand in dit topic er vertrouwen in dat het goed gaat komen met die 40 ongewapende marechaussees? Met al die vage mafkezen met een te groot geweer (van beide kanten) die daar zitten. Het lijkt wel een soort aas om een reactie uit te lokken van kwaadwillenden.
Echt een typisch Nederlandse halve oplossing. Of je maakt een goede deal met de rebellen of je imponeert ze met machtsvertoon. Wat moet zo'n man nu als hij geconfronteerd wordt met een agressieve rebel die al in Tsjetsjeni gevochten heeft?
twitter:StateOfUkraine twitterde op donderdag 24-07-2014 om 22:55:15As a result of a two-day military operation #Ukraine troops took control over #Lysychansk; some RU left the city before the main assault. reageer retweet
twitter:MiddleEast_BRK twitterde op donderdag 24-07-2014 om 22:23:51#BreakingConfirmation Ukrainian forces liberate #Lisiciansk! "All administrative buildings of the town are under the control of the ATO." reageer retweet
twitter:MiddleEast_BRK twitterde op donderdag 24-07-2014 om 22:49:12#Maps Left: Russian one, Right: Ukrainian one. I marked, where I fear, the Russian one is more accurate ... http://t.co/fLU1qlKx6a reageer retweet
Ik vind het onverstandig. Want je hebt geen controle over de situatie, maar bent afhankelijk van de goede wil van anderen. Daarbij zijn de rebellen ongebonden aan iedere norm of regel. Je kan als menselijk schild gebruikt worden, gegijzeld worden, in de weg staan....quote:Op donderdag 24 juli 2014 22:01 schreef AlexanderDeGrote het volgende:
Heeft iemand in dit topic er vertrouwen in dat het goed gaat komen met die 40 ongewapende marechaussees? Met al die vage mafkezen met een te groot geweer (van beide kanten) die daar zitten. Het lijkt wel een soort aas om een reactie uit te lokken van kwaadwillenden.
Echt een typisch Nederlandse halve oplossing. Of je maakt een goede deal met de rebellen of je imponeert ze met machtsvertoon. Wat moet zo'n man nu als hij geconfronteerd wordt met een agressieve rebel die al in Tsjetsjeni gevochten heeft?
twitter:ggatehouse twitterde op donderdag 24-07-2014 om 12:52:16But int'l observers on the ground say: only Dutch experts present are forensic, not aviation. reageer retweet
twitter:ggatehouse twitterde op donderdag 24-07-2014 om 12:53:23Malaysian experts I spoke to said they were civil aviation, not qualified to inspect shrapnel-shredded fuselage reageer retweet
twitter:ggatehouse twitterde op donderdag 24-07-2014 om 12:55:213 Australians arrived today as well but two of them diplomats, not experts. #MH17. In short, there currently isn't really an investigation reageer retweet
quote:Ukraine Advances After Heavy Fighting
DONETSK, Ukraine – While most eyes of the world were focused on the July 17 downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17 that killed 298 people, Ukraine’s government forces continued assaults that regained territory from Russian-backed separatist fighters.
Using everything from small arms and mortars to heavy artillery and airstrikes, they have managed to retake some key cities in Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, home to 15 percent of Ukraine’s population, forcing the insurgents to retreat to provincial capitals and their outskirts.
The military is closer than ever to fully encircling the rebels. But the wins have come at a steep cost. Hundreds of civilians have been killed since the government launched its anti-terrorist operation in mid-April.
In the past week alone, there have been dozens more casualties as well as heavy damage to residential buildings and infrastructure. The military also lost two more warplanes this week, shot down at an altitude of 5,200 meters by what Kyiv authorities say were rockets fired from Russian territory. Brought down near Savur-Mohyla and Dmytrivka, their shooting-down brought the total number of aircraft downed or damaged since the start of the conflict to nearly 20.
Kremlin-backed guerillas also continue to control a strategic border crossing near Izvaryye in Luhansk Oblast, which they use to transport weapons and reinforcements from Russia into Ukraine, according to Kyiv and Western intelligence sources.
[...]
http://www.kyivpost.com/c(...)fighting-357839.html
quote:If the West doesn’t do more for Ukraine now, it might soon be too late
VLADIMIR PUTIN has responded to the international outrage over the destruction of a Malaysian airliner by his proxies in eastern Ukraine by escalating his aggression. According to U.S. officials, tanks, artillery and other heavy weapons have continued to cross from Russia to Ukraine since the passenger jet was shot down. On Wednesday, two more Ukrainian military jets were hit by anti-aircraft missiles, which Ukrainian officials said had been fired from Russia. The State Department also said Thursday that Russian artillery was firing at Ukrainian positions from across the border.
The Russian president is clearly not impressed by Western responses to the killing of 298 innocent people and the subsequent attempt by his government and its proxies to deny and cover up the crime. And why should he be? After making a statement Monday that contained no tangible response and only a vague threat that “the costs for Russia’s behavior” will increase, President Obama departed for three days of fundraising on the West Coast. The message to Mr. Putin — not to mention the Israelis, Palestinians and Iraqis fighting their own wars — was that the president was not engaged enough by the crises to set aside the purely political activity of collecting checks from donors.
In Brussels, European Union officials met Thursday to discuss potential sanctions against Russia, including new measures against the banking, energy and arms industries. But no decisions will be made before next week, and even then Moscow will likely be given a new deadline for meeting a demand that it stop supplying the Ukrainian rebels. Previous deadlines to cease weapons deliveries have passed with no significant action.
While the West temporizes, a de facto Russian army is rapidly assembling in occupied portions of eastern Ukraine. A report in the Financial Times, sourced to U.S. intelligence officials, says it includes dozens of T-64 battle tanks, Grad rocket launchers, self-propelled guns, infantry combat vehicles with automatic cannons and armored personnel carriers, in addition to anti-aircraft systems like the one that shot down the Malaysian plane. This force is commanded by Russian citizens who infiltrated Ukraine from Moscow, including a Russian secret police colonel, and made up in large part of fighters from Russia.
Incredibly, the European Union’s position — tacitly supported by Mr. Obama — is that the Ukrainian government should stop attempting to expel the invaders from its territory and instead negotiate with them about the political future of Ukraine. Fortunately, newly elected President Petro Poroshenko has not capitulated to this appeasement strategy. However, his appeals for military aid from the United States and NATO, or at least more substantial sanctions, have so far been turned aside by Mr. Obama and the Europeans.
Frustration with Mr. Obama’s weakness now extends to the top ranks of the Democratic Party. A letter released Tuesday by three Senate committee chairs — Dianne Feinstein (Calif.), Carl Levin (Mich.) and Robert Menendez (N.J.) — called on Mr. Obama to “impose immediate broad sanctions” against Russia’s defense sector, as well as broader measures against energy and financial industries, and to explore designating the rebels’ political structure as a foreign terrorist organization. While cooperation with Europe is desirable, the senators said, “the United States must not limit its own national security strategy when swift action will help fulfill our strategic objectives.”
Mr. Obama has already missed the opportunity for swift action to stop Mr. Putin’s escalation. If he does not act soon, it may be too late to save Ukraine.
http://www.washingtonpost(...)a85133bc9_story.html
quote:Poroshenko seeks urgent Rada debate on Yatsenyuk's resignation
Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko has asked Verkhovna Rada Speaker Oleksandr Turchynov to urgently arrange a parliamentary debate concerning the possible resignation of Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk.
http://www.kyivpost.com/c(...)ignation-357852.html
Uit de bovenstaande tekst:quote:Op vrijdag 25 juli 2014 12:12 schreef deelnemer het volgende:
Een verslag van de (pro)Russische zijde.
Donbass Military Situation Report, July 23, 2014
De belangrijke verbindingen tussen Lugansk en Donetsk.quote:At this time, the following units and field commanders have subordinated to Strelkov and his staff:
Bezler, Mozgovoi, Battallion Oplot, Battalion Kalmius, the Russian Orthodox Army, Brigade Vostok, and the forces operating near Saur-Mogila and Marinovka (DPR).
It is unknown whom the militiamen in Debaltsevo obey. It is also uncertain to whom Ataman Kozitzyn subordinates, and, considering that he is not on good terms with both Bolotov and Strelkov, it is clear that he does not obey them.
Bolotov commands the large part of the Militia units on the LPR territory. In other words, the issue of unified command has not been resolved to date, which is what has been causing public controversies among field commanders.
According to Zakharchenko:quote:The Junta forces remain encircled. This includes the battered 79th and 24th Brigades and the remnants of the 72nd Brigade, as well as the remains of the punitive Battalion Shakhtersk.
For several days now, the bottleneck near Marinovka (DPR), occupied by the Militia, has been under continuous attack by the Junta forces, which are seeking to de-blockade their surrounded troops, but the militiamen have been steadfastly repelling the attacks.
Because the surrounded troops have nowhere to advance, most of their military equipment has been destroyed, and they experience severe difficulties with supplies of fuel, their primary hope for salvation lies either in a breakout through Marinovka (DPR) or in overall success on other fronts.
(Kozhevnya, Dubrovka and Chervonaya Zarya liggen bij de grens)quote:Yesterday there was an assault in the area of Kozhevnya, Dubrovka and Chervonaya Zarya. Strelkovs units, Battalion Oplot and Battalion Steppe took part in the operation.
By the end of the day, Kozhevnya was liberated from the enemy forces. At the very least, the settlement and the river crossing were freed. This morning, according to my information, Dubrovka was also taken. The Dubrovka-Kozhevnya direction is practically in our hands.
The enemy has taken position on the heights near the border. That is where they have their strongholds, pillboxes, bunkers, artillery, and the border crossing checkpoint near Maryanovka. I believe that their liberation is only a question of time it will be done today or tomorrow.
quote:At this time, the hole on the border is approximately 60-80 kilometres and has a tendency to expand. The collapse of the Juntas offensive against the border crossing checkpoints ended up with a heavy defeat and large casualties.
As the border guard service has fallen part, and the Junta has no capacity quickly to grow its forces on the border (they have all been drawn into battles on various directions), then, overall, the border has been safeguarded and the aid continues to flow
The 72nd Brigade, encircled to the south of Izvarino and Krasnodon, has, by the looks of it, ceased to exist as an organized unit. A part of its personnel has fled, a part has joined the encircled 24th and 79th Brigades.
Practically all of the 79th Brigades military equipment has been destroyed or damaged (needs repairs either in field workshops or in factory conditions); there are large manpower losses. It can be confirmed that this is the first completely routed unit of the Ukrainian army itself, apart from the punitive Battalions that had been destroyed earlier.
In general, the situation remains difficult, but the character of the fighting is such that for now there is no suggestion of a DPRs and LPRs complete defeat.
quote:Op donderdag 24 juli 2014 14:53 schreef deelnemer het volgende:
twitter:MiddleEast_BRK twitterde op donderdag 24-07-2014 om 13:51:51The Ukr army 79th airborne brigade was completely destroyed by Rus armed forces and invaders.https://t.co/GnXfhUmRFN http://t.co/yBEaOq1sbv reageer retweet
twitter:MiddleEast_BRK twitterde op donderdag 24-07-2014 om 13:59:49Correction: PARTS of the brigade got destroyed. The ones, stationed near the Russian border in #Luhansk oblast. reageer retweet
quote:vr 25 jul 2014, 11:57
Rusland verhoogt rentetarief onverwacht
MOSKOU (AFN) - De Russische centrale bank heeft het belangrijkste rentetarief onverwacht verhoogd. Dat is vrijdag bekend geworden.
Het tarief staat nu op 8 procent, terwijl het eerder op 7,5 procent stond. Geen enkele van de 23 door persbureau Bloomberg ondervraagde economen had de verhoging verwacht. Een van hen rekende zelfs op een verlaging. Met de jongste verhoging probeert de centrale bank de financile gevolgen van de crisis rond Oekrane en de dreiging van verdere sancties in te dammen.
De rente werd begin maart al met 1,5 procentpunt verhoogd in een poging de aanhoudende devaluatie van de roebel te stoppen. Die verhoging was de grootste sinds de roebelcrisis in 1998. Daarna volgde nog een verhoging eind april.
Naar eigen zeggen lijken de rebellen niet bepaald verslagen. Ook ontvangen ze naar eigen zeggen wapens vanuit Rusland en ligt de grens open. De crash-site, waar de politiemissie naartoe gaat, ligt niet ver ten noorden van de bottleneck Marynivka (Маринівка).quote:Op vrijdag 25 juli 2014 13:15 schreef deelnemer het volgende:
In general, the situation remains difficult, but the character of the fighting is such that for now there is no suggestion of a DPRs and LPRs complete defeat.
ik hoop niet dat ze als kippen zonder kop sancties gaan invoerenquote:'Duurder brood bij sancties Rusland'
Als de spanningen tussen Rusland en Oekrane en Rusland en de Europese landen verder toenemen, kan brood in de supermarkten duurder worden. Agrarische sancties richting graanproducent Rusland "hebben zeker impact" op de graanprijzen.
'Duurder brood bij sancties Rusland' Foto: Thinkstock
Dat stelt sectoreconoom van ABN AMRO Frank Rijkers vrijdag.
Vooralsnog gaan de politieke spanningen in Oekrane en Rusland aan de graanhandel voorbij, stelt ABN AMRO in een sectorupdate.
Begin dit jaar, toen het conflict tussen Rusland en Oekrane escaleerde, werd daar juist wel op gerekend.
Goede vooruitzichten
Als agrarische sancties uitblijven, liggen er juist prijsdalingen in het verschiet. Afgezien van de politieke situatie in Oost-Europa lijken de vooruitzichten goed.
De oogsten zijn beter dan begin dit jaar, toen extreme droogte in Brazili en regen- en sneeuwval in Noord-Amerika roet in het eten gooiden.
De effecten van de ongunstige omstandigheden vorig jaar zwakken af, wat volgens ABN AMRO tot betere productie leidt.
Laagste niveau
Door het toegenomen graanaanbod worden tarwe en andere granen al sinds mei goedkoper. "De graanprijzen naderen de laagste niveau's in vier tot vijf jaar tijd", zegt Rijkers.
Lagere graanprijzen leiden overigens niet automatisch tot goedkoper brood. De lagere prijzen moeten dan wel in de keten worden doorberekend.
Veel van het graan voor de Europese markt komt uit het gebied rondom de Zwarte Zee. Rusland en ook Oekrane zijn belangrijke exporteurs.
http://www.nu.nl/economie(...)ancties-rusland.html
Kan dit iets te maken hebben met de opgeblazen brug bij Donetsk? Die lijkt namelijk een snelweg te blokkeren.quote:Op vrijdag 25 juli 2014 13:15 schreef deelnemer het volgende:
De belangrijke verbindingen tussen Lugansk en Donetsk.
De snelweg E40 / M-04 (Donetsk - Debaltsevo - Alchevsk - Lugansk- Izvaryne) is van groot strategisch belang. Debaltsevo is een belangrijk kruispunt in het gebied van de rebellen.
De H21 van Donetsk naar Lugansk is tweede keus. Hier werd eerder in de week gevochten ten zuiden van Lugansk rond Lutuhyne / Heorhiivka. Daarbij werd gemeld dat Heorhiivka was ingenomen.
Is dat de brug bij Novobakhmutivka die 7 Juli is vernield, maar dan later en wat verder ingestort?quote:Op vrijdag 25 juli 2014 14:32 schreef DeJori het volgende:
[..]
Kan dit iets te maken hebben met de opgeblazen brug bij Donetsk? Die lijkt namelijk een snelweg te blokkeren.
Volgens de bron [671]quote:Timeline of the 2014 pro-Russian unrest in Ukraine - July
7 July
At least three bridges were destroyed by rebel forces. All of the bridges lead into Donetsk city. One of the destroyed railroad bridges was over a highway. The highway was now also blocked.[671]
Novobakhmutivka ligt langs de H20 richting Kramatorsk en Slaviansk.quote:Ukraine crisis: Bridges destroyed outside Donetsk
The bridge destroyed in the village of Novobakhmutivka crossed over a main road out of Donetsk
Two other bridges on roads leading from Sloviansk to Donetsk were also destroyed in the villages of Zakitne and Seleznevka, Ukraine's transportation authority said on Monday.
Ziet er wel verdacht hetzelfde uit, ook de trein die er op staat. Ik heb een hiaat gehad in het zeer nauw volgen van dit conflict, dus had dit niet meegekregen. Bedankt voor de oplettendheid!quote:Op vrijdag 25 juli 2014 15:24 schreef deelnemer het volgende:
[..]
Is dat de brug bij Novobakhmutivka die 7 Juli is vernield, maar dan later en wat verder ingestort?
[..]
Volgens de bron [671]
[..]
Novobakhmutivka ligt langs de H20 richting Kramatorsk en Slaviansk.
Zakitne ligt langs de T-05-13 richting Krasnyi Lyman
Seleznevka ligt vlak bij Slaviansk
Het volgen van de ontwikkelingen is best lastig vanwege de taal barriere. Het eenvoudigst is gewoon Wikipedia lezen. Je loopt slechts 1 dag achter. En zij volgen de Russische berichtgeving beter dan wij in dit topic.quote:Op vrijdag 25 juli 2014 15:27 schreef DeJori het volgende:
[..]
Ziet er wel verdacht hetzelfde uit, ook de trein die er op staat. Ik heb een hiaat gehad in het zeer nauw volgen van dit conflict, dus had dit niet meegekregen. Bedankt voor de oplettendheid!![]()
Overigens hoop ik wel dat Phillips snel vrijkomt want die filmpjes van hem zijn vaak best interessant (als het geen interview op z'n Russisch is).
quote:24 July
The Ukrainian Government claimed that their forces entered Lysychansk and that after heavy fighting its forces began to round up the remaining separatists into custody.[805] Late in the evening Semen Semenchenko the commander of Donbass Battalion claimed on his Facebook page that his forces and elements of the 24th mechanized brigade reached the city hall and raised the Ukrainian flag [806] while the New Russia rebels claimed that Ukrainian force were repulsed with heavy losses.
Four Ukrainian servicemen were killed and 35 wounded in eastern Ukraine overnight.[807]
Vice News journalist Simon Ostrovsky posted that Slavyansk police started to exhume the bodies of those who were killed by pro-Russian separatist from a mass grave.[808][809]
Two pro-Russian tanks fired at the Ukrainian garrison besieged in Luhansk airport.[810]
The ukrainian government claimed the 79th Ukrainian airmobile brigade, besieged in Marynivka since 15 July, was partially relieved. More than 75 casualties were evacuated from the front line while the New Russia rebels claimed that the brigade was destroyed and doesn't exist anymore as a unit. [811]
Pentagon spokesman Col. Steve Warren said that "there is no question" that the Russian army was firing artillery at Ukrainian military targets through the common border in the last several days. Earlier, State Department spokeswoman Marie Harf declared that Russia is stepping up its delivery of weapons to pro-Russian rebels.[812]
http://en.wikipedia.org/w(...)rest_in_Ukraine#July
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