Hurricane Season 2014: Orkanen & Cyclonen

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Residents of the Philippines are being put on alert for possible future impacts from Tropical Depression 05W, which is on pace to strengthen into a tropical storm and even a typhoon.

AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Eric Wanenchak is especially concerned for impacts across the southern Philippines given how unusually far south in the western Pacific Ocean the depression developed.

"[The southern Philippines] do not get hit by tropical systems very often," stated Wanenchak. The majority of tropical storms and typhoons form too far to the north to take aim at these islands.

Wanenchak expects the depression's track, through the point of landfall, to mirror Super Typhoon Bopha from late 2012 closely. Bopha slammed into the island of Mindanao in the southern Philippines.

The good news is that a repeat of Bopha's super typhoon status is not expected. However, the warm waters of the Pacific and the absence of disruptive wind shear will allow the depression to strengthen into a tropical storm.

http://www.accuweather.co(...)alert-for-f/25205042

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Thousands left homeless after Solomon Islands storm

Thousands of people have been left homeless and dozens are still missing after a devastating storm in the Solomon Islands.

The death toll from the flooding currently stands at 17 people as heavy rain caused the Mataniko River to burst its banks, washing away houses, according to The Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade. However, the death toll is expected to rise with dozens of people, including children, still missing.

Donald Burgess, Water, Sanitation and Health Specialist for UNICEF in the Solomon Islands says they are expecting more people to seek shelter one of the 14 official evacuation centres currently set up as rains subside.

UN officials estimate 5,000 people are already in evacuation centres, several of which are local schools, after whole neighbourhoods were submerged in the hard-hit capital of Honiara.

"The biggest challenge for UNICEF in the coming days will be ensuring that systems are set up at these centres so that the people there have access to safe water and sanitation," Mr Burgess says.

"Some of the schools being used as evacuation centres currently only have 4 or 5 toilets and are not built to withstand a sudden influx of people such as this."

A state of emergency has been declared and 17 New Zealand police officers, already in Honiara, are now helping Solomon Islands police with the aftermath.

MFAT says the storm has damaged houses, roads and bridges. Powerlines are down and the airport is currently closed, with authorities working to reopen it. An estimated 1,000 people are sheltering in the terminal.

Swollen rivers and debris is cutting off access to many villages so it has been difficult for relief agencies to know just how many people are affected.

A helicopter flyover revealed the capital's infrastructure has been extremely badly damaged. Sewerage pipes have been broken and there's no water access.
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Relief agencies are now concerned disease may spread as water level recede.

"The government has gone into some of the evacuation centres today to do a sanitation and water assessment, to see what some of the needs of the people are there and I guess in terms of health that will be an issue as well," says Oxfam's Katie Greenwood.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade says 147 New Zealanders are registered as being in the Solomon Islands. New Zealand has already announced it will provide $300,000 in aid.

A tropical storm alert is still in place for the Western, Malaita, Makira, Central and Guadalcanal provinces. The weather system is slowly moving and intensifying bringing with it yet more heavy rain and coastal flooding.

Earthquake strikes

Meanwhile a strong 6.0-magnitude earthquake has also struck the Solomon Islands, the US Geological Survey said.

The tremor was at a depth of 63 kilometres and centred 30km west of the city of Kirakira.

The US Geological Survey issued a "green alert", indicating there was a low likelihood of casualties and damage.

http://tvnz.co.nz/world-n(...)slands-storm-5886451

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The deep tropics (south of 22.5°N) will have less to much-less than normal activity this year. Farther north, the very warm water off of the Eastern Seaboard is a concern, along with the oncoming El Niño conditions. There have been plenty of El Niño years with high impact seasons for the U.S. coast: 1957, 1965, 1969, 1976, 1983 (fading but still there), 1991, 1992, 2002, and 2004 are examples. The pattern favors stronger storms (relative to normals) in-close to the U.S. rather than in the deep tropics.

The ECMWF model is in strong agreement with this. Last year, it actually rang a warning bell with its forecast for near normal activity (it also did in 2012, but wasn't too accurate that year). This year, the ECMWF March tropical forecast is lower than those years.

What is different is that the ECMWF model has a forecast for higher than average activity near the East Coast of the U.S.! We have been in awe at the lack of activity near the East Coast over the last 20 years, given the similar cycle to the 1950s. While Irene and Sandy have drawn significant attention, they were nothing compared to the meteorological mayhem of the 1950s or the intensity of 1938 and 1944. There is nothing to prohibit another Sandy-type hit from the southeast or three storms up the East Coast in one year despite a relatively low number of named storms in a season. The benchmark year on the eastern seaboard, 1954, had well below normal tropical activity in the deep tropics, with only Hazel being a strong storm south of 20°N, so there is strong historical support for the ECMWF's idea.

The combination of dry air, what looks to be a relatively colder AMO index, a poor setup for the Indian Ocean wave train, and the oncoming El Niño all argue against higher than normal frequency in the deep tropics. We think this a challenging year, one that has a greater threat of higher intensity storms closer to the coast, and, where like 2012, warnings will frequently be issued with the first official NHC advisory.

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Op donderdag 1 mei 2014 16:49 schreef Frutsel het volgende:
Volgend jaar kon het wel eens los gaan als die El Nino doorzet.

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Op donderdag 1 mei 2014 16:54 schreef Frutsel het volgende:

[..]

dat kan ja

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Amanda Grows Into Major Eastern Pacific Hurricane

Amanda continues to rapidly strengthen in the eastern Pacific, becoming the first hurricane of 2014.

At 7:30 a.m. PDT Saturday, Amanda was officially declared a hurricane. That is an unusually early feat in the eastern Pacific.

By 7:40 p.m. PDT Saturday, Amanda had intensified into a Category 3 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 115 mph.

Amanda is the second earliest major eastern Pacific hurricane on record, behind Hurricane Bud in 2012.

On average, it takes until June 26 for the first hurricane to form in the eastern Pacific.

The warm ocean waters and a lack of strong wind shear (disruptive winds above the surface) are allowing Amanda to undergo rapid intensification. Amanda was first classified as a tropical depression Thursday afternoon.

The first major hurricane of the season typically does not form in the eastern Pacific until July 19.

The strengthening trend should end Monday and Tuesday as Amanda heads northward into stronger wind shear. Cooler water also lies in Amanda's path in the days that follow.

Amanda will remain over the open waters of the eastern Pacific, posing no direct threat to land. However, moisture from the storm could be drawn into northern Mexico and the Four Corners region of the U.S. and lead to enhanced thunderstorm activity later in the week.

Amanda is just the start of what is likely to be a busy hurricane season in the eastern Pacific.

With the onset of El Niño this summer, AccuWeather.com meteorologists expect above-normal tropical activity in the eastern Pacific this season.

AccuWeather will also be monitoring the western Caribbean for possible tropical development late in May and during early June.

"The western part of the Caribbean Sea is a favored area for early season tropical activity in the Atlantic basin and there is a chance a non-tropical system dips southward in this area late in the month, which could allow for some development," AccuWeather.com Tropical Weather Expert Dan Kottlowski said.

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Eastern Pacific May Yield Gulf of Mexico Tropical Concerns



Tropical troubles brewing in the eastern Pacific may lead to concerns in the Gulf and far northwestern Caribbean soon after the official start to the Atlantic hurricane season.

AccuWeather.com meteorologists are monitoring an area south of Mexico, in the eastern Pacific, for a new tropical storm to take shape early next week.

It is possible that the system's energy could then slowly fuel tropical development in the Atlantic Basin in the days that follow.

Hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin officially commences on June 1.

After tracking across and bringing the threat of flooding rain to southern Mexico and neighboring Central America, energy from the system is likely to reach the southern Gulf of Mexico or the far northwestern Caribbean during the latter part of next week.

"The environment that we are seeing unfolding across the Gulf of Mexico and far northwestern Caribbean for next week would cause any tropical feature to move slowly and support possible slow development," stated AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Rob Miller.

A slower solution would increase the chances of the system developing, according to AccuWeather.com Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski.

"The faster the system reaches the Gulf of Mexico, it will have a harder time developing due to the presence of strong wind shear," Kottlowski stated. Wind shear refers to winds above the surface that can rip apart developing tropical systems.

"The longer it waits to come out, the better chances the wind shear slackens and development takes place."

Regardless of whether a tropical system takes shape, heavy rain could be drawn across western Cuba and northward to Florida and the central Gulf Coast later next week or the following weekend.

The area of concern for tropical development in both basins is currently located several hundred miles south of southern Mexico and is a disorganized cluster of showers and thunderstorms.

"A broad area of low pressure with tropical characteristics is expected to organize out of this cluster by Sunday," stated Miller.

"It will tend to drift northward into the Gulf of Tehuantepec by Tuesday, possibly strengthening into a strong tropical storm or hurricane."

The waters in the path of the system are sufficiently warm for tropical development. While some wind shear is present, it is not overly strong.

The next tropical storm in the eastern Pacific would acquire the name "Boris."

Miller expects the system to move inland from the Gulf of Tehuantepec around Tuesday of next week.

"The threat for damaging wind would be in a concentrated area around the point of landfall. Flooding rain and mudslides would be the main impact with some mountainous areas potentially receiving 10 to 20 inches (250 to 500 mm) of rain through early next week," Miller continued.

As the system moves onshore and its moisture is drawn northward, heavy rain is likely to overspread the majority of far southeastern Mexico, including the Yucatan Peninsula, as well as Guatemala and Belize.

Cities potentially to endure a soaking from the system include Oaxaca, Veracruz, Merida, Belmopan and Guatemala City. Vacationers at the resort cities of Cancun and Chetumal also face an unpleasant wet stretch of weather.

"It has already been active across the resort areas on the Yucatan Peninsula due to daily thunderstorms, but the weather will only get worse next week as moisture from the eastern Pacific system comes into play," Miller stated.

Despite the disruptions to vacationers and the prospect of flooding and mudslides, Miller pointed out that the rain will bring long-term benefits to easing the ongoing drought across the area.

If the system in the eastern Pacific acquires the name "Boris" and makes the track across southern Mexico without dissipating, it would then keep the name "Boris" in the Gulf of Mexico or northwestern Caribbean.

If the system dissipates over southern Mexico and only a piece of its energy fuels a new tropical storm, the new system would acquire a name from the Atlantic Basin's list. The first tropical storm of 2014 in the Atlantic would be named "Arthur."

Accuweather

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Tropical Storm Boris made landfall near 2 am EDT Wednesday in Southeast Mexico as a tropical storm with 40 mph winds. The storm has weakened to a tropical depression and is expected to dissipate later today, but Boris remains an extremely dangerous rainfall threat to the region. Reports from the Mexican Weather Service indicate that the city of Tonala on the coast of Chiapas has recorded 12.5" (318 mm) of storm-total rainfall, and NHC is calling for rainfall totals of up to 20" from the storm. Tropical Storm Agatha hit this region at the end of May 2010 as a weak tropical storm with 45 mph winds, and dumped up to 22.27" of rain. The resulting catastrophic flash floods and landslides killed 190 and caused $1.1 billion in damage, mostly in Guatemala. Heavy rains from the precursors of Boris triggered a landslide in Guatemala over the weekend, killing five people.