Crisis in Syri� # 88:De crisis gaat door.

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Op maandag 25 november 2013 23:19 schreef expans het volgende:
Ik denk/vind ook dat Iran meer ervaring heeft met dit soort oorlogsvoering. Rusland is in de eerste oorlog gewoonweg afgemaakt, en heeft de tweede oorlog in Tsjetjenie gewonnen omdat invloedrijke clans zich overgaven, daarnaast ruimden ze alles op voordat ze mannen stuurden.

Dat is ongeveer wat de SAA probeert te doen maar dat werkt niet echt.

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The authors give a high grade to Hezbollah's performance in the 2006 war, describing it as more effective than that of any Arab army that confronted Israel in the Jewish state's history, and that Hezbollah militants wounded more Israelis per fighter than any previous Arab effort.

Unlike a traditional guerrilla force, however, Hezbollah emphasized holding territory and digging in to bunkers, instead of the usual tactic of hiding among civilian populations. Likewise, the militant organization's discipline and coordination highly resembled those of conventional armies.

This combination of conventional and guerrilla tactics, the report claims, places new challenges before the U.S. Army. It calls for preparing the military for asymmetrical urban warfare, while at the same time working closely with civilian populations. It also calls for reducing military activity likely to harm the image of the U.S.

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Op maandag 25 november 2013 23:22 schreef Veldkamp het volgende:
Erdogan en Davutoglu waren gewoon trekpoppen van een neo-Ottomaans subgroepje binnen The New Middle East Project van de Isra�li's en Verenigde Staten, hoor.

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Ook economisch kan dit zware gevolgen voor Turkije krijgen. Als Iran de kans krijgt, zal het Turkije links laten liggen. Zeker zolang de AKP regeert althans. Iran voelt zich inzake Syri� door Turkije enorm verraden, maar had de Turkse zakenlieden nodig voor export en import.

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Op maandag 25 november 2013 23:24 schreef Veldkamp het volgende:
Ja en nu nog zijn er takfiri-salafistische bomaanslagen en zelfmoordterreur. Nou dus?

Daar zit zeker Assad ook nog steeds achter?

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Onzin. Ik geloof gerust dat Assad soennitische wahabitische strijders binnenliet naar Irak en exporteerde om geen Amerikaanse basis ten oosten te krijgen, tussen hemzelf en Iran in, maar in 2009 was dat gevaar allang geweken.

Je moet dus niet overdreven in al je speculatie...

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Op maandag 25 november 2013 23:28 schreef Intellectueel het volgende:

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Natuurlijk heeft Iran meer kennis en expertise m.b.t. asymmetrische oorlogsvoering. Amerikaanse militaire universiteiten hebben bijvoorbeeld de Libanees-Israelische oorlog van 2006 uitgebreid geanalyseerd, en claimden zelfs dat het Amerikaanse Leger lessen kan trekken uit de wijze waarop Hezbollah opereerde destijds:

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Op maandag 25 november 2013 23:36 schreef expans het volgende:
Heb je misschien wat meer info? Ik zou dat report wel willen lezen. Of andere dingen die focusen op urban warfare (UO/MOUT).

Ik vond laatst een case study van de US Army over urban warfare met mechanized infantry, ik zag wel wat raakvlakken met Syrie.

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Syria rebels press advance around Damascus, Aleppo: Activists

Rebels pressed an offensive east of Damascus and in southeastern Aleppo, in an escalation that in the past three days has killed scores of fighters on both sides, activists said on Monday.

Rebels in Eastern Ghouta east of Damascus are trying to break the army siege on opposition areas there, taking over several small villages and checkpoints, said the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.

"In the past three days, the rebels have taken over small villages and checkpoints east of Damascus and southeast of Aleppo, after launching counter-offensives on those fronts," said Observatory director Rami Abdel Rahman.

Southeast of Aleppo, rebels also battled troops after a recent advance by the army, he added.

Troops loyal to Assad had for several weeks gained the upper hand against the rebels at key battle fronts across the war-ravaged country.

"Now the army is no longer advancing there," he added.

Fighting on Monday was focused around Marj, east of Damascus, and Khanasser, southeast of Aleppo, Abdel Rahman said.

Opposition activists have described the latest counter-offensive as a bid to break the siege, which has prevented weapons and humanitarian supplies from entering the Eastern Ghouta area.

The main opposition National Coalition has linked the rebel advance to Friday's merger of Syria's biggest Islamist rebel groups, which did not include jihadists.

According to the Observatory, on Sunday the army used intense firepower to fight back, launching air strikes near Aleppo and around Damascus, while firing a surface-to-surface missile against Eastern Ghouta.

A security source in Damascus meanwhile told AFP "the armed men (rebels) are trying to secure some progress, but the tight ring around them means they will not succeed."

The source also said the army was conducting "operations... to secure the areas that were reclaimed" from rebel hands in southeastern Aleppo in recent weeks.

Pro-regime Al-Watan newspaper said the army was deploying troops in the majority Christian town of Deir Attiyeh, north of Damascus, "in preparation to take it back" from rebel hands.

Located in the strategic area of Qalamoun along Lebanon's border, Deir Attiyeh was taken over last week by rebels, among them jihadists.

In two and a half years, Syria's war has killed at least 120,000 people, and forced millions more to flee their homes

http://www.dailystar.com.(...)s.ashx#ixzz2lhT2g7xc

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Op maandag 25 november 2013 23:47 schreef Aloulou het volgende:
Goed nieuws beste broeders (nu krijg ik zo weer een boze Baklava achter me aan dat niet-Moslims broeders noemen ongeloof is )

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DAMASCUS: SYRIAN ARMY CRUSHES BANDAR'S COUNTER-OFFENSIVE; ISIS, FSA AND J.N. REELING FROM DISASTROUS ROUT; BANDAR'S HEAD REPORTED ON THE CHOPPING BLOCK AS SAUDI ARABIA BEGINS TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF ITS BLUNDERS!

SYRIAN ARMY LIBERATES ALL DAYR SALMAAN AND AL-QAASIMIYYA.

The terrorists are not only surrounded now in the East Ghouta, they are without ammunition or food. Monzer is on the scene reporting that rodents have surrendered in the hundreds around Dayr 'Atiyya in the Qalamoon. Whatever the Saudis and their Zionist allies were thinking, it could not have been with sober minds as Monzer describes idiotic military tactics used by Jihadist nihilists against fixed and very well-entrenched SAA armor and artillery. NDF playing a major role here by blocking marginal escape routes - the standing orders are to shoot at anything, especially at night. The SAA is making routes available for some citizens to escape but they are prevented from doing so by mostly the FSA which thinks that human shields will delay the inevitable descent into Hell. Even the completely incredible SOHR has now admitted to the terrorist failure.

Dayr Al-'Asaafeer: The SAA has perfected a complete encirclement of this town which is one of the few strongholds left for Bandar Bin Baboon's army of morons. Our source reports that the number of dead rodents inside is over 200 as more and more intercepts show that Jordan-based terrorist rodents are in conflict over to do. Monzer says that MI intercepts show no consensus as one commander has ordered his rodents to surrender while another threatened his own with death if they did. The morale inside this town is abysmal. There is no food and no way to bring in reinforcements or ammunition. The SAA is doing its best to convince the die-hards to release some of their rats who are wounded. To no avail. As of this writing, the SAA artillery can be heard in Baramki pounding the rats at Dayr Al-'Asaafeer.

Dayr 'Atiyya: The SAA is now closing the noose around the rodents inside this Christian town terrorized by the Bandar-villains. SAA killed 17 yesterday.

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Op dinsdag 26 november 2013 00:00 schreef Peunage het volgende:
Voor Baklava
"Man is either your brother in faith, or your equal in humanity."
Ali ibn abi Taleb.

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Op maandag 25 november 2013 23:55 schreef IPA35 het volgende:

http://www.syrianperspective.com/

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Op dinsdag 26 november 2013 00:01 schreef Aloulou het volgende:

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Bron die met hen "ratten" noemt wijst niet echt op enige poging objectief nieuws te verslaan. Zie het dan eerder ook als een bron met een hoog "feel-good factor" voor pro-Assad mensen. Dat wil overigens niet zeggen dat ik per definitie al hun nieuws verwerp.

The krant die ik citeerde (Daily Star Libanese) is denk ik een stuk objectiever. Ook genoeg rebellen-kritisch (of negatief) nieuws wat ze verslaan bijv.

De opmars van Assad, en vooral vasthouden aan veroverde gebieden, is waar maar ook enigzins gehyped. Er zijn al een paar dagen dat ik het intensiever volg ook hier en daar plaatsen aan rebellen en/of jihadisten verloren. Het Syrische leger lijkt moeite te hebben echt doorslaggevend door te stoten en veroverd gebied ook langer vast te houden.

Maar nu gaat Veldkamp mij vertellen dat dat allemaal niet waar is natuurlijk en het voor de zoveelste keer een kwestie van weken of twee maanden is voordat het over en uit is

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Op dinsdag 26 november 2013 00:01 schreef IPA35 het volgende:

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Wat heeft Baklava nu weer gezegd?!

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Op dinsdag 26 november 2013 00:03 schreef Peunage het volgende:

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Nog niks. Maar zodra hij dit leest; hap hap hap.

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Op dinsdag 26 november 2013 00:02 schreef IPA35 het volgende:
Maar Ziad abu Fadel (SyrianPerspective) is niet meer partijdig dan het SOHR, die man in Coventry.

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Op dinsdag 26 november 2013 00:04 schreef Aloulou het volgende:

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Dat zeg ik toch ook niet?

Hoewel ik die vent uit Coventry nog niet betrapt heb op "ratten", jij wel?

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Op dinsdag 26 november 2013 00:05 schreef IPA35 het volgende:

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Maar wel op steevaste propaganda.

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Aleppo gears for major regime offensive

ALEPPO, Syria — After almost a yearlong stalemate in Aleppo that hasn’t seen much in the way of significant gains for either side, the table is now being set for a major showdown. Although a serious regime offensive to retake Aleppo has been rumored on many previous occasions, this time it seems like it may be the real deal. Aside from small pieces of territory exchanging hands and intermittent clashes and skirmishes of varying ferocity, there has been nothing like the large-scale offensive recently launched by the regime in the southeast of Aleppo.

The regime’s rapid and successful takeover of the strategic town of Sfireh and nearby villages just to the south of Aleppo city has rebels visibly shaken. For too long they’ve been complacent and overconfident that their control over much of Aleppo province was unchallengeable. But a number of significant factors have changed this calculus and proved to be a rude awakening.

This has hastened a shotgun wedding of several major Islamist factions fighting in Aleppo in the name of the Islamic Front as well as a call to arms and a lockdown in areas of the city they control. A curfew was imposed, and the only crossing from rebel-held east Aleppo into the regime-held western part was permanently shut, which meant students couldn’t go to university and workers, especially civil servants, couldn’t get to their jobs. Residents of Aleppo now face the bizarre notion that to travel a few blocks from the east to the west of the city or vice versa, you had to travel about 500 kilometers (310.7 miles) down to Hama, then back up again through side roads and military routes, a journey of around 10 hours.

The rebels’ recent troubles started after Turkey tightened its border controls, particular after the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) took over adjacent territory. They were exacerbated by internal fighting, with ISIS going after various rebel brigades like Asefet el-Shamal, Ghuraba el-Sham and Shuhada Bader, which significantly weakened the rebels in the northern countryside and threatened to ignite a full scale interfactional war. All these are contributing factors to the rebels’ string of defeats, but the most significant one — not much talked about — is the defection of former rebels who helped the regime retake the strategic Mwasalat Haditha area.

This is what has rebels worried the most, and their paranoia increased when the military head of the powerful Liwa al-Tawhid brigades, Abdelkader al-Saleh, was killed along with several other commanders in a pinpoint regime airstrike at a meeting they were attending. The rebels initially blamed nearby villagers for giving away their coordinates and detained dozens for questioning.

It soon became apparent, though, that any treachery came from within the rebels’ own ranks. They now fear the same scenario may be repeated if the regime enters Aleppo, with some factions waiting for the right opportunity to stab them in the back. That explains the unprecedented and unpopular measures of imposing dusk-till-dawn curfews as well as sealing the crossing. The crossing was reopened, however, for a few hours on Nov. 23 for emergencies.

Another very significant change on the ground is the local militia now fighting alongside the regime’s forces. This is a fairly new phenomenon in Aleppo, as the regime had previously relied on Hezbollah fighters and the National Defense Force (NDF), which is largely drawn from minorities. The new Quds militia in Aleppo, though, is different. It has almost all Sunni fighters drawn from local tribes and clans who inhabit southern towns such as Jibreen and the Nayrab refugee camp, where some Palestinians have also joined their ranks.

What this fresh offensive has meant in practical terms is that regime forces are now only a few kilometers from the rebel-controlled eastern edge of Aleppo city. A further push would see them inside the strategic area of Sakhur. If they manage to take that, they effectively skewer and divide the rebel parts of the city, cutting them off from one another and from vital supply lines. It would also pave the way for them to push into the Sheikh Najjar industrial zone — latest reports indicate that this has begun — and the Masaken Hanano suburbs currently under ISIS control as well as the densely populated Sha’ar area, which is home to many of the rebel factions’ headquarters and bases.

Already residents of those areas have started leaving their homes, fearing intense fighting that could flare up at any time. Most of them have opted to move farther into rebel-controlled areas of the city, away from the impending frontlines and into relatively less-dangerous areas. But the keyword here is “relative,” as the regime might also attack from central Aleppo across Bustan al-Qasr and Kalaseh, or the old city.

It still remains to be seen, however, if the regime wants, or indeed has the ability, to enter rebel strongholds in the city. It is very likely that the regime forces may choose to adopt a scenario like Homs or Ghouta, whereby they besiege and blockade the rebel areas, slowly strangling them. The timing of all this seems to be calculated to make as many gains on the ground as possible ahead of the Geneva II talks, tentatively scheduled for mid-December.

No doubt, significant victories in Aleppo will strengthen the regime’s hand and give it more bargaining leverage as well as enabling it to make fewer concessions. In the past two days, the rebels seem to have regained some initiative, launching a fierce attack of their own on suburbs in west Aleppo toward the strategic Military Academy on the Damascus highway.

The people of Aleppo are understandably scared, especially those who live in the rebel eastern parts which are expected to bear the brunt of the fighting. The prospect of a large-scale war in their city just adds to the misery that is everyday life for the average Aleppan. The city has been largely without electricity for about a month, another result of the regime offensive, as retreating ISIS fighters stormed the undefended and previously “neutrally zoned” main power station outside Aleppo, expelling the workers and looting it.

It must be said, though, that many people here, not just regime supporters, are hopeful that this latest regime offensive might drive the rebels out of the city, or at least see them relinquish large parts of it. Fatima, displaced from her home in Bustan al-Qasr and now living with her elderly mother in a mosque in west Aleppo, explained her despair at the continued fighting. “We are tired, we want to go home, we just want it all to end. I don’t care if the regime wins, as long as I can go back to my house and live in peace,” she told Al-Monitor.

This sentiment, while widespread, is not universal as some residents fear reprisals from regime forces — especially militias — if they retake their neighborhoods. Ahmad, a friend and Sha’ar resident, told me that if the regime comes, he won’t be waiting around to find out.

The looming battle for Aleppo is set to be a ferocious one, even by Syria’s vicious civil war standards. A major shift in power on the ground here may well change the course of the entire war and shape any future political settlements.