Beursvloer #230 - central bankers' paradise

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Op donderdag 23 augustus 2012 21:10 schreef monkyyy het volgende:
Waarom gaan aandelen omhoog als de FED T-bills opkoopt?

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Op vrijdag 24 augustus 2012 19:21 schreef sitting_elfling het volgende:
Dino, hoe zit dat eigenlijk met de 'subsidy income from government' nota op de jaarbalans van bedrijven genoteerd op de HK exchange. Ik bekijk op dit moment een specifiek aandeel, en dan zie ik plots eerstgenoemde staan onder 'other incomes' en het grofweg zo'n 65% van de inkomsten na taxation. Ik vind het enorm 'vaag' klinken.

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Op vrijdag 24 augustus 2012 19:48 schreef Dinosaur_Sr het volgende:

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Je lult teveel, je inbox is vol

Ja, mainland China is monkey business.

Welk bedrijf/jaarrekening?

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Op vrijdag 24 augustus 2012 20:33 schreef michaelHD9 het volgende:
morgen up or down or sideways?

0108daniel een toontje lager?

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Op vrijdag 24 augustus 2012 20:57 schreef monkyyy het volgende:
Morgen denk ik dat we precies even hoog sluiten als vandaag.

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Op vrijdag 24 augustus 2012 20:33 schreef michaelHD9 het volgende:
morgen up or down or sideways?

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Op zondag 26 augustus 2012 00:20 schreef Anno2012 het volgende:
September is historisch gezien de slechtste maand van een jaar.

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Summary
(I) The market is a pendulum that forever swings between unsustainable optimism and unjustified pessimism; and
(II) “Margin of safety” – never overpaying, no matter how exciting an investment seems to be.


•Good times teach only bad lessons: that investing is easy, that you know the secrets, and that you needn’t worry about risk. The most valuable lessons are learned in tough times

•Your goal in investing isn’t to earn average returns; you want to do better than he average. Different and better – that is about the “second-level thinking”

•For investing to be reliably successful, an accurate estimate of intrinsic value is the indispensable starting point. Without it, any hope for consistent success as an investor is just that: hope

•One of the greatest investment adages reminds us: being too far ahead of your time is indistinguishable from being wrong

•Buying from a forced seller is the best thing in the investment world, being a forced seller is the worst

•Investor psychology can cause a security to be priced just about anywhere in the short run, regardless of its fundamentals

•Investing is a popularity contest, and the most dangerous thing is to buy something at the peak of its popularity. At that point, all favorable facts and opinions are already factored into its price, and no new buyers are left to emerge

•All bubbles start with some nugget of truth: tulips are beautiful and rare (in seventeenth-century Holland); the Internet is going to change the world; real estate can keep up with inflation and you can always live in a house

•In bubbles, infatuation with market momentum takes over from any notion of value and fair price, and greed (plus the pain of standing by as others make seemingly easy money) neutralizes any prudence that might otherwise hold sway

•The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent

•Risk means more things can happen than will happen. The risk-is-gone myth is one of the most dangerous sources of risk, and a major contributor to any bubble

•Most investors think quality, as opposed to price, is the determinant of whether something is risky. But high quality assets can be risky. It’s just a matter of the price paid for them …

•Risk – the possibility of loss – is not observable. What is observable is loss, and loss generally happens only when risk collides with negative events

•Risk is the potential for loss if things go wrong. As long as things go well, loss does not arise. Risk gives rise to loss only when negative events occur in the environment

•Risky assets can make for good investment if they are cheap enough

•Two concepts could be held with confidence (I) Rule number one: most things will prove to be cyclical (II) Rule number two: some of the greatest opportunities for gain and loss come when other people forget rule number one

•The worst loans are made at the best of times

•Ignoring cycles and extrapolating trends is one of the most dangerous things an investor can do

•Improper amounts of risk aversion are key contributors to the market excesses of bubble and crash

•The academics consider investors’ attitude toward risk a constant, but certainly it fluctuates greatly

•The main risks in investing are: the risk of losing money and the risk of missing opportunity

•There are a few things of which we can be sure, and this is one: Extreme market behavior will reverse

•Greed is an extremely powerful force. It’s strong enough to overcome common sense, risk aversion, prudence, memory of painful past lessons … and all the other elements that might otherwise keep investors out of trouble

•The process of investing requires a strong dose of disbelief … inadequate skepticism contributes to investment losses

•It is hard to resist buying at the top (and harder still to sell) when everyone else is buying

•There is only one way to describe most investors: trend followers. Superior investors are the exact opposite.

•The less prudence with which others conduct their affairs, the greater the prudence with which we should conduct our own affairs

•Accepting the broad concept of contrarianism is one thing; putting it into practice is another
•Investment goal isn’t to find good assets, but good buys. Thus, it isn’t what you buy, it’s what you pay for it

•Patient opportunism – waiting for bargains – is often the best strategy

•Even if we can’t predict the timing and extent of cyclical fluctuations, it’s essential that we strive to ascertain where we stand in cyclical terms and act accordingly

•The critical element in defensive investing is what Warren Buffett calls “margin of safety” or “margin of error”. An investor needs to do very few things right as long as he avoids big mistakes

•Learning about pitfalls through painful experience is of only limited help. The key is to try to anticipate them

•Most trends – both bullish and bearish – eventually become overdone, profiting those who recognize them early but penalizing the last to join

•If we avoid the losers, the winners will take care of themselves

•Never forget the six-foot-tall man who drowned crossing the stream that was five feet deep on average. Margin for error gives you staying power and gets you through the low spots

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Op dinsdag 28 augustus 2012 12:10 schreef piepeloi55 het volgende:
Ik krijg langzaamaan de indruk dat we de 'Enthousiasm-fase' bereikt hebben. De huidige perceptie is erop ingesteld dat overheden en vooral centrale banken 'ongelimiteerde' middelen hebben om te stimuleren en alles in goede banen te leiden. Het enthousiasme over alleen al de gedachte van nieuwe stimuleringsmaatregelen bereikt een akelige hoogte. Dit gaat lelijk eindigen....

of het moet zijn dat mensen enthousiast zijn dat de hemel volgens hen omlaag komt, dat kan natuurlijk wel

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Op dinsdag 28 augustus 2012 13:39 schreef piepeloi55 het volgende:
Enthousiasme over (mogelijke) stimuleringsmaatregelen

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Op dinsdag 28 augustus 2012 13:39 schreef piepeloi55 het volgende:
Enthousiasme over (mogelijke) stimuleringsmaatregelen

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Op donderdag 6 september 2012 15:17 schreef 0108daniel het volgende:
Goede speech van Draghi
Bijna weer 1% erbij

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Op donderdag 6 september 2012 15:55 schreef Shispeed het volgende:
tijd om wat shorts in te kopen

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Op donderdag 6 september 2012 15:55 schreef Shispeed het volgende:

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tijd om wat shorts in te kopen