Olietopic #12 - Recessie op komst

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Canada's Oil Sands on the Verge of a Boom, Again
High crude prices, cheap natural gas, and U.S. demand boost heavy oil profits—and greenhouse gases.

The new technologies and drilling methods behind the current U.S. shale gas boom may mean cheap natural gas for the foreseeable future. But they are also driving higher profits and expanded development in Canada's controversial oil sands, often labeled "dirty oil" because of the huge volumes of natural gas required to extract and refine the fossil fuel.

There is no question oil sands activity is picking up again, says Andrew Potter, a petroleum analyst at CIBC World Markets. "Whereas 12 to 24 months ago, oil sands would have been showing rates of return in the 10 to 15 percent range with $85 a barrel (oil), we now see rates of return in the 15 to 25 percent range."

Shale gas is a big part of that story, given the role that natural gas plays in oil sands production. Canada has the world's largest proven reserves of bitumen—the tar-like form of petroleum found in oil sands—but turning it into light crude doesn't come easy. Some form of heating is typically required to separate the bitumen from the sands.

With surface mining, which accounts for rough half of all current projects, bitumen is removed from the sand by washing the mixture with hot water heated with natural gas. Another approach that's growing in popularity is in situ extraction. This involves a method such as steam-assisted gravity drainage, whereby a horizontal well is drilled into the ground and steam is injected inside, reducing the viscosity of the bitumen and causing it to flow upward through a separate vertical well. Steam-assisted gravity drainage has a much lower visual impact on the surrounding environment.

Natural gas is the largest single input cost for in situ projects. When natural gas prices are high, it can represent more than half of an oil sand project's operating costs. About 1,000 cubic feet of natural gas is burned for every barrel of bitumen produced from an in situ project. After that, another 400 cubic feet is put through a steam methane reforming process to produce hydrogen, which is required to upgrade the bitumen into a kind of synthetic crude that shares the same characteristics of conventional light oil.

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IMF warns oil growing scarce, more costly

WASHINGTON (AFP) The International Monetary Fund warned Thursday that nations should brace for dwindling oil supplies that could drive prices skyward as demand increases, especially in emerging economies .

"The persistent increase in oil prices over the past decade suggests that global oil markets have entered a period of increased scarcity," the IMF said in a report on the global economy.

Thomas Helbling, lead author of the report, underscored at a news conference that the world's oil supply was on a downslide.

"After stagnating in recent years, oil supply will not return to the growth trends of the 1980s and 1990s," he said.

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Fillon: oil production "can only decrease"

"We, in 2009, reached the peak in oil production", said Prime Minister Francois Fillon on April 5 before the National Assembly.

The French government joins the long list of prominent sources that suggest the threat of severe shortages of oil for years to come.

The International Monetary Fund, led by Dominique Strauss-Kahn, released yesterday a report warning that oil will become scarcer and more expensive ( AFP ).

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Texas expert: Deep drilling reflect's era's decline

We lose rate of oil production from the existing high-productivity reservoirs worldwide faster than we can replace it with the generally low-productivity new reservoirs. The only significant exception is production from the new, ultradeep, difficult and dangerous offshore reservoirs. This is why we have drilled offshore, and this is why we will continue to do so worldwide.

We can think of petroleum resources as a huge global banking account. Up until recently, our petroleum ATMs — i.e., oil and gas wells — operated with few if any restrictions. A good well in Saudi Arabia might produce 10,000 barrels of oil per day. Similarly, a good well in the Gulf of Mexico can deliver 5,000 to 10,000. But with time, nature imposes the ever more stringent daily withdrawal limits on our ATM cards. Old and easy oil reservoirs are depleted, the new ones are less productive, and we need more wells to produce less oil per day at a higher monetary and energy cost.

Because the real production rate of liquid petroleum is peaking and the imaginary additions are unlikely to make up for the rate deficit, the world, but especially the developed countries, and above all the U.S., will face the inevitable shortages of liquid transportation fuels. For the completely unprepared U.S., such shortages may be economically devastating. The U.S. is running out of time to move much of its transportation off the cars and trucks and onto rails that will guide electric trains of different kinds, not just the sexy and prohibitively costly "bullet trains."

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Op dinsdag 12 april 2011 00:13 schreef wolfrolf het volgende:
Tyfus. Bij de goedkoopste pomp hier in de buurt 1,619 voor een liter Euro

Niet leuk.

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Op dinsdag 12 april 2011 00:13 schreef wolfrolf het volgende:
Tyfus. Bij de goedkoopste pomp hier in de buurt 1,619 voor een liter Euro

Niet leuk.

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Crude Oil and Liquids Capacity Additions: 2011-2015

The two main uncertainties are 1) the pace of production capacity build up for Iraq and 2) the magnitude of small field contribution in this high price environment for non-OPEC supply.

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Crude Oil and Liquids Capacity Additions: 2011-2015

The modeling in this section on global crude supply relies on the open Wikipedia megaprojects database. The work draws on IEA, EIA and USGS databases and reports. Furthermore, the Monte Carlo simulations on decline take advantage of publicly available data and academic research. The intent is to frame reasonable probabilities for near-term production change.

As noted, the data to 2015 is the most robust, while development beyond 2015 holds too much uncertainty save for an educated guess. To be fair, this work is a line-of-sight estimate that may not benefit fully from on-going work in extant fields to increase recovery rates, delays or to produce marginal fields in this high crude price environment. For that reason, we model a low and high case. The high case incorporates incremental supply from the extant resource base.

Caveats aside, this work demonstrates that even under the most favorable conditions, a decrease in new resource additions is anticipated through 2014, at least. The overall decrease is shown in Exhibit 13 for both low and high cases. The decrease is a consequence of decline of 3.6 percent to the underlying extant global resource base in the face of modest capacity growth.

According to our modeling, the expected change (mostly decline) in global crude and condensate productive capacity is provided in Table 8. The modeling does not include the considerable NGL contribution expected stemming from massive investments in the last decade in liquefied natural gas. Just within OPEC, NGLs have increased from 4.6 to 5.1 Mb/d from 2009 to 2010 and are expected to move to 5.8 Mb/d in 2011.

Nonetheless, in the low case, net global productive capacity additions, after factoring in the decline of the resource base, is expected to drop though 2015 at an increasing pace. In the high case, an insignificant growth is modeled for 2015. Given the annual demand growth rate in the non-OECD of about 1.5 Mb/d, the modeled production growth rate in either case suggests that OPEC spare capacity will be trimmed over this time horizon.

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Op maandag 11 april 2011 20:40 schreef Perrin het volgende:

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(Tad Patzek, Ph.D., Professor and Chair of the University of Texas Department of Petroleum and Geosystems.)

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P You ask a broad question so I can only offer a broad answer. First, the obvious: those huge deep water oil fields cant be produced until they are drilled up and put on production. Only a small percentage of the proven reserves are on production and thus theres little impact on current oil prices.

And that leads to the real issue: how long will it take to get all those new fields producing? In a word: decades. By the time the last half of the fields are producing the first half will be far down their depletion curves. Due to the huge capex, offshore developments are designed to max the production ratenot ultimate recovery. Additional the high cost of operating in DW will result in all the fields being abandoned long before they would be if they were onshore.

A third critical factor regarding how much those huge reserves will aid all us consumers may be more questionable than most think. Its a bit premature but Brazil seems to be expanding their energy IMPORT capabilities: first ever floating LNG degasification plant, possible ethanol import expansion, etc. Brazil has a large population with many living near the poverty line. So the question develops: if youre the Bz govt would you export your oil or use it to grow your own economy? Consider that the US is the 3rd largest oil producer in the world yet we dont export oil because we need it to fuel our economy. How would that be different then the position Bz might take? They arent the KSA: they have an economy based upon a lot more than oil exports. In a sense Bz is in the same place the US was after WWII. We used our oil/NG resources to build a very strong economy that that lasted for many decades. Why would we expect Bz to do otherwise? Lets not forget the obvious: its Bzs oil and they are under no obligation to sell one bbl to anyone. Nothing personalits just business.

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Op dinsdag 12 april 2011 18:00 schreef wolfrolf het volgende:
De wereld gaat echt kapot als de olie dalijk gewoon keihard op of 3 keer zo duur is. Feitelijk alles draait op olie. Ik houd mijn hart vast.

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Op dinsdag 12 april 2011 19:03 schreef sitting_elfling het volgende:

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Dat is niet waar. Op het moment dat Olie veel duurder wordt, worden alternatieven interessanter omdat die dan wel rendabel worden en die zijn dat nu dus nog niet. Waarom zou je in alternatieven investeren als Olie (nu nog) zo goedkoop is? Ja als je het beste met het milieu voor hebt maar we hebben het hier over kapitalisme

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Op dinsdag 12 april 2011 20:36 schreef Q. het volgende:

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Oh ja, die alternatieven heb je ook natuurlijk zo even met een druk op de knop beschikbaar, stom van me dat ik dat steeds vergeet. Het kost niet decennia om die fatsoenlijk te ontwikkelen.

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Op dinsdag 12 april 2011 20:56 schreef waht het volgende:

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De prognose is dat de olieproductie niet keihard keldert maar na de periode van stagnatie (waar we nu middenin zitten) langzaam daalt. Voor een overgangsfase naar een alternatieven is er geen beter scenario. Het zal niet helemaal vloeiend gaan dus moet er m.i. op dit moment gericht worden op veerkracht, in de breedste term van het woord. Of de markt volstaat in het grootschalig ontwikkelen van alternatieven blijft voor mij een vraag maar Nederland heeft inmiddels een rijke traditie wat betreft subsidies dus moeten we daar gebruik van maken.

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Op dinsdag 12 april 2011 20:56 schreef waht het volgende:

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De prognose is dat de olieproductie niet keihard keldert maar na de periode van stagnatie (waar we nu middenin zitten) langzaam daalt. Voor een overgangsfase naar een alternatieven is er geen beter scenario. Het zal niet helemaal vloeiend gaan dus moet er m.i. op dit moment gericht worden op veerkracht, in de breedste term van het woord. Of de markt volstaat in het grootschalig ontwikkelen van alternatieven blijft voor mij een vraag maar Nederland heeft inmiddels een rijke traditie wat betreft subsidies dus moeten we daar gebruik van maken.

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Op woensdag 13 april 2011 06:21 schreef stbabylon het volgende:

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Is die prognose toevallig gemaakt door diegene die het grootste belang hebben bij zo'n scenario? Toevallig? Heel misschien?

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Op woensdag 13 april 2011 12:19 schreef Digi2 het volgende:
Olie raakt nooit op. Het zal alleen steeds kostbaarder worden omdat de makkelijk winbare olie wel degelijk opraakt.

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Verder kan men olie maken uit aardgas en steenkool. Zelfs middels planten en algen kan men olie produceren en op termijn zelfs via kunstmatige fotosynthese. De plannen om CO2 op te slaan zijn daarom zo gek nog niet. Deze CO2 kan later dienen als grondstof om olie te maken.

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Op woensdag 13 april 2011 11:59 schreef waht het volgende:

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Wie zou baat hebben bij zo'n scenario?

En jij wilt ontkennen dat olie ooit opraakt? Dat is immers in grote lijnen de prognose.

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Op woensdag 13 april 2011 12:34 schreef Basp1 het volgende:

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Aardgas en de GTL technologie draagt op dit moment al steeds meer bij aan de vervangingscijfers, dus hiermee zie ik de wereld langer op dit productieniveau blijven hangen.

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Op woensdag 13 april 2011 13:04 schreef Basp1 het volgende:

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Het is natuurlijk altijd winstgevend aangezien je er energie instopt en er andere energie uitkomt.

Maar er zullen idd andere processen zijn die minder energie kosten waar meer energie overblijft.