Bulls, Bears & Bucks #67 : Met speculerende handelaren

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Op maandag 21 juni 2010 12:50 schreef Q. het volgende:
Technisch analisten. . Dat moet echt de meest kansloze beroepsgroep in de financiele wereld zijn. .

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Op maandag 21 juni 2010 13:08 schreef SemperSenseo het volgende:

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Ik heb een beetje een probleem hoe zij tegen de werkelijkheid aankijken: ze kijken heel navelstaarderig naar de grafieken in de hoop allerlei patronen te ontdekken. Maar ondertussen vergeten ze de macro-economische ontwikkelingen. Kijk maar naar die gasten in de topic Beursvloer, die proberen ook een waardeoordeel te geven met al hun grafiekjes. "O jee, hij is zoveel punten in het rood dat moet wat betekenen, en nu is 'ie weer groen" Navelstaarderij

Ik ben meer van de macro-economische ontwikkelingen en oorzakelijke verbanden

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Fed houdt rente laag
Uitgegeven: 23 juni 2010 21:14
Laatst gewijzigd: 23 juni 2010 23:09

WASHINGTON - Het Amerikaanse stelsel van centrale banken, de Fed, houdt het belangrijkste rentetarief op het huidige lage niveau van bijna nul procent.

© ANPDit heeft de Fed woensdag na een tweedaagse vergadering bekendgemaakt.

Om het herstel van de economie te blijven ondersteunen handhaaft de Fed de 'federal funds rate' op 0 tot 0,25 procent voor een onbepaalde periode.

De centrale bank verlaagde het rentetarief al naar bijna nul in december 2008, een jaar nadat de Amerikaanse economie in recessie was geraakt.

Herstel

Het Federal Open Market Committee van de centrale bank zei verder dat de Amerikaanse economie zich ondanks financiële tegenwind vanuit het buitenland verder herstelt van de recessie.

''Informatie die de Fed sinds april kreeg, suggereert dat het economisch herstel vordert en dat de arbeidsmarkt zich geleidelijk verbetert'', aldus een verklaring.

Het tempo van het economisch herstel zal de komende tijd wel bescheiden zijn, aldus de Fed-verklaring.

De centrale bank verwees daarbij naar de negatieve implicaties van de Europese schuldencrisis voor de Amerikaanse financiële markten en economie.

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Ben Bernanke needs fresh monetary blitz as US recovery falters
Fed watchers say Mr Bernanke and his close allies at the Board in Washington are worried by signs that the US recovery is running out of steam. The ECRI leading indicator published by the Economic Cycle Research Institute has collapsed to a 45-week low of -5.7 in the most precipitous slide for half a century. Such a reading typically portends contraction within three months or so.

Key members of the five-man Board are quietly mulling a fresh burst of asset purchases, if necessary by pushing the Fed's balance sheet from $2.4 trillion (£1.6 trillion) to uncharted levels of $5 trillion. But they are certain to face intense scepticism from regional hardliners. The dispute has echoes of the early 1930s when the Chicago Fed stymied rescue efforts.

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WSJ: The Keynesian Dead End
Spending our way to prosperity is going out of style.

Today's G-20 meeting has been advertised as a showdown between the U.S. and Europe over more spending "stimulus," and so it is. But the larger story is the end of the neo-Keynesian economic moment, and perhaps the start of a healthier policy turn. For going on three years, the developed world's economic policy has been dominated by the revival of the old idea that vast amounts of public spending could prevent deflation, cure a recession, and ignite a new era of government-led prosperity. It hasn't turned out that way.

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Nearly 1 in 3 U.S. Q1 home sales a foreclosure
Foreclosure homes accounted for 31 percent of all residential sales in the first quarter of 2010, with the average sales price of properties that sold while in some stage of foreclosure nearly 27 percent below homes that were not in the process, Irvine, California-based RealtyTrac said.

"In a normal market, only 1 to 2 percent of home sales are foreclosures, so this is certainly a significant level," Rick Sharga, senior vice president at RealtyTrac, said in an interview.

Total U.S. foreclosure sales in 2009 were up more than 1,100 percent from 2006 and more than 2,500 percent from 2005. Foreclosure sales accounted for 29 percent of all sales in 2009, up from 23 percent in 2008 and a mere 6 percent in 2007, the real estate data company said.

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Op donderdag 1 juli 2010 10:45 schreef Perrin het volgende:
http://www.youtube.com/v/qOP2V_np2c0

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Op donderdag 1 juli 2010 18:44 schreef Irian.Jaya het volgende:

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Leuk filmpje. Meer iets voor Youtube kredietcrisis topic

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back to yahoo finance add to my yahoo back to cake

It seems so, if you read the latest from the Financial Times (hat tip Marshall Auerback):

Iceland’s banking sector is facing a fresh wave of losses after a court ruling raised doubts over the legality of billions of dollars of loans.

But here’s the thing. The Supreme Court outlawed loans tied to foreign exchange rates and that is going to have some serious implications.

Financial authorities in Reykjavik have been scrambling for the past two weeks to work out the implications of a landmark Supreme Court judgment outlawing car loans indexed to foreign exchange rates.

Gunnar Andersen, director of the Financial Supervisory Authority, told the Financial Times that Icelandic banks faced "deep trouble" if the verdict was applied to all forms of consumer and corporate credit linked to foreign currencies.

The court decision has been described as one of the most important events in Iceland since the 2008 bank crash, potentially reducing the repayment burden on thousands of households holding foreign-indexed debt while threatening the financial system with renewed turmoil.

The implications are likely to stretch beyond Reykjavik to foreign creditors, including Royal Bank of Scotland and several German institutions, which took control of a large swathe of Iceland’s banking sector after the crisis.

The court ruled that car loans paid out and collected in Icelandic krónur but indexed to foreign currencies violated laws designed to protect borrowers from exchange rate risks.

Someone’s going to take some serious losses here – and you can bet it’s the Icelandic banks first and foremost. Many are now controlled by foreign banks. But since Iceland has a miniscule population of only 300,000. It really shouldn’t affect other economies.

Is this a legally-sanctioned form of debt repudiation? And is this the route that others in Eastern Europe will take when their banking crises become more severe? And since the banks there are owned by western European banks it would mean losses an order of magnitude higher than in Iceland. Hungary is the first country that comes to mind. Read this for example.

I don’t know about you, but I am sick of all of this doom and gloom right now. I am pretty happy to watch the World Cup, drink beer and forget all about the economy this weekend.

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Ex-IKB Chief Ortseifen Convicted in Trial Over Subprime Risks

July 14 (Bloomberg) -- Former IKB Deutsche Industriebank AG chief executive officer Stefan Ortseifen was convicted today for market manipulation and received a 10-month suspended sentence and a penalty of 100,000 euros ($127,000), to be paid to charities.

Ortseifen is the first German bank executive convicted over the financial crisis. He faced claims he misled investors by downplaying effect of the looming U.S. subprime crisis in a press release on July 20, 2007. IKB received a bailout package 10 days later and subsequently got as much as 12 billion euros ($15.3 billion) in guarantees from Germany’s bank-rescue fund.

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Congress approves Basel III before it even exists
Assistant Treasury secretary Mike Barr celebrated the passage of the financial reform bill today by phoning me up for a chat. So of course I asked him how much has really been achieved, and how much the really important stuff has been left to the Basel III negotiation process.

Barr said that the reforms passed today “were absolutely essential to the process,” and added something I didn’t know before — which is that they include Congressional authority for regulators to adopt all the Basel III standards. In other words, there’s no risk of Basel III getting caught up in Congressional opposition, as Basel II did. Once it’s agreed in Switzerland, US regulators are free to implement it immediately. “We got all the authority that we needed in this legislation that just passed,” Barr said. “The regulatory community will be ready to implement it in the US.”

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Op dinsdag 29 juni 2010 00:05 schreef BigPimp het volgende:
De geldpersen kunnen 't niet meer bijhouden. .

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With the US trapped in depression, this really is starting to feel like 1932
The US workforce shrank by 652,000 in June, one of the sharpest contractions ever. The rate of hourly earnings fell 0.1pc. Wages are flirting with deflation.

"The economy is still in the gravitational pull of the Great Recession," said Robert Reich, former US labour secretary. "All the booster rockets for getting us beyond it are failing."

"Home sales are down. Retail sales are down. Factory orders in May suffered their biggest tumble since March of last year. So what are we doing about it? Less than nothing," he said.

Let us be honest. The US is still trapped in depression a full 18 months into zero interest rates, quantitative easing (QE), and fiscal stimulus that has pushed the budget deficit above 10pc of GDP.

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The U.S. Economy Is A Dead Horse And The American People Are Starting To Get Really Pissed Off And Frustrated
The economic frustration of the American people is reaching a fever pitch. Millions of Americans can't seem to get a good job no matter what they do. Millions of others are working as hard as they can but find that they keep coming up short at the end of the month. Record numbers of Americans are still going bankrupt. Record numbers of Americans are still losing their homes.

Meanwhile, the U.S. economy is a dead horse at this point. It just doesn't have any more to give. At this point the U.S. economy is like an aging rock star that requires larger and larger doses of drugs each night just to be able to perform. The U.S. economy is addicted to "drugs" such as debt and government stimulus, and years ago those things really supercharged the U.S. economic system, but at this point they aren't provoking much of a response at all. In fact, the things that once "stimulated" the economy are now slowly killing it. But the vast majority of the American people do not understand this. All they know is that the economy is broken and they want someone to "fix" it.

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Op zondag 18 juli 2010 13:07 schreef fedsingularity het volgende:

Waar zijn de greenshoots?

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Op maandag 19 juli 2010 18:30 schreef BigPimp het volgende:
Goudmarkt een bubble?

De wereldwijde goudmarkt is 5 miljard ounces groot. Als je het zo stelt, is er minder dan 1 ounce goud beschikbaar voor iedere bewoner van deze planeet!

Vijf miljard ounces aan $1.200 per ounce, dan spreek je over een omvang van $6.000 miljard of $6 biljoen.

Groot? Vergelijk het dan eens even met de $46 biljoen die geïnvesteerd werd in aandelen of de $82 biljoen in obligaties.


Amper 4% van de beschikbare middelen zit momenteel in goud. In 1982 was dat maar liefst 17%. Toen was er inderdaad sprake van een bubbel.

Om vandaag aan 17% te geraken, moet de prijs stijgen naar minimaal $5.000.

En dat is precies wat zal gebeuren indien meer beleggers een deel van hun aandelen en obligaties verkopen om te diversifiëren richting goud.

De goudmarkt is een lilliputter in vergelijking met de andere activaklassen. Indien beleggers besluiten om 10% van hun obligaties in te ruilen voor goud, dan zit je met een extra vraag van $8,2 biljoen.

Stel je even voor wat er met de prijs gebeurt wanneer er $8,2 biljoen belegd moet worden in een markt die amper $5 biljoen groot is!

En in feite is de goudmarkt veel kleiner dan die $5 biljoen waarover ik het hier heb. Analisten schatten dat amper één vijfde - of $1 biljoen - beschikbaar is voor beleggers. De rest van het goud zit verwerkt in juwelen of opgeslagen in de kluizen van centrale banken.

Het moet eigenlijk allemaal nog beginnen voor goud. Er is pas sprake van een echte goudhysteria wanneer andere activaklassen geliquideerd worden en vluchten in goud.

Pas dan kan je je de vraag stellen of goud een zeepbel is. Maar vooraleer dat "probleem" zich stelt, spreek je over koersen van minimaal $5.000.

Interessante analyse. Heeft de auteur hierin gelijk?

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Op maandag 19 juli 2010 18:30 schreef BigPimp het volgende:
Goudmarkt een bubble?
Amper 4% van de beschikbare middelen zit momenteel in goud. In 1982 was dat maar liefst 17%. Toen was er inderdaad sprake van een bubbel.

Om vandaag aan 17% te geraken, moet de prijs stijgen naar minimaal $5.000.