Bulls, Bears & Bucks #56: Geithner's plan in werking

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Op maandag 30 maart 2009 18:12 schreef Lemmeb het volgende:

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Ik heb het ook overwogen, maar een aantal maanden in de stress zitten of je je geld wel terugkrijgt als NIBC er niet meer is, was mij het niet waard.

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Op maandag 30 maart 2009 23:17 schreef pberends het volgende:
NIBC krijgt weer 1,5 miljard van Bos

Toch maar even een FP-berichtje.

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Why Obama’s Stimulus Package Is Doomed to Failure
The paper mill on the Potomac is furiously spewing up new money. According to the manager of the mill, as indeed according to the Quantity Theory of Money, this should stop prices from falling and the economy from contracting.

In this article I present an argument why this conclusion is not valid. On the contrary, I shall show that new money created on the strength of a flood of new debt, is tantamount to pouring gasoline on the fire, making prices fall and the economy contract even more. The Obama administration has missed its historic opportunity to stop the deflation and depression inherited from the Bush administration because it entrusted the same people with the task of damage-control who had caused the disaster in the first place: the Keynesian and Friedmanite money doctors in the Fed and the Treasury.

The key to understanding the problem is the marginal productivity of debt, a concept curiously missing from the vocabulary of mainstream economics. Keynesians take comfort in the fact that total debt as a percentage of total GDP is safely below 100 in the United States while it is 100 and perhaps even more in some other countries. However, the significant ratio to watch is additional debt to additional GDP, or the amount of GDP contributed by the creation of $1 in new debt. It is this ratio that determines the quality of debt. Indeed, the higher the ratio, the more successful entrepreneurs are in increasing productivity, which is the only valid justification for going into debt in the first place.

Conversely, a serious fall in that ratio is a danger sign that the quality of debt is deteriorating, and contracting additional debt has no economic justification. The volume of debt is rising faster than national income, and capital supporting production is eroding fast. If, as in the worst-case scenario, the ratio falls into negative territory, the message is that the economy is on a collision course and crash in imminent. Not only does more debt add nothing to the GDP, in fact, it causes economic contraction, including greater unemployment. The country is eating the seed corn with the result that accumulated capital may be gone before you know it. Immediate action is absolutely necessary to stop the hemorrhage, or the patient will bleed to death.

Keynesians are watching the wrong ratio, that of debt-to-GDP. No wonder they constantly go astray as they miss one danger signal after another. They are sailing in the dark with the aid of the wrong navigational equipment. They are administering the wrong medicine. Their ambulance is unable to diagnose internal hemorrhage that must be stopped lest the patient be dead upon arrival.

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Op dinsdag 31 maart 2009 11:27 schreef pberends het volgende:
Eindelijk goed nieuws:
Inflatie eurozone naar laagterecord

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Wereldeconomie krimpt met 2,75% in 2009 - OESO
31-03-2009 11:29:00

AMSTERDAM (Dow Jones)--De wereldeconomie zal dit jaar met 2,75% krimpen, terwijl de wereldwijde handel met 13,2% zal afnemen. Dat zegt de Organisatie voor Economische Samenwerking en Ontwikkeling (OESO) dinsdag.

Volgens de OESO zal de Amerikaanse economie met 4% krimpen, die van de eurozone met 4,1% en de Japanse economie met 6,6%.

"De wereldeconomie bevindt zich midden in de diepste en meest gesynchroniseerde recessie in ons leven, veroorzaakt door een wereldwijde financiele crisis en versterkt door de instorting van de wereldhandel", aldus het rapport van de OESO.

In het rapport over de wereldeconomie, dat twee keer per jaar verschijnt, wordt verwacht dat de economie in 2010 weer met 1,2% zal groeien.

Maar dat zal volgens het rapport alleen gebeuren als overheden snel ingrijpen. Banksystemen moeten worden hersteld door het aanpakken van de giftige leningen, desnoods door nationalisatie.

Daarnaast zegt de OESO dat centrale banken de rente naar nul moeten brengen en bereid moeten zijn dat niveau enige tijd vast te houden. Ook zouden sommige landen extra fiscale stimulansen moeten overwegen, aldus de organisatie.

"Landen met de meeste ruimte tot fiscale maatregelen zijn Duitsland, Canada, Australie, Nederland, Zwitserland, Zuid-Korea en sommige Scandinavische landen", concludeert de OESO.

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Op dinsdag 31 maart 2009 11:50 schreef simmu het volgende:

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dat is heul geen goed nieuws pberends. da's een indicatie dat het deflatiescenario steeds waarschijnlijker wordt. aan het gedrag van beursbaby te merken is de suckerrally trouwens nog niet over. ze kruipt nog steeds niet

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Op dinsdag 31 maart 2009 13:20 schreef pberends het volgende:
Redding NL-financials kost ¤81,4 miljard

.

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Op dinsdag 31 maart 2009 13:29 schreef veekeend het volgende:

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Volgens mij klopt de titel niet. Er is dat bedrag ingepompt, maar dat is niet wat het uiteindelijk kost. Het kan hypothetisch gezien ook veel geld gaan opleveren.....

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Op dinsdag 31 maart 2009 13:30 schreef pberends het volgende:

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Blaaaaaaaaaaat.

Jij denkt dat het geld nog terugkomt niet?

Dat kan alleen met hyperinflatie. Probleem dan is dat het geld geen flikker meer waard is.

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Op dinsdag 31 maart 2009 13:46 schreef veekeend het volgende:

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Dat hoor je me niet zeggen. Ik geef alleen aan dat de titel in die zin suggestief is. Maar ik zit niet meer in de redactie, dus zal me daar ook niet mee bemoeien.

Fortis/ABN is natuurlijk zeer twijfelachtig. SNS/ING heb ik meer vertrouwen in dat dat uiteindelijk wel positief renderend voor de staat zal gaan zijn.

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Op dinsdag 31 maart 2009 11:50 schreef simmu het volgende:

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dat is heul geen goed nieuws pberends. da's een indicatie dat het deflatiescenario steeds waarschijnlijker wordt.

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Op dinsdag 31 maart 2009 18:49 schreef henkway het volgende:

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De overheid doet er trouwens goed aan mee door de lonen en uitkeringen te bevriezen en de overheidslasten te verhogen, gevolg, een steeds lager netto inkomen voor iedereen.

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Detroit: de spookstad waar een huis nog 5.500 euro kost
donderdag 19 mrt 2009

Detroit, de grootste stad in de Amerikaanse staat Michigan, is vooral bekend omdat de grote drie Amerikaanse automerken er hun hoofdkwartier hebben: Ford, General Motors en Chrysler. Maar de auto-industrie verplaatste steeds meer productie naar lagelonenlanden en deze ooit bruisende stad - ook de bakermat van techno en muzieklabel Motown- werd stilaan maar zeker een spookstad.

De afgelopen 40 jaar waren één langgerekte lijdensweg van sociale en economische crisis. 1 op 3 inwoners van de stad (en 1 op elke 2 kinderen) leeft in armoede, het gemiddelde gezinsinkomen is sinds het jaar 2000 met 24% gedaald, aldus cijfers van het Amerikaanse Census Bureau voor statistieken. 82% van de inwoners zijn zwarten, 47% zijn functioneel analfabeet, schrijft Newsweek.

En daar komt nu nog een triest record bij. De middenprijs voor een huis (median price betekent dat evenveel huizen meer kosten als er huizen zijn die minder kosten dan dit meetpunt) daalde in december tot 7.500 dollar (5.550 euro).

‘Niet 75.000 dollar', schrijft de Chicago Tribune. ‘Neen, haal een nul weg- het is zeven duizend vijfhonderd dollar, een pak minder dan de laagste prijs voor een nieuwe wagen'.

Toch is er ook goed nieuws. Detroit's moordpercentage daalde vorig jaar met 14%. Kandidaat-burgemeester Stanley Christmas: ‘Ik wil niet sarcastisch doen, maar er is gewoon niemand meer om te vermoorden.'

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Op woensdag 1 april 2009 11:58 schreef Drugshond het volgende:

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Kiss - Detroit Rock City

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Op woensdag 1 april 2009 11:58 schreef Drugshond het volgende:

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We Almost Lost Detroit

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Op woensdag 1 april 2009 12:14 schreef Zero2Nine het volgende:
Kijkt er iemand ook nog live naar de G20?

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Op dinsdag 31 maart 2009 22:41 schreef simmu het volgende:
nou, ik neem aan dat we voorlopig de inflatie/deflatie discussie niet meer hoeven te voeren? tis inmiddels ook een beetje herkauwen allemaal. ik ben wel benieuwd naar hoe lang de deflationaire periode zal gaan duren.

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The £5.88 trillion promised by governments to bail-out banks would be enough to end global extreme poverty for 50 years, charity Oxfam has claimed.
Bron

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Op donderdag 2 april 2009 13:39 schreef kortsluiting87 het volgende:
Alsof het beter was geweest om dat geld ineens beschikbaar te stellen aan de allerarmsten van deze wereld

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Op woensdag 1 april 2009 12:10 schreef Zero2Nine het volgende:

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Er zijn meerder filmpjes op youtube over de triestheid in Detroit.

We Almost Lost Detroit

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Light At The End Of The Tunnel ...



By Nouriel Roubini, 04.02.09, 12:01 AM EDT

Dim and distant, but a glimmer nonetheless!

I was interviewed on Tuesday on CNBC's "Squawk Box" on my views on the economy, the stock market, the problems with the banks, the Geithner plan and whether there's light at the end of the tunnel.

As I pointed out in the interview, the rate of economic contraction will slow from the -6% of the first quarter to a figure closer to -2%. And next year the economic recovery will be so weak--growth below 1% and the unemployment rate peaking at 10%--that it will still feel like a recession even if we may be technically out of it. So, compared with the bullish consensus that sees positive growth at 2% by the third and fourth quarters of this year and a return to potential growth by 2010, my views are consistently more bearish.

Still, compared with the sharp contraction in U.S. and global growth in the first quarter of this year, the rate of economic contraction will slow down for the U.S. and other advanced economies by year-end. That is only a mild improvement in what is still a severe U-shaped recession, with a very weak and tentative recovery by 2010.

I also pointed out on CNBC that the stock market has predicted six out of the last zero economic recoveries. For the last 18 months, we've had six bear market rallies, and at the beginning of each one of these suckers' rallies the delusional perma-bulls repeated that this was the beginning of a bull market rally. And for six times these perma-bulls were totally wrong as the rally fizzled and new lows were reached. And for six times I correctly pointed out that these were bear market rallies.

But such perma-bulls have no shame in showing up over and over again on CNBC and talking up their books and being proved wrong over and over again. As I have never been a "perma-bear," in spite of the "Dr. Doom" nickname, I will be the first one to call the bottom of this severe recession and the bottom of the bear market when I see sustained evidence of robust and consistent economic recovery.

I see the latest rally as another bear market rally, as over the next few months, the news--macro news, earnings news, financial news, corporate default news, financial firms insolvency news and so on--will be worse than expected by the consensus. Look how wobbly the stock market was on Monday when the expected news that the Big Three are in Big Trouble led to a 3% to 4% market fall. Do you listen to Tim Geithner, who says that some banks need "large amounts of assistance," and who is now pushing--like Bernanke--for fast-track Congressional approval of a law that will allow the takeover of systemically important financial institutions and bank holding companies? This market recovery has still very shaky legs, and it will continue to lurch until the U.S. and global economic recovery does occur and is more robust and sustained.

The global economic contraction is still very severe: In the Eurozone and Japan there is no evidence of "green shoots" or positive second derivatives; and in the U.S. and China such evidence is still very, very weak. So investors and markets are way ahead of actual improvements in economic data. And the idea that stock prices are forward-looking and bottom out six to nine months before the end of a recession is incorrect.

First, we've already had six bear market rallies and, despite the "prediction" of stock prices, not a single economic recovery. Second, in 2001 a short and shallow eight-month recession was over by November, but stock prices kept falling for another 16 months until March 2003. This time around, the recession will be of at least 24 months duration--three times as long and five times as deep, in terms of GDP contraction, as the one in 2001. This time the deflationary forces are global, not just in the U.S. and Japan. This time we have the worst financial and banking crisis since the Great Depression, while in 2001 there was no banking crisis. This time we've got the worst housing recession since the Great Depression, with home prices still bound to fall another 15% to 20% for a cumulative fall of 40% to 45%. This time corporate default rates on junk bonds are predicted by Moody's to peak at 20%, not the 13% of the previous recession.

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Op donderdag 2 april 2009 13:41 schreef capricia het volgende:

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Over de definitie van "beter" valt natuurlijk van mening te verschillen...beter voor wie?

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‘Green Shoots’ Overstated in Bear-Market Rally, Janjuah Says

Last Updated: April 2, 2009 09:46 EDT

April 2 (Bloomberg) -- The “green shoots” visible in the economy will have been exaggerated into “tropical rainforests” by early May and this month’s stock-market rally will end in a sell-off, according to Bob Janjuah, a strategist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc.

As the “full extent” of falling growth and earnings and rising defaults and unemployment emerges later this year, investors will grasp that policy makers aren’t winning their battle against deflation and recession, Janjuah wrote in an e- mail sent on March 31. Stocks will slump by “well over” 30 percent from their highs while bond yield premiums will surge, he wrote.

“Everyone who did not see the locomotive named Global Economic Disaster coming, even when it was staring at us inches from our noses, is now busy all over the media, telling us the worst is over, the green shoots are here,” London-based Janjuah wrote. “All we are having is a very necessary and very normal bear-market rally.”

Stocks rallied around the world today, oil and metals rose and the yen weakened as Group of 20 leaders met in London to discuss economic-stimulus plans. The cost of insuring European corporate debt in the credit-default swap market fell for the first time in five days, while the extra yield investors demand to hold corporate bonds rather than government debt narrowed, according to Merrill Lynch & Co. index data.

Bear-Market Rallies

After falling to lows in November, stocks rallied until early January, before falling again through early March. The MSCI World Index has now gained 21 percent since a 13-year low on March 9, meeting the traditional definition of a bull market. Bear markets such as the current one always have three to five rallies within them, according to Janjuah.

The strategist wrote that the Standard & Poor’s 500 index may fall to between 500 and 550 this year, from 811.08 at yesterday’s close. He also said he expects 10-year U.K. and German government bond yields to drop in the second half to 2 percent, from more than 3 percent currently. He also forecast 10-year government yields will decline to 2 percent in the U.S., from 2.69 percent. The dollar and pound are likely to weaken against the euro, he wrote.

Efforts by world leaders at the Group of 20 summit won’t help end the recession but worsen things, Janjuah wrote.

Nero, Belushi

The G-20 convened in London as some reports suggested the pace of global economic decline is easing. U.S. durable-goods orders and home sales rose in February, Chinese urban investment surged 26.5 percent in the first two months of the year and German investor confidence in March reached its highest level since July 2007. The S&P 500 last month gained the most in seven years.

“My brain defaults to a vision of a bunch of middle-aged men in togas playing their games with their toys, whilst outside the masses are in uproar,” Janjuah wrote. “Think either Nero in Ancient Rome or think” actor John “Belushi in Animal House,” he wrote.

The Financial Accounting Standards Board’s proposal to overhaul fair-value accounting that gives banks some discretion in valuing their assets, is also prejudicial, Janjuah wrote.

The change is “not only scandalous, it is doomed to fail as it raises uncertainty,” Janjuah wrote, before the FASB voted today to relax the rules. “As an investor I want more clarity and transparency, not less, when looking at financials.”

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China wil af van de dollar

1 april 2009

China wil af van de dollar als belangrijkste valuta in de wereld. De gouverneur van de Chinese centrale bank, vindt het te riskant om de wereldeconomie aan één munteenheid te koppelen. Maar welke gevolgen heeft dat voor de Euro en voor onze export? In Goedemorgen Nederland een gesprek hierover met publicist en financieel expert Willem Middelkoop.

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Op zaterdag 4 april 2009 15:32 schreef pberends het volgende:

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http://www.radio1.nl/cont(...)ollar?autostart=5194

http://download.omroep.nl(...)llar_-geen_titel.mp3