De Beursvloer #45: AEX sluit 4,3% lager na details plan

Marc Faber ger rid of your cash buy commodities while they are still cheap !!!!!!

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Buy Cisco, Intel, U.S. Technology Shares, Faber Says (Update1)

By Michael Patterson and Ken Prewitt

Feb. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Investors should buy U.S. technology stocks after prices fell near the lows reached after the dot-com crash in 2000, investor Marc Faber said.

Cisco Systems Inc., Intel Corp., Microsoft Corp. and Oracle Corp. shares will outperform U.S. Treasuries over the next five to 10 years, Faber, managing director of Hong Kong-based investment firm Marc Faber Ltd. and publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report, said in a Bloomberg Radio interview today.

“You could make a case that in the U.S. some equities have come down a lot and are inexpensive,” Faber said. “In Nasdaq stocks, in high-tech companies, we have a base-building period.”

The Nasdaq Composite Index, which gets more than 40 percent of its value from technology shares, tumbled 46 percent since October 2007 as a global recession caused businesses and consumers to cut spending on software, computers and hand-held electronics. The index closed at 1,546.24 yesterday, compared with its closing low this decade of 1,114.11 on Oct. 9, 2002.

Technology companies with the biggest cash hoards are better positioned to grow earnings when the economy rebounds because they can maintain spending on research and development, Faber said.

“In a crisis like we have now the weak competitors don’t have the money to carry out R&D, whereas the strong competitors have that money,” said Faber. “When the crisis comes to an end, the strong competitors emerge in a relatively stronger position.”

Cisco Sales

Cisco, the largest maker of networking equipment, declined 30 percent in Nasdaq trading over the past year. The San Jose, California-based company projected third-quarter sales this week that trailed analysts’ estimates as the recession forced customers worldwide to slash their budgets.

Technology spending in developed countries will fall 8 percent in 2009, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

Cisco shares climbed 3.2 percent yesterday to $16.35. Microsoft Corp., the world’s largest software maker, added 2.2 percent to $19.04. Intel, the biggest semiconductor maker, increased 2.7 percent to $14.25 and Oracle, the second-largest software maker, added 2.4 percent to $17.62.

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Dr. Doom: There's Value in Asia, Inflation in the US

One of Warren Buffett's favorite metrics is market capitalization as a percentage of gross national product. He thinks when GNP is down to about 75 percent or so, it's a good time to buy.

Marc Faber, editor and publisher of The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report tells CNBC's Asia Squawk Box that by these standards, the U.S. market is not particularly cheap.

"If you take say, the Dow Jones or the S&P in real terms, in other words, inflation adjusted or the market cap in the U.S. as a percentage of GDP... it's still close to a hundred actually, it's not at 75 (percent), and by historical standards, it’s still very high," Faber said.

Faber feels that Asian markets are far better value that U.S. equities -- you get paid to wait in Asia -- and Faber doesn't see a huge downside risk, but rather an upside potential.

"If you look at the dividend yield in Asia compared to the bond yield, it's about three times higher. So even though we will have dividend cuts for sure, I think that as a shareholder, you begin to be paid by waiting," Faber asserts.

Faber, better known as Dr. Doom, believes that there still is tremendous downside momentum in the global economy.

" ... We fell off a cliff, and now the news will remain bad, but maybe not quite as bad as over the last few months. And then the Goldilocks crowd that is always around us, and will never give up -- no matter what -- they will say now, see the global economy is improving. Let’s buy," Faber adds.

Faber also sees inflation as a major factor in the future of the U.S. economy.

"We have the Austrian school -- the school of rational expectations, monetary schools. And in the U.S., we have a totally new school, and it's called the Zimbabwae school. And it’s founded by one of the great leaders of this world, Mr. Robert Mugabe. He has managed to totally impoverish his own country. And that is the monetary policy the U.S. is pursuing. If something is going wrong, print. If it doesn’t get fixed print more. If it then goes even worse, print more."

Faber sees hyperinflation as a possible consequence of the loose monetary stance the U.S. is taking, though he doesn't believe that they are there yet.

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Op vrijdag 6 februari 2009 16:38 schreef M.Melandri het volgende:
Zijn er hier nog gokkers voor na et weekend? zit te denken aan shorts overigens...

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Op vrijdag 6 februari 2009 16:40 schreef SjonLok het volgende:

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Maandag gaan we door de 271, en dan kan dit ook weer de prullenbak in

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Op vrijdag 6 februari 2009 16:40 schreef SjonLok het volgende:

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Maandag gaan we door de 271, en dan kan dit ook weer de prullenbak in

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Op vrijdag 6 februari 2009 16:44 schreef M.Melandri het volgende:
maandag ''sell the news'' die stijgingen bij de financials gaan me weer veel te snel

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Op vrijdag 6 februari 2009 16:46 schreef pberends het volgende:

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Oh ja, die kennen we ook nog... . Ik zou iig niet long gaan, maar short ook niet.

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Op vrijdag 6 februari 2009 16:46 schreef pberends het volgende:

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Oh ja, die kennen we ook nog... . Ik zou iig niet long gaan, maar short ook niet.

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Op vrijdag 6 februari 2009 16:40 schreef sitting_elfling het volgende:

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Ik ga wel degelijk een positie innemen voor na het weekend. Wat? Dat ben ik atm. nog aan het uitvogelen.

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Op vrijdag 6 februari 2009 16:48 schreef M.Melandri het volgende:

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mwa denk dat ik klein beetje short ga, aan de markt te zien gaat iedereen al uit van een groot bankenplan...

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MARKET COMMENT: AEX hard omhoog; markt hoopt op bankenplan VS
06-02-2009 16:14:00

AMSTERDAM (Dow Jones)--De AEX stijgt vrijdagmiddag door naar meer dan 260 punten, ondanks dat de werkgelegenheid in de Verenigde Staten harder is gedaald dan verwacht. Maar "kennelijk hadden de cijfers nog veel slechter kunnen zijn", zegt handelaar Geoffrey Leloux van Keijser Capital. Volgens Leloux stijgt de beurs vooral vanwege de hoop dat maandag meer duidelijkheid komt over het plan in de VS om de financiele sector te redden. "Als de plannen maar enigszins tegenvallen, dan zakt de markt gelijk weer in elkaar", aldus de handelaar. De AEX wint vrijdag rond 16.15 uur 3,3% op 260,81 punten. (EHI)

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Op vrijdag 6 februari 2009 17:34 schreef M.Melandri het volgende:
paar shorts erin puur voor de gok....durfde eigenlijk geen richting te kiezen