Wordt Ierland de volgende dominosteen?

quote:

Markets wary of Irish debt as fresh rescue looms

Ireland's bank rescue has begun to unravel despite a blanket debt guarantee for the country's top lenders, prompting concerns that Europe's credit crisis may be entering a second and more menacing phase.

The Taoiseach, Brian Cowen, told the Irish parliament yesterday that he was exploring "all options" to shore up the banks after the collapse of their share prices over recent days.

While talk of a fresh bail-out has helped revive the battered stocks of Anglo Irish, Bank of Ireland and other lenders, it appears merely to have shifted the risk to the Irish state itself.

Michael Klawitter, a strategist at Dresdner Kleinwort, said the cost of insuring Irish sovereign debt through credit default swaps (CDS) has surged to 133 basis points. "The markets have begun to see a risk to the solvency of the Irish government. They are questioning whether it has the financial muscle to back up the guarantees," he said.

This is a disturbing pattern across Europe as the global credit crisis drags on, with extreme cases in Iceland, Ukraine, Russia, Hungary and Latvia. There are fears that investors could start to shun sovereign debt in Western states where banks have outgrown the underlying economy.

Ireland is vulnerable because financial services make up 9.8pc of GDP, including its 'Canary Dwarf' enclave of hedge funds. The liabilities of its lenders are twice Irish GDP. Britain, Switzerland, Belgium, Austria and Luxembourg are in the same boat.

Mr Cowen said the original ¤440bn (£368bn) bail-out agreed in September had been successful in containing a liquidity crisis but had since been overtaken by events in the global markets.

Officials from Ireland's treasury and central bank are scrambling to put together a new package, this time involving a direct infusion of money into the banks to raise core capital ratios to safer levels.

Dublin hopes to attract money from buy-out firms such as JC Flowers, but this is becoming ever harder as the Irish property crash plays havoc with the banks' asset books. The government may have to dip into its Pension Reserve Fund.

Ronnie O'Toole, chief economist at National Irish Bank, said construction was in free fall, dropping towards 20,000 homes a year from 90,000 at the peak of the bubble. Retail property prices have fallen 33pc and office prices have dropped 26pc.

Ulster Bank gave warning that Ireland's economy will contract by 4pc next year. As a member of the eurozone, Ireland cannot devalue or slash interest rates to cushion the downturn. Nor can it resort to a fiscal boost since the budget deficit is nearing 8pc of GDP.

Dr O'Toole said Ireland had low debt, a young population and would "get through this".

Bron: Telegraph.co.uk