Bulls, Bears & Bucks #43: Grootste stijging sinds Great Depression

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Op maandag 13 oktober 2008 22:03 schreef Nieuwschierig het volgende:
Wat zal het morgen doen met de openingskoersen van de AEX?
Moet ik de limieten van mijn orders verhogen omdat de openingsprijs daar al boven ligt?

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Op maandag 13 oktober 2008 22:08 schreef SeLang het volgende:

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Koopwaardig op basis van 2007 winstcijfers.
Maar met een ernstige recessie voor de deur wil je wat meer korting.

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Op maandag 13 oktober 2008 22:08 schreef digitaLL het volgende:

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Ha, en wie durft nog te zeggen dat aandelen en de beurs saai zijn

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Op maandag 13 oktober 2008 22:11 schreef Roel_Jewel het volgende:

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Ligt eraan waarop je hebt ingezet .
Tokyo zal vannacht nog wel flink positief reageren omdat die vandaag dicht waren.

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Op maandag 13 oktober 2008 22:16 schreef Public_NME het volgende:
Hmm...ik wil morgen misschien ook maar eens experimenteren met de turbo's (afhankelijk van Azië/de opening); het enige wat ik niet kan vinden is de verhandelde eenheid. Gaan ze net als optie contracten per 100 of gewoon per stuk?

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Morgan Stanley revised the terms of its $9 billion investment from Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc., providing the Japanese bank with preferred stock that pays a 10 percent dividend instead of common stock. Mitsubishi UFJ, Japan's biggest lender, will get 21 percent of the New York-based company as previously agreed, the two firms said today in a joint statement. The terms were renegotiated because Morgan Stanley's stock price fell 60 % last week. The transaction closed on Monday.

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Op maandag 13 oktober 2008 22:49 schreef Drugshond het volgende:
Wat ik op de radio hoorde is dat de Libor (interbancaire rente) nog niet opgelost is.
Want dat is wel een belangrijk fundament achter deze crisis.
Waar kan ik die chart vinden ?! When found.... die hoort nu ook in de OP.

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Op maandag 13 oktober 2008 22:49 schreef Drugshond het volgende:
Wat ik op de radio hoorde is dat de Libor (interbancaire rente) nog niet opgelost is.
Want dat is wel een belangrijk fundament achter deze crisis.
Waar kan ik die chart vinden ?! When found.... die hoort nu ook in de OP.

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Libor Dollar Rates Drop After Governments Step Up Bank Rescues

By Gavin Finch

Oct. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Money-market rates in London fell after policy makers offered banks unlimited dollar funding and European governments pledged to take ``all necessary steps'' to shore up confidence among lenders.

The London interbank offered rate, or Libor, for three-month dollar loans dropped 7 basis points to 4.75 percent today, tied for the largest drop since March 17, the British Bankers' Association said. The one-month dollar rate declined to 4.56 percent, while the one-week euro rate fell to 4.34 percent, the BBA said. There was no overnight dollar price today because of the Columbus Day holiday in the U.S.

The Federal Reserve said today central banks around the world will offer as much dollar funding as required. Leaders of the 15 nations using the common currency agreed yesterday to guarantee new debt from financial institutions and use taxpayers' money to keep lenders afloat. The three-month rate banks charge for euro loans dropped by the most since Dec. 28.

``Taken together, the latest moves increase the chances that we will begin to see some relaxation of the intense funding stresses that have prevailed in commercial paper and inter-bank markets,'' a team including Dominic Wilson, senior global economist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in New York, wrote in an investor report today. ``This is because bank solvency risk should decline as the government offers protection.''

Markets Frozen

Credit markets remained frozen last week even as policy makers jointly cut interest rates for the first time since 2001 and continued to inject cash into the banking system. The Group of Seven nations pledged measures at the weekend to stem a market panic that sent the MSCI World Index of stocks plunging 20 percent last week. Stocks rallied today, with the index jumping the most since Sept. 19.

The Fed, ECB, Bank of England and Swiss National Bank will hold one-week, one-month and three-month dollar auctions at a fixed interest rate, the Washington-based Fed said on its Web site today. Central banks ``can provide U.S. dollar funding in quantities sufficient to meet their demand'' into 2009, it said.

Three firms are finalists to be the U.S. Treasury's ``master custodian'' for Secretary Henry Paulson's program to aide financial institutions, Treasury Assistant Secretary Neel Kashkari said. Paulson's program to buy equity in these companies will be optional and aimed at ``healthy'' firms, Kashkari, who oversees the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program, said in Washington today. The selected firm will be announced within 24 hours and will serve as the program's prime contractor, he said.

Loan Guarantees

The three-month dollar rate is still 325 basis points more than the Fed's target of 1.5 percent. The difference was a record 332 basis points on Oct. 10. The rate was 82 basis points more than the Fed's target on Sept. 15, the day Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. collapsed.

``Policy officials have won this fight, but not the war,'' said Lena Komileva, head of G7 Market Economics at Tullett Prebon Plc in London. ``Risks remain and it's crucial that governments move ahead with recapitalization and the introduction of bank debt guarantees soon. It is early days still, but the freeze is starting to thaw.''

France, Germany, Spain and Austria today committed 1.1 trillion euros ($1.5 trillion) to guarantee bank loans and take stakes in banks equal to 3 percent of their economies, racing to prevent the collapse of the financial system.

Germany has pledged 400 billion euros in loan guarantees and set aside 20 billion euros to cover potential losses. It will also provide as much as 80 billion euros to recapitalize banks. France will guarantee 320 billion euros of bank debt and set up a fund that could spend up to 40 billion euros. Spain's government will guarantee up to 100 billion euros of bank debt and buy shares in banks in need of capital.

`Restore Faith'

``Extraordinary measures are necessary under such extraordinary market conditions,'' the German Finance Ministry said in an e-mailed statement. ``The central task is to restore faith between market participants.''

In Hong Kong, where the government has refrained from guaranteeing bank debt, interbank lending rates stayed at the highest in a year. The three-month rate climbed 3 basis points to 4.44 percent. Singapore's three-month dollar loan rate increased for a fifth day, rising more than 5 basis points to 4.79 percent. That's the highest since Dec. 27.

The dollar Libor-OIS spread, a gauge of demand for cash, narrowed 4 basis points to 360 basis points. It was at 105 basis points on Sept. 15. The spread was 24 basis points on Jan. 24.

Guessing Libor

Libor, set by 16 banks in a survey conducted by the BBA each day in London, determines rates on $360 trillion of financial products worldwide, from home loans to derivatives. Member banks provide estimates on how much it would cost to borrow in 10 currencies for terms between one day and a year.

While the estimates that go into Libor used to be based on actual transactions between banks, they have become little more than guesswork since credit markets froze, three people with knowledge of how interbank rates are set said last week.

The difference between what banks and the Treasury pay to borrow money for three months, the so-called TED spread, narrowed 7 basis points to 457 basis points, down from the most since Bloomberg began tracking the data in 1984.

To contact the reporters on this story: Gavin Finch in London at gfinch@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: October 13, 2008 12:54 EDT

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Op maandag 13 oktober 2008 22:59 schreef Hertog_Martin het volgende:
350 'euro' winst vandaag met m'n speelportfolio bij binck... had echte harde euros moeten zijn want ik had diezelfde beleggingen voor het echie willen doen vandaag maar rekening is nog niet open

35% rendement

En zodra ik echt kan gaan beleggen zijn dit soort kansjes verkeken Hierdoor hoop ik eigenlijk dat alles morgen weer net zo hard naar beneden knalt zodat ik er de volgende keer wel op tijd bij ben met echt geld

Dit had ik gekozen:

Fondsen in EUR

KPN NV (Kon.)
Royal Dutch Shell A

Fondsen in USD

Apple Inc.
Electronic Arts Inc.
General Electric Co.
Morgan Stanley Co.

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Op maandag 13 oktober 2008 22:59 schreef Hertog_Martin het volgende:


35% rendement

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Op maandag 13 oktober 2008 23:13 schreef JustJap het volgende:

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belangrijker is dat persoonlijke rijkdom

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Op maandag 13 oktober 2008 23:14 schreef Public_NME het volgende:

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Je moet trouwens ook rekening houden met de transactie kosten, als je gaat beleggen in bijv. NYC zijn er hogere transactiekosten aan verbonden, wat voor mij al snel terughoudend maakt.

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Ludwig von Mises now turning in his grave

The AP headline blares "European governments offer $2 trillion for banks", making U.S. efforts to cure what ails credit and financial markets look wimpy by comparison.

Will it work? Who knows? So far, so good.

Stock markets are soaring all around the world, a discernible easing is now being seen in credit markets, and some small level of confidence is returning.

European governments say they are putting nearly $2 trillion on the line to protect the continent's banks through guarantees and other emergency measures.

Pledges by Britain, Germany, France, Spain, Austria and Portugal in recent days have reached a total of $1.96 trillion. The sums are considered a maximum, and might not all be spent if the financial crisis eases.

Many of the pledges came Monday, a day after the 15 nations that use the euro currency agreed on an unprecedented bank rescue plan.

It is as if there is an infinite supply of money and credit on which to draw.

Well, actually, there is no upper limit on the amount of money and credit that the world's central bankers and politicians can summon to help make things better.

Ludwig von Mises must be turning in his grave.


Some excerpts from The Theory of Money and Credit:

"The essence of a credit-expansion boom is not overinvestment, but investment in wrong lines, i.e., malinvestment."

"What is needed for a sound expansion of production is additional capital goods, not money or fiduciary media. The credit boom is built on the sands of banknotes and deposits. It must collapse."

"If the credit expansion is not stopped in time, the boom turns into the crack-up boom; the flight into real values begins, and the whole monetary system founders."

"Credit expansion is the governments’ foremost tool in their struggle against the market economy. In their hands it is the magic wand designed to conjure away the scarcity of capital goods, to lower the rate of interest or to abolish it altogether, to finance lavish government spending, to expropriate the capitalists, to contrive everlasting booms, and to make everybody prosperous."

"The final outcome of the credit expansion is general impoverishment."

Obviously, the world's firefighters are now much too busy putting out the raging fires to worry about any water damage that might result.

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Op maandag 13 oktober 2008 23:17 schreef Public_NME het volgende:

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Hier moet je dus heel erg mee uitkijken... Je moet niet denken dat opeens de zilvervloot binnenkomt varen. Persoonlijk streven voor mij is om hoger rendement te maken dan een spaarrekening (hoewel het voor dit jaar aardig aan diggelen is haha...)

Als je erg offensief gaat beleggen kan je natuurlijk knalhard op je smoel gaan; hoog rendement=hoog risico.

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Op maandag 13 oktober 2008 23:03 schreef SeLang het volgende:

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Maar ik weet ook geen grafiekje hoe het verloopt in de tijd.
Je kunt de huidige stand wel zien op Bloomberg

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Op dinsdag 14 oktober 2008 02:22 schreef Bolkesteijn het volgende:
Nikkei:
[ afbeelding ]

Kopen, kopen, kopen. [ afbeelding ]

En nu.

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Op dinsdag 14 oktober 2008 03:26 schreef Llotyhy het volgende:
Is er trouwens al nieuws over Fortis?

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Op dinsdag 14 oktober 2008 05:35 schreef indahnesia.com het volgende:

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tja, achteraf he

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Op dinsdag 14 oktober 2008 02:22 schreef Bolkesteijn het volgende:
Nikkei:
[ afbeelding ]

Kopen, kopen, kopen. [ afbeelding ]

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Op dinsdag 14 oktober 2008 03:26 schreef Llotyhy het volgende:
Is er trouwens al nieuws over Fortis?

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Op dinsdag 14 oktober 2008 08:54 schreef ItaloDancer het volgende:

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Tering, leggen ze daar bij elke 2% de handel even stil?

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Op dinsdag 14 oktober 2008 08:57 schreef Basp1 het volgende:

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Bij te grote dalingen worden beursen ook stilgelegd dus waarom niet bij te grote stijgingen? Het klinkt eigenlijk niet maar dan logisch, maar aanzien de only way up is bij bellegers zal het wel niet zo zijn.

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Op dinsdag 14 oktober 2008 08:57 schreef Basp1 het volgende:

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Bij te grote dalingen worden beursen ook stilgelegd dus waarom niet bij te grote stijgingen? Het klinkt eigenlijk niet maar dan logisch, maar aanzien de only way up is bij bellegers zal het wel niet zo zijn.

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Op dinsdag 14 oktober 2008 09:01 schreef Roel_Jewel het volgende:

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Mwah... Niet logisch dat ze de handel dan stilleggen. Wat is het risico van te grote stijgingen?

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Op dinsdag 14 oktober 2008 09:40 schreef Roel_Jewel het volgende:
Fortis gaat rond 2,00 euro openen aan 't orderboek te zien? http://www.eurobench.com/koersen/Fortis/11766/snapshot.aspx