Bulls, Bears & Bucks #40: Dow breekt ook door 8000

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``We have reached the panic stage,'' said Espen Furnes, an Oslo-based fund manager at Storebrand Asset Management, which has the equivalent of $48 billion. ``This is worse than 1987 because then it was largely confined to the stock market, with limited effects on the underlying economy. Fundamentals don't count anymore.''

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``The wheels of commerce have effectively seized up,'' said Kate Schapiro, who oversees $250 million in equities at Sentinel Asset Management in San Francisco. ``Trapped by the fear of losing everything, we're seeing one-sided selling.''

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``It's very clearly a crash,'' Jim Rogers, chairman of Singapore-based Rogers Holdings, said in a Bloomberg Television interview. ``People are selling everything no matter what the fundamentals. It's forced liquidation.''

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``A very dangerous mix has taken place in the money and credit markets and hedge funds are clearly withdrawing flows from equities,'' said Francisco Salvador, director at Venture Finanzas SA in Madrid. ``We are waiting for some rational order to be restored, and very abrupt sell-offs are always followed by abrupt rebounds, but meanwhile we'll see panic.''

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Chief Executive Officer Domenico Scala, the former Syngenta AG executive brought in to replace Heliane Canepa in July 2007, said Aug. 11 there were ``encouraging initial signs'' of recovery and that the worst might be over in the U.S. market.

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Op vrijdag 10 oktober 2008 12:50 schreef Llotyhy het volgende:
Oostenrijk vliegt naar beneden... echt de meest vreemde beurs die we hebben in Europa... :p Stonden juist de hele dag best 'aardig' nog...

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Cost of U.S. Crisis Action Is Growing, Along With Debt, Deficit

By Matthew Benjamin

Oct. 10 (Bloomberg) -- The global financial crisis is turning into a bigger drain on the U.S. federal budget than experts estimated two weeks ago, increasing the deficit and the national debt.

Bailouts of American International Group, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac likely will be more expensive than expected. States are turning to Washington for fiscal help. The Federal Reserve said this week it will begin buying commercial paper, the short- term loans companies used to conduct day-to-day business, further increasing costs. And analysts now say the $700 billion bank- rescue plan passed by Congress last week may have to be significantly larger.

``I always assumed they would be asking for more money along the way if it was necessary, and it looks like it's going to be necessary,'' said Stan Collender, a former analyst for the House and Senate budget committees, now at Qorvis Communications in Washington. ``At the moment, there's nothing happening here that's positive for the budget. Nothing.''

The 2009 budget deficit could be close to $2 trillion, or 12.5 percent of gross domestic product, more than twice the record of 6 percent set in 1983, according to David Greenlaw, Morgan Stanley's chief economist. Two weeks ago, budget analysts said the measures might push deficit to as much as $1.5 trillion.

Yields to Rise

That means a lot more borrowing by Treasury, which will push up interest rates, said Greenlaw. ``The Treasury's going to be ramping up supply dramatically over the course of coming months to meet this enormous federal budget obligation,'' Greenlaw told Bloomberg this week. ``The supply will trigger some elevation in yields.''

Payments the government allocated to keep vital companies solvent are beginning to look insufficient.

AIG, the giant insurance company that was taken over by the government in mid-September, said this week it may access $37.8 billion from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, in addition to the $85 billion the government already loaned it to stave off bankruptcy.

``You're in for a dime, you're in for a dollar on this one,'' said David Havens, a credit analyst at UBS AG.

The financial health and earnings prospects of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac -- seized by the government on Sept. 7 to prevent them from failing -- worsened in the second and third quarters, the companies' government regulator said this week.

Price Declines

The companies and regulators are recalculating the value of all of their assets to factor in price erosion. That may mean the government will have to spend more to keep the firms solvent.

Earlier this week the Fed announced it will create a special fund to buy commercial paper, the credit that businesses use to finance payrolls and other ongoing expenses. The Treasury will deposit money into the Fed's New York district bank to help set up the new unit. A Fed official said Treasury funding for the program could be ``substantial.''

California, Alabama and Massachusetts are urging the Fed and Treasury to include their securities in rescue plans designed for banks and businesses. The $2.66 trillion U.S. market for state and city bonds has been all but frozen since Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., weighed down by losses in mortgage-backed bonds, declared history's largest bankruptcy on Sept. 15.

California has said it needs to sell as much as $7 billion in notes to maintain its schools, health system and other public services. The Bush administration said it is reviewing the states' financial positions.

Plan for Banks

Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson indicated two days ago that he is considering buying stakes in a wide range of banks in coming weeks to help recapitalize them.

Such a move is allowed under the $700 billion bailout package Congress passed last week. Edmund Phelps, winner of the 2006 Nobel Prize for economics and a professor at Columbia University, said such action is necessary -- and will likely turn out to increase the measure's cost. Spending beyond the amount set in last week's bill would require further Congressional approval.

``We have to recapitalize the banks,'' Phelps told Bloomberg Television this week. ``I don't imagine that there's enough money in the first Paulson plan to be able to do all that needs to be done in that direction.''

The additional borrowing could push the national debt well past 70 percent of GDP, the highest since the immediate aftermath of World War II, when the U.S. was still paying off war debt.

Debt Limit

Gross U.S. debt, which includes debt held by the public and by government agencies, this year reached about $9.6 trillion, or about 68 percent of gross domestic product. The rescue legislation increased the government's debt limit to more than $11.3 trillion from $10.6 trillion.

On top of all that, budget watchdogs say the sheer size of the interventions is making Washington more profligate than usual. To attract votes in Congress, leaders added several costly items to the $700 billion rescue, including extensions of some tax credits and tax breaks for makers of wooden arrows and stock-car racetrack owners.

Under normal circumstances, there would have been more resistance to such expenses, said Robert Bixby, executive director of the Concord Coalition, a non-partisan budget watchdog.

The rescue legislation ``creates a mask for all sorts of fiscal irresponsibility,'' said Bixby. ``It covers up a multitude of sins.''

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Op vrijdag 10 oktober 2008 12:54 schreef Liewec het volgende:
Ik vraag me af... wat zou Johan Cruijff over de kredietkrisis zeggen?

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Op vrijdag 10 oktober 2008 12:54 schreef Liewec het volgende:
Ik vraag me af... wat zou Johan Cruijff over de kredietkrisis zeggen?

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Op vrijdag 10 oktober 2008 12:58 schreef xFriendx het volgende:

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'Elk aandeel heb z'n nadeel'

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Barclays Won't Take Losses on Lehman Settlements (Update1)

By Ben Livesey

Oct. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Barclays Plc, the U.K.'s second- biggest bank, said it won't take losses on the auction today to settle contracts that protected Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. bondholders against a default.

The Lehman auction, which starts at 10:30 a.m. in New York, may force sellers of credit-default swaps to make payouts after more than 350 banks and investors agreed to settle the contracts. Financial institutions worldwide may face a bill of as much as $400 billion after the Lehman auction, said Sandy Chen, a London- based analyst at Panmure Gordon & Co.

``Barclays has no net exposure,'' a spokesman said today. ``In fact, in the close out, the market probably owes us a small amount of money.''

Barclays, which bought Lehman's U.S. investment banking assets for $250 million after the New York-based bank declared bankruptcy last month, fell in London trading the most since Bloomberg data started in 1988. The stock was down 20 percent to 192.8 pence at 11:35 a.m. in London, valuing the bank at about 16 billion pounds ($27 billion.)

The auction will establish the value of the cash settlement that sellers of CDS contract on Lehman must pay their counterparties. The settlements could lead to ``significant writedowns,'' Chen said.

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Op vrijdag 10 oktober 2008 12:50 schreef simmu het volgende:
oh, ik kan het niet weerstaan
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en er kwam snel vaag iets voorbij over hedgefondsen die zich aan het terugtrekken zijn
maar geen zorgen:
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Op vrijdag 10 oktober 2008 13:01 schreef superworm het volgende:
Rond dit tijdstip roept er altijd wel iemand "HEE KIJK VOLGENS MIJ GAAN WE IN HET GROEN EINDIGEN!!!111!!"

Wie biedt?

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Op vrijdag 10 oktober 2008 13:01 schreef superworm het volgende:
Rond dit tijdstip roept er altijd wel iemand "HEE KIJK VOLGENS MIJ GAAN WE IN HET GROEN EINDIGEN!!!111!!"

Wie biedt?

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Op vrijdag 10 oktober 2008 12:54 schreef Liewec het volgende:
Ik vraag me af... wat zou Johan Cruijff over de kredietkrisis zeggen?

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Op vrijdag 10 oktober 2008 12:50 schreef Llotyhy het volgende:
Oostenrijk vliegt naar beneden... echt de meest vreemde beurs die we hebben in Europa... :p Stonden juist de hele dag best 'aardig' nog...

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Op vrijdag 10 oktober 2008 13:06 schreef Dulk het volgende:
ik heb trouwens een collega en hij vertelde me gisteravond heel trots, dat hij aandelen fortis heeft gekocht toen ze op 5,41 stonden, en hij is er stellig van overtuigd dat ze alleen maar omhoog kunnen en hij hoopt nog voor het eind van het jaar.

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Op vrijdag 10 oktober 2008 13:08 schreef Roel_Jewel het volgende:

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Anton z'n aandelen aan 't verkopen zeker.

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Op vrijdag 10 oktober 2008 12:32 schreef Swetsenegger het volgende:

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Toch gek dat ruwe olie bijna 50% gedaald is en de benzineprijs pas 8%

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Op vrijdag 10 oktober 2008 12:35 schreef simmu het volgende:
maar ligt het nu aan mij, of duikelen de nederlandse banken & verzekeraars over elkaar heen om te melden dat ze niks nodig hebben dank u zeer?

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Op vrijdag 10 oktober 2008 13:11 schreef Llotyhy het volgende:
Voor hoeveel zou een aandeel Fortis trouwens gaan nu als hij zou mogen worden verhandeld?

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*Euronext: geen sprake van tijdelijk sluiten beurs

(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires
October 10, 2008 07:12 ET (11:12 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2008 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

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Op vrijdag 10 oktober 2008 13:14 schreef Tweeke het volgende:

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Op vrijdag 10 oktober 2008 13:20 schreef indahnesia.com het volgende:

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Dan kwam die rook een week geleden toch van Aegon....

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Op vrijdag 10 oktober 2008 13:01 schreef superworm het volgende:
Rond dit tijdstip roept er altijd wel iemand "HEE KIJK VOLGENS MIJ GAAN WE IN HET GROEN EINDIGEN!!!111!!"

Wie biedt?

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BinckBank-CEO ziet clienten weer actiever worden

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Op vrijdag 10 oktober 2008 13:27 schreef ItaloDancer het volgende:

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Groen vind ik te veel van het goede. Ik verwacht wel dat de Dow vanavond (mogelijk vanmiddag al) in het groen gaat. De AEX zal dat denk ik nog niet redden.

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Op vrijdag 10 oktober 2008 13:27 schreef ItaloDancer het volgende:

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Groen vind ik te veel van het goede. Ik verwacht wel dat de Dow vanavond (mogelijk vanmiddag al) in het groen gaat. De AEX zal dat denk ik nog niet redden.

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Op vrijdag 10 oktober 2008 13:28 schreef ItaloDancer het volgende:

LOL !

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Op vrijdag 10 oktober 2008 13:35 schreef Llotyhy het volgende:
http://cgi.ebay.com/Own-your-own-country-Republic-of-Iceland-NO-RESERVE_W0QQitemZ140274186645QQcmdZViewItem?hash=item140274186645&_trkparms=72%3A1424%7C39%3A1%7C66%3A2%7C65%3A12%7C240%3A1318&_trksid=p3286.c0.m14

Hehe, op RTL7 net... Ships to: Will arrange for local pickup only (no shipping). LOL!

En onderaan: Check back next week for: United States of America, Great Britain, and more!

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Op vrijdag 10 oktober 2008 13:36 schreef SjonLok het volgende:

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Is dat raar?

Ik denk dat 't wel verklaarbaar is. We zitten nu meer dan 50% onder de laatste piek en zijn al een jaar aan het dalen.

De AEX stond in 1996 en in 2003 ook eens rond 250. Binnen vier jaar stond de AEX toen hoger dan 500. Dat zijn echt ziekelijke rendementen.

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Op vrijdag 10 oktober 2008 13:46 schreef jpjedi het volgende:

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