Olieprijs op 55 dollar; OPEC verlaagt productie

quote:

The Energy Report for Friday, October 10th 2008

Go ahead, make my day. OPEC calls an emergency OPEC meeting for November 18th hinting that they may cut production and the oil market laughed in their face. Why would the markets take OPEC seriously when the economic dominoes are crashing down around the globe.

Some OPEC members are living in a dream world where they think that a production cut at this point might actually matter. The global credit crisis and the global market meltdown will have little sympathy for many OPEC countries that squandered their years of record profits and became more dependent on constantly rising oil profits. Once again in the quest for the political and economic power that comes from oil, comes another seismic shift away from the oil producing countries again back to the consumers.

First of all assuming that the hawkish members of the cartel can get the Saudis to agree to cut production is highly likely due to the price spike that would surely be soon to follow and thereby cause more economic pain. Many major purchases of oil usually rely on some type of bank credit anyway and it will be harder to get that credit even if you want to buy the oil. Higher prices and the lack of available credit will slow demand even more and OPEC oil producers desperate for cash will cheat on production in a desperate attempt to hang onto declining world market share. In fact this credit crisis will become so bad for oil demand that even if you have nightmares because you believe in the peak oil theory, demand declines should help you sleep well for a few mores decades or so.

Of course this will be a bitter pill for the oil producers to take that had become intoxicated with power as the result of high oil prices. Guys like Vladimir Putin in Russia and Hugo Chavez in Venezuela and Ahmadinejad in Iran that all rode into power surrounding the circumstances of a global economic growth oil price fed boom will be exposed for the real nothings that they are. The oil pendulum has started to swing the other way and will knock these guys on their backside and OPEC members will turn on each other and start eating their own in a desperate fight for economic survival. When you’re whole economy and the building blocks of your political power is tied to high oil prices you will rise and fall with the price.

OPEC’s best move at this point would be to pump as much oil as they can to try to save the economy from a meltdown so they could then have a chance to sell oil at a higher price in the future. Of course desperate men do desperate things and these are desperate times.

quote:

"The concept of alternative energy has a lot of momentum," said Dan Pickering, head of research for Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities in Houston. "But lower oil prices make it harder to justify investment. At $50 a barrel, a lot of that investment will die."

But even if oil doesn't fall that far amid global economic woes, access to capital for new ventures is tough to get despite the sector's political popularity, Pickering said after giving a presentation at an alternative energy forum sponsored by Ernst & Young.

quote:

Why would the price of oil be dropping when supply is in an overall trend of decline if demand is robustly rising?
Well, the world is rapidly changing, and it may be that the economic decline of the US, with the accompanying decline in consumption, and therefore lowering of the demand for oil and its products, is impacting on the world oil markets. Declining demand may be lowering the level of oil scarcity and so allowing the crude prices to fall (Reuters, 2008).

The subprime mortgage industry meltdown, and its knock-on effects, may yet prove to be titanic in their full implications. The full debt problem in the US is so vast and huge, it is almost beyond comprehension.

quote:

Op maandag 13 oktober 2008 10:18 schreef RM-rf het volgende:
laat nu net de 'peak-oil' theorie in eerste instantie weinig te maken hebben met een theorie over een piek in de prijs...
De 'peak-oil' theorie gaat vooral (eigenlijk vrijwel alleen) over het aanbod, en ziet dat aanbod als een soort van absolute variabele dat een gelijkmatige stijging kent, die stijging vervolgens afvlakt en een 'piek' bereikt en daarna langzaam afneemt'.... een produktieverloop wat inderdaad overeenkomt met de afname over één bron of olieveld bezien... veel aanhangers van de 'peak-oil' theorie zien zulk een aanbod-verloop ook over het olieaanbod in zijn algemeen, dus als je _alle_ oliebronnen(olievelden samen neemt...

quote:

daarbij negeren veel van de mensen die de 'peak-oil-theorie' sterk aanhanger verdere invloeden als de prijs/winst op olie door producenten, en een flucturerende vraag, alswel bv invloeden als speculatie met de olieprijs ... als invloedrijk op het aanbod zélf...

quote:

Uiteindelijk bewijzen de huidige korte-termijn prijseffecten niks over de 'peak-oil-theorie'.... niet of deze kloppend is maar evenzeer bewijzen ze een 'onwaarheid erachter... dit zou enkel bewezen kunnen worden door lange termijns effecten te bekijken (waarbij je altijd moet oppassen dat bepaalde mensen niet suggereren lange-termijns-grafieken te gebruiken maar dan opeens suggestie-lijntjes gaan doortrekken of sterk de nadruk leeggeen op prijs- of aanbod-ontwikkelingen van enkel en laatste half jaar oid.... iets wat je sterk terugziet bij bepaalde mensen die hopen de 'peak-oil-theorie' te bwijzen aan de hand van korte termijns prijseffecten)

quote:

Op maandag 13 oktober 2008 11:19 schreef El_Matador het volgende:

[..]

Ehm, waht, dit klopt niet. De curve zelf is bijzonder gesimplificeerd en qua vorm niet correct.

Daarbij, dit gaat ook niet op voor het opsporen van nieuwe velden. Exploratie is een ander gebied dan productie, hoewel natuurlijk gerelateerd. Er spelen ook hele andere politieke, economische en technische factoren.

quote:

Wat ik vind van Hubbert en zijn piek is dat gewoon simpele logica (eindig product en oneindige vraag, hoe ziet dat eruit in een grafiek) gepresenteerd wordt als een controversieel model dat heel gewichtig zou zijn. Je kan geen Peak-Oil tegenstander zijn ofzo, want het is gewoon logisch. Maar de "voorstanders" gebruiken ook rare retoriek.

quote:

Op maandag 13 oktober 2008 11:40 schreef RM-rf het volgende:

[..]

als je idd enkel kijkt naar een theoretisch model waarbij de produktie hoeveelheid enkel beinvloed door de 'mogelijkheid' een bepaalde productiehoeveelheid te behalen en alle externe variabelen die op het productieaanbod evenzeer een invloed uitoefenen eventjes niet meeberekend worden..
(dus aanbieders ook altijd zullen pogen de maximum hoeveelheid te winnen, los van winstmarges of raffineer-capaciteiten; iets dat in de realiteit nu juist een erg sterke invloed heeft op de olieproductie)

quote:

peak-oil is in de studeerkamer ook en heel interessant model, maar voor de realiteit gewoonweg een veels te grote versimpeling om opeens als een soort van 'absolute waarheid' te gaan gebruiken waarop je bepaalde beleidshandelingen kunt baseren (waarbij ik overigens ook niet echt doorheb wat voor 'beleidshandelingen' de meeste hardcore peak-oil gelovers op het internet voorstaan anders dan heel had 'paniek-paniek-peeuw-peeuw' schreeuwen)...

quote:

Overigens moet je daarbij ook een verschil duidelijk maken tussen 'peak-oil' als bepaald economisch theoretisch model wat wetenschappers kunnen gebruiken... en hoe heet toegepast wordt op allerhande 'eind-der-tijden' internet-sites, door mensen die het eerder als 'geloof' toepassen dan als theoretisch economisch model.

quote:

The biggest ever sale of oil assets will take place today, when the Iraqi government puts 40bn barrels of recoverable reserves up for offer in London.

BP, Shell and ExxonMobil are all expected to attend a meeting at the Park Lane Hotel in Mayfair with the Iraqi oil minister, Hussein al-Shahristani.

Access is being given to eight fields, representing about 40% of the Middle Eastern nation's reserves, at a time when the country remains under occupation by US and British forces.

Two smaller agreements have already been signed with Shell and the China National Petroleum Corporation, but today's sale will ignite arguments over whether the overthrow of Saddam Hussein was a "war for oil" that is now to be consummated by western multinationals seizing control of strategic Iraqi reserves.

Al-Shahristani is expected to reveal some kind of "risk service agreements" that could run for up to 20 years, with formal offers to be submitted by next spring and agreements signed in the summer.
[..]
He said that if the conspiracy theory that western oil companies egged on US and British governments to invade Iraq were true, the plan could backfire on them and benefit rivals in Asia instead. "It is possible the American army has provided the economic stability that will encourage Malaysian, Chinese and other Asian companies to become involved," he said.
[..]
China's state-owned oil group, CNPC, has already agreed a $3bn (£1.78bn) oil services contract with the government of Iraq to pump oil from the Ahdab oil field.
[..]
"Why choose Shell when you could have chosen ExxonMobil, Chevron, BG or Gazprom?" he asked. "Shell appears to be paying $4bn to get hold of assets that in 20 years could be worth $40bn. Iraq is giving away half its gas wealth and yet this work could have been done by Iraq itself."

quote:

GRAND RAPIDS -- While motorists celebrate lower gas prices, a former U.S. Department of Energy official sees an opportunity: Raise fuel taxes to help end America's dependence on foreign oil.

"Unfortunately, it's high prices that cause people to be careful about energy use," said Jay Hakes, who lived in Grand Rapids as a child and is director of the Jimmy Carter Presidential Library and Museum in Atlanta.
[..]
It would punish those who burn the most gasoline and reward those who burn less, eventually driving down demand, he said.
[..]
"Only two presidents have told the American public that oil prices should be higher (Carter and Ford), and both lost re-election," said Hakes, head of the Energy Information Administration at the U.S. Department of Energy under President Bill Clinton.

"Presidents since that time are not willing to say that."

quote:

For decades, the U.S. has vowed to reduce its dependence on imported oil and to find a reliable source to meet the nation's growing oil needs.

Now, Canada offers a solution.
[..]
Also growing are the environmental costs - higher greenhouse gas emissions than conventional oil and long-term destruction of a swath of deep forest. In the past few months, Alberta officials have announced new environmental policies and plans to invest $4 billion Canadian ($3.7 billion U.S.) to cut emissions. What's clear so far is that they're facing an environmental problem - supersized.
[..]
Demand for fuel in North America will keep oil sands production growing from 1.2 million barrels a day in 2007 to 3.5 million to 4 million barrels a day by 2020, said Alberta Oil Minister Mel Knight. "I don't see anything on the horizon that would indicate that isn't a target that's doable."
[..]
The sands contain a form of crude oil called bitumen that's as thick as peanut butter. To remove the sand and clay to turn the bitumen into heavy crude that can flow to refineries takes a lot of energy.

For that reason, greenhouse-gas emissions from production are three to five times those of conventional oil.