Bulls, Bears & Bucks #10: Consumentenvertrouwen VS laagste in 26 jaar

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Op maandag 31 maart 2008 03:06 schreef indahnesia.com het volgende:

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die 15 miljard, is dat in dollars, franken of misschien euro's

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15 miljard Zwitserse francs bekendmaken.

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Op maandag 31 maart 200803:21 schreef henkway het volgende:

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The big banks' fear of big losses is threatening to bring down the entire system, with dire consequences for all of us. Here's what's going on, and what we can do about it.

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Guaranteeing Bear Stearns' portfolio of troubled investments sets a bad precedent by transferring potential losses from the market to taxpayers, complained Allan Meltzer, a professor of political economy at Pittsburgh's Carnegie Mellon University.

"I do not believe the current system can remain if the bankers make the profits and the taxpayers share the losses."

Others, however, said Mr. Bernanke may have saved the U.S. financial system from the cascading series of failures that marked the Great Depression of the 1930s.

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European Inflation Reaches Fastest Since 1992, Confidence Drops

By Fergal O'Brien

March 31 (Bloomberg) -- European inflation accelerated this month to the fastest in almost 16 years, heightening the European Central Bank's quandary at a time when the economy is cooling and confidence is falling.

Consumer-price inflation in the euro area accelerated to 3.5 percent in March, the highest since June 1992, the European Union's statistics office in Luxembourg said today. That is faster than the 3.3 percent median forecast of 36 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. A separate report showed consumer and business confidence declined more than economists expected.

Rising food and energy prices are stoking inflation in the euro area, eroding consumers' purchasing power and pushing up costs at companies. ECB council member Erkki Liikanen said today that inflation expectations have ``hardened'' and the growth outlook has ``become more subdued,'' summing up the dilemma for the central bank, which is resisting cutting interest rates as inflation accelerates.
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Aangepaste geldhoeveelheid (M3) eurozone stijgt 11,3%

Amsterdam (BETTEN FINANCIAL NEWS) - De aangepaste geldhoeveelheid M3 in de eurozone is over februari 2008 met 11,3% gestegen ten opzichte van dezelfde maand een jaar eerder. Dat heeft de Europese Centrale Bank (ECB) maandag bekendgemaakt.

Economen hadden gemiddeld gerekend op een stijging van 11,5%. In januari bedroeg de groei op jaarbasis 11,5%.

Bij het aangepaste M3-cijfer houdt de centrale bank rekening met de aankoop van de in de M3 opgenomen verhandelbare waardepapieren door niet-ingezetenen van de eurozone.

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Op maandag 31 maart 2008 12:59 schreef pberends het volgende:

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Je gaat je afvragen waarom de euro zo sterk is. Of is de Amerikaanse dollar gewoon belabberd slecht?

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Arabs' Dollar Doldrums Fail to Shake Central Bankers (Update1)

By Matthew Brown
Enlarge Image/Details

March 31 (Bloomberg) -- Central bankers in the Middle East are proving the U.S. dollar's decline to record lows is a small price to pay for the loyalty -- and oil money -- of their biggest Western ally.

The governor of the Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority, Hamad Saud al-Sayari, called the dollar a ``good buy'' when it fell to $1.55 a euro on March 12. The United Arab Emirates, conceding to U.S. pressure, will keep the dirham tied to the currency, a U.A.E. central bank official speaking on condition of anonymity said March 17.

While a booming economy has pushed the average rate of inflation to above 7 percent in Saudi Arabia and the five other Gulf Cooperation Council members, none say they will follow Kuwait and resolve the problem by ending their fixed exchange rates to the dollar. That's because doing so may spark a new dollar crisis, said Simon Williams, the chief Gulf economist at HSBC Holdings Plc in Dubai, a move that would slash the value of their $500 billion of assets denominated in the currency.

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Op maandag 31 maart 2008 12:59 schreef pberends het volgende:

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Je gaat je afvragen waarom de euro zo sterk is. Of is de Amerikaanse dollar gewoon belabberd slecht?

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Op maandag 31 maart 2008 13:25 schreef en_door_slecht het volgende:

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Ja, de euro is net zo goed zwak. En de rest van de wereld is niet veel beter. Zowel de yen, het pond sterling als de Zwitserse frank zijn net zo goed zwakke munten. Ook dat is een gevolg van het steeds maar rianter strooien met geld.

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ECB pompt opnieuw geld in financiële markt
Uitgegeven: 31 maart 2008 12:48

FRANKFURT -De Europese Centrale Bank (ECB) heeft maandag 15 miljard euro in de financiële markten gepompt. De maatregel is bedoel om de liquiditeit van banken te vergroten en de interne leningen tussen banken soepel te laten verlopen.
anp

Vrijdag injecteerde de ECB al een recordbedrag van 150 miljard euro in de markt. Binnen dat bedrag viel ook een langlopende kredietfaciliteit.

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Op maandag 31 maart 2008 17:39 schreef Drugshond het volgende:
[ afbeelding ]
bliep

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Op maandag 31 maart 2008 19:10 schreef ItaloDancer het volgende:
3,5% inflatie eurozone, in Q2 dus wederom geen renteverlaging ECB!
Ik zag de euro gaan vanmiddag hehe, maar nu staan we weer terug op de 1,58....

Chicago PMI viel iets mee, dus we stijgen (mag ook)

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Op maandag 31 maart 2008 19:15 schreef pberends het volgende:

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hoge inflatie zou de euro eigenlijk minder aantrekkelijk moeten maken... .

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Iceland's Biggest Banks Targeted by `Unscrupulous' Speculators

By Abigail Moses and Tasneem Brogger

March 31 (Bloomberg) -- Iceland's lenders are under attack from what its central bank called ``unscrupulous dealers'' amid concern reliance on foreign funding may undermine their operations.

The cost to protect the country's biggest lenders from default is the highest of 81 banks worldwide with credit-default swaps listed on Bloomberg. The country's benchmark index of stocks has shed 20 percent this year, while the krona has lost almost a quarter of its value against the euro.

``The longer this goes on, the worse it gets,'' said Olivia Frieser, a London-based bank analyst at BNP Paribas SA, France's biggest lender. ``It is a question of confidence.''

Iceland's banks have expanded outside of the $16 billion island economy by taking on more borrowing. They account for about 80 percent of the country's gross external debt, which is five times gross domestic product.

``Iceland has been likened to a hedge fund because the banks borrowed to invest in equity,'' Paul Rawkins, a senior director at Fitch Ratings in London, said in an interview. ``It was a punt on getting higher returns to pay off the debt. They are exposed now, and sentiment has shifted against them.''

The banks' credit ratings ``remain under close scrutiny,'' Rawkins said. Moody's Investors Service has a ``negative outlook'' on the Icelandic banking system, the company said in a report on March 14, citing rapid loan growth and concern about lower earnings.

Ratings Scrutiny

The nation of 300,000 has been among the hardest hit as the credit market freeze prompted investors to shun all but the safest government assets. The financial sector's net $35.3 billion of debt represents 211 percent of the country's gross domestic product, according to Fitch.

Attacks on the country's Reykjavik-based banks ``give off an unpleasant odor of unscrupulous dealers who have decided to make a last stab at breaking down the Icelandic financial system,'' central bank Governor David Oddsson said at its annual meeting in Reykjavik. ``They will not get away with it.''

Credit-default swaps on Kaupthing Bank hf, the nation's largest lender, increased to a record 16.5 percent upfront and 5 percent a year to protect 10 million euros ($15.8 million) of bonds, CMA Datavision prices show. The cost rose from 15.8 percent in advance and implies a 59 percent risk of default within five years, a JPMorgan Chase & Co. valuation model shows.

Glitnir, Landbanki

Credit-default swaps on Glitnir Banki hf, Iceland's third- biggest bank, traded at 17 percent upfront and 5 percent a year, according to CMA, up from 16 percent in advance. The cost implies a 60 percent risk of default, according to the JPMorgan model. The contracts have soared from 2.02 percent, or 202 basis points, with no upfront payment at the start of the year.

``It's very important that the Icelandic Financial Supervisory Authority, in cooperation with other countries, investigates the market and determines whether the allegations are true,'' Glitnir spokesman Bjoern Richard Johansen in Oslo said in a phone interview today.

Contracts on Landsbanki Islands hf, the second-largest lender, rose 68 basis points to 850 basis points, CMA prices show. The credit-default swaps traded as high as 9.5 percent upfront and 5 percent a year on March 28, according to CMA.

Landsbanki spokesman Andrew Walton and Kaupthing spokesman Jonas Sigurgeirsson were not immediately available for comment.

``The banks' reliance on wholesale funding is their Achilles heel, and their profitability will come under pressure in 2008, but the CDS reaction smacks of panic,'' Simon Adamson, a London-based senior analyst at CreditSights Inc., said in a note to clients dated yesterday.

Debt Speculation

Iceland's krona climbed against all 178 currencies monitored by Bloomberg, and as much as 3.4 percent against the euro, before trading at 119.4239 versus the common European currency. It dropped to a record low of 127.985 on March 19.

Credit-default swaps are financial instruments based on bonds and loans that are used to speculate on a company's ability to repay debt. They pay the buyer face value in exchange for the underlying securities or the cash equivalent should a borrower fail to adhere to its debt agreements. A rise indicate deterioration in the perception of credit quality; a decline, the opposite.

Iceland's Financial Supervisory Authority started investigating market movements last week, the FSA said in an e- mailed statement today.

The regulator is seeking to find out ``whether particular parties have systematically distributed negative and false rumor regarding the Icelandic financial system in order to profit from it,'' Hreinsdottir said.

Legal Threat

Kaupthing may take legal action against Bear Stearns Cos., the collapsed U.S. broker, the Financial Times reported today. Three executives of the New York-based company visited Iceland in January along with representatives of four hedge funds, the FT said. If Kaupthing decides to file a lawsuit, it will be able to subpoena e-mails and records from Bear Stearns and possibly the hedge funds, the newspaper said.

Bear Stearns London-based spokeswoman Jessica Shepherd- Smith didn't provide an immediate comment.

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Op maandag 31 maart 2008 23:27 schreef Billary het volgende:
Ook wel een ''mooi'' stukje.

Lijkt erop dat Amerikaanse banken Ijsland naar de afgrond trekken dit omdat veel van IJsland's geld in hedge fonds zitten.
Ijsland vind dat er een onderzoek moet komen naar degenen wie dit aan het doen zijn:

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Op maandag 31 maart 2008 23:29 schreef gronk het volgende:

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We mogen *zo* blij zijn dat we de euro hebben, als ik dit lees --- stel je de ellende eens voor als er, a-la 1992, een aanval van speculanten was geweest op 'zwakke' europese munten.

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Op maandag 31 maart 2008 17:39 schreef Drugshond het volgende:
[ afbeelding ]
bliep

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Op dinsdag 1 april 2008 09:44 schreef Basp1 het volgende:

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Nu zit de bliep naar benden worden er grootscheeps steunaankopen in europa gedaan?

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April 1 (Bloomberg) -- UBS AG, struggling to stem damage from the U.S. subprime meltdown, reported a second straight quarterly loss after an additional $19 billion of writedowns and said Chairman Marcel Ospel will step down.

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Op dinsdag 1 april 200809:44 schreef Basp1 het volgende:

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Nu zit de bliep naar benden worden er grootscheeps steunaankopen in europa gedaan?

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Op dinsdag 1 april 2008 09:47 schreef gronk het volgende:

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Ik gok op dit bericht:
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Op dinsdag 1 april 2008 10:17 schreef Basp1 het volgende:

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Is de zwiterse frank dan gekoppeld aan de euro?