Hurricane Season 2016 #2: Seizoen komt op gang

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Op vrijdag 26 augustus 2016 21:07 schreef aloa het volgende:

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Gaston de mooiweer brenger voor Nederland?

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Japan zet zich schrap voor tyfoon

Een krachtige tyfoon bedreigt grote delen van Japan, wat kan leiden tot overstromingen, modderstromen en hoge golven. Dat meldt het Japans Meteorologisch Agentschap.
Verwacht wordt dat tyfoon Lionrock hevige winden en regen met zich zal meebrengen op maandag en dinsdag in het oosten en noordoosten van Japan. Door de storm kunnen golven ontstaan van zeven tot negen meter.

Tiende tyfoon van het seizoen

Rond 02.00 uur Belgische tijd was de tyfoon, de tiende van het seizoen, op ongeveer 350 kilometer ten zuidoosten van het eiland Hachijo genaderd. De storm verplaatst zich in noordoostelijke richting, aan zowat 25 kilometer per uur. De windsnelheden bedragen gemiddeld 162 kilometer per uur, met windstoten tot 216 kilometer per uur.

In de regio Kanto, in het noordoosten van het eiland Hokkaido, wordt morgenochtend tot 150 millimeter regen verwacht, aldus het Agentschap.

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Op maandag 29 augustus 2016 14:17 schreef bwt het volgende:
Ik mis eigenlijk een linkje in de OP.
http://www.meteoearth.com/
Laat het actieve weer zien over de hele wereld.

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Madeline could become the first hurricane on record in the Big Island
At its closest, the center of Madeline is projected to be roughly 100 miles south of the Big Island. Given that this is more than two days out, we cannot yet entirely rule out the possibility that Madeline will stay far enough north to produce the first-ever hurricane strike on the Big Island in records going back to 1949. The 12Z Monday HWRF and GFDL model runs bring Madeline into the Big Island at hurricane strength, while the European and GFS models keep Madeline south of the island. Even if the latter occurs, very strong northeast winds rotating around the hurricane could produce torrential rains, flooding, and huge surf on the east side of the island. Tropical-storm-force winds currently extend out up to 115 miles from Madeline, and that envelope may expand by Wednesday as the hurricane matures.

About 1000 miles east of Madeline, Hurricane Lester remains impressive, now packing minimal Category 4 winds of 130 mph as of the 5 pm EDT advisory from NHC. As its shield of thunderstorms grows larger, Lester is taking on more of the characteristics of an annular hurricane--the type that features a large eye and a single broad ring around that eye, as opposed to spiral bands. Annular hurricanes tend to be slow to weaken, which raises the odds of Lester remaining strong enough to affect Hawaii as a hurricane. NHC predicts that Lester will be roughly 150 miles northeast of Hilo on Saturday morning as a Category 1 hurricane, on a northwestward-angling track that could keep the storm just north of the islands. There is enough error in five-day tracks to put most of the Big Island within NHC’s “cone of uncertainty” for Saturday, and a direct strike from Lester on one or more islands cannot yet be ruled out.

One factor that could influence both tracks is the Fujiwhara effect, in which hurricanes within about 800 miles of each other begin to rotate around a center of gravity in between them. Lester is slowly catching up to Madeline as it moves west at 14 mph, vs. Madeline’s 10 mph motion. If the two hurricanes get close enough, the Fujiwhara effect will tend to angle Madeline’s path toward the south and Lester’s toward the north--in both cases, exactly what you would want to reduce the chance of a direct hit on Hawaii. Such an outcome is by no means guaranteed, though. Given Hawaii’s limited experience with tropical cyclones (see this morning’s post for more details), both of these systems need to be taken very seriously.

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Op dinsdag 13 september 2016 09:00 schreef Frutsel het volgende:
WKN / Supertyfoon Meranti op koers met China, Taiwan en Hong Kong

eigen topic

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Asian typhoons becoming more intense, study finds
Giant storms that wreak havoc across China, Japan, Korea and the Philippines have grown 50% stronger in the past 40 years due to warming seas

The destructive power of the typhoons that wreak havoc across China, Japan, Korea and the Philippines has intensified by 50% in the past 40 years due to warming seas, a new study has found.

The researchers warn that global warming will lead the giant storms to become even stronger in the future, threatening the large and growing coastal populations of those nations.

“It is a very, very substantial increase,” said Prof Wei Mei, at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, who led the new work. “We believe the results are very important for east Asian countries because of the huge populations in these areas. People should be aware of the increase in typhoon intensity because when they make landfall these can cause much more damage.”

Typhoons can have devastating impacts in east Asia. In 2013, typhoon Haiyan hit the Philippines, killing at least 6,300 people and affecting 11 million. Typhoon Nina struck China in 1975, dumping 100cm of rain in a day and leading to 229,000 deaths and 6m destroyed buildings. Last week typhoon Lionrock left 11 people dead in northern Japan and caused power blackouts and property damage, while in July typhoon Nepartak hit Taiwan and China, killing at least nine people and leaving a trail of destruction.

In the new research, published in Nature Geoscience, the scientists took data collected independently by centres in Japan and Hawaii and, after accounting for differences in the way it had been collected, showed that typhoons in the north-west Pacific had intensified by 12–15% on average since 1977. The proportion of the most violent storms - categories 4 and 5 - doubled and even tripled in some regions over that time and the intensification was most marked for those storms which hit land.

The intensity of a typhoon is measured by the maximum sustained wind speed, but the damage caused by its high winds, storm surges, intense rains and floods increases disproportionately, meaning a 15% rise in intensity leads to a 50% rise in destructive power.

People take cover under a tree after strong winds brought by typhoon Rammasun, locally called Glenda, battered Manila, the Philippines, in July 2014.
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People take cover under a tree after strong winds brought by typhoon Rammasun, locally called Glenda, battered Manila in the Philippines, July 2014. Photograph: Romeo Ranoco/REUTERS
The researchers showed that the intensification of typhoons making landfall occurred because warmer coastal seas provided more energy to growing storms, enabling their wind speeds to increase more rapidly.

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Scientists are not yet able to determine whether manmade climate change or natural cycles are to blame for the warming seas in the region because 40 years is a relatively short time span for such phenomena. But Wei is clear that the future global warming, as projected by the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, would heat the oceans in the region and lead to even more intense typhoons.

Mei said: “We want to give the message that typhoon intensity has increased and will increase in the future because of the warming climate.” He said action was needed to both prepare for future typhoons and to reduce carbon dioxide emissions to curb warming: “Understanding intensity change is very important for disaster preparation.”

Prof Kerry Emanuel, an expert on tropical cyclones at MIT and not involved in the new research said: “The results leave little doubt that there are more high intensity events affecting south-east Asia and China, and these are also intensifying more rapidly.”

“This is significant for these nations because what matters, in the end, is landfall size and intensity,” he said. “Stronger storms cause higher storm surges, which often cause the most destruction and loss of life.” Previous work by Emanuel showed tropical cyclones are likely to become more frequent and stronger if climate change is not curbed.

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Op woensdag 14 september 2016 18:54 schreef aloa het volgende:
TS Julia


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