Hurricane Season 2016 #1: Orkanen wereldwijd

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A strong ridge of high pressure will keep 99L headed north of due west over the next few days, and the storm should pass through the northern Lesser Antilles Tuesday night through Wednesday, track close to Puerto Rico on Wednesday night, and affect Hispaniola and the Southeastern Bahamas by Thursday. The uncertainty about the track increases greatly thereafter, as a weak trough of low pressure passing to the north of 99L late this week may be strong enough to turn the storm to the north before it can reach the U.S. East Coast. The track of 99L may also be affected late this week by tropical wave 90L (see below), which could grow into a hurricane that comes close enough to exert a steering influence.

99L has a lot of hurdles to overcome to become a named storm. The 8 am EDT Sunday run of the SHIPS model showed moderately favorable conditions for development through Thursday, with wind shear in the moderate range, 10 - 15 knots, a relatively moist atmosphere, and SSTs near 28°C (83°F.) The total heat content of the ocean will steadily increase as 99L moves westwards, as well. But working against development of 99L will be the large size of the storm, dry air of the SAL, potential interaction with the land areas of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, and large scale sinking air over the tropical Atlantic imparted by an unfavorable phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). The active portion of the MJO is currently located in the Western Pacific, which is leading to increased tropical cyclone activity there--three named storms were active there on Sunday morning. This positioning of the MJO typically leads to compensating sinking air and surface high pressure over the tropical Atlantic, with reduced chances of tropical cyclone development there.

None of the Sunday morning (00Z) operational runs of our three reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis--the European, GFS and UKMET models--showed development of 99L into a tropical depression or tropical storm over the next five days. However, beyond five days, when the storm will likely be near or just north of the central Bahamas, the models are predicting a more favorable environment for development. The 00Z Sunday runs of the GFS and European model ensembles had 5% and 12% of their members predicting that 99L would eventually become a hurricane, after seven days. In their 8 am EDT Sunday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 99L 2-day and 5-day development odds of 20% and 50%, respectively.

https://www.wunderground.(...)t.html?entrynum=3391

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Op dinsdag 23 augustus 2016 14:44 schreef Basp1 het volgende:
In ieder geval warm genoeg water (27+) in de golf van mexico en voor de kust van florida om orkanen tot wasdom te laten komen.

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1. Satellite images, surface observations, and radar data from the
Lesser Antilles indicate that a broad area of low pressure
associated with a tropical wave is located near Guadeloupe.
Although environmental conditions are only marginally conducive for
development, this system could become a tropical depression during
the next day or two while it moves west-northwest at 15 to 20 mph
across the Leeward Islands and the Greater Antilles. Conditions
could become more conducive later this week while the system moves
near the southeastern and central Bahamas. An Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this
disturbance later today, if necessary. Interests from the islands
of the northeastern Caribbean Sea to the Bahamas should continue to
monitor the progress of this system. Gusty winds, heavy rains, and
possible flash floods and mudslides could occur over portions of
these areas regardless of tropical cyclone formation. Please consult
products issued by your local meteorological offices for further
details.

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Op woensdag 24 augustus 2016 11:58 schreef Frutsel het volgende:
ECMWF trekt het weer naar Florida en de golf...?

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Op donderdag 25 augustus 2016 10:35 schreef Nattekat het volgende:
Van wat ik nu gezien heb, wordt er niet eens meer een heftige storm verwacht.

En dan heb je ook nog dat ding boven de Atlantische Oceaan, maar die lijkt eerder noordwaarts dan westwaarts te gaan.

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Op vrijdag 26 augustus 2016 00:07 schreef Nattekat het volgende:

[..]

Midden op de Atlantische oceaan hangt wat, flink stormpje.

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Op vrijdag 26 augustus 2016 13:32 schreef Frutsel het volgende:
99L lijkt het Nu weer niet te redden. Benieuwd of er nog een opleving komt...