Martin Armstrong's Cycle of War and Political Economics

Martin loopt behoorlijk achter 2012 heeft Monopoly dit al ingevoerd.

Verder redelijke kansloze redenatie natuurlijk. Bordspellen zijn zooooo 1983. Daar conditioneer je helemaal niks meer mee

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Op woensdag 17 februari 2016 11:03 schreef J0kkebr0k het volgende:
Euro Crisis

The euro crisis appears to be unfolding right on target rather amazingly. Our target was published in “The Rise and Fall of the Euro” back in 2011. The target for the collapse in confidence was 2016.202. This comes into play March 13/14, 2016. It is rather amazing that we can target a specific event within time, years in advance, and watch these things unfold. This illustrates that TIME remains everything and humanity repeats a process that results in the same response over and over again throughout history. This also demonstrates that our forecasting is not based upon OPINION. With the euro unable to reach 116 of a rebound, this does not look very good in the next few weeks.

Here is what we published in that report:

[ afbeelding ]

From a timing perspective, the Bretton Woods System actually began with the operational start of the IMF on March 1, 1947 (1947.164). The euro began officially on January 1, 1999 (1999.002). The birth of the euro essentially completed the 51.6-year cycle between 1947 and 1999. The collapse of the euro appears to be due no later than 17.2 years from its birth, making the ideal target 2016.202, just 23.5 weeks ideally AFTER the peak on this current Economic Confidence Model wave 2015.75.

https://www.armstrongecon(...)orecast-of-2016-202/
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Een vrij harde voorspelling dit.

Nog maar een maand te gaan tot de ondergang van de Euro. Ben benieuwd. Ik noteer 13/14 maart

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Op woensdag 17 februari 2016 11:11 schreef Fogel het volgende:
Nog maar een maand te gaan tot de ondergang van de Euro. Ben benieuwd. Ik noteer 13/14 maart

Wedden voor ¤5.000.000,- dat de euro niet ten onder gaat!

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Op woensdag 17 februari 2016 11:26 schreef SicSicSics het volgende:

[..]

Wedden voor ¤5.000.000,- dat de euro niet ten onder gaat!

Whehe

quote:

Op woensdag 17 februari 2016 11:03 schreef J0kkebr0k het volgende:
Euro Crisis

The euro crisis appears to be unfolding right on target rather amazingly. Our target was published in “The Rise and Fall of the Euro” back in 2011. The target for the collapse in confidence was 2016.202. This comes into play March 13/14, 2016. It is rather amazing that we can target a specific event within time, years in advance, and watch these things unfold. This illustrates that TIME remains everything and humanity repeats a process that results in the same response over and over again throughout history. This also demonstrates that our forecasting is not based upon OPINION. With the euro unable to reach 116 of a rebound, this does not look very good in the next few weeks.

Here is what we published in that report:

[ afbeelding ]

From a timing perspective, the Bretton Woods System actually began with the operational start of the IMF on March 1, 1947 (1947.164). The euro began officially on January 1, 1999 (1999.002). The birth of the euro essentially completed the 51.6-year cycle between 1947 and 1999. The collapse of the euro appears to be due no later than 17.2 years from its birth, making the ideal target 2016.202, just 23.5 weeks ideally AFTER the peak on this current Economic Confidence Model wave 2015.75.

https://www.armstrongecon(...)orecast-of-2016-202/
------------------------------------------
Een vrij harde voorspelling dit.

Ik begreep uit zijn blog dat de komende 2 weken ook al het nodige aftekend m.b.t. euro en dollar.

Blog/Euro ¤
Posted Feb 16, 2016 by Martin Armstrong
Euro-US$
The euro continues its fall and the likelihood of reaching 116 is starting to dwindle. Even the British Telegraph has come out and stated that the bail-in plan for government bonds in Europe risks destroying the entire euro system. We have to understand that those in power are clueless. All they do is try to defend their prior decisions by insisting they are correct and the world is wrong. When we look at the volatility and panic cycles starting next week, it appears the crisis may emerge in Europe.



We can see how this crisis could help an extended gold rally. We are also seeing the Dow holding, which is the international money for they like to buy the trophies whereas the S&P 500 is domestic. So we have not penetrated last year’s low in the Dow and there is NOTHING that takes place without a reason. The Daily Bearish to watch in the cash euro is 11070. A daily closing beneath that warns this may be down and dirty.



When we look at the technicals, the Stochastic is turning down as well. We did not exceed the recent Breakout Channel and the former Downtrend Line lies at the 109 level. Penetrate that area and we are off to new lows.

https://www.armstrongecon(...)/euro-near-collapse/

Het gaat weer een stukje beter:
Europese beurzen in de lift

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Op woensdag 17 februari 2016 16:13 schreef J0kkebr0k het volgende:

[..]

Oh gelukkig. Niets aan de hand dus.

Ja en morgen of overmorgen stort het kaartenhuis weer in

Stocks Dive as Confidence in Fed Fades




“Investors are losing confidence in central bank policies. (They) have done all they can do, and these policies may not improve economic growth or may not support financial markets.”

— Anthony Valeri, investment strategist at LPL Financial

Zero rates and QE have stopped working and that has investors worried. Very worried.

If you want to know why stocks have been taking it on the chin lately, look no further than the quote above. Mr. Valeri nails it. The Central Banks have lost their touch which is why investors are cashing in and heading for the exits. This has nothing to do with the slowdown in China, bank troubles in Europe, capital flight in the emerging markets, droopy oil prices, or the deceleration in the global economy. Forget about that stuff. The real problem is that investors have lost confidence in the Fed. And for good reason.

Keep in mind, that for the last 5 years or so, bad news has been good news and good news has been bad news. What does that mean?

It means that every report that showed the economy was underperforming or getting worse was greeted with cheers from Wall Street because they knew the Fed would promise additional accommodation (QE) or continue to maintain zero rates into the future. The Fed conditioned investors to ignore fundamentals and merely respond to the Pavlovian promise of more cheap money. That cheap money helped fuel a rally that tripled the value of the S&P 500 while inflating asset bubbles across the spectrum. But now the impact of low rates appears to be wearing thin which has investors concerned that the Fed has run out of bullets.

Why? What changed?

In the last couple of weeks, the second and third biggest central banks (The European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan) either announced or launched additional easing programs, but to no effect. The BOJ implemented negative rates (NIRP) expecting the yen to weaken and stocks to rally. Instead, stocks fell off a cliff losing an astonishing 7.6 percent on the Nikkei while the yen strengthened by nearly 10 percent against the dollar. In other words, the results were the opposite of what the BOJ wanted.

The same thing happened to the ECB although Mario Draghi has not actually increased QE yet. The ECB is currently buying ¤60 billion of mainly sovereign bonds per month under the existing program ostensibly to trigger credit growth and boost inflation. Draghi increased speculation that he would boost the bank’s monthly purchases (by ¤15) at the World Economic Forum in January when he said:

“We have plenty of instruments. We have the determination, and the willingness of the governing council to act and deploy these instruments.”

Usually, a strong statement like that would be enough to send stocks into the stratosphere, but not this time. Since then, EU markets have tanked and the euro has strengthened against the dollar. Once again, the results have been the exact opposite of what was intended.

So the question is: If the promise of easy money and QE is no longer working in Japan or Europe, why would work in the US? Or, put differently: Has radical monetary policy lost its ability to prevent stocks from going into freefall? (The Bernanke Put)

This is what investors want to know.

Keep in mind, QE has not increased inflation in any of the countries where it’s been implemented. Nor has it boosted lending, triggered a credit expansion or strengthened growth. It’s a total fraud. But it has had a big impact on stock prices, which is why central banks love it.

But now that’s changed. Now QE is backfiring and zero rates have lost their potency. Investors know this. They know that monetary policy has run-out-the-clock and that overpriced stocks –which have been outpacing flagging earnings for years–are going to return earth with a thud. This is why the selloff could continue for some time to come.

Of course, now the focus has shifted to “negative interest rates”, the latest fad in central banking that is supposed to boost lending by charging banks a small fee on excess reserves. It’s another nutty attempt to prove that if you put money on sale, people will borrow. But what we’ve seen over the last seven years is that there are times when people won’t borrow no matter how cheap money is. The Fed can’t seem to grasp this. They can’t see to wrap their minds around the simple fact that reducing the cost of borrowing, does not always make it more desirable. Households that are trying to pay down their debts, increase their equity or save for retirement might not want to borrow regardless of how cheap the rates might be.

In any event, negative rates (NIRP) have already been implemented in Europe and Japan where the results are mixed. Here’s how Nomura’s chief economist Richard Koo summed up the phenom in his recent newsletter:

“In my view, the adoption of negative interest rates is an act of desperation born out of despair over the inability of quantitative easing and inflation targeting to produce the desired results. That monetary policy has come this far is a clear indication that both ECB President Mario Draghi and BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda have fundamentally misunderstood the ongoing recession…..” (“Macro and Credit…The Vasa Ship”, Macronomics)

Indeed. Now compare Koo’s comments to those of OECD Economic Committee Chairman, William White, who was asked what he thought the effects of negative rates would be on the economy in a recent Bloomberg interview:

William White:

“The truth is, nobody really knows. The thing about these experiments, is that they’re experiments. We have no historic precedence for this kind of behavior by central banks at all. EVER. So the answer is: We don’t know. The general idea is that if you charge negative interest rates on the reserves that the banks hold at the central banks that somehow this will translate into lower lending rate and more stimulus for the economy. But you have to realize that these negative rates will actually squeeze the banks margins, squeezing bank profits. This is something we actually don’t want because we want them to make more money so they can build up capital buffers. So what are the banks going to do?

Well, one possibility is that they lower the deposit rates for customers. That’s possible, but then people might take money out. The other possibility is that you simply raise the rate for people to borrow, which is the exact opposite for which the policy was intended. So, I repeat, this is all experimental. We’ll wait and see how it turns out. But I’m rather skeptical.”

(“OECD’s White Says More Wage Growth Attention Needed“, Bloomberg)

In other words, it’s just not a very well thought-out plan. Either the banks take the hit or the borrowers do. Either way, the plan won’t boost lending, generate a strong credit expansion or grow the economy. After seven years of this same nonsense, we should be willing to admit that reducing the price of money will not lead to an economic recovery. Of that, we can be 100 percent certain.

So, what will generate a strong recovery? This is the question Bloomberg put to White after he expressed his reservations about negative rates. Here’s his advice:

“Those who have fiscal room to maneuver, should use it.

I think there should be more attention paid to wage growth, which has been too low and so spending has been too low in consequence.

We need much more public infrastructure which is an asset to go with a government liability.

We need more systematic approaches to debt reduction and debt relief.

And we need a lot more structural reform to get that low hanging fruit to allow the economy to grow faster and to allow debt service to be more easily managed.” (“OECD’s White Says More Wage Growth Attention Needed”, Bloomberg)

Fiscal stimulus? Wage growth? Debt relief? Progressive reforms?

In other words, we’ve piddled-away seven-long years on radical monetary experiments that have achieved nothing and led us right back to where we began, at plain-old Keynesian fiscal stimulus, the only reliable way to put people back to work, stimulate growth, and get the economy back up-and-running.

Better late than never, I guess.

Mike Whitney lives in Washington state. He is a contributor to Hopeless: Barack Obama and the Politics of Illusion (AK Press). Hopeless is also available in a Kindle edition. He can be reached at fergiewhitney@msn.com.

http://www.globalresearch(...)in-fed-fades/5507985

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Op woensdag 17 februari 2016 17:16 schreef Dance99Vv het volgende:

[..]


Ja en morgen of overmorgen stort het kaartenhuis weer in

Het is....19 febr.2016

AMSTERDAM -
De AEX-index bleef richting het eind van de vrijdagmiddag ruim in het rood hangen. Het waren opnieuw de inmiddels welbekende spelbrekers die het sentiment parten speelden: een daling in de olieprijzen en zorgen over de Europese bankensector. Ook onzekerheid over de uitkomst van het topoverleg tussen de EU en de Britten maakte beleggers terughoudend. Delta Lloyd was de ster in de AEX, terwijl Boskalis een dreun kreeg van beleggers.

En alles is weer in het gebruikelijke rood, de voorzichtige plusjes van de afgelopen dagen zijn weer zo goed als teniet gedaan.

Het blijft lachen
Nou martin de komende weken is het jouw feestje? qua voorspellingen

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Op vrijdag 19 februari 2016 17:22 schreef Dance99Vv het volgende:

[..]

Het is....19 febr.2016

AMSTERDAM -
De AEX-index bleef richting het eind van de vrijdagmiddag ruim in het rood hangen. Het waren opnieuw de inmiddels welbekende spelbrekers die het sentiment parten speelden: een daling in de olieprijzen en zorgen over de Europese bankensector. Ook onzekerheid over de uitkomst van het topoverleg tussen de EU en de Britten maakte beleggers terughoudend. Delta Lloyd was de ster in de AEX, terwijl Boskalis een dreun kreeg van beleggers.

En alles is weer in het gebruikelijke rood, de voorzichtige plusjes van de afgelopen dagen zijn weer zo goed als teniet gedaan.

Het blijft lachen
Nou martin de komende weken is het jouw feestje? qua voorspellingen

Ik post nu ook af en toe in het beurs topic. Die gasten daar geloven serieus dat er geen enkele economische reden is voor een dalende AEX. Bizar om te zien dat mensen in zulke verschillende werelden kunnen leven.

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Op vrijdag 19 februari 2016 18:25 schreef Japie77 het volgende:

[..]

Ik post nu ook af en toe in het beurs topic. Die gasten daar geloven serieus dat er geen enkele economische reden is voor een dalende AEX. Bizar om te zien dat mensen in zulke verschillende werelden kunnen leven.

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Op maandag 8 februari 2016 16:19 schreef Wantie het volgende:
[ afbeelding ]

zie afbeelding

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Op vrijdag 19 februari 2016 18:32 schreef Dance99Vv het volgende:

[..]

[..]

zie afbeelding

Ja maar het is in 2008 al gebeurd. Mensen hebben blijkbaar een erg kort geheugen.

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Op vrijdag 19 februari 2016 18:38 schreef Japie77 het volgende:

[..]

Ja maar het is in 2008 al gebeurd. Mensen hebben blijkbaar een erg kort geheugen.

Was ook een hele hoge, lang-gerekte golf
He maar het gaat goed met de economie hoor (proest)

Wat telt als ten onder?

QUESTION:

Dear Martin Armstrong,
I appreciate very much your economic analysis and read your blog nearly daily although I disagree with some of your political statements.
In your last blog about Schengen you mention that “Everything is connected and nothing takes place in some isolated vacuum”. Obvious.
According to me, and many others re-known economists like Joseph Stiglizt or Paul Krugman, one of the problems in the current world is the exponential increase of social inequality and massive collection of wealth in few hands.
How is it possible that barely the 60 richest people can have the same wealth as half of the population (3.6 billion)? Is this acceptable? What would be the solution in your opinion? Because just free markets will reinforce not decrease the actual trend and you seem to be “socialist”-averse although some sort of redistribution of wealth should be done, I suppose, but how?.
Thanks for your great work
BR

ANSWER: This is a Marxist diversion. It focuses only on the “rich” and ignores the fact that government continues to expand and consume wealth. The “wealth” that everyone points to for the richest people is by no means a product of WAGES, rather it is created on paper valuations of investment. At the same time, that “wealth” dropped $1 trillion just in the January decline this year. It is NOT actual “money” in that sense. It is no different than your home being worth $500,000 one day and then $200,000 a month later.



“Social inequality” remains the headline grabber, yet the larger government becomes, the lower the economic growth. The OECD itself illustrates this. Higher taxes reduce economic growth, plain and simple. Then we have the average person who is robbed by about 50%+ between income taxes (federal and state), property taxes, fees, tools, and sales taxes. All of this goes to sustain government; it does NOT raise the living standard of the average person. Europe is even worse.
I tried to save Social Security on Capitol Hill. I argued to convert it to a wealth fund and allow it to invest exactly as the “rich” employ their money rather than stuffing it with depreciating government bonds. When I DONATED my time on Capitol Hill, the Dow was 1,000. That would now be 17 times more and amply enough to retired on. Social Security goes bust next year, and with interest rates manipulated lower you will get nothing.
Then the government charges payroll taxes on the average worker. Sure, they hand you a refund check at year-end. So they are borrowing from the average person and NOT paying them any interest. The government robs your ability to save and grow “rich” by stuffing your money in government bonds under Social Security.
Government creates “social inequality” by robbing the poor and middle classes while pretending to care. If we eliminated government federal income taxes, most people would take home at least 30% more.



The problem is NOT that the “rich” make money from investment; it is that the rest of society is DENIED the right to invest to get ahead because the government is bleeding everyone dry. Take all the money from the “rich” and we end up with communism, which will not improve your life in the least. So you do not stand a chance of surviving the future unless we start looking at the real culprit here. This is like a baseball game: the pitcher only focuses on the batter while those on base are stealing the next one unnoticed. We need to pay attention before there is no future for our posterity. Thank God I am not 18. I really do not want to live in a world run in this manner. This is not like Star Trek: “Scotty. Beam me up PLEASE!“

Categories: Armstrong Economics 101, Basic Concepts

https://www.armstrongecon(...)actually-creates-it/

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I attended your May 1999 seminar in London. I am the person who asked you when would Britain exit the EU. You said not before 2016. Can you elaborate on how you could have possibly foreseen this event coming in June? You have won my full attention. By the way, this is now all anyone talks about in London. Exiting the EU which is overrun with Islamic terrorists.
Cheers
BCM



ANSWER: Well, what is really fascinating is how the fundamentals FIT the forecast. It is not trying to forecast the fundamentals. I believe it is like good news in a stock in a bear market. It still declines and the excuse is it was not good enough. Fundamentals are interpreted by the mood of the trend. It is wrong to assume you need for forecast the fundamental to get the trend. It is all about the mood and how will the public receive it.



Britain entered the EU in 1973. Half the 8.6 year cycle is 4.3. It was lining up with our forecast back then that 2016 would be the first shot at a potential third party emerging or an anti-establishment trend. That forecast perhaps gained the most attention since we warned that Ross Perot 2.0 would be coming in 2016. Again, nobody can predict that it would be Donald Trump. It is not Donald Trump that is really the issue. It could be anyone. It is the timing that makeS such a message resonate with the population.
Additionally, if you add 86 years to 1973, there was no possible way Europe could have lasted that long until 2059. That will probably be a major political turn for Britain once again. However, it is hard to say what from this distance in time. I would suspect that it will be some sort of reorganization of Europe which could be the redrawing of borders and dramatic change in politics and could even threaten the royalty.



Therefore, adding 43 years to 1973 brings us to 2016. Britain’s exit simply lined up with everything and was part of “Big Bang” we forecast to start 2015.75. Everything was lining up to start with 2015.75 from the 17.2 years post launch of the Euro to the start of the War Cycle. Here is the slide from the 1998 world conference tour.



Categories: European Union, World Events

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/brext-on-schedule/

quote:

Op woensdag 17 februari 2016 11:03 schreef J0kkebr0k het volgende:
Euro Crisis

The euro crisis appears to be unfolding right on target rather amazingly. Our target was published in “The Rise and Fall of the Euro” back in 2011. The target for the collapse in confidence was 2016.202. This comes into play March 13/14, 2016.

---
knip
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Een vrij harde voorspelling dit.

Nog maar enkele dagen te gaan. Spannend.

quote:

Op dinsdag 8 maart 2016 12:43 schreef Fogel het volgende:

[..]

Nog maar enkele dagen te gaan. Spannend.

Zou er een betaal termijn van griekenland aan zitten te komen wat men niet kan voldoen?

21-12-2012 krijgt een nieuwe wending