BNW Brave New World
Samenzwering, verborgen agenda's en geheime geschiedenis. De zoektocht naar de wereld die achter de façade van alledag ligt.
Gezien de recente gebeurtenissen in Keulen etc. kun je denk ik wel zeggen dat de snelkookpan het steeds dichter bij het kookpunt komt.quote:Op donderdag 31 december 2015 12:12 schreef theguyver het volgende:
[..]We zijn een maand verder!
Wat is binnenkort in jou ogen?
Kleine geheimen dienen beschermd te worden.
Grote geheimen worden beschermd door publiek ongeloof.
Grote geheimen worden beschermd door publiek ongeloof.
Idd. De lont is bijna in het kruitvat. Hoeven nog maar een paar vonkjes bij te komen.quote:Op woensdag 6 januari 2016 22:05 schreef ender_xenocide het volgende:
[..]
Gezien de recente gebeurtenissen in Keulen etc. kun je denk ik wel zeggen dat de snelkookpan het steeds dichter bij het kookpunt komt.
Deze dan ook nog maar eens quoten:quote:
[..]
Gezien de recente gebeurtenissen in Keulen etc. kun je denk ik wel zeggen dat de snelkookpan het steeds dichter bij het kookpunt komt.
quote:So in the end, governments (not the Rothschilds) are in a fight for their very existence. They will incite civil unrest, set to rise sharply between 2015.75 and 2017.
Inderdaad, hierdoor krijg je wel de ketting
Overdrijven > veel maatschappelijke onrust > veel minder vertrouwen in de politiek.
Het draagt gewoon bij aan het tot kookpunt komen van de maatschappij.
[ Bericht 55% gewijzigd door Dance99Vv op 07-01-2016 17:13:16 ]
Overdrijven > veel maatschappelijke onrust > veel minder vertrouwen in de politiek.
Het draagt gewoon bij aan het tot kookpunt komen van de maatschappij.
[ Bericht 55% gewijzigd door Dance99Vv op 07-01-2016 17:13:16 ]
Kleine geheimen dienen beschermd te worden.
Grote geheimen worden beschermd door publiek ongeloof.
Grote geheimen worden beschermd door publiek ongeloof.
Martin heeft het wel over het wantrouwen naar regeringen en de EU van het volk en het bedrijfsleven( maar het geldt eigenlijk wereldwijd),quote:
Inderdaad, hierdoor krijg je wel de ketting
Overdrijven > veel maatschappelijke onrust > veel minder vertrouwen in de politiek.
Het draagt gewoon bij aan het tot kookpunt komen van de maatschappij.
voornamelijk door belastingen te blijven verhogen , de jacht op het kleingeld en gebrek aan realiteitszin en visie.
Overheden proberen door steeds verdergaande regelgeving de controle op de bevolking te houden .
Dat is in het kort wat martin naar voren brengt. dat is het ECM model wat hij ons voorhoud naast de warcyclemodel waar 2017 een belangrijk jaar is.
There is only one religion
We warned that 2015.75 was the turning point to the start of BIG BANG. As we now have entered the down wave on the Economic Confidence Model, things will begin to heat up.
I have warned that our current crisis in 2016 has been created by the total mismanagement of government by politicians. This year will mark the beginning of the problem of governments NEVER paying off debt. Instead, they roll it and add to it year after year. Well, 2016 will mark an outrageous roll as the equivalent of nearly half of the USA’s national debt has to be refunded. Major economies need to raise about $7.1 trillion U.S. dollars to refinance debt. Germany alone has around ¤203 billion euros of new debt that it has to sell, which is a considerable challenge in view of the fragile global economy. Welcome to BIG BANG.
[ Bericht 3% gewijzigd door #ANONIEM op 07-01-2016 20:23:09 ]
I have warned that our current crisis in 2016 has been created by the total mismanagement of government by politicians. This year will mark the beginning of the problem of governments NEVER paying off debt. Instead, they roll it and add to it year after year. Well, 2016 will mark an outrageous roll as the equivalent of nearly half of the USA’s national debt has to be refunded. Major economies need to raise about $7.1 trillion U.S. dollars to refinance debt. Germany alone has around ¤203 billion euros of new debt that it has to sell, which is a considerable challenge in view of the fragile global economy. Welcome to BIG BANG.
[ Bericht 3% gewijzigd door #ANONIEM op 07-01-2016 20:23:09 ]
Wat moet ik me bij zo'n "big bang" voorstellen?quote:Op donderdag 7 januari 2016 20:22 schreef J0kkebr0k het volgende:
We warned that 2015.75 was the turning point to the start of BIG BANG. As we now have entered the down wave on the Economic Confidence Model, things will begin to heat up.
[ afbeelding ]
I have warned that our current crisis in 2016 has been created by the total mismanagement of government by politicians. This year will mark the beginning of the problem of governments NEVER paying off debt. Instead, they roll it and add to it year after year. Well, 2016 will mark an outrageous roll as the equivalent of nearly half of the USA’s national debt has to be refunded. Major economies need to raise about $7.1 trillion U.S. dollars to refinance debt. Germany alone has around ¤203 billion euros of new debt that it has to sell, which is a considerable challenge in view of the fragile global economy. Welcome to BIG BANG.
Zoiets als in 2008 denk ik.quote:
[..]
Wat moet ik me bij zo'n "big bang" voorstellen?
Feyenoord!
Welcome to the way government manages our economy. They always run out of your money and constantly raise taxes blaming the rich for making too much.
Let The Bail-Ins Begin
http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/date/2016/01
We have now gone beyond TOO BIG TO FAIL to TOO BIG TO BAILOUT. Thus, all the promises from socialism are collapsing from Social Security, to pensions and insuring banks. This is what I have stated for the past 30+ years. We are headed into BIG BANG (which began 2015.75), which is more than just a sovereign debt crisis; it is the total collapse of socialism and a crisis in democracy. We have watched our forecasts made back in 1985 unfold on time and in perfect harmony with history.
In Europe, not a single head of the Troika has EVER stood for election! The people dictating the lives and direction of Europe by forcing the euro down the throats of everyone NEVER present themselves for election. The European population has absolutely no chance to say these people are wrong or decide to vote them out. There is no democratic process and that is what, historically, leaves only one option -- REVOLUTION.
As Bloomberg has reported, the bail-in has begun in Portugal. These people will simply confiscate our money and now they are trying to move to electronic money to prevent bank runs and hiding cash. The move to electronic money will appear in Europe first.
Bubble-Gum Machine
This is BIG BANG -- the total collapse of SOCIALISM as the result of politicians who are incapable of, not just forecasting the economy, but managing it. If I managed your money and lost it each month, then returned always asking for more, just how many months would you continue to give me more money until you said enough is enough? The mere fact that politicians raise taxes PROVES they are incapable of managing even a bubble gum machine. They squander the money, and when the machine is empty they simply rob us blind to fill it up again.
Let The Bail-Ins Begin
http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/date/2016/01
We have now gone beyond TOO BIG TO FAIL to TOO BIG TO BAILOUT. Thus, all the promises from socialism are collapsing from Social Security, to pensions and insuring banks. This is what I have stated for the past 30+ years. We are headed into BIG BANG (which began 2015.75), which is more than just a sovereign debt crisis; it is the total collapse of socialism and a crisis in democracy. We have watched our forecasts made back in 1985 unfold on time and in perfect harmony with history.
In Europe, not a single head of the Troika has EVER stood for election! The people dictating the lives and direction of Europe by forcing the euro down the throats of everyone NEVER present themselves for election. The European population has absolutely no chance to say these people are wrong or decide to vote them out. There is no democratic process and that is what, historically, leaves only one option -- REVOLUTION.
As Bloomberg has reported, the bail-in has begun in Portugal. These people will simply confiscate our money and now they are trying to move to electronic money to prevent bank runs and hiding cash. The move to electronic money will appear in Europe first.
Bubble-Gum Machine
This is BIG BANG -- the total collapse of SOCIALISM as the result of politicians who are incapable of, not just forecasting the economy, but managing it. If I managed your money and lost it each month, then returned always asking for more, just how many months would you continue to give me more money until you said enough is enough? The mere fact that politicians raise taxes PROVES they are incapable of managing even a bubble gum machine. They squander the money, and when the machine is empty they simply rob us blind to fill it up again.
There is only one religion
Why the Theory of Money Does Not Work
Posted on January 18, 2016 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: We see that the United States can borrow all it needs at minimal cost and we also see that we’re getting a big boost from falling energy/commodity prices, to levels we have not seen in some 15 years my “economic model” — which is not a computer model but is certainly scientific in nature — tells me that we will be humming along pretty nicely for quite a long while, minimum 5 years maybe much longer, given these two variables do you see anything on the horizon that will knock us off this “steady state” and quite favorable situation?
(en dit geldt ook voor europa/ europese landen)
ANSWER: You concept of the economy is very limited and is too influenced by the concept of the quantity of money/Austrian School. This is one-dimensional. Taxes play a huge role and provides the source of DEFLATION. If I give you $100 and then tax you $90, just how much did I really give you? The middle class is shrinking and they claim the 1% are making too much. Is that really the problem? No. The problem is the 40% (government) is broke and consuming a steady increase in the proportion of everyone’s income. Government produces nothing. It lives off of what everyone else produces. The more it grows, the lower the real economic growth.
You are only looking at the total aggregate. You assume simply increasing the quantity of money will produce inflation. That theory has been proven wrong constantly throughout the course of history. You must look at the growth of government and the larger it grows the lower the economic growth. Look at the City of Detroit. When more than 50% of its taxes went to pensions, it could no longer function to maintain the cost of government to operate currently and collapsed as those who could be taxes migrated from the city.
This same exact result manifested from the very beginning of the rebirth of government and taxes during the 15th century. Mainz was where the printing press was invented. The city went through a huge economic boom and the politicians borrowed against a future they assumed would never end. The more they raised taxes to pay for expenses, the more people left. They began issuing new debt to simply pay off the old debt as we do today. When they could not sell new debt, they defaulted. They were then invaded and the city was sacked and burned to the grown.
This outcome applies to all levels of government. Your “model” assumes that merely increasing the quantity of money defeats this reality. It does not and has NEVER prevented the collapse of Empires, Nations, or City States. Undermine the CONFIDENCE of the people and you destroy your own economy. This is what we are in today. The hunt for money has begun and with it our freedom is vanishing before our eyes. The end is caused by the mismanagement and greed of government – not the 1%. They too ultimately become the target of government just as Philip IV of France imprisoned all the Italian bankers, then seized the Papacy and move it to Avignon, and then installed a French Pope to seize the Knights Templar and confiscate all their wealth. It is always the same story and plot – just the names change with time.
Edward Gibbon in his Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire, wrote: “Suspicious princes often promote the last of mankind, from a vain persuasion, that those who have no dependence, except on their favor, will have no attachment, except to the person of their benefactor.”
Edward Gibbon wrote of Commodus (177-192AD): Each
“distinction of every kind soon became criminal. The possession of wealth stimulated the diligence of the informers; rigid virtue implied a tacit censure of the irregularities of Commodus; important services implied a dangerous superiority of merit; and the friendship of the father always insured the aversion of the son. Suspicion was equivalent to proof; trial to condemnation. The execution of a considerable senator was attended with the death of all who might lament or revenge his fate; and when Commodus had once tasted human blood, he became incapable of pity or remorse”
(Book 1, Chapter 4).
When government turns against its people, the economy begins to shrink. Commodus was the son of Marcus Aurelius who marks the peak in the Roman Empire. From that point on, Rome began its fall. Government began to hunt money and assets. The population of Rome itself peaks and people began to then migrate from the city to the suburbs. You must also look at this balance between Public and Private. Therein lies the real key to the rise and fall of civilization – not the quantity of money.
http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrong_economics_blog
Posted on January 18, 2016 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: We see that the United States can borrow all it needs at minimal cost and we also see that we’re getting a big boost from falling energy/commodity prices, to levels we have not seen in some 15 years my “economic model” — which is not a computer model but is certainly scientific in nature — tells me that we will be humming along pretty nicely for quite a long while, minimum 5 years maybe much longer, given these two variables do you see anything on the horizon that will knock us off this “steady state” and quite favorable situation?
(en dit geldt ook voor europa/ europese landen)
ANSWER: You concept of the economy is very limited and is too influenced by the concept of the quantity of money/Austrian School. This is one-dimensional. Taxes play a huge role and provides the source of DEFLATION. If I give you $100 and then tax you $90, just how much did I really give you? The middle class is shrinking and they claim the 1% are making too much. Is that really the problem? No. The problem is the 40% (government) is broke and consuming a steady increase in the proportion of everyone’s income. Government produces nothing. It lives off of what everyone else produces. The more it grows, the lower the real economic growth.
You are only looking at the total aggregate. You assume simply increasing the quantity of money will produce inflation. That theory has been proven wrong constantly throughout the course of history. You must look at the growth of government and the larger it grows the lower the economic growth. Look at the City of Detroit. When more than 50% of its taxes went to pensions, it could no longer function to maintain the cost of government to operate currently and collapsed as those who could be taxes migrated from the city.
This same exact result manifested from the very beginning of the rebirth of government and taxes during the 15th century. Mainz was where the printing press was invented. The city went through a huge economic boom and the politicians borrowed against a future they assumed would never end. The more they raised taxes to pay for expenses, the more people left. They began issuing new debt to simply pay off the old debt as we do today. When they could not sell new debt, they defaulted. They were then invaded and the city was sacked and burned to the grown.
This outcome applies to all levels of government. Your “model” assumes that merely increasing the quantity of money defeats this reality. It does not and has NEVER prevented the collapse of Empires, Nations, or City States. Undermine the CONFIDENCE of the people and you destroy your own economy. This is what we are in today. The hunt for money has begun and with it our freedom is vanishing before our eyes. The end is caused by the mismanagement and greed of government – not the 1%. They too ultimately become the target of government just as Philip IV of France imprisoned all the Italian bankers, then seized the Papacy and move it to Avignon, and then installed a French Pope to seize the Knights Templar and confiscate all their wealth. It is always the same story and plot – just the names change with time.
Edward Gibbon in his Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire, wrote: “Suspicious princes often promote the last of mankind, from a vain persuasion, that those who have no dependence, except on their favor, will have no attachment, except to the person of their benefactor.”
Edward Gibbon wrote of Commodus (177-192AD): Each
“distinction of every kind soon became criminal. The possession of wealth stimulated the diligence of the informers; rigid virtue implied a tacit censure of the irregularities of Commodus; important services implied a dangerous superiority of merit; and the friendship of the father always insured the aversion of the son. Suspicion was equivalent to proof; trial to condemnation. The execution of a considerable senator was attended with the death of all who might lament or revenge his fate; and when Commodus had once tasted human blood, he became incapable of pity or remorse”
(Book 1, Chapter 4).
When government turns against its people, the economy begins to shrink. Commodus was the son of Marcus Aurelius who marks the peak in the Roman Empire. From that point on, Rome began its fall. Government began to hunt money and assets. The population of Rome itself peaks and people began to then migrate from the city to the suburbs. You must also look at this balance between Public and Private. Therein lies the real key to the rise and fall of civilization – not the quantity of money.
http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrong_economics_blog
There is only one religion
Weet jij wat er precies in Portugal is gebeurd?quote:
As Bloomberg has reported, the bail-in has begun in Portugal. These people will simply confiscate our money and now they are trying to move to electronic money to prevent bank runs and hiding cash. The move to electronic money will appear in Europe first.
Feyenoord!
http://beurs.com/2016/01/19/bail-in-in-portugal-zorgt-voor-onrustquote:
[..]
Weet jij wat er precies in Portugal is gebeurd?
There is only one religion
Tja wat zijn daar de consequenties dan precies weer van. Dat grote investeerders flinke verliezen moeten nemen is natuurlijk niet zo'n probleem. Dat soort investeringsmaatschappijen zijn een kanker gezwel in onze maatschappij dus wat dat betreft.quote:
[..]
http://beurs.com/2016/01/19/bail-in-in-portugal-zorgt-voor-onrust
Feyenoord!
Nou als jouw pensioen ervan betaald moet worden (investeringsmaatschappijen/pensioenfondsen)quote:
[..]
Tja wat zijn daar de consequenties dan precies weer van. Dat grote investeerders flinke verliezen moeten nemen is natuurlijk niet zo'n probleem. Dat soort investeringsmaatschappijen zijn een kanker gezwel in onze maatschappij dus wat dat betreft.
dan heb je dus het nakijken, als grote investeerders hun heil elders zoeken en de spaarder in het vizier komt(cypres) dan lopen die ook weg bij de bank, het vertrouwen is dan weg.
Heel kort door de bocht, de banken zijn geen save place meer. bail-in of bail-out het gaat goed fout.
There is only one religion
Wat hebben investeringsmaatschappijen en pensioenfondsen met elkaar te maken dan? De hoop op een fatsoenlijk pensioen heb ik persoonlijk al jaren geleden opgegeven.quote:
[..]
Nou als jouw pensioen ervan betaald moet worden (investeringsmaatschappijen/pensioenfondsen)
dan heb je dus het nakijken, als grote investeerders hun heil elders zoeken en de spaarder in het vizier komt(cypres) dan lopen die ook weg bij de bank, het vertrouwen is dan weg.
Heel kort door de bocht, de banken zijn geen save place meer. bail-in of bail-out het gaat goed fout.
Als spaarders hun vertrouwen in de bank verliezen heb je inderdaad een heel groot probleem (of juist niet aangezien we verandering willen). Maar dat zie ik nog niet zo 1,2,3 gebeuren. De financiele wereld is zo onvoorspelbaar als wat. En ook zo complex als wat trouwens, zo veel variabelen die van invloed zijn.
Feyenoord!
Ze hebben beiden veel geld wat moet groeien, de investeringsmaatschappijen willen winst maken om het winstmaken, de pensioenfondsen willen winst(rendement) om de pensioenen te kunnen blijven betalen(en de bonussen)quote:
[..]
Wat hebben investeringsmaatschappijen en pensioenfondsen met elkaar te maken dan?
De spaarder is allang geen partij meer bij banken omdat die hun geld halen bij de ECB tegen zeer lage rente.Maar als het mis gaat is de spaarder de lul en de rente is zo laag dat t.o.v. de inflatie je kan spreken van negatief rendement op je spaargeld. Maar de overheid er van uitgaat dat je nog steeds 4% rendement hebt en daar belasting over moet betalen. Geld kun je dus beter uitgeven of in je kluis stoppen dan naar de bank te brengen.
There is only one religion
Europe Moving Into Meltdown?
QUESTION: Marty, now the OECD is predicting a financial crash worse than the 2007-2009 event in Europe because they say there is over ¤1 trillion in bad loans that cannot be collected. They seem to be also changing their opinion to fit your model. Where there there in Berlin?
ANSWER: We cannot comment on if the OECD is following our model or who is attending a conference. They are the most widely attended and many just want to know where the computer stands.
We see a massive banking crisis. The European banks are in deep trouble. Deutsche Bank posted a shocking ¤6.7 billion euro loss with its shares falling 10% in a day. HSBC bought Republic National Bank in New York for a bit more than that. Barclay’s in pulling out of all emerging markets cutting 1,000+ jobs.
The collapse in commodities will reek havoc of all emerging market countries, but there is one economy which nobody pays attention to closely. That is Germany. Yes it is the largest economy and main supporter of the Euro. They need open borders and the Euro to maintain their economy which is EXPORT driven. China is advancing more rapidly than Germany and has focused on trying to develop its internal economy. Spain was the richest nation in Europe with all the gold coming in from America. But they failed to develop their internal economy and collapsed. Germany is declining. It cannot be sustain with open borders and the Euro because the rest of Europe is in serious decline. The refugee crisis is a nightmare and now Italy demand taxpayer money to bailout banks fearful that a bail-in will cause a revolution.
Merkel was against allowing in refugees previously, but then changed her position to combat her poor view for the treatment of Greece and then the brilliant idea of bringing in cheap labor again to help Germany. This entire refugee crisis is far beyond control and now the elites are beside themselves for the manipulations.
German Federal Minister Sigmar Gabriel, who is also head of the SPD, warned at the Economic Forum in Davos of a return to border fences and controls. That would be an economic disaster and would be rising unemployment. This is the German EXPORT model – that and the Euro. But it is coming and with it, the further decline of Germany. This will only fuel the dollar rally when Europeans realize that the break-up of the Euro may lead to Deutsche marks, but will they be better? Now even Soros is saying the collapse of the Euro is inevitable. So everyone is now joining the party; a bit late, but as they say, better late than never.
So welcome to the other side of 2015.75. We have a long way to go down into 2020. Here are just the technical projections. They also warn just taking out the 89 level produces a free-fall. This is just looking more and more like a total disaster of political incompetence and total mismanagement.
The career politicians are incapable of saving Europe and instead are the very people pushing it over the edge. All they are focused on is saving their own ass in Brussels with their pension. Jean-Claude Juncker has done such a great job destroying Europe, he was given a retroactive pay increase to more than ¤32,000 PER MONTH. Socrates would do a better job and we would charge based upon performance.
Can a computer be president? Hm. Way of the future?
QUESTION: Marty, now the OECD is predicting a financial crash worse than the 2007-2009 event in Europe because they say there is over ¤1 trillion in bad loans that cannot be collected. They seem to be also changing their opinion to fit your model. Where there there in Berlin?
ANSWER: We cannot comment on if the OECD is following our model or who is attending a conference. They are the most widely attended and many just want to know where the computer stands.
We see a massive banking crisis. The European banks are in deep trouble. Deutsche Bank posted a shocking ¤6.7 billion euro loss with its shares falling 10% in a day. HSBC bought Republic National Bank in New York for a bit more than that. Barclay’s in pulling out of all emerging markets cutting 1,000+ jobs.
The collapse in commodities will reek havoc of all emerging market countries, but there is one economy which nobody pays attention to closely. That is Germany. Yes it is the largest economy and main supporter of the Euro. They need open borders and the Euro to maintain their economy which is EXPORT driven. China is advancing more rapidly than Germany and has focused on trying to develop its internal economy. Spain was the richest nation in Europe with all the gold coming in from America. But they failed to develop their internal economy and collapsed. Germany is declining. It cannot be sustain with open borders and the Euro because the rest of Europe is in serious decline. The refugee crisis is a nightmare and now Italy demand taxpayer money to bailout banks fearful that a bail-in will cause a revolution.
Merkel was against allowing in refugees previously, but then changed her position to combat her poor view for the treatment of Greece and then the brilliant idea of bringing in cheap labor again to help Germany. This entire refugee crisis is far beyond control and now the elites are beside themselves for the manipulations.
German Federal Minister Sigmar Gabriel, who is also head of the SPD, warned at the Economic Forum in Davos of a return to border fences and controls. That would be an economic disaster and would be rising unemployment. This is the German EXPORT model – that and the Euro. But it is coming and with it, the further decline of Germany. This will only fuel the dollar rally when Europeans realize that the break-up of the Euro may lead to Deutsche marks, but will they be better? Now even Soros is saying the collapse of the Euro is inevitable. So everyone is now joining the party; a bit late, but as they say, better late than never.
So welcome to the other side of 2015.75. We have a long way to go down into 2020. Here are just the technical projections. They also warn just taking out the 89 level produces a free-fall. This is just looking more and more like a total disaster of political incompetence and total mismanagement.
The career politicians are incapable of saving Europe and instead are the very people pushing it over the edge. All they are focused on is saving their own ass in Brussels with their pension. Jean-Claude Juncker has done such a great job destroying Europe, he was given a retroactive pay increase to more than ¤32,000 PER MONTH. Socrates would do a better job and we would charge based upon performance.
Can a computer be president? Hm. Way of the future?
There is only one religion
Greek Rising Civil Unrest
Alexis Tsipras has to implement pension reform in order to get more loans from Brussels. He is betraying everything the Greek people voted for and is pushing Greece over the edge. Brussels is demanding that the Greeks pay for the shenanigans of Goldman Sachs whom helped Greek politicians cook the books.
Protests against the pension cuts and tax increases in Greece are spreading throughout the country. On Thursday, Greek farmers blocked major roads with their tractors. Among other things, the traffic was hampered on the axis linking western Greece with Turkey. The sailors continued a 48-hour strike. Most ferries remained in port and the rail transport was hampered by work stoppages of railwaymen.
The ONLY solution is to exit the euro. Brussels is totally insane and their actions are designed only to maintain their own jobs. Merkel created this entire refugee mess by trying to show she was human while denying anything to Greece, despite Greece forgiving the German debt after World War II.
It is ironic that Merkel refused to bend for the Greeks, yet she let in hordes of “refugees” who are tearing Europe apart and have resulted in passports checks between member states.
Alexis Tsipras has to implement pension reform in order to get more loans from Brussels. He is betraying everything the Greek people voted for and is pushing Greece over the edge. Brussels is demanding that the Greeks pay for the shenanigans of Goldman Sachs whom helped Greek politicians cook the books.
Protests against the pension cuts and tax increases in Greece are spreading throughout the country. On Thursday, Greek farmers blocked major roads with their tractors. Among other things, the traffic was hampered on the axis linking western Greece with Turkey. The sailors continued a 48-hour strike. Most ferries remained in port and the rail transport was hampered by work stoppages of railwaymen.
The ONLY solution is to exit the euro. Brussels is totally insane and their actions are designed only to maintain their own jobs. Merkel created this entire refugee mess by trying to show she was human while denying anything to Greece, despite Greece forgiving the German debt after World War II.
It is ironic that Merkel refused to bend for the Greeks, yet she let in hordes of “refugees” who are tearing Europe apart and have resulted in passports checks between member states.
There is only one religion
Ik volg deze man al een tijdje. Hij heeft overduidelijk veel verstand van de economie maar voor de rest vallen zijn verhalen/voorspellingen erg tegen. Mijns inziens is het meer een soort charlatan. Het model waar hij het steeds over heeft staat slechts erg summier uitgelegd op zijn website. Als je zijn (beurs)voorspellingen wilt lezen moet je betalen, dat moet al genoeg te denken geven. Hoezo heeft iemand die de beurs kan voorspellen geld nodig? Dat klopt dus niet he...
Overigens is het wel zo dat er sprake is van cycles in de economie, denk bijvoorbeeld aan de conjunctuurklok. Maar dat deze cycles exact te timen zijn is natuurlijk niet zo, dat kan niemand.
Overigens is het wel zo dat er sprake is van cycles in de economie, denk bijvoorbeeld aan de conjunctuurklok. Maar dat deze cycles exact te timen zijn is natuurlijk niet zo, dat kan niemand.
WEB / [HaxBall #64] Jos is God
Arguing on the Internet is like running in the Special Olympics.
Arguing on the Internet is like running in the Special Olympics.
Heb je die documentaire gezien over hem? Daarin werd een oude computer getoond met een model voor de komende 15 jaar waarin hij zo goed als alle crisa goed had voorspeld.quote:
Ik volg deze man al een tijdje. Hij heeft overduidelijk veel verstand van de economie maar voor de rest vallen zijn verhalen/voorspellingen erg tegen. Mijns inziens is het meer een soort charlatan. Het model waar hij het steeds over heeft staat slechts erg summier uitgelegd op zijn website. Als je zijn (beurs)voorspellingen wilt lezen moet je betalen, dat moet al genoeg te denken geven. Hoezo heeft iemand die de beurs kan voorspellen geld nodig? Dat klopt dus niet he...
Overigens is het wel zo dat er sprake is van cycles in de economie, denk bijvoorbeeld aan de conjunctuurklok. Maar dat deze cycles exact te timen zijn is natuurlijk niet zo, dat kan niemand.
Feyenoord!
Ja gezien. Het ligt er maar net aan hoe je die voorspelling interpreteert. Nostradamus had ook alles zogenaamd voorspeld.quote:
[..]
Heb je die documentaire gezien over hem? Daarin werd een oude computer getoond met een model voor de komende 15 jaar waarin hij zo goed als alle crisa goed had voorspeld.
WEB / [HaxBall #64] Jos is God
Arguing on the Internet is like running in the Special Olympics.
Arguing on the Internet is like running in the Special Olympics.
Dat inderdaad.quote:
[..]
Ja gezien. Het ligt er maar net aan hoe je die voorspelling interpreteert. Nostradamus had ook alles zogenaamd voorspeld.
Pas als er duidelijke voorspellingen komen die vooraf bekend gemaakt worden ipv achteraf naar een willekeurige spike te wijzen met een 'kijk, daar zie je wat er gebeurd is', dan kan je er meer waarde aan gaan hechten.
I'm surrounded by morons!
TRV plannen/geboekt 2026: Peru, België, Nederland, St. Maarten
TRV plannen/geboekt 2025:Zuid-Amerika, Nederland, Chicago, Washington, Nederland, Kroatië, Slovenië, Parijs/Brussel/Nijmegen/Kopenhagen, Griekenland, Nederland, Nederland, Oslo
TRV 2024:Nederland, UK, Nederland, Denemarken, UK, Nederland, Noord-Noorwegen, Nederland, Atlanta
TRV plannen/geboekt 2026: Peru, België, Nederland, St. Maarten
TRV plannen/geboekt 2025:Zuid-Amerika, Nederland, Chicago, Washington, Nederland, Kroatië, Slovenië, Parijs/Brussel/Nijmegen/Kopenhagen, Griekenland, Nederland, Nederland, Oslo
TRV 2024:Nederland, UK, Nederland, Denemarken, UK, Nederland, Noord-Noorwegen, Nederland, Atlanta
Hoezo? Lijkt me weinig ruimte voor intrepretatie hoor. Als je zulke keiharde voorspellingen doet die uitkomen is daar geen speld tussen te krijgen.quote:
[..]
Ja gezien. Het ligt er maar net aan hoe je die voorspelling interpreteert. Nostradamus had ook alles zogenaamd voorspeld.
Feyenoord!
Euro Crisis
The euro crisis appears to be unfolding right on target rather amazingly. Our target was published in “The Rise and Fall of the Euro” back in 2011. The target for the collapse in confidence was 2016.202. This comes into play March 13/14, 2016. It is rather amazing that we can target a specific event within time, years in advance, and watch these things unfold. This illustrates that TIME remains everything and humanity repeats a process that results in the same response over and over again throughout history. This also demonstrates that our forecasting is not based upon OPINION. With the euro unable to reach 116 of a rebound, this does not look very good in the next few weeks.
Here is what we published in that report:
From a timing perspective, the Bretton Woods System actually began with the operational start of the IMF on March 1, 1947 (1947.164). The euro began officially on January 1, 1999 (1999.002). The birth of the euro essentially completed the 51.6-year cycle between 1947 and 1999. The collapse of the euro appears to be due no later than 17.2 years from its birth, making the ideal target 2016.202, just 23.5 weeks ideally AFTER the peak on this current Economic Confidence Model wave 2015.75.
https://www.armstrongecon(...)orecast-of-2016-202/
------------------------------------------
Een vrij harde voorspelling dit.
The euro crisis appears to be unfolding right on target rather amazingly. Our target was published in “The Rise and Fall of the Euro” back in 2011. The target for the collapse in confidence was 2016.202. This comes into play March 13/14, 2016. It is rather amazing that we can target a specific event within time, years in advance, and watch these things unfold. This illustrates that TIME remains everything and humanity repeats a process that results in the same response over and over again throughout history. This also demonstrates that our forecasting is not based upon OPINION. With the euro unable to reach 116 of a rebound, this does not look very good in the next few weeks.
Here is what we published in that report:
From a timing perspective, the Bretton Woods System actually began with the operational start of the IMF on March 1, 1947 (1947.164). The euro began officially on January 1, 1999 (1999.002). The birth of the euro essentially completed the 51.6-year cycle between 1947 and 1999. The collapse of the euro appears to be due no later than 17.2 years from its birth, making the ideal target 2016.202, just 23.5 weeks ideally AFTER the peak on this current Economic Confidence Model wave 2015.75.
https://www.armstrongecon(...)orecast-of-2016-202/
------------------------------------------
Een vrij harde voorspelling dit.
Well Monopoly Goes Cashless. It looks like the game company sees the writing on the wall and are preparing the kids for the new world order – cashless society.
https://www.armstrongecon(...)-totalitarian-order/
Martin loopt behoorlijk achter 
2012 heeft Monopoly dit al ingevoerd. 
Verder redelijke kansloze redenatie natuurlijk. Bordspellen zijn zooooo 1983. Daar conditioneer je helemaal niks meer mee
2012 heeft Monopoly dit al ingevoerd. Verder redelijke kansloze redenatie natuurlijk. Bordspellen zijn zooooo 1983. Daar conditioneer je helemaal niks meer mee
Fine, fuck you then!
The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, but wiser people so full of doubts.
The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, but wiser people so full of doubts.
Nog maar een maand te gaan tot de ondergang van de Euro. Ben benieuwd. Ik noteer 13/14 maartquote:
Euro Crisis
The euro crisis appears to be unfolding right on target rather amazingly. Our target was published in “The Rise and Fall of the Euro” back in 2011. The target for the collapse in confidence was 2016.202. This comes into play March 13/14, 2016. It is rather amazing that we can target a specific event within time, years in advance, and watch these things unfold. This illustrates that TIME remains everything and humanity repeats a process that results in the same response over and over again throughout history. This also demonstrates that our forecasting is not based upon OPINION. With the euro unable to reach 116 of a rebound, this does not look very good in the next few weeks.
Here is what we published in that report:
[ afbeelding ]
From a timing perspective, the Bretton Woods System actually began with the operational start of the IMF on March 1, 1947 (1947.164). The euro began officially on January 1, 1999 (1999.002). The birth of the euro essentially completed the 51.6-year cycle between 1947 and 1999. The collapse of the euro appears to be due no later than 17.2 years from its birth, making the ideal target 2016.202, just 23.5 weeks ideally AFTER the peak on this current Economic Confidence Model wave 2015.75.
https://www.armstrongecon(...)orecast-of-2016-202/
------------------------------------------
Een vrij harde voorspelling dit.
I'm surrounded by morons!
TRV plannen/geboekt 2026: Peru, België, Nederland, St. Maarten
TRV plannen/geboekt 2025:Zuid-Amerika, Nederland, Chicago, Washington, Nederland, Kroatië, Slovenië, Parijs/Brussel/Nijmegen/Kopenhagen, Griekenland, Nederland, Nederland, Oslo
TRV 2024:Nederland, UK, Nederland, Denemarken, UK, Nederland, Noord-Noorwegen, Nederland, Atlanta
TRV plannen/geboekt 2026: Peru, België, Nederland, St. Maarten
TRV plannen/geboekt 2025:Zuid-Amerika, Nederland, Chicago, Washington, Nederland, Kroatië, Slovenië, Parijs/Brussel/Nijmegen/Kopenhagen, Griekenland, Nederland, Nederland, Oslo
TRV 2024:Nederland, UK, Nederland, Denemarken, UK, Nederland, Noord-Noorwegen, Nederland, Atlanta
Wedden voor ¤5.000.000,- dat de euro niet ten onder gaat!quote:
Nog maar een maand te gaan tot de ondergang van de Euro. Ben benieuwd. Ik noteer 13/14 maart
Fine, fuck you then!
The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, but wiser people so full of doubts.
The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, but wiser people so full of doubts.
Whehequote:Op woensdag 17 februari 2016 11:26 schreef SicSicSics het volgende:
[..]
Wedden voor ¤5.000.000,- dat de euro niet ten onder gaat!
I'm surrounded by morons!
TRV plannen/geboekt 2026: Peru, België, Nederland, St. Maarten
TRV plannen/geboekt 2025:Zuid-Amerika, Nederland, Chicago, Washington, Nederland, Kroatië, Slovenië, Parijs/Brussel/Nijmegen/Kopenhagen, Griekenland, Nederland, Nederland, Oslo
TRV 2024:Nederland, UK, Nederland, Denemarken, UK, Nederland, Noord-Noorwegen, Nederland, Atlanta
TRV plannen/geboekt 2026: Peru, België, Nederland, St. Maarten
TRV plannen/geboekt 2025:Zuid-Amerika, Nederland, Chicago, Washington, Nederland, Kroatië, Slovenië, Parijs/Brussel/Nijmegen/Kopenhagen, Griekenland, Nederland, Nederland, Oslo
TRV 2024:Nederland, UK, Nederland, Denemarken, UK, Nederland, Noord-Noorwegen, Nederland, Atlanta
Ik begreep uit zijn blog dat de komende 2 weken ook al het nodige aftekend m.b.t. euro en dollar.quote:
Euro Crisis
The euro crisis appears to be unfolding right on target rather amazingly. Our target was published in “The Rise and Fall of the Euro” back in 2011. The target for the collapse in confidence was 2016.202. This comes into play March 13/14, 2016. It is rather amazing that we can target a specific event within time, years in advance, and watch these things unfold. This illustrates that TIME remains everything and humanity repeats a process that results in the same response over and over again throughout history. This also demonstrates that our forecasting is not based upon OPINION. With the euro unable to reach 116 of a rebound, this does not look very good in the next few weeks.
Here is what we published in that report:
[ afbeelding ]
From a timing perspective, the Bretton Woods System actually began with the operational start of the IMF on March 1, 1947 (1947.164). The euro began officially on January 1, 1999 (1999.002). The birth of the euro essentially completed the 51.6-year cycle between 1947 and 1999. The collapse of the euro appears to be due no later than 17.2 years from its birth, making the ideal target 2016.202, just 23.5 weeks ideally AFTER the peak on this current Economic Confidence Model wave 2015.75.
https://www.armstrongecon(...)orecast-of-2016-202/
------------------------------------------
Een vrij harde voorspelling dit.
Blog/Euro ¤
Posted Feb 16, 2016 by Martin Armstrong
Euro-US$
The euro continues its fall and the likelihood of reaching 116 is starting to dwindle. Even the British Telegraph has come out and stated that the bail-in plan for government bonds in Europe risks destroying the entire euro system. We have to understand that those in power are clueless. All they do is try to defend their prior decisions by insisting they are correct and the world is wrong. When we look at the volatility and panic cycles starting next week, it appears the crisis may emerge in Europe.
We can see how this crisis could help an extended gold rally. We are also seeing the Dow holding, which is the international money for they like to buy the trophies whereas the S&P 500 is domestic. So we have not penetrated last year’s low in the Dow and there is NOTHING that takes place without a reason. The Daily Bearish to watch in the cash euro is 11070. A daily closing beneath that warns this may be down and dirty.
When we look at the technicals, the Stochastic is turning down as well. We did not exceed the recent Breakout Channel and the former Downtrend Line lies at the 109 level. Penetrate that area and we are off to new lows.
https://www.armstrongecon(...)/euro-near-collapse/
There is only one religion
quote:
[..]
Wedden voor ¤5.000.000,- dat de euro niet ten onder gaat!
Spann0nd!!quote:
[..]
Ik begreep uit zijn blog dat de komende 2 weken ook al het nodige aftekend m.b.t. euro en dollar.
Blog/Euro ¤
Posted Feb 16, 2016 by Martin Armstrong
Euro-US$
The euro continues its fall and the likelihood of reaching 116 is starting to dwindle. Even the British Telegraph has come out and stated that the bail-in plan for government bonds in Europe risks destroying the entire euro system. We have to understand that those in power are clueless. All they do is try to defend their prior decisions by insisting they are correct and the world is wrong. When we look at the volatility and panic cycles starting next week, it appears the crisis may emerge in Europe.
[ afbeelding ]
We can see how this crisis could help an extended gold rally. We are also seeing the Dow holding, which is the international money for they like to buy the trophies whereas the S&P 500 is domestic. So we have not penetrated last year’s low in the Dow and there is NOTHING that takes place without a reason. The Daily Bearish to watch in the cash euro is 11070. A daily closing beneath that warns this may be down and dirty.
[ afbeelding ]
When we look at the technicals, the Stochastic is turning down as well. We did not exceed the recent Breakout Channel and the former Downtrend Line lies at the 109 level. Penetrate that area and we are off to new lows.
https://www.armstrongecon(...)/euro-near-collapse/
Oh gelukkig. Niets aan de hand dus.quote:
Het gaat weer een stukje beter:
Europese beurzen in de lift
Ja en morgen of overmorgen stort het kaartenhuis weer inquote:
[..]
Oh gelukkig. Niets aan de hand dus.
There is only one religion
Stocks Dive as Confidence in Fed Fades
“Investors are losing confidence in central bank policies. (They) have done all they can do, and these policies may not improve economic growth or may not support financial markets.”
— Anthony Valeri, investment strategist at LPL Financial
Zero rates and QE have stopped working and that has investors worried. Very worried.
If you want to know why stocks have been taking it on the chin lately, look no further than the quote above. Mr. Valeri nails it. The Central Banks have lost their touch which is why investors are cashing in and heading for the exits. This has nothing to do with the slowdown in China, bank troubles in Europe, capital flight in the emerging markets, droopy oil prices, or the deceleration in the global economy. Forget about that stuff. The real problem is that investors have lost confidence in the Fed. And for good reason.
Keep in mind, that for the last 5 years or so, bad news has been good news and good news has been bad news. What does that mean?
It means that every report that showed the economy was underperforming or getting worse was greeted with cheers from Wall Street because they knew the Fed would promise additional accommodation (QE) or continue to maintain zero rates into the future. The Fed conditioned investors to ignore fundamentals and merely respond to the Pavlovian promise of more cheap money. That cheap money helped fuel a rally that tripled the value of the S&P 500 while inflating asset bubbles across the spectrum. But now the impact of low rates appears to be wearing thin which has investors concerned that the Fed has run out of bullets.
Why? What changed?
In the last couple of weeks, the second and third biggest central banks (The European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan) either announced or launched additional easing programs, but to no effect. The BOJ implemented negative rates (NIRP) expecting the yen to weaken and stocks to rally. Instead, stocks fell off a cliff losing an astonishing 7.6 percent on the Nikkei while the yen strengthened by nearly 10 percent against the dollar. In other words, the results were the opposite of what the BOJ wanted.
The same thing happened to the ECB although Mario Draghi has not actually increased QE yet. The ECB is currently buying ¤60 billion of mainly sovereign bonds per month under the existing program ostensibly to trigger credit growth and boost inflation. Draghi increased speculation that he would boost the bank’s monthly purchases (by ¤15) at the World Economic Forum in January when he said:
“We have plenty of instruments. We have the determination, and the willingness of the governing council to act and deploy these instruments.”
Usually, a strong statement like that would be enough to send stocks into the stratosphere, but not this time. Since then, EU markets have tanked and the euro has strengthened against the dollar. Once again, the results have been the exact opposite of what was intended.
So the question is: If the promise of easy money and QE is no longer working in Japan or Europe, why would work in the US? Or, put differently: Has radical monetary policy lost its ability to prevent stocks from going into freefall? (The Bernanke Put)
This is what investors want to know.
Keep in mind, QE has not increased inflation in any of the countries where it’s been implemented. Nor has it boosted lending, triggered a credit expansion or strengthened growth. It’s a total fraud. But it has had a big impact on stock prices, which is why central banks love it.
But now that’s changed. Now QE is backfiring and zero rates have lost their potency. Investors know this. They know that monetary policy has run-out-the-clock and that overpriced stocks –which have been outpacing flagging earnings for years–are going to return earth with a thud. This is why the selloff could continue for some time to come.
Of course, now the focus has shifted to “negative interest rates”, the latest fad in central banking that is supposed to boost lending by charging banks a small fee on excess reserves. It’s another nutty attempt to prove that if you put money on sale, people will borrow. But what we’ve seen over the last seven years is that there are times when people won’t borrow no matter how cheap money is. The Fed can’t seem to grasp this. They can’t see to wrap their minds around the simple fact that reducing the cost of borrowing, does not always make it more desirable. Households that are trying to pay down their debts, increase their equity or save for retirement might not want to borrow regardless of how cheap the rates might be.
In any event, negative rates (NIRP) have already been implemented in Europe and Japan where the results are mixed. Here’s how Nomura’s chief economist Richard Koo summed up the phenom in his recent newsletter:
“In my view, the adoption of negative interest rates is an act of desperation born out of despair over the inability of quantitative easing and inflation targeting to produce the desired results. That monetary policy has come this far is a clear indication that both ECB President Mario Draghi and BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda have fundamentally misunderstood the ongoing recession…..” (“Macro and Credit…The Vasa Ship”, Macronomics)
Indeed. Now compare Koo’s comments to those of OECD Economic Committee Chairman, William White, who was asked what he thought the effects of negative rates would be on the economy in a recent Bloomberg interview:
William White:
“The truth is, nobody really knows. The thing about these experiments, is that they’re experiments. We have no historic precedence for this kind of behavior by central banks at all. EVER. So the answer is: We don’t know. The general idea is that if you charge negative interest rates on the reserves that the banks hold at the central banks that somehow this will translate into lower lending rate and more stimulus for the economy. But you have to realize that these negative rates will actually squeeze the banks margins, squeezing bank profits. This is something we actually don’t want because we want them to make more money so they can build up capital buffers. So what are the banks going to do?
Well, one possibility is that they lower the deposit rates for customers. That’s possible, but then people might take money out. The other possibility is that you simply raise the rate for people to borrow, which is the exact opposite for which the policy was intended. So, I repeat, this is all experimental. We’ll wait and see how it turns out. But I’m rather skeptical.”
(“OECD’s White Says More Wage Growth Attention Needed“, Bloomberg)
In other words, it’s just not a very well thought-out plan. Either the banks take the hit or the borrowers do. Either way, the plan won’t boost lending, generate a strong credit expansion or grow the economy. After seven years of this same nonsense, we should be willing to admit that reducing the price of money will not lead to an economic recovery. Of that, we can be 100 percent certain.
So, what will generate a strong recovery? This is the question Bloomberg put to White after he expressed his reservations about negative rates. Here’s his advice:
“Those who have fiscal room to maneuver, should use it.
I think there should be more attention paid to wage growth, which has been too low and so spending has been too low in consequence.
We need much more public infrastructure which is an asset to go with a government liability.
We need more systematic approaches to debt reduction and debt relief.
And we need a lot more structural reform to get that low hanging fruit to allow the economy to grow faster and to allow debt service to be more easily managed.” (“OECD’s White Says More Wage Growth Attention Needed”, Bloomberg)
Fiscal stimulus? Wage growth? Debt relief? Progressive reforms?
In other words, we’ve piddled-away seven-long years on radical monetary experiments that have achieved nothing and led us right back to where we began, at plain-old Keynesian fiscal stimulus, the only reliable way to put people back to work, stimulate growth, and get the economy back up-and-running.
Better late than never, I guess.
Mike Whitney lives in Washington state. He is a contributor to Hopeless: Barack Obama and the Politics of Illusion (AK Press). Hopeless is also available in a Kindle edition. He can be reached at fergiewhitney@msn.com.
http://www.globalresearch(...)in-fed-fades/5507985
“Investors are losing confidence in central bank policies. (They) have done all they can do, and these policies may not improve economic growth or may not support financial markets.”
— Anthony Valeri, investment strategist at LPL Financial
Zero rates and QE have stopped working and that has investors worried. Very worried.
If you want to know why stocks have been taking it on the chin lately, look no further than the quote above. Mr. Valeri nails it. The Central Banks have lost their touch which is why investors are cashing in and heading for the exits. This has nothing to do with the slowdown in China, bank troubles in Europe, capital flight in the emerging markets, droopy oil prices, or the deceleration in the global economy. Forget about that stuff. The real problem is that investors have lost confidence in the Fed. And for good reason.
Keep in mind, that for the last 5 years or so, bad news has been good news and good news has been bad news. What does that mean?
It means that every report that showed the economy was underperforming or getting worse was greeted with cheers from Wall Street because they knew the Fed would promise additional accommodation (QE) or continue to maintain zero rates into the future. The Fed conditioned investors to ignore fundamentals and merely respond to the Pavlovian promise of more cheap money. That cheap money helped fuel a rally that tripled the value of the S&P 500 while inflating asset bubbles across the spectrum. But now the impact of low rates appears to be wearing thin which has investors concerned that the Fed has run out of bullets.
Why? What changed?
In the last couple of weeks, the second and third biggest central banks (The European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan) either announced or launched additional easing programs, but to no effect. The BOJ implemented negative rates (NIRP) expecting the yen to weaken and stocks to rally. Instead, stocks fell off a cliff losing an astonishing 7.6 percent on the Nikkei while the yen strengthened by nearly 10 percent against the dollar. In other words, the results were the opposite of what the BOJ wanted.
The same thing happened to the ECB although Mario Draghi has not actually increased QE yet. The ECB is currently buying ¤60 billion of mainly sovereign bonds per month under the existing program ostensibly to trigger credit growth and boost inflation. Draghi increased speculation that he would boost the bank’s monthly purchases (by ¤15) at the World Economic Forum in January when he said:
“We have plenty of instruments. We have the determination, and the willingness of the governing council to act and deploy these instruments.”
Usually, a strong statement like that would be enough to send stocks into the stratosphere, but not this time. Since then, EU markets have tanked and the euro has strengthened against the dollar. Once again, the results have been the exact opposite of what was intended.
So the question is: If the promise of easy money and QE is no longer working in Japan or Europe, why would work in the US? Or, put differently: Has radical monetary policy lost its ability to prevent stocks from going into freefall? (The Bernanke Put)
This is what investors want to know.
Keep in mind, QE has not increased inflation in any of the countries where it’s been implemented. Nor has it boosted lending, triggered a credit expansion or strengthened growth. It’s a total fraud. But it has had a big impact on stock prices, which is why central banks love it.
But now that’s changed. Now QE is backfiring and zero rates have lost their potency. Investors know this. They know that monetary policy has run-out-the-clock and that overpriced stocks –which have been outpacing flagging earnings for years–are going to return earth with a thud. This is why the selloff could continue for some time to come.
Of course, now the focus has shifted to “negative interest rates”, the latest fad in central banking that is supposed to boost lending by charging banks a small fee on excess reserves. It’s another nutty attempt to prove that if you put money on sale, people will borrow. But what we’ve seen over the last seven years is that there are times when people won’t borrow no matter how cheap money is. The Fed can’t seem to grasp this. They can’t see to wrap their minds around the simple fact that reducing the cost of borrowing, does not always make it more desirable. Households that are trying to pay down their debts, increase their equity or save for retirement might not want to borrow regardless of how cheap the rates might be.
In any event, negative rates (NIRP) have already been implemented in Europe and Japan where the results are mixed. Here’s how Nomura’s chief economist Richard Koo summed up the phenom in his recent newsletter:
“In my view, the adoption of negative interest rates is an act of desperation born out of despair over the inability of quantitative easing and inflation targeting to produce the desired results. That monetary policy has come this far is a clear indication that both ECB President Mario Draghi and BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda have fundamentally misunderstood the ongoing recession…..” (“Macro and Credit…The Vasa Ship”, Macronomics)
Indeed. Now compare Koo’s comments to those of OECD Economic Committee Chairman, William White, who was asked what he thought the effects of negative rates would be on the economy in a recent Bloomberg interview:
William White:
“The truth is, nobody really knows. The thing about these experiments, is that they’re experiments. We have no historic precedence for this kind of behavior by central banks at all. EVER. So the answer is: We don’t know. The general idea is that if you charge negative interest rates on the reserves that the banks hold at the central banks that somehow this will translate into lower lending rate and more stimulus for the economy. But you have to realize that these negative rates will actually squeeze the banks margins, squeezing bank profits. This is something we actually don’t want because we want them to make more money so they can build up capital buffers. So what are the banks going to do?
Well, one possibility is that they lower the deposit rates for customers. That’s possible, but then people might take money out. The other possibility is that you simply raise the rate for people to borrow, which is the exact opposite for which the policy was intended. So, I repeat, this is all experimental. We’ll wait and see how it turns out. But I’m rather skeptical.”
(“OECD’s White Says More Wage Growth Attention Needed“, Bloomberg)
In other words, it’s just not a very well thought-out plan. Either the banks take the hit or the borrowers do. Either way, the plan won’t boost lending, generate a strong credit expansion or grow the economy. After seven years of this same nonsense, we should be willing to admit that reducing the price of money will not lead to an economic recovery. Of that, we can be 100 percent certain.
So, what will generate a strong recovery? This is the question Bloomberg put to White after he expressed his reservations about negative rates. Here’s his advice:
“Those who have fiscal room to maneuver, should use it.
I think there should be more attention paid to wage growth, which has been too low and so spending has been too low in consequence.
We need much more public infrastructure which is an asset to go with a government liability.
We need more systematic approaches to debt reduction and debt relief.
And we need a lot more structural reform to get that low hanging fruit to allow the economy to grow faster and to allow debt service to be more easily managed.” (“OECD’s White Says More Wage Growth Attention Needed”, Bloomberg)
Fiscal stimulus? Wage growth? Debt relief? Progressive reforms?
In other words, we’ve piddled-away seven-long years on radical monetary experiments that have achieved nothing and led us right back to where we began, at plain-old Keynesian fiscal stimulus, the only reliable way to put people back to work, stimulate growth, and get the economy back up-and-running.
Better late than never, I guess.
Mike Whitney lives in Washington state. He is a contributor to Hopeless: Barack Obama and the Politics of Illusion (AK Press). Hopeless is also available in a Kindle edition. He can be reached at fergiewhitney@msn.com.
http://www.globalresearch(...)in-fed-fades/5507985
-
Het is....19 febr.2016quote:
[..]
Ja en morgen of overmorgen stort het kaartenhuis weer in
AMSTERDAM -
De AEX-index bleef richting het eind van de vrijdagmiddag ruim in het rood hangen. Het waren opnieuw de inmiddels welbekende spelbrekers die het sentiment parten speelden: een daling in de olieprijzen en zorgen over de Europese bankensector. Ook onzekerheid over de uitkomst van het topoverleg tussen de EU en de Britten maakte beleggers terughoudend. Delta Lloyd was de ster in de AEX, terwijl Boskalis een dreun kreeg van beleggers.
En alles is weer in het gebruikelijke rood, de voorzichtige plusjes van de afgelopen dagen zijn weer zo goed als teniet gedaan.
Het blijft lachen
Nou martin de komende weken is het jouw feestje? qua voorspellingen
There is only one religion
Ik post nu ook af en toe in het beurs topic. Die gasten daar geloven serieus dat er geen enkele economische reden is voor een dalende AEX. Bizar om te zien dat mensen in zulke verschillende werelden kunnen leven.quote:
[..]
Het is....19 febr.2016
AMSTERDAM -
De AEX-index bleef richting het eind van de vrijdagmiddag ruim in het rood hangen. Het waren opnieuw de inmiddels welbekende spelbrekers die het sentiment parten speelden: een daling in de olieprijzen en zorgen over de Europese bankensector. Ook onzekerheid over de uitkomst van het topoverleg tussen de EU en de Britten maakte beleggers terughoudend. Delta Lloyd was de ster in de AEX, terwijl Boskalis een dreun kreeg van beleggers.
En alles is weer in het gebruikelijke rood, de voorzichtige plusjes van de afgelopen dagen zijn weer zo goed als teniet gedaan.
Het blijft lachen
Nou martin de komende weken is het jouw feestje? qua voorspellingen
Feyenoord!
quote:
[..]
Ik post nu ook af en toe in het beurs topic. Die gasten daar geloven serieus dat er geen enkele economische reden is voor een dalende AEX. Bizar om te zien dat mensen in zulke verschillende werelden kunnen leven.
zie afbeeldingquote:
There is only one religion
Was ook een hele hoge, lang-gerekte golfquote:
[..]
Ja maar het is in 2008 al gebeurd. Mensen hebben blijkbaar een erg kort geheugen.
He maar het gaat goed met de economie hoor (proest)
There is only one religion
Wat telt als ten onder?
Op dinsdag 1 november 2016 00:05 schreef JanCees het volgende:
De polls worden ook in 9 van de 10 gevallen gepeild met een meerderheid democraten. Soms zelf +10% _O-
De polls worden ook in 9 van de 10 gevallen gepeild met een meerderheid democraten. Soms zelf +10% _O-
QUESTION:
Dear Martin Armstrong,
I appreciate very much your economic analysis and read your blog nearly daily although I disagree with some of your political statements.
In your last blog about Schengen you mention that “Everything is connected and nothing takes place in some isolated vacuum”. Obvious.
According to me, and many others re-known economists like Joseph Stiglizt or Paul Krugman, one of the problems in the current world is the exponential increase of social inequality and massive collection of wealth in few hands.
How is it possible that barely the 60 richest people can have the same wealth as half of the population (3.6 billion)? Is this acceptable? What would be the solution in your opinion? Because just free markets will reinforce not decrease the actual trend and you seem to be “socialist”-averse although some sort of redistribution of wealth should be done, I suppose, but how?.
Thanks for your great work
BR
ANSWER: This is a Marxist diversion. It focuses only on the “rich” and ignores the fact that government continues to expand and consume wealth. The “wealth” that everyone points to for the richest people is by no means a product of WAGES, rather it is created on paper valuations of investment. At the same time, that “wealth” dropped $1 trillion just in the January decline this year. It is NOT actual “money” in that sense. It is no different than your home being worth $500,000 one day and then $200,000 a month later.
“Social inequality” remains the headline grabber, yet the larger government becomes, the lower the economic growth. The OECD itself illustrates this. Higher taxes reduce economic growth, plain and simple. Then we have the average person who is robbed by about 50%+ between income taxes (federal and state), property taxes, fees, tools, and sales taxes. All of this goes to sustain government; it does NOT raise the living standard of the average person. Europe is even worse.
I tried to save Social Security on Capitol Hill. I argued to convert it to a wealth fund and allow it to invest exactly as the “rich” employ their money rather than stuffing it with depreciating government bonds. When I DONATED my time on Capitol Hill, the Dow was 1,000. That would now be 17 times more and amply enough to retired on. Social Security goes bust next year, and with interest rates manipulated lower you will get nothing.
Then the government charges payroll taxes on the average worker. Sure, they hand you a refund check at year-end. So they are borrowing from the average person and NOT paying them any interest. The government robs your ability to save and grow “rich” by stuffing your money in government bonds under Social Security.
Government creates “social inequality” by robbing the poor and middle classes while pretending to care. If we eliminated government federal income taxes, most people would take home at least 30% more.
The problem is NOT that the “rich” make money from investment; it is that the rest of society is DENIED the right to invest to get ahead because the government is bleeding everyone dry. Take all the money from the “rich” and we end up with communism, which will not improve your life in the least. So you do not stand a chance of surviving the future unless we start looking at the real culprit here. This is like a baseball game: the pitcher only focuses on the batter while those on base are stealing the next one unnoticed. We need to pay attention before there is no future for our posterity. Thank God I am not 18. I really do not want to live in a world run in this manner. This is not like Star Trek: “Scotty. Beam me up PLEASE!“
Categories: Armstrong Economics 101, Basic Concepts
https://www.armstrongecon(...)actually-creates-it/
There is only one religion
QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I attended your May 1999 seminar in London. I am the person who asked you when would Britain exit the EU. You said not before 2016. Can you elaborate on how you could have possibly foreseen this event coming in June? You have won my full attention. By the way, this is now all anyone talks about in London. Exiting the EU which is overrun with Islamic terrorists.
Cheers
BCM
ANSWER: Well, what is really fascinating is how the fundamentals FIT the forecast. It is not trying to forecast the fundamentals. I believe it is like good news in a stock in a bear market. It still declines and the excuse is it was not good enough. Fundamentals are interpreted by the mood of the trend. It is wrong to assume you need for forecast the fundamental to get the trend. It is all about the mood and how will the public receive it.
Britain entered the EU in 1973. Half the 8.6 year cycle is 4.3. It was lining up with our forecast back then that 2016 would be the first shot at a potential third party emerging or an anti-establishment trend. That forecast perhaps gained the most attention since we warned that Ross Perot 2.0 would be coming in 2016. Again, nobody can predict that it would be Donald Trump. It is not Donald Trump that is really the issue. It could be anyone. It is the timing that makeS such a message resonate with the population.
Additionally, if you add 86 years to 1973, there was no possible way Europe could have lasted that long until 2059. That will probably be a major political turn for Britain once again. However, it is hard to say what from this distance in time. I would suspect that it will be some sort of reorganization of Europe which could be the redrawing of borders and dramatic change in politics and could even threaten the royalty.
Therefore, adding 43 years to 1973 brings us to 2016. Britain’s exit simply lined up with everything and was part of “Big Bang” we forecast to start 2015.75. Everything was lining up to start with 2015.75 from the 17.2 years post launch of the Euro to the start of the War Cycle. Here is the slide from the 1998 world conference tour.
Categories: European Union, World Events
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/brext-on-schedule/
There is only one religion
Nog maar enkele dagen te gaan. Spannend.quote:
Euro Crisis
The euro crisis appears to be unfolding right on target rather amazingly. Our target was published in “The Rise and Fall of the Euro” back in 2011. The target for the collapse in confidence was 2016.202. This comes into play March 13/14, 2016.
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knip
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Een vrij harde voorspelling dit.
I'm surrounded by morons!
TRV plannen/geboekt 2026: Peru, België, Nederland, St. Maarten
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Zou er een betaal termijn van griekenland aan zitten te komen wat men niet kan voldoen?quote:
[..]
Nog maar enkele dagen te gaan. Spannend.
We gaan het zien. Vanavond zijn blog weer eens bekijken. Even een tijdje niet gedaan.quote:
[..]
Nog maar enkele dagen te gaan. Spannend.
De Europese Centrale Bank (ECB) staat voor een enorm dilemma. De inflatie blijft dalen, de economie trekt maar matig aan en dus klinkt de roep om meer actie. Maar de munitie is eigenlijk op. De ultralage rente kan eigenlijk niet verder omlaag en het opkopen van staatsobligaties zorgt alleen maar voor een zee aan ongebruikt geld in de eurozone.quote:[quote]
[..]
Nog maar enkele dagen te gaan. Spannend.
De inflatieverwachtingen zijn verslechterd en de economische groeiverwachtingen in de eurozone zijn verlaagd. Niets doen is niet geloofwaardig, meer doen ook niet. Vandaag en morgen vergadert de ECB en er moet toch een besluit vallen.
Het ongekend agressieve monetair beleid van de ECB van rente en geld drijft de inflatie niet op en helpt de economie niet meer vooruit. Sinds vorig jaar maart pompt de ECB maand in maand uit circa 60 miljard euro in de eurozone, in ruil voor staatsobligaties in het bezit van financiële instellingen. Het idee is dat banken en investeerders daarmee geld vrijspelen om dat uit te lenen aan bedrijven en consumenten. De lage rente maakt krediet extra goedkoop.
Boeterente
Om banken extra te stimuleren geld in de economie te steken moeten ze sinds kort geld betalen, een boeterente van 0,3 procent, als ze ongebruikte miljarden tijdelijk bij de ECB op de rekening zetten. Het weerhoudt de banken er niet van om elk dag 200 tot 250 miljard euro weg te zetten in Frankfurt. Kosten: twee miljoen euro per dag aan boeterente.
Aanvankelijk leek dit recept van rente en geld effect te hebben, maar inmiddels lijkt het uitgewerkt. De ECB kan niet opboksen tegen de lage olieprijs die de inflatie onderuit trekt of tegen de zorgen over een verzwakkende Chinese economie en minder wereldhandel.
Ook de basisrente, die nu op een ongekend lage 0,05 procent staat, kan eigenlijk niet lager - in ieder geval heeft dat geen enkele zin. En meer geld erin pompen klinkt wel ferm maar doet dus niks. De ECB heeft namelijk voor bijna 800 miljard euro schuldpapieren opgekocht, maar 90 procent daarvan, zo'n 700 miljard euro, ligt ongebruikt op de plank. Het geld klotst tegen de plinten, maar je koopt er niks voor.
Draghi is aan het eind van zijn Latijn.
ABN Amro topman Gerrit Zalm
Het probleem is ook niet een tekort aan geld, maar de vraag is domweg niet groot. Het weerspiegelt het zwakke economische sentiment. Sterker, zeggen banken en economen, de enorme hoeveelheid goedkoop geld stimuleert niet meer, maar richt juist schade aan. "Draghi is aan het eind van zijn Latijn", mopperde ABN Amro-topman Gerrit Zalm bij de presentatie van zijn jaarcijfers.
Ook de BIS, de Bank for International Settlements, zegt maar de centrale bank der centrale banken, is ongewoon kritisch. De negatieve rente van de ECB en andere centrale banken baart de BIS zorgen. Centrale banken hebben hun kruit verschoten en blijken niet in staat om de nervositeit op financiële markten te beteugelen: "Markten verliezen hun vertrouwen in de helende kracht van centrale banken."
De lage inflatie en de lage kredietkosten mogen dan fijn zijn voor de koopkracht, maar aan de andere kant krijgen spaarders amper rente op hun spaargeld. Pensioenfondsen zitten in zwaar weer en korten op de pensioenen, de financiële markten stuiteren op en neer.
Binnen de ECB is er een stammenstrijd gaande. De preciezen, zoals Nederland en Duitsland, willen het liefst kappen met dit ineffectieve monetaire beleid. Stoppen met nog meer gekke dingen doen zonder resultaat. De rekkelijken, vooral zuidelijke landen, willen juist meer. De lage rente komt het zuiden bijzonder goed uit, het noorden heeft er vooral last van.
Markten verliezen hun vertrouwen in de helende kracht van centrale banken.
Claudio Borio, hoofd monetaire en economische afdeling van de BIS
De suggestie van sommigen om het monetaire beleid van rente en geld bijdrukken te vervangen door 'helikoptergeld' klinkt sympathiek, zo van "geen gezeik iedereen rijk", maar het mag niet. Elke burger een paar duizend euro op zijn rekening storten, naar believen te besteden, behoort niet tot het mandaat van de ECB.
Landen kunnen burgers trakteren op geld, belastingverlagingen of subsidies, maar de centrale bank kan dat niet. Bovendien is het verslavend: als het op is, wil je meer.
Een andere bijwerking van al dat goedkope geld is dat het overheden lui maakt en niet aanzet tot broodnodige hervormingen. Immers: het geld komt toch wel.
Bermuda-driehoek
ECB-president Mario Draghi zit in het kamp van de rekkelijken en heeft met allerlei toespelingen al te kennen gegeven op de ingeslagen weg verder te willen. Hij blijft dus draaien aan de renteknop en de geldkraan gaat verder of langer open. De ECB is een soort terra incognita ingelopen. Niemand weet waar naartoe en waar het eindigt.
Doorgaans wordt het monetaire beleid getoetst op drie punten: de noodzaak van een beslissing, de effectiviteit ervan, en de bijwerkingen. Maar die driehoek lijkt inmiddels een soort Bermuda-driehoek geworden, waarin geld, beleid en principes zomaar verdwijnen.
[/quote]
Bron: http://nos.nl/artikel/209(...)-voor-geen-zier.htmlquote:INFLATIE
In een goed draaiende economie is er sprake van stijgende prijzen. Er is vraag naar allerlei goederen en diensten, bedrijven en winkels proberen aan de vraag te voldoen. De ECB heeft als doelstelling een inflatie van rond de twee procent.
Momenteel is er als gevolg van de lage olieprijzen en de matige economische groei geen inflatie maar deflatie: de prijzen dalen. In de ogen van de ECB is dit een zorgelijke ontwikkeling. Via de rente wordt geprobeerd de inflatie op te krikken en de vraag aan te wakkeren.
[ Bericht 4% gewijzigd door #ANONIEM op 09-03-2016 20:36:38 ]
21-12-2012 krijgt een nieuwe wending 
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Δημοσθένης
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=18FgnFVm5k0&fmt=37&hd=1&autoplay=1
Δημοσθένης
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=18FgnFVm5k0&fmt=37&hd=1&autoplay=1
