Hebben we al popcorn, city-cams en dopler-images.quote:Op dinsdag 22 juni 2010 11:19 schreef Frutsel het volgende:
Drugshond
Interessant...quote:Models different: Large Hurricane in Gulf possible... or not?
I wrote yesterday that little global model support existed for the tropical wave that is lurking in the eastern Caribbean Sea. That is beginning to change. A tremendous amount of energy is gathering in the region over water that is exceptionally warm for this time of year. What I am beginning to see in the computer models is beginning to concern me.
First of all, the upper level pattern is evolving in a manner which would allow for development. A large area of light winds aloft is setting in across the western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico over the next several days and this could allow for the system, labeled 93L, to get going. The track suggests a movement across the Caribbean Sea and possibly towards the Yucatan peninsula. From there, the global models that recognize the potential for development turn the system northward in to the Gulf of Mexico. This is certainly going to cause a stir once news begins to spread of this potential. In fact, the very latest ECMWF model, linked here suggests we really need to keep an eye on the evolution of this feature. I am not going to sugar coat the reality here- there is potential for a significant storm or even a hurricane somewhere in the Gulf of Mexico over the next week. This is not a season to pretend the hurricanes away and worry about being sensational. Water temps are well above normal, ocean heat content is already very high and to see this kind of activity originating from an African tropical wave in June is very serious.
n the short term, Haiti and surrounding land masses are in for periods of heavy, tropical rains. This is not at all what is needed down there in light of the devastating earthquake. It is going to take a while for this system to move past the area as it is not moving very fast.
In addition, another strong tropical wave well east of the Lesser Antilles is beginning to flare up. It went from being bone-dry (embedded in fairly substantial dry air known as SAL for Saharan Air Layer) to bursting with convection in a hurry. There is going to be a lot to keep up with this last week of June.
Hier sturen ze hem ook steeds meer de Golf in.quote:Op woensdag 23 juni 2010 14:48 schreef Frutsel het volgende:
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Voorlopige uitdraai voor 28e... waar ligt die daar voor de kust? New Orleans?
leuk met onweer erbij.. extra vuurwerk?quote:Op woensdag 23 juni 2010 19:20 schreef aloa het volgende:
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Hier sturen ze hem ook steeds meer de Golf in.
De kans dat de olie straks door de lucht vliegt wordt steeds groter.
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quote:Op woensdag 23 juni 2010 19:20 schreef aloa het volgende:
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Hier sturen ze hem ook steeds meer de Golf in.
De kans dat de olie straks door de lucht vliegt wordt steeds groter.
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Daar leert men niets van... helaas.quote:Op woensdag 23 juni 2010 21:44 schreef Revolution-NL het volgende:
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Nature stricks back!!
Laten we hopen dat de mensheid hier iets van leert.
quote:A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND THE ADJACENT
WATERS OF THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ALTHOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION OF THE WAVE APPEARS TO BE IMPROVING...THE ASSOCIATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY STILL LACKS ORGANIZATION AND IS LOCATED MAINLY TO
THE EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS TENTATIVELY
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO AFFECTING PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS BUT ARE NOT DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVE.
Yupquote:Op woensdag 23 juni 2010 14:48 schreef Frutsel het volgende:
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Voorlopige uitdraai voor 28e... waar ligt die daar voor de kust? New Orleans?
De olie komt dan gewoon letterlijk uit de lucht vallenquote:Op woensdag 23 juni 2010 23:07 schreef aloa het volgende:
Ik vraag me af wat er met die olie gebeurt als er een orkaan overheen trekt. Als hier een storm van windkracht 10 overtrekt, dan zit het zout ook tot ver in het land op de ramen.
En dat over een behoorlijke afstand.quote:Op donderdag 24 juni 2010 10:59 schreef Revolution-NL het volgende:
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De olie komt dan gewoon letterlijk uit de lucht vallen
quote:The first signs of development could happen any time from later today through Saturday, perhaps followed by rapid strengthening early next week.
A track of a hurricane toward the central or southeastern Louisiana coast would be the worst case scenario given the current situation. Counterclockwise flow around the storm would bring significant amounts of water (and oil and tar balls) onshore as a surge. Winds in the northeastern quadrant of a hurricane moving northward are typically the strongest and would also be a concern.
Speculation will continue as to what would happen if a hurricane tracks over an oil slick the size of the spill in the northern Gulf of Mexico. However, it appears likely that we will all get an education this season, sooner or later.
http://www.accuweather.co(...)-storm-hurrica-1.asp
quote:Op vrijdag 25 juni 2010 04:46 schreef Vogue het volgende:
Alex komt er toch echt aan hoor.... Gestegen tot 60% en nu het warmere wateren binnenkomt ga ik er 99% vanuit dat het een orkaan gaat worden,
Aan de Pacific kant is Celia gestegen tot een categorie 5 en is Darby geupgrade naar een categorie 1.
quote:8 PM EDT Update 24 June 2010
The wave now entering the west Caribbean (93L) has reached far enough west to kick up the chances to 60%, if it were to develop tomorrow seems the most likely time, especially if it develops convection overnight.
It is expected to near Honduras/Nicaragua, but stay to the north and head into the Yucatan, it likely will have a chance to develop then. Once back in the gulf it may have a chance to strengthen, but it seems shear/dry air may enter into the equation the further north it gets. Those in the Yucatan and Gulf states need to monitor the wave.
7 AM EDT Update 24 June 2010
The wave in the Caribbean, with an apparent low level circulation southwest of Jamaica, is still holding on, but is taking the slow road toward development. The window for development is tonight through Saturday. The most likely scenario, still, is for it to enter the Yucatan with rain, and it may not develop before it gets there (or very late).
Models are very divergent on where it may eventually go, but the weaker condition of the storm suggests more westerly into the Yucatan. In short, in common with most undeveloped systems, they are still mostly unhelpful.
In short not much has changed with this all week, and it is still very worth watching in the Gulf and Yucatan for changes.
Currently Recon is scheduled to go out there this afternoon, it may be canceled if it doesn't look more organized close to then
Zondag op Maandag denk ikquote:Op vrijdag 25 juni 2010 08:41 schreef Revolution-NL het volgende:
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Wanneer komt hij over de golf van Mexico is de verwachting?
Wat een monsterquote:
Idd.. en dat nu al in juni..quote:Op vrijdag 25 juni 2010 09:22 schreef Frutsel het volgende:
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Wat een monster
Apart dat ze hem eerst als cat.2 classificeren... dan ineens als 3... dan weer 2 en nu ineens ee vijf
Tis volgens mij de 2e Cat.5 orkaan in de geschiedenis van de Oostpacific, die ontstaat in Juni. Alleen orkaan Ava uit 1973 ontstond eerder dan Celiaquote:
Wow .. zeldzaam dusquote:Op vrijdag 25 juni 2010 11:21 schreef Frutsel het volgende:
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Tis volgens mij de 2e Cat.5 orkaan in de geschiedenis van de Oostpacific, die ontstaat in Juni. Alleen orkaan Ava uit 1973 ontstond eerder dan Celia
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