Hurricane Season 2010 - Things are about to change...

inmiddels opgewaardeerd naar Tropical Storm Darby



volgt Celia die langzaam lijkt uit te doven

Atlantic Tropical Storm/Hurricane Formation Possible by the End of June

Judging by the overall weather pattern and ideas from several computer models, the odds are increasing for tropical cyclone formation in the western Atlantic Basin before the end of the month.

At the very least, a period of rough seas and strong thunderstorms will affect part of the Gulf of Mexico next week.

AccuWeather.com Hurricane and Long Range Expert Meteorologist Joe Bastardi assimilates the current weather pattern in the Atlantic Basin to a "tropical brew that is ready to boil over."

Water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean and the Southwest Atlantic are already very warm, compared to normal.

Tropical waves of low pressure rolling westward from Africa are already very active and are progressively becoming more vigorous.

One wave, bound to cause trouble, is currently drifting slowly westward through the central Caribbean and will deliver gusty, drenching thunderstorms to Hispaniola, where Haiti is located, today.



There is an abundance of showers and thunderstorms in the Caribbean, which represents plenty of "potential energy" for tropical cyclone formation.

Some computer models are developing the tropical wave in the Caribbean later this week.

These models go so far as to spin up the first tropical storm of the Atlantic season. At least one of these models develops a hurricane over the Gulf of Mexico between the 28th and 30th.

The first name on the 2010 list in the Atlantic is "Alex."

Another tropical system is forecast by computer models to take shape shortly thereafter east of the Bahamas.

Bastardi has warned of the potential for 20 tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Basin this season. Tropical cyclones are tropical storms and hurricanes; in other words, named systems.



While the oil spill area and other coastal regions and islands will dodge some bullets, the odds of multiple tropical storms and/or hurricanes tracking over the oil spill and other locations are exceptionally high this year, due to the number of named systems expected.

Disruptions caused by multiple hurricanes to oil spill cleanup and containment operations are one matter, the potential damage and destruction to coastal areas from wind and storm surge near and well away from the oil slick, takes this season to a whole new level.

Residents, business owners and government officials need to have a plan of action for what may be an exceptional hurricane season.

While the strength of the system forecast to enter the Gulf of Mexico late this weekend into early next week is questionable, there is the risk of squalls and building seas in the vicinity of the oil slick and cleanup/containment operations for up to a several-day period.

Bron

quote:

Models different: Large Hurricane in Gulf possible... or not?
I wrote yesterday that little global model support existed for the tropical wave that is lurking in the eastern Caribbean Sea. That is beginning to change. A tremendous amount of energy is gathering in the region over water that is exceptionally warm for this time of year. What I am beginning to see in the computer models is beginning to concern me.

First of all, the upper level pattern is evolving in a manner which would allow for development. A large area of light winds aloft is setting in across the western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico over the next several days and this could allow for the system, labeled 93L, to get going. The track suggests a movement across the Caribbean Sea and possibly towards the Yucatan peninsula. From there, the global models that recognize the potential for development turn the system northward in to the Gulf of Mexico. This is certainly going to cause a stir once news begins to spread of this potential. In fact, the very latest ECMWF model, linked here suggests we really need to keep an eye on the evolution of this feature. I am not going to sugar coat the reality here- there is potential for a significant storm or even a hurricane somewhere in the Gulf of Mexico over the next week. This is not a season to pretend the hurricanes away and worry about being sensational. Water temps are well above normal, ocean heat content is already very high and to see this kind of activity originating from an African tropical wave in June is very serious.

n the short term, Haiti and surrounding land masses are in for periods of heavy, tropical rains. This is not at all what is needed down there in light of the devastating earthquake. It is going to take a while for this system to move past the area as it is not moving very fast.

In addition, another strong tropical wave well east of the Lesser Antilles is beginning to flare up. It went from being bone-dry (embedded in fairly substantial dry air known as SAL for Saharan Air Layer) to bursting with convection in a hurry. There is going to be a lot to keep up with this last week of June.

Interessant...

Voorlopige uitdraai voor 28e... waar ligt die daar voor de kust? New Orleans?

quote:

8 PM EDT Update 24 June 2010
The wave now entering the west Caribbean (93L) has reached far enough west to kick up the chances to 60%, if it were to develop tomorrow seems the most likely time, especially if it develops convection overnight.

It is expected to near Honduras/Nicaragua, but stay to the north and head into the Yucatan, it likely will have a chance to develop then. Once back in the gulf it may have a chance to strengthen, but it seems shear/dry air may enter into the equation the further north it gets. Those in the Yucatan and Gulf states need to monitor the wave.

7 AM EDT Update 24 June 2010
The wave in the Caribbean, with an apparent low level circulation southwest of Jamaica, is still holding on, but is taking the slow road toward development. The window for development is tonight through Saturday. The most likely scenario, still, is for it to enter the Yucatan with rain, and it may not develop before it gets there (or very late).

Models are very divergent on where it may eventually go, but the weaker condition of the storm suggests more westerly into the Yucatan. In short, in common with most undeveloped systems, they are still mostly unhelpful.

In short not much has changed with this all week, and it is still very worth watching in the Gulf and Yucatan for changes.

Currently Recon is scheduled to go out there this afternoon, it may be canceled if it doesn't look more organized close to then

quote:

Op vrijdag 25 juni 2010 08:41 schreef Revolution-NL het volgende:

[..]

Wanneer komt hij over de golf van Mexico is de verwachting?

Zondag op Maandag denk ik

quote:

Op vrijdag 25 juni 2010 08:09 schreef aloa het volgende:
Cat 5 inderdaad.

[ afbeelding ]

Wat een monster
Apart dat ze hem eerst als cat.2 classificeren... dan ineens als 3... dan weer 2 en nu ineens ee vijf

quote:

Op vrijdag 25 juni 2010 10:25 schreef SoldMayor het volgende:

[..]

Idd.. en dat nu al in juni..

Tis volgens mij de 2e Cat.5 orkaan in de geschiedenis van de Oostpacific, die ontstaat in Juni. Alleen orkaan Ava uit 1973 ontstond eerder dan Celia

70-10 is inmiddels dus 80-20 geworden

Celia links, Darby rechts...

quote:

As Tropical Storm Alex pushes northwestward, it will unleash tremendous thunderstorms, torrential downpours, and flooding to portions of Central America and southeastern Mexico this weekend.

The large, slow-moving nature of Alex could result in great loss of life in unprotected, unsuspecting areas.

Big, slow-moving, repeating thunderstorms will fire over the water and nearby areas from Honduras, Guatemala and Belize to Mexico's Yucatan, Chiapas, Campeche, Quintana Roo and Tabasco states.

Daytime heating, combined with excess tropical moisture, will fuel the thunderstorms over land areas, while the tropical nature of the system will brew thunderstorms over nearby waters. A circulation around Alex will drive the ocean-bred thunderstorms onshore.

While the developing situation is of great concern to the Gulf of Mexico early next week, the immediate concern for these countries is that of life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.



Renewed strengthening of Alex is expected over the southwest Gulf of Mexico early next week. Alex is forecast by AccuWeather.com to become a strong tropical storm or hurricane before a second landfall next week on a track favoring a more westward, rather than northward movement.

The size, strength and track of Alex over the southwest Gulf of Mexico next week will determine the amount of rainfall and the nature of flooding in the Vera Cruz, Nuevo Leon and Tamaulipas states in Mexico and perhaps part of the Texas coast of the U.S.

While Alex is still being pushed steadily along by stronger-than-usual easterlies, as the storm moves more to the northwest with time, the tropical easterly flow weakens and could result in decreased forward speed of the storm from mid- to late week. Hence, the continued concern for flooding.