Hurricane Season 2006 #2

Mooi plaatje die helene is van ons

mjah, tegen de tijd dat ze daar aankomt is het niets meer ben ik bang

Helene zou ons wel eens kunnen bezoeken met een storm

En die storm gaat aan onze neus voorbij

315 km/h?? valt mee

Tyfoon Xangsane op weg naar Vietnam

AMSTERDAM - Vietnam is begonnen met het evacueren van 180 duizend mensen omdat de orkaan Xangsane nadert vanaf de Fillippijnen. Daar zijn de afgelopen dagen 63 mensen overleden en zeventig mensen vermist als gevolg van de orkaan.

De autoriteiten hopen de evacuatie binnen een dag af te ronden. Zorgen zijn er nog om de 522 vissersboten met aan boord 4800 mensen, die nog op zee zijn. Militairen helpen vissers die in de havens arriveren om hun schepen veilig op het droge te brengen.


Xangsane, met windsnelheden tot 120 kilometer per uur, wordt zondag in Vietnam verwacht. Naast zware wind worden ook enorme regenbuien verwacht.



Nog veel vermisten na tyfoon Filipijnen
MANILLA - Het dodental tengevolge van de tyfoon Xangsane, die donderdag over het noordelijke deel van de Filipijnen raasde, is vrijdag opgelopen tot 48, terwijl tientallen mensen worden vermist.


Scholen, kantoren en financiële instellingen bleven vrijdag voor de tweede achtereenvolgende dag gesloten. Door de storm werden bomen ontworteld en ontstonden overstromingen en aardverschuivingen. Manilla en twee provincies hebben de noodtoestand uitgeroepen om een beroep te kunnen doen op rampenfondsen. Er zijn mariniers ingezet om bewoners te helpen met het opruimen van de ravage.

De meeste doden vielen in de provincie Laguna ten zuiden van Manilla. In de plaats Santa Rosa kwamen minstens negentien mensen om bij overstromingen en aardverschuivingen en in vijf andere plaatsen vielen nog vijftien doden. In Laguna worden verder nog 29 mensen vermist. De kustwacht meldde dat een jacht met minstens zes personen aan boord is verdwenen in de Baai van Manilla. Ook een opvarende van een boot die zonk in de provincie Batangas wordt vermist.

Onder de andere vermisten zijn zeker dertig mensen die in de plaats General Trias op een dijk stonden te kijken hoe huizen door overstromingen werden weggeslagen toen de dijk het begaf. Slechts een lijk werd geborgen.

Het noordelijke eiland Luzon, waar Manilla ligt, kwam donderdag zonder elektriciteit te zitten, maar vrijdag was een derde van het gebied weer voorzien.

De tyfoon zwakte op weg naar de Zuid-Chinese Zee richting Vietnam af tot een tropische storm, maar nam vrijdag weer in kracht toe, met windkracht 120 en windstoten tot 150 kilometer per uur. Vietnam trof vrijdag voorbereidingen om duizenden mensen uit zijn centrale kustgebied te evacueren, waar de tyfoon zondag wordt verwacht. Volgens de directeur van de meteorologische dienst is Xangsane even krachtig als de tyfoon Chanchu, die in mei aan naar schatting 270 Vietnamezen, merendeels vissers, het leven heeft gekost. Slechts van twintig vissers zijn de lijken gevonden.

Leuk en wel maar

quote:

Op zaterdag 30 september 2006 12:45 schreef Frutsel het volgende:


De tyfoon zwakte op weg naar de Zuid-Chinese Zee richting Vietnam af tot een tropische storm, maar nam vrijdag weer in kracht toe, met windkracht 120 en windstoten tot 150 kilometer per uur. Vietnam trof vrijdag voorbereidingen om duizenden mensen uit zijn centrale kustgebied te evacueren, waar de tyfoon zondag wordt verwacht. Volgens de directeur van de meteorologische dienst is Xangsane even krachtig als de tyfoon Chanchu, die in mei aan naar schatting 270 Vietnamezen, merendeels vissers, het leven heeft gekost. Slechts van twintig vissers zijn de lijken gevonden.

Dus dan de windstoten tegen de 1500km/h aan zitten

Dust Storms may Reduce Hurricane Activity

Dust storms swirling out of Africa's Sahara Desert may help reduce hurricane activity in the Atlantic Ocean, a new study suggests.

The findings aren't conclusive, but researchers led by Amato T. Evan of the University of Wisconsin-Madison found that years with more African dust had fewer tropical storms and years with less dust had more storms.

The study is reported in Tuesday's issue of Geophysical Research Letters.

Evan and his colleagues used satellite images to study the amount of African dust blown out over the Atlantic for the years 1982-2005 and compared that with tropical storm activity.

"While we cannot conclusively demonstrate a direct causal relationship, there appears to be a robust link between tropical cyclone activity and dust transport," they concluded.

"People didn't understand the potential impact of dust until satellites allowed us to see how incredibly expansive these dust storms can be," Evan said in a statement. "Sometimes during the summer, sunsets in Puerto Rico are beautiful, because of all the dust in the sky -- well that dust comes all the way from Africa."

Co-author Jonathan Foley, also of the University of Wisconsin, added: "These findings are important because they show that long-term changes in hurricanes may be related to many different factors."

Several recent studies have indicated a potential relationship between warming sea surface temperatures and increases in either the strength or number of tropical storms.

Other researchers have suggested a link between rain in North Africa and an increase in tropical storms, resulting from more easterly wave disturbances entering the Atlantic from Africa.

Dust blowing off the Sahara can spread widely and it is not unusual for it to be detected in the Caribbean and Florida.

The researchers suggest three possible ways the dust can affect storms:

-By introducing dry air into a storm it causes downdrafts, blocking the rising streams of air needed to fuel a storm.

-Midlevel winds accompanying the Saharan air cause wind shear, a change in direction with altitude that prevents rising currents from growing into storms.

-Warmth absorbed by the dust in the air can stabilize conditions, again blocking rising air.

Update(je) van Hurricanetrack.com

quote:

UPDATED: 4:30 pm EDT, October 12, 2006
FALSE ALARM IN THE TROPICS- NO DEVELOPMENT LIKELY

Just when it seemed we might have something to watch, it fizzles out. The tropical wave and associated surface low are not expected to do much more than provide additional moisture for portions of the Greater Antilles and NE Caribbean Sea. Upper level winds and other environmental conditions are just not favorable enough for any development right now. In fact, I see nothing on the global models to suggest that we will see anything significant for the rest of the month. I do believe now that we will end the season without a single hurricane hitting the United States or surrounding nations. We came close with a couple of systems but it was just not in the cards this time around. I am sure there are no complaints about that. I'll post another update tomorrow.

Geen enkele orkaan dit seizoen? Dat is toch niet wat men voorspeld had. Wel mooi voor al die amerikanen, even geen ellende dit jaar.

Het is ongelofelijk.. het ziet er idd naar uit dat er geen enkele storm aan land komt in de VS...

En dat terwijl ze nog een boven-gemiddeld seizeon voorspeld hadden.. kan je nagaan hoe onvoorspelbaar alles is. Maar ja, vorig jaar hadden we zelfs in december nog een storm, dus echt voorbij is het nog niet

En dat terwijl het zeewater zelfs nog hoger lag dan vorig jaar. Als dit gebeurt zal zal het waarschijndelijk de eerste keer zijn dat amerika gespaart blijft.

quote:

Op vrijdag 13 oktober 2006 14:02 schreef SpeedyGJ het volgende:
En dat terwijl het zeewater zelfs nog hoger lag dan vorig jaar. Als dit gebeurt zal zal het waarschijndelijk de eerste keer zijn dat amerika gespaart blijft.

Gespaart? Je maakt een grapje hoop ik. Nog afgezien van droogte en sneeuw, is er een aardig tornado-seizoen happening, met slachtoffers.

quote:

Op maandag 16 oktober 2006 19:27 schreef okee6 het volgende:

[..]

Gespaart? Je maakt een grapje hoop ik. Nog afgezien van droogte en sneeuw, is er een aardig tornado-seizoen happening, met slachtoffers.

Gespaard hoort natuurlijk met een D. En als er geen hurricanes aan land komen kun je wel stellen dat de VS wat dat betreft gespaard blijft.
Katrina vorig jaar kwam op ruim 1800 slachtoffers.

quote:

Op maandag 16 oktober 2006 20:07 schreef Light het volgende:

[..]

Gespaard hoort natuurlijk met een D. En als er geen hurricanes aan land komen kun je wel stellen dat de VS wat dat betreft gespaard blijft.
Katrina vorig jaar kwam op ruim 1800 slachtoffers.

Die woordkeuze is toch niet erg gelukkig. De tornado's worden aangejaagd door het verschil tussen de koude continentale winden (van Canada) en de warme lucht in het zuiden (Golf van Mexico) Op het moment dat er weinig hurricanes passeren, blijft het verschil tussen die twee langer extreem. En in het transport van energie en neerslag zijn hurricanes ook belangrijk. En wat de olie is in de Golf, is het gewas van de great plains naar de grain belt. De VS kampt al met droogte.

quote:

Op maandag 16 oktober 2006 21:21 schreef okee6 het volgende:

[..]

Die woordkeuze is toch niet erg gelukkig. De tornado's worden aangejaagd door het verschil tussen de koude continentale winden (van Canada) en de warme lucht in het zuiden (Golf van Mexico) Op het moment dat er weinig hurricanes passeren, blijft het verschil tussen die twee langer extreem. En in het transport van energie en neerslag zijn hurricanes ook belangrijk. En wat de olie is in de Golf, is het gewas van de great plains naar de grain belt. De VS kampt al met droogte.

Dan nog, het gaat hier om orkanen, niet over andere dingen, kortom, tornado's etc links laten liggen....

quote:

Op zondag 22 oktober 2006 08:41 schreef aloa het volgende:
Tropical Storm Paul

Wordt maandag een orkaan en koerst richting mexico

[afbeelding]

Cat 1/2 zal het wel worden.

Dooie boel in de Atlantic.

SAN JOSE DEL CABO, Mexico (AP) -- Tropical Storm Paul weakened as it headed toward the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, still threatening to cause heavy flooding on Mexico's mainland.

A Baja California fisherman died after slipping off sea-battered rocks and rescue workers were searching for an American who they feared had drowned after being swept out to sea by the surging waves.

Paul had maximum sustained winds near 45 mph (75 kph) and was moving northeast at about 14 mph (22 kph), but was expected to further weaken before slipping just south of Los Cabos early Wednesday, the U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami said.

Forecasters, however, warned that remnants of the storm could still dump up to 10 inches (25 centimeters) of rain in the mountains on Mexico's mainland, potentially causing severe flooding.

Late Tuesday, Paul was 130 miles (209 kilometers) southwest of Cabo San Lucas on southernmost Baja California, and about 300 miles (483 kilometers) southwest of Mazatlan on the mainland. A tropical storm warning was in effect for the tip of Baja

23-year-old Mexican fisherman died Monday after he slipped off rocks pounded by the rough sea in Todos Santos, north of Los Cabos, according to Baja California Sur state civil defense director Jose Gajon.

Off the coast of the resort of Cabo San Lucas, officials were searching for the body of an American man who was swept away by the storm-fueled waves while he was walking along the beach with his wife and sister.

Gilberto Guzman, manager of the SolMar Hotel, identified the missing tourist as John Skoor, 65, of Moses Lake, Washington. Guzman said "an enormous wave" swept Skoor and his sister out to sea late Monday. Hotel personnel were able to save the sister but not Skoor.

Streets were already ankle deep with water in the resort, where authorities closed schools and opened eight shelters Tuesday.

Paul, with winds that reached 110 mph (175 kph) on Monday, was the third hurricane to threaten this popular resort area this season.

San Jose del Cabo and Cabo San Lucas are popular with sports fishermen and celebrities. The resorts are famous for deep-sea fishing, golf courses and beaches flanked by cactus-dotted deserts.

Mexico was struck by two Pacific hurricanes last month. Hurricane John battered Baja California, killing five people and destroying 160 homes, while Hurricane Lane hit the resort town of Mazatlan, causing relatively minor damage.

Possible Caribbean Storm next week?

was looking over the global models and the long range GFS is starting to suggest development in the western Caribbean in a little over a week. This is a long time out for any computer model to be taken seriously, but it's something to watch since the western Caribbean is the prime breeding grounds for tropical storms and hurricanes this time of year. November hurricanes are not common but they do happen- we still have some time left in the season for something to ruin our perfect record of a no-hitter season. The odds do not favor anything of significance but you never know. As they say, it's not over 'til it's over. I'll keep an eye on the GFS and other models as well- if more start to line up with what the GFS is indicating, then we can look a little closer, for now, it's just something I noticed

Het is toch wel zonde dat er relatief weinig hurricanes zijn. Het zal betekenen dat de volgende regering weer meer slachtoffers zal inbegroten, door minder gelden vrij te maken voor bescherming.

Cimaron treft het noorden van de Filipijnen

quote:

Op vrijdag 13 oktober 2006 08:56 schreef Frutsel het volgende:
Het is ongelofelijk.. het ziet er idd naar uit dat er geen enkele storm aan land komt in de VS...

Alberto heeft hier toch een beetje schade aangericht en was volgens mij nog een storm toen het aan land kwam.

Cimaron wordt een killerstorm. Is inmiddels een supertyfoon (cat.5) met windsnelheden van 295 km/u Arme Filipijnen

Wow gaat lekker dan mag hier ook wel komen al ben ik niet aansprakelijk voor de schade die ontstaat

Typhoon Cimaron: One of the strongest ever

October 29, 2006
By Paul Alexander, Associated Press Writer



MANILA, Philippines — Typhoon Cimaron blasted roofs off homes as it made landfall late Sunday in the northern Philippines, with officials saying it may be one of the most powerful storms to ever hit the country. The president called for prayers, and hospitals and troops prepared for the worst.

With winds gusting up to 143 mph, Cimaron _ named after a Philippine wild ox _ roared across an impoverished mountainous area home to some 1.7 million people.

"This is probably one of the strongest typhoons ever to hit the country," Health Secretary Francisco Duqueso said at a news conference aired on Manila radio stations. "We need to be very careful and we need to instruct our people to make sure that all necessary precautions are being taken."

President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo ordered schools and government offices closed in the affected area and suspended bus services in the region.

"Let us pray," she said in a national radio address.

Although the storm did not appear to be drenching the mudslide-prone area as badly as feared, rising rivers made some bridges impassable. Officials said water would be released from two major dams to prevent them from overflowing.

Hours before Cimaron made landfall, Isabela province was placed under the highest of a four-step warning system to advise residents to abandon vulnerable coasts and mountains.



"The wind is really blowing strong. Trees are swaying and I can hear tin roof sheets banging about. Large areas are without light. We're expecting the worst," Armand Araneta, a provincial Office of Civil Defense officer, told The Associated Press by phone from Isabela.

Arroyo, who is visiting China, urged authorities and residents in four northern provinces to brace for the worst from the 16th typhoon to hit the country this year.

"I appeal to you not to venture out," Arroyo said in her radio address.

The typhoon threatened commemorations for All Saints' Day on Wednesday, a public holiday when millions travel to cemeteries to remember their dead, some leaving days in advance for outlying provinces. Officials warned people to cancel trips to threatened areas.

"We know in our culture that we should visit our dead, but this is not an ordinary typhoon, it's a super typhoon," a government official, Graciano Yumul, warned.

Forecasters said the storm was expected to weaken while traveling over land, but still should maintain typhoon strength as it emerges into the South China Sea.

The last time a typhoon this strong struck the Philippines was in December 2004, although in that case, the storm was deflected by a mountain range and casualties were minimal.

Last month, Typhoon Xangsane left 230 people dead and missing as it ripped through Manila and neighboring provinces.

About 20 typhoon and tropical storms lash the country each year.

Ziet er niet al te best uit voor de Filipijnen.

WTF CAT 5 landfall en met volle CAT 4 eroverheen

'Trapped Wave' during Hurricane?
A rare phenomenon that ramped up storm surge in the Gulf of Mexico during Hurricane Dennis last year has been identified, and researchers say the same enhancement could bring large surges during future hurricanes following similar paths.

Storm surges are caused by wind pushing water toward the shore and piling it up.

When Dennis made landfall on July 10 as a Category 3 hurricane along the western end of the Florida panhandle, 10-foot storm surges battered the coastline. That was about 3 to 4 feet more than had been predicted or could be explained by the local winds normally behind the surge.

Hurricane Dennis 2003


Researchers at Florida State University and the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have found that the answer to the mystery lay in a number of factors, including the hurricane's speed and path, influencing a phenomenon called a "trapped wave."

In the Northern Hemisphere, hurricane winds always rotate counterclockwise as seen from above. Earth's rotation pushes ocean water to the right, in the direction of the storm's winds, creating a slight build-up on that side. If the hurricane travels parallel to a coastline on its right side, its winds will force the ocean water against the coast, "creating a bulge of high sea level," explained Steven Morey, a Florida State University oceanographer. This bulge will travel along the coast, forming what is known as a constantly trapped wave.

This was what happened during Dennis: The storm ran alongside the western coast of Florida, allowing the trapped wave to form.

And "because Dennis traveled nearly parallel to the Florida Peninsula coast at the same speed as the wave, winds from Dennis amplified the wave" as it traveled northward, Morey said.



Though trapped waves are common and have been understood for years, "this is the first time it's made a difference in the hurricane storm surge," Morey said.

Storm surge forms in just a few hours as a hurricane approaches land, when its winds directly drive the water onshore. A trapped wave takes at least a day or longer to form.

Dennis was a special case that combined these two phenomena because the hurricane was barreling towards the northern Gulf Coast, with the Florida coast on its right. Timing, however, was the crucial element, because the hurricane brushed the shore just as the trapped wave arrived, amplifying the normal storm surge.

"They just added together," Morey said.

This type of trapped wave could play a part in future storms that travel a path similar to Dennis's or along the Louisiana coastline heading towards Texas. National Hurricane Center forecasters plan to factor this phenomenon into their forecasting models so they can better predict storm surge levels.

quote:

Op dinsdag 31 oktober 2006 12:13 schreef Frutsel het volgende:
'Trapped Wave' during Hurricane?
A rare phenomenon that ramped up storm surge in the Gulf of Mexico during Hurricane Dennis last year has been identified, and researchers say the same enhancement could bring large surges during future hurricanes following similar paths.

Storm surges are caused by wind pushing water toward the shore and piling it up.

When Dennis made landfall on July 10 as a Category 3 hurricane along the western end of the Florida panhandle, 10-foot storm surges battered the coastline. That was about 3 to 4 feet more than had been predicted or could be explained by the local winds normally behind the surge.

Hurricane Dennis 2003
[afbeelding]

Researchers at Florida State University and the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have found that the answer to the mystery lay in a number of factors, including the hurricane's speed and path, influencing a phenomenon called a "trapped wave."

In the Northern Hemisphere, hurricane winds always rotate counterclockwise as seen from above. Earth's rotation pushes ocean water to the right, in the direction of the storm's winds, creating a slight build-up on that side. If the hurricane travels parallel to a coastline on its right side, its winds will force the ocean water against the coast, "creating a bulge of high sea level," explained Steven Morey, a Florida State University oceanographer. This bulge will travel along the coast, forming what is known as a constantly trapped wave.

This was what happened during Dennis: The storm ran alongside the western coast of Florida, allowing the trapped wave to form.

And "because Dennis traveled nearly parallel to the Florida Peninsula coast at the same speed as the wave, winds from Dennis amplified the wave" as it traveled northward, Morey said.

[afbeelding]

Though trapped waves are common and have been understood for years, "this is the first time it's made a difference in the hurricane storm surge," Morey said.

Storm surge forms in just a few hours as a hurricane approaches land, when its winds directly drive the water onshore. A trapped wave takes at least a day or longer to form.

Dennis was a special case that combined these two phenomena because the hurricane was barreling towards the northern Gulf Coast, with the Florida coast on its right. Timing, however, was the crucial element, because the hurricane brushed the shore just as the trapped wave arrived, amplifying the normal storm surge.

"They just added together," Morey said.

This type of trapped wave could play a part in future storms that travel a path similar to Dennis's or along the Louisiana coastline heading towards Texas. National Hurricane Center forecasters plan to factor this phenomenon into their forecasting models so they can better predict storm surge levels.

Interessant stuk.

Nog een filmpje over de typhoon die over de Filipijnen heen trok.
http://frontpage.fok.nl/video/3813

Nog een leuk plaatje van Cimaron

Cimaron is net weg en zo te zien krijgt hetzelfde gebied er nog eentje te verduren

idd, er is weer een orkaanachtig iets ten oosten van de filipijnen. Amerika wordt gespaard, terwijl het op de grote oceaan flink raak is dit jaar

quote:

Op vrijdag 10 november 2006 15:47 schreef Party_P het volgende:
idd, er is weer een orkaanachtig iets ten oosten van de filipijnen. Amerika wordt gespaard, terwijl het op de grote oceaan flink raak is dit jaar

Die Amerikanen hadden wel gelijk dat het een active season zou worden dit jaar. Ze zaten alleen een beetje fout met de regio...

Op Saturnus is op dit moment ook een leuke orkaan hé!

Wel raar dat deze niet beweegt maar op de plek blijft hangen.

Hurricane Sergio



Gaat lekker daar aan de westkust van de VS... meer orkanen dan vorig jaar... dit in tegenstelling tot de Atlantische oceaan zou je haast zeggen

quote:

Op zondag 12 november 2006 15:14 schreef aloa het volgende:

[..]

Ja, met windsnelheden van 550 kilometer per uur.

Reusachtige 'orkaan' woedt op Saturnus

Heerlijk die snelheid

quote:

Op woensdag 15 november 2006 17:07 schreef Frutsel het volgende:
Hurricane Sergio

[afbeelding]

Gaat lekker daar aan de westkust van de VS... meer orkanen dan vorig jaar... dit in tegenstelling tot de Atlantische oceaan zou je haast zeggen

Ja idd, ben benieuwd hoe het volgendjaar gaat doen.

Hey speedster, ik mis in jou weersverslagen de sneeuw van november vorig jaar
dat was toch ook zon megapak

Eigelijk totaal offtopic ga maar even naar GCSC vraag het daar maar even lol

Terug ontopic

HurricaneTrack: Possible Storm ahead

It appears that there will be a strong coastal storm to develop early this coming week off the Southeast coast. Already, there are special marine weather statements suggesting that winds could reach to well over tropical storm strength- especially near the Gulf Stream. Water temps offshore are still quite warm, especially in the Gulf Stream, so it will be interesting to see if this low pressure can acquire enough tropical characteristics to become a named storm- subtropical or tropical. Either way, it looks like a wet and windy week ahead for coastal areas of the Southeast. I will post more about this developing storm on Monday as better model data becomes available.

Cyclone Yani



Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A5 issued from RSMC NADI
Nov 22/2013 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone YANI 04F [985hPa] centre was located near 12.9S
162.8E at 221800 UTC moving south-southeast about 03 knots but
expected to turn west. Position fair based on HRES MTSAT EIR imagery
with animation. Maximum 10-minute average winds estimated at 50 knots
increasing to 60 knots in the next 12 to 24 hours. Winds over 47
knots within 30 miles of centre and over 33 knots within 120 miles of
centre in the southeastern semicircle and within 90 miles of centre
in the northwest semicircle.

Organisation steadily increasing though appearing sheared. Primary
band still wrapping tightly around llcc. Outflow good to south and
west but restricted elsewhere. Dvorak based on curved band wrap of
0.85 on log10 spiral yielding DT=3.5, MET and PAT agree. Final T
based on DT thus T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24hrs. Cyclone is located just south
of a 250-hPa ridge axis in a divergent and weak shear region. SST
around 28-29C. Yani expected to move west under strong mid level
ridge to east and south. Global models generally agree on a westward
track with gradual intensification.

FORECAST:
12hrs valid 230600UTC near 12.8S 162.4E mov W at 02kt with 55kt close
to centre.
24hrs valid 231800UTC near 12.9S 161.8E mov W at 02kt with 60kt close
to centre.

OUTLOOK:
36hrs valid 240600UTC near 13.3S 161.0E mov WSW at 03kt with 65kt
close to centre.
48hrs valid 241800UTC near 13.7S 159.9E mov WSW at 04kt with 70kt
close to centre.

En nog eentje op weg naar de kop van de Filipijnen
Ze krijgen het daar wel te verduren dit jaar...