[Centraal] Orkaan Wilma (no 21) - The Beginning.

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Bron : CNN.com
Tropical Storm Wilma forms
Ties record for most storms in Atlantic season


Tropical Storm Wilma is south of Cuba in this infrared satellite image taken Monday at 3:15 a.m. ET.
MIAMI, Florida (AP) -- Tropical Storm Wilma formed Monday in the northwestern Caribbean, tying the record for the most storms in an Atlantic season and following a path that some forecasters believe could menace the Gulf Coast later this week as a hurricane.

Wilma is the 21st named storm of the season. The only other time that many storms formed since record keeping began 154 years ago was in 1933.

At 5 a.m. EDT, Wilma had top sustained winds near 40 mph, just above the threshold for tropical storms. It was centered about 175 miles southeast of Grand Cayman and drifting southwest near 3 mph.

A hurricane watch was issued for the Cayman Islands, meaning hurricane conditions could be felt there within 36 hours. The storm is expected to bring 4 to 6 inches of rain in the Cayman Islands and Jamaica, with as much as 12 inches possible in some areas, forecasters said.

Long-term forecasts show the storm heading into the Gulf of Mexico by the weekend. Forecasters said high water temperatures and other conditions were favorable for it to become a significant hurricane.

But hurricane specialist Stacy Stewart said Wilma had shifted west of its previous path and could hit Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, not the U.S. Gulf Coast. "At this time it doesn't appear it will be a major threat to the United States during the next five days," Stewart said.

The U.S. Gulf Coast was already battered this year by Hurricane Katrina on Aug. 29. It killed more than 1,240 people and is expected to cause more than $34 billion in insured losses. Hurricanes Rita and Dennis have also battered the coast.

Since 1995, the Atlantic has been in a period of higher hurricane activity. Scientists say the cause of the increase is a rise in ocean temperatures and a decrease in the amount of disruptive vertical wind shear that rips hurricanes apart. Some researchers argue that global warming fueled by man's generation of greenhouse gases is the culprit.

Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center say the busy seasons are part of a natural cycle that can last for at least 20 years, and sometimes up to 40 or 50. They say the conditions are similar to those when the Atlantic was last in a period of high activity in the 1950s and '60s.

It's also difficult to know whether the Atlantic was even busier at any time before record keeping began in 1851. And satellites have only been tracking tropical weather since the 1960s, so some storms that just stayed at sea before then could have escaped notice.

The six-month hurricane season ends Nov. 30. Wilma is the last on the list of storm names for 2005; there are 21 names on the yearly list because the letters q, u, x, y and z are skipped. If any other storms form, letters from the Greek alphabet would be used, starting with Alpha. That has never happened in roughly 60 years of regularly named Atlantic storms.

A tracking map on the hurricane center's wall already had Alpha, Beta, Gamma and Delta listed just in case they form.

Forecasters say they wouldn't be surprised if another storm formed this year, even though the official forecast only called for 21 named storms this year. Wind shear typically increases and sea temperatures usually fall toward the end of October in the Atlantic, hurricane specialist Richard Knabb said.

"But the western Caribbean is an especially favorable location for late season development because the water remains quite warm and the vertical shear often is not that strong down there, that far south. So conditions are still favorable down there sometimes in late October and into November," he said.

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bron : AccuWeather
Hurricane Wilma continues to gather steam over the warm waters of the Caribbean. The storm will reach Category 3 strength by the end of Wednesday and could become a Category 4 hurricane for a while on Thursday or Friday. The AccuWeather.com forecasted track of Wilma shows the storm becoming a serious threat to Florida this weekend. Deviations in the path are still possible, but currently we feel southern and central Florida will experience the full fury of the storm. When the storm makes landfall this weekend, the west coast of Florida somewhere between Tampa and the Keys could be pounded by winds over 100 mph and a destructive storm surge. Torrential rain brought by the storm will be widespread across a large portion of the state.
Story by AccuWeather.com expert senior meteorologist John Kocet.

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Bron : hurricanetrack.com/
UPDATED: 4:55 PM EDT, October 18, 2005
WILMA NOW FORECAST TO BE VERY STRONG CAT-3/4 HURRICANE

The latest info coming from the NHC suggests that Wilma could become a strong category three and perhaps even a category four hurricane before making landfall. This is obviously not good news for the people in the path of this hurricane. It seems that environmental conditions will be very favorable for Wilma to become an intense and very dangerous hurricane. With that being said, I urge people within the cone of probability to start taking preparedness action now. Remember- your local authorities have hurricane plans in place to deal with such an event. Also remember too that a lot of people are in Florida now as "Snowbirds" and may not be used to hurricane threats. Time is on your side now- use it wisely and prepare for the worst. It looks like Wilma will come in and move out fairly quickly and we will have to see if it comes out close enough to the coast so that people along the Outer Banks of North Carolina have to worry. I am not sure that this will be the case right now- but it is something we will need to watch.

I am leaving for Naples, FL in the morning and will have full updates while en route. My colleague from Ft. Lauderdale, Mike Watkins, will produce a nice video report tomorrow evening to explain things to people using excellent graphics and simple terms so that folks understand what they're up against. That video will be online here near 7pm tomorrow evening. I will post another text update here later this evening- near the 11pm EDT advisory time.

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Bron : CNN
Hurricane Wilma now 'extremely dangerous'


Hurricane Wilma now 'extremely dangerous'
Category 4 storm has top sustained winds of 150 mph

MIAMI, Florida (CNN) -- Hurricane Wilma rapidly intensified from a Category 2 to a Category 4 hurricane early Wednesday with maximum sustained winds of 150 mph, and forecasters warned it could become a Category 5 hurricane later in the day before possibly slamming into Florida by this weekend.

At 1 a.m. EDT, the National Hurricane Center reported an Air Force plane had found 150 mph winds with higher gusts in Wilma.

"Wilma is an extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale," the center said in an advisory. "The hurricane could become a Category 5 hurricane today."

The storm has already left seven to 10 people dead in Haitian mudslides caused by heavy rains, government officials told Reuters news agency.

The latest in a slew of devastating storms to sock the Gulf region, Wilma became a hurricane Tuesday -- tying the record for both most hurricanes in a season with 12 and most named storms at 21.

Just nine hours after becoming a hurricane, Wilma's wind speeds had jumped from 75 mph to 100 mph. Then, within two hours, the winds intensified from 110 to 150 mph.

At 2 a.m. EDT, the center of the storm was located 170 miles south-southwest of Grand Cayman Island and about 400 miles southeast of Cozumel, Mexico. It was moving west-northwest at nearly 8 mph and is expected to turn to the northwest over the next 24 hours, the hurricane center said.

A Category 4 hurricane can cause a storm surge of 18 feet above normal and cause complete destruction of mobile homes, extensive damage to doors and windows of structures and major damage to lower floors of structures near the shore.

Projections for Wilma's path suggest the storm may skirt the western tip of Cuba on Friday, possibly as a Category 4 storm with winds of greater than 130 mph, before curving eastward and barreling toward the southwestern Florida coast.

"All interests in the Florida Keys and the Florida peninsula should closely monitor the progress of Wilma," the NHC said.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward about 15 miles from the eye, and tropical-storm-force winds stretch up to 155 miles from the center.

Cuba has issued a hurricane watch for the provinces of Matanzas westward through Pinar del Rio and for the Isle of Youth, according to the hurricane center. Late Tuesday, Mexico extended a hurricane watch for the Yucatan Peninsula. The watch area now stretches from Punta Gruesa to Cabo Catoche. A hurricane watch means hurricane conditions, including winds of at least 74 mph, are possible within 36 hours.

A 150-mile stretch of the Honduran coast is under a tropical storm warning, and the Cayman Islands are under tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch.

The hurricane center said Cuba could get anywhere from 10 to 15 inches of rain in Wilma's wake, with some areas getting socked with as much as 25 inches. Additional rainfall accumulations of of up to 10 inches, with up to 15 inches possible in some areas, was possible across the Cayman Islands and Jamaica through Thursday. Across the Yucatan Peninsula, rainfall of up to 6 inches was possible, with up to 12 inches in some areas.

Wilma is the 21st named storm of the 2005 hurricane season and the 12th to reach hurricane status. Of those, five have developed into major hurricanes.

The only other time 12 hurricanes have been recorded in the Atlantic was in 1969, according to the hurricane center. The most major hurricanes in a year was eight, in 1950.

Wilma is also the final name on the 2005 list. The hurricane center does not use certain letters of the alphabet, including X, Y and Z, because there are so few names begin with those letters.

If any tropical storms and subsequent hurricanes form before the season ends on Nov. 30, they will be classified using the Greek alphabet, beginning with Alpha.

If that happens, it would be the first time since the naming of storms began in 1953, according to the hurricane center.

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Bron : NHC
000
WTNT64 KNHC 190629
TCUAT4
HURRICANE WILMA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
230 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2005
DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT HURRICANE WILMA
HAS BECOME AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE MEASURED
175 MPH WINDS AND ESTIMATED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 892 MB. THIS IS
THE LOWEST PRESSURE OBSERVED IN 2005 AND IS EQUIVALENT TO THE
MINIMUM PRESSURE OF THE 1935 LABOR DAY HURRICANE IN THE FLORIDA
KEYS.

FORECASTER AVILA

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Bron : CNN
Hurricane Wilma a Category 5 monster
'Extremely dangerous' storm has top sustained winds of 175 mph

Wednesday, October 19, 2005; Posted: 2:59 a.m. EDT (06:59 GMT)

MIAMI, Florida (CNN) -- Hurricane Wilma has strengthened into an "extremely dangerous" Category 5 hurricane, with sustained maximum winds of 175 mph, the National Hurricane Center said Wednesday.

The hurricane's minimum pressure is 892 millibars -- the lowest pressure observed in 2005.

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Op woensdag 19 oktober 2005 08:52 schreef IkWilbert het volgende:
Laten we hopen dat ie wat afzwakt voordat het land wordt bereikt. Dat is meestal wel geval...

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Op woensdag 19 oktober 2005 11:26 schreef Againzender het volgende:
Wat blijven die dingen toch lastig te voorspellen....