EU holds breath ahead of French vote on SundayEUOBSERVER / BRUSSELS - French citizens will go to the polls on Sunday to vote on the European Constitution, finally putting an end to months of speculation and counter-speculation about which way the vote will go.
The spectre of a rejection of the treaty in one of the EU's principle founding members has caused the bloc to virtually shut down for the past two months, with controversial proposals being shelved and EU politicians tip-toeing around French sensitivities.
French president Jacques Chirac on Thursday (26 May) made a last ditch attempt to persuade voters not to reject the document with a TV address.
"It is ... my duty to tell you the consequences of the No. Rejection will be seen as a No to Europe. Europe will break down", he said.
But polls have continued to put the No side in the lead, with citizens planning to vote No both to punish an unpopular government and out of dissatisfaction with the contents of the 448-article document.
The latest survey for Le Figaro and Radio Europe 1 published on Thursday evening showed that 55 per cent intend to vote against the Constitution.
The French government has been on the back foot ever since it became obvious that the opposition Socialists were split on whether to support the new EU charter.
An internal referendum in the group in December last year saw the socialist party formally decide to support the treaty, but the arguments used by those opposed – that it was too Anglo-Saxon and too free-market oriented - had already gained a foothold in French popular imagination.
While these beliefs gathered momentum, president Chirac took his time before entering the campaign personally, with several critics accusing him of leaving it too late.
A strong sense of fear about the Constitution - that it is a document made for big business and that it will harm Europe’s social model, espoused so strongly in France - has gripped those planning to vote no.
On top of this, a simultaneous and generally mismanaged debate on the merits of an EU law to open up the market for services fuelled fears about eastern European workers, who might offer cheaper services under their country’s own rules, pushing down wages in France and driving more expensive French service providers out of work.
The directive has since been put on the backburner after a personal intervention by Mr Chirac, but it still resonates in the current debate. Another issue, seized on by No campaigners, is general French antipathy towards Turkey becoming a member of the EU.
The No camp have argued that the Constitution will pave the way for Ankara’s membership bid to succeed.
Now, two days before the vote, EU leaders are trying, privately at least, to reconcile themselves to the fact that France may reject the constitution - but there is no real Plan B if the No wins.
Much will also depend on how the Netherlands, which also looks set to reject the treaty, votes three days later.
Brussels experts are already looking at what part of the treaty could be salvaged if EU leaders decide that two No votes have killed the document.
The overall reactions are likely to depend on the margin between the Yes and the No vote and whether both countries say Yes, both say No, or if it is a mixed result – with a French 'non' likely to be given more political importance than a Dutch 'nee'.The Constitution was agreed upon last year. Among its changes are the introduction of an EU foreign minister and diplomatic service; a new voting system based on population and a threshold of countries; a permanent European Council president and, eventually, a reduction in the number of commissioners.
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