Oorlog in Oekra�ne #919 Dems moeten Reps gewoon negeren

quote:

Hostage to Trump: Unraveling reasons behind U.S. aid stall for Ukraine
xplore the detailed account of why the allocation of American aid to Ukraine faced the threat of disruption and how Ukraine's support became entangled in Donald Trump's pre-election strategy and more in RBC-Ukraine's material.

Materials from Politico, The Hill, The Washington Post, and CNN were used in the preparation of the article.

At the end of last year, a number of interlocutors of RBC-Ukraine in the government expressed confident optimism about unlocking American aid to Ukraine, around the beginning of 2024. For a long time, it seemed that there was every reason for this: American Democrats and Republicans, albeit slowly, were progressing towards an agreement on migration issues and strengthening the U.S.-Mexico border – precisely this was voiced by Republicans as a condition for voting for the multibillion-dollar aid package to Ukraine (as well as to Israel and Taiwan).

However, recent events indicate that the deal may fall apart. As a result, the prospects for providing American aid to Ukraine are once again in complete uncertainty. The simple reason is the presidential elections in the United States, of which Ukraine has already become a hostage.

Migration deadlock
During closed consultations that lasted for several weeks between Republicans, Democrats, and the White House administration, a compromise on migration reform was gradually reached. Democrats were ready for some concessions, as even part of their voters and establishment recognized that reform was necessary – the flow of migrants at the southern border of the United States exceeded all reasonable limits, and this problem needed to be addressed.

At the same time, the actions of the Democrats could not be too significant, as a significant portion of Democrats fundamentally oppose any anti-immigration measures. Balancing between these positions led to the negotiations lasting so long. In Washington, meanwhile, it was recognized that there were no funds for further aid packages to Ukraine.

The situation was further complicated by the fact that the other side of the negotiations – Republicans, who demand tough anti-immigration measures – does not have a clear and unified approach to the problem. The migration crisis once again highlighted the deep divide within the Republican Party, between old-school principled Republicans who are constructive – and populists from the Trumpist wing who operate on the principle of "the worse, the better."

Indeed, Senate Minority Leader, veteran of American politics Mitch McConnell, who takes a decidedly pro-Ukrainian position, advocates for the rapid adoption of migration reform and, accordingly, unblocking aid to Ukraine.

At the same time, the hyperactive group of Trumpist Republicans in the House of Representatives is already directly talking about the need to break any deals in the interests of Donald Trump's victory in the upcoming presidential elections. "I'm not willing to do too damn much right now to help a Democrat and to help Joe Biden's approval rating," Republican Rep. Troy Nehls of Texas told CNN.

The political logic of such an approach is obvious: if the problem with migrants and the border is really resolved now, Trump's headquarters will lose the main theme on which he builds his election campaign.

What's worse, Speaker of the House Mike Johnson, who has been trying to maneuver between radical and moderate Republicans in his faction, also leans towards such an approach. Johnson insists on the approval of the Republican bill H.R. 2, which was passed by the House of Representatives last May but got stuck in the Democrat-controlled Senate with no chance of approval.

Speaker of the House Mike Johnson (Photo: Getty Images)

H.R.2 envisions a return to the harsh anti-immigration measures of the Donald Trump presidency, including the construction of an additional 900 miles of wall on the border with Mexico, making it more difficult for migrants to obtain temporary asylum while their case is being considered in court, and so on.

For Democrats, such measures are categorically unacceptable. What's worse for Ukraine, they are not ready to support them, even if Johnson brings a bill to the floor that combines the provisions of H.R.2 with providing aid to Ukraine.

Conflict of priorities
Thus, providing aid to Ukraine is entirely dependent on domestic American political disputes at various levels. In addition to the global confrontation along Republican/Democrat and Trump/Biden lines, there is also an internal struggle within the Republican Party in the House of Representatives, at the center of which is Speaker Johnson.

In addition to resolving the migration issue, he now has to deal with the threat of a government shutdown – the cessation of funding for the U.S. government. Recall that Congress has not been able to approve the country's budget for the current fiscal year, resorting only to temporary measures, the deadlines for which expire on January 19 and February 2 for different parts of the government apparatus.

As a compromise, Johnson agreed with Democrats on another temporary budget that pushed the shutdown to March 1 and 8. However, this decision has sharply criticized Trumpist Republicans. They generally seek to achieve a shutdown, hoping that chaos in government administration will damage Biden's ratings, and they also demand tying the budget approval to the same harsh anti-immigration measures.

Threats of resignation have already been openly voiced against Johnson by Trumpists if he compromises with Democrats. Last year, the conflict with radical Trumpists cost Johnson's predecessor, Kevin McCarthy, the speakership.

Even moderate Republican congressmen openly speak about their political priorities. "We have two possible leverage points to get border security: our own budget, or Ukraine aid. You’d rather hold hostage our own troops’ pay? Or hold hostage Ukraine aid?" said Republican Dan Crenshaw in a comment to Politico.

Thus, as of now, the resolution of the migration problem in the U.S., and consequently, the allocation of American aid to Ukraine, is entering a deadlock. The situation is further complicated by Trump's overconfident victory in the first Republican primaries in Iowa, making him the uncontested candidate for the party in the presidential elections and giving confidence to his supporters in the American establishment.

quote:

Russian Federation sends armored vehicle convoys to storm in the Avdiivka direction
Russia’s invasion forces intensified their activities in the Avdiivka direction and sent columns of armored vehicles to assault.

The serviceman of the 110th Mechanized Brigade reported on this in the @BUAR110ombr Telegram group.

He also demonstrated the Russian infantry convoy, which was moving to assault the Ukrainian positions on January 15.

“Columns are moving again. They are trying to get closer by any means, to enter Avdiivka,” the serviceman shared.

In particular, the Russian military is trying to advance east of Avdiivka.

Infantry, artillery, and strike drones were involved in the destruction of the Russian invaders.

The military noted that they managed to destroy some of the attack troops’ armored vehicles during the fighting.

“Some enemy equipment and many orcs (Russian military – ed.) were destroyed, the cannon fodder thrown out by the armor (landing – ed.) was hiding as best they could,” the military noted.

According to the Ukrainian General Staff, in the Avdiivka direction, Ukrainian defenders continue to deter Russians, who do not let go of attempts to surround Avdiivka.

“Ukrainian Defense Forces units repelled 18 invader attacks in the areas of Novobakhmutivka, Stepove, Avdiivka and another 16 attacks near Severne, Pervomaiske, and Nevelske in the Donetsk region over the last day,” the General Staff said.

Encirclement of Avdiivka probably remains a key focus of Russian efforts, but as of now, Russia has achieved very limited territorial successes at a significant price, both materially and in human terms.

The Russian military is also trying to capture the village of Stepove near Avdiivka to cut the logistic routes of the Ukrainian army.

На авдіївському напрямку � Ф відправила на штурм колони бронетехніки

quote:

Russian colonel given 6-year sentence for failure to protect Crimean Bridge from drone strikes
A Russian military court sentenced Sergey Volkov, the head of technical development and resource support for the Russian National Guard’s maritime units, to six years in a penal colony for procuring unsuitable anti-drone radar systems to protect the Crimean Bridge, Mediazona reported on Tuesday.

The prosecution requested the accused be handed a seven-year prison sentence and be stripped of all his military decorations. Volkov, who was arrested in March after being detained at his office in the Russian National Guard’s headquarters in Moscow, did not admit guilt.

Volkov’s mistake cost the Russian army 400 million rubles (�4.1 million), Mediazona reported.

At his initial hearing in March, the prosecution claimed that Volkov had been responsible for the acquisition of two “obviously faulty” Orel-UAV drones to protect the bridge. He paid 200 million rubles (�2 million) for each drone, which some experts have said is more than they are worth.

More importantly, the Orel drones are incapable of intercepting small-class drones, which should have been their main function. The prosecution also said that Volkov’s actions had left the Crimean Bridge exposed “within the enemy’s attack range”, the Kommersant daily reported.

Volkov’s lawyer argued that Volkov did not have an advanced engineering education and should therefore not be held responsible for suitability of the drones.

quote:

ISW: Kremlin intensifying efforts to limit criticism of war ahead of presidential election
Russian State Duma deputies have brought forth a bill proposing the confiscation of personal property from those convicted of spreading "fake news" about Russia's war in Ukraine, a move aimed to increase censorship ahead of the 2024 Russian presidential election, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assessed in its latest report on Jan. 15

Citing reports from independent Russian outlet Meduza, the ISW notes that lawmakers from the ruling United Russia party have proposed a bill targeting activities "against the security of the state," seeking to confiscate assets like computers, tablets, or mobile phones owned by individuals convicted under this legislation.

The draft bill, first proposed through the Government Commission on Legislative Activities was supported without any objections. The legislation is now set to go to the State Duma, the lower house of the Russian Federal Assembly, for consideration.

The ISW assesses the proposed bill as an attempt to quell any brewing dissent and silence concerned relatives who would otherwise be outspoken about their support for troop demobilization. Recently, women-led protests have emerged throughout Russia, with wives and mothers of mobilized Russian soldiers advocating for the demobilization of Russian troops from Ukraine.

Russian dictator Vladimir Putin is seeking a fifth term in office, in a vote that is likely to be heavily rigged. Analysts have predicted that Putin has sough to minimize decisions that irritate Russia's electorate ahead of the upcoming Russian presidential election, including the issue of mass mobilization.

Last November, Putin signed a law restricting media freedom during the presidential election, only allowing journalists who have an employment contract with registered media outlets to cover election commission meetings.

quote:

Resistance movement burned several railroad facilities in the Russian Federation

The resistance movement burned several railway facilities in Russia, used for the logistics of the invaders.

The Defense Intelligence of Ukraine reported on this.

“Unknown opponents of the Putin regime have once again burned down several instrument cabinets at the railroad and other facilities,” Ukrainian intelligence said.

The destruction of such facilities should complicate the logistics of the Russian military for some time.

The incidents took place in the areas of the cities of Saratov, Yaroslavl, and Dzerzhinsk in the Nizhny Novgorod region.

As a result, traffic on these railway sections of central Russia was temporarily paralyzed.

“It will continue to burn as long as the Kremlin continues its criminal war against Ukraine,” the intelligence added.

At the same time, unidentified persons have recently planted explosives on a railroad train tanker in Russia.

The train was stopped several hundred meters from the Gazprom Neft terminal.

Prior to that, an explosion occurred in Russia on a section of the railway near the city of Nizhny Tagil. As a result of the explosion, nine fuel tanks were damaged. Due to severe fire and fuel burning, all damaged cars will be disposed of.

Also, on November 30 last year, an explosion occurred on the Baikal–Amur Mainline, namely in the Severomuysky Tunnel.

The tunnel is located in Buryatia. In fact, it is the only major railroad connection between Russia and China. As a result of the explosion, the 16th tank at the head of the train burned out. Also, two more tanks had holes in them.

У � Ф рух опору спалив декілька об’єктів на залізниці [Січень 2024]

quote:

Russian Ex-Cons Stormed by Troops After Holding Drunk Commanders Hostage
Former Russian prisoners hired by President Vladimir Putin to fight in Ukraine have been stormed by fellow troops after they held several drunk commanders hostage, according to a new video.

The 29-second clip was posted on January 14 by Telegram channel Poisk_in_ua, which said that the servicemen were recruited from a prison in the city of Tyumen in Russia's Siberia region. They left to join their unit on December 25 "and presumably were in training without weapons," the channel said.

In 2022 Putin revived the Stalin-era practice of throwing convicted murderers onto the battlefield to support his war in Ukraine. These prisoners included at least two convicted cannibals.

The Kremlin has recruited tens of thousands of prisoners since the war began to create its "Storm-Z" squads, which are deployed to carry out highly attritional, infantry-led frontal assaults on the most dangerous parts of the battlefield.

quote:

Turkey Has Stopped Money Transfers from the Russian Federation
Problems with transferring money from Russia to Turkey, which started in December, are deepening. The transfers were stopped in January, disrupting the export of products from Turkey to Russia.

After the visit of the US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, exporters could not receive payments from Moscow in Turkish lira and Russian rubles, some banks sent remittances back, and some banks began to reject transactions that they had previously accepted, saying that these were “prohibited goods”.

Almost all transfers have been stopped since January 1, which has caused a significant loss to exporters. For example, exporters in the automotive sector have not been able to receive their transfers since the beginning of the year. Moreover, Turkish shoe manufacturers working with a Russian company that buys most from Turkey have not received any payments from their Russian customers this month. Chemical industry companies, textile manufacturers, ship owners carrying out transportation to Russia, and others have faced similar challenges.

Recent problems with money transfers are related to the expansion of the latest EU sanctions list. For example, even if an exporting company in Turkey sells goods not subject to sanctions, the buyer may be included in the sanctions list, so there will be problems with money transfers. Furthermore, companies that were created by Russians and operate in Turkey are also experiencing difficulties right now.

Last year, Turkey’s exports to Russia increased by 23.2%, from 7 billion 647 million dollars in 2022 to 9 billion 423 million dollars in 2023. The five sectors, which export the most to Moscow, are the chemical industry, mechanical engineering, the automotive industry, fresh fruits and vegetables, and electronics.

This problem is the consequence of the trade of Turkey with Moscow. Owners of Turkish companies must understand that they are punished for their attempt to earn as much as possible by assisting the Kremlin in waging war against Ukraine and killing thousands of innocent civilians.

quote:

Op woensdag 17 januari 2024 10:28 schreef ExTec het volgende:
Nieuwe dag, nieuwe fabriek die affikt, maar heeft ongetwijfeld niks met de oorlog te maken.

[ twitter ]

quote:

Op woensdag 17 januari 2024 13:32 schreef oheng het volgende:

[..]
Hoogstwaarschijnlijk gaat het hier om een brandende afvalcontainer, waar iemand een sigaret in had gegooid.

Niet echt nieuwswaardig.

quote:

Op woensdag 17 januari 2024 13:41 schreef ExTec het volgende:

[..]
Da's best een grote afvalcontainer, dan.

[ twitter ]

quote:

Op woensdag 17 januari 2024 13:41 schreef ExTec het volgende:

[..]
Da's best een grote afvalcontainer, dan.

[ twitter ]

quote:

Op woensdag 17 januari 2024 12:18 schreef Ulx het volgende:
[ twitter ]

Altijd verstandig om in te hakken op protesterende burgers.

quote:

Op woensdag 17 januari 2024 13:45 schreef oheng het volgende:

[..]
Klik eens op mijn link.

quote:

Op woensdag 17 januari 2024 13:57 schreef StateOfMind het volgende:
Je zou toch zeggen dat je elite eenheden beter in kunt zetten tegen de vijand dan tegen eigen burgers

Maar goed, ik ben geen generaal dyus, wat weet ik nou allemaal.

quote:

Op woensdag 17 januari 2024 14:00 schreef ExTec het volgende:

[..]
Gedaan, kwaliteit houd niet over, kan er niet veel van maken.

Maar ondanks ik dat geen brand CSI ben oid, komt laatste wat ik post niet over als slechts een container.

quote:

Op woensdag 17 januari 2024 14:04 schreef oheng het volgende:

[..]
Je sarcasme detector is stuk.

quote:

Natuurlijk is dit geen toeval. Deze gloednieuwe fabriek vliegt de lucht in, minstens 10 doden.

quote:

Op woensdag 17 januari 2024 14:01 schreef oheng het volgende:

[..]
Het zijn dan ook geen eltie eenheden, maar Rosgvardia. Soort van oproerpolitie.

quote:

Op woensdag 17 januari 2024 14:11 schreef StateOfMind het volgende:

[..]
Ah, omdat daar specifiek elite special forces vermeld stond in die tweet.
Wel slordige fout dan