Oorlog in Oekraïne #722

ETH military economist Marcus Keupp believes he can calculate the end of the Ukraine war. He spreads this prophecy in the media. Is such a prediction serious, and why would a scientist risk their reputation?

Mr. Keupp, how would you describe the current war situation in Ukraine? What is the situation in the contested area of Bachmut?

Today is day 386 of the three-day "special operation" of the Russian armed forces. Seriously: Since January, we have seen the last Russian initiative that is still possible in this war in the Donbass. This initiative is doomed to fail because the Russians are gradually running out of material and personnel. The situation around Bachmut also has no strategic significance for the overall front line. Ukraine is also currently finishing training its tank crews in Germany and Poland. This means that we can expect a Ukrainian counteroffensive with Western tanks in mid-April.

How will it look like?

Ukraine will probably advance from Zaporizhia via Melitopol to the Black Sea coast, thus dividing the front into two parts. With a swing to the west, they could then encircle the Russian forces between Melitopol and Nova Kakhovka. In addition, they could place HIMARS missile systems on the coast and thus attack the military installations on the Crimea and cut off logistics. That will be the moment when the Russian defeat becomes apparent. That is my prediction. That's why I also said: Russia will have militarily lost the war by October. The military situation will be comparable to 1944 when the European war was lost for the Axis powers.

You rely mainly on numbers: you say that up to 600 Russian soldiers are killed every day. The Russians lose 5 tanks and 6 armored personnel carriers every day. Where do you get these numbers from?

I'll give you an example with the tanks. There are good estimates available for this. One comes from the Swedish Defense Agency FOI. The other is the estimate from IISS in London. These institutes estimate there are about 2,900 operational Russian combat tanks. Now you have to set this against the loss rate. For this, I use the Oryx blog. Today, we are at 1,845 tanks that Russia has lost - about 5 per day of war. The remaining reserve of 1,055 tanks is therefore still sufficient for a maximum of 211 days of war. And this doesn't even take into account the technology effect - Russia is mobilizing increasingly older tanks, while Ukraine is receiving modern Western systems.

And where do the Oryx data come from?

Oryx is a collective that analyzes Russian losses. It is the best data source on Russian losses available. There are various individuals behind it, who are based in Poland and Turkey and count the losses. This source is probably still conservative because it only counts what is actually geo-located in pictures or videos.

And suppose Russia still has more reserves?

What could the Russians possibly have left? They have the myth of an alleged wonder weapon: the Armata T-14 battle tank, which we have not yet seen on the battlefield. In the spring offensive, we will see pictures of Western Leopard 2 and Challenger 2 tanks that can shoot significantly further than Russian tanks and thus eliminate them from a distance. If you add up the technology boost among the Ukrainians, the Russian loss rate, and the depleting resources, then no other outcome is conceivable than a Russian defeat.

You believe that Russia will not use nuclear weapons. How can you be sure of this?

Nuclear weapons are a psychological weapon that Putin is using deliberately. Especially in Germany, it has an impact. Just mentioning it creates the typical German discourse of fear. I don't need to explain to you that a nuclear war cannot be won. Any nuclear use would immediately lead to escalation, even in conventional terms. Putin cannot have any interest in that.

However, the war is still characterized by many uncertainties: weather, soldiers' morale, material, and ultimately political decisions. Do you have no doubts?

You can verify these numbers. There is a large open-source intelligence community to which I belong, which obtains satellite images or asks other people what they have observed on-site. We have pictures from the population and data from experts. War analysis has changed radically. Previously, we had military experts who made claims. Or we had formulas or theoretical models with which something was calculated. Today, you can see almost in real-time what is happening on the front line. This war is the most documented war in all of human history, not least because of social media.

How transparent can numbers on Russian reserves be?

There are all sorts of propaganda numbers floating around, like 12,000 to 15,000 operational Russian tanks. I looked at that and come up with a figure of around 3,000 operational tanks at the time of the 2022 invasion. There can't be more than that. Why would the Russians reactivate outdated equipment like the T-62 and T-55 if they still have much better tanks in their garage? It doesn't make sense.

Would China be able to quickly arm Russia?

How would that work? The war material would have to be transported to the front by train. For a Russian fire frequency of 50,000 artillery shells per day along the entire front - as in the summer of 2022 - you would need a freight train of 1,600 tons per day via the Trans-Siberian Railway. This would not only be logistically very difficult, but these trains would also be immediately visible on satellite images, and secondary sanctions would then be imposed against China.

And yet we are constantly surprised, not least of all after the start of the Russian invasion. When was the last time you were in Ukraine and saw the situation on the ground?

Since 2012, I have been studying Russia, the Russian army, the local arms industry, and in particular, the Northeast Passage. I also published a book on this topic in 2015. Since the invasion in Donbass in the summer of 2014, I have refrained from traveling to Russia because it has become clear to me that the Putin regime no longer takes into account law and order.

Do you speak Russian?

I do speak some Russian for everyday use, but I would certainly not call myself an Eastern Europe or Russia expert. There are others who know much more about civil society than I do. My primary concern is to provide an economic and military assessment of the situation.

If your predictions are correct, then the Russians should be aware of the impending defeat. Why do they continue the war anyway? Are they guided by an irrational belief in victory?

Putin has unleashed dynamics that he can no longer control. In Russian culture, it is very important to show strength outwardly. Otherwise, you will quickly be questioned. What Putin is doing in the war actually has nothing to do with the war but rather with securing his internal system of rule.

How can you exclude the possibility that the oligarch-funded special troops will continue their wars with or without Putin and destabilize the region? This would mean that there would be no end to the war as you predict, let alone an orderly retreat.

I cannot exclude this possibility, on the contrary. There is not only the Wagner group, but also the Slavic Corps - from which Wagner emerged - and Patriot - Schoigu's private force. Gazprom has also just founded its own private army, "Staf-Zentr." In addition, there are four or five others. It is no coincidence that air defense systems are currently being installed everywhere in Moscow. This is preparation for internal conflicts.

What scenarios are you considering?

Russian oligarchs or military officials could certainly come up with the idea of eliminating Putin with a few targeted ballistic missiles and taking power themselves. But if Putin wants to prevent this, he would have to withdraw Russian troops from Ukraine to forcibly secure the internal stability of his regime. Even so, the end of the war could come earlier than expected. So there is no contradiction.

The Russian side is often attributed with opacity. Does this give the Russians a strategic advantage?

On the propaganda front, this gives them a massive advantage. They falsify statistics, tell fairy tales. Russia has been very successful in doing this for the past twenty years. Someone like me, who states this soberly, is now perceived as an exotic or speculator. This shows how deeply Russian propaganda has infiltrated Europe.

If propaganda supposedly has such a strong effect, couldn't it also be that Western politics loses patience, seeks a speedy peace and thus undermines your military scenario of a Russian defeat?

The military situation documents a brutal, objective reality that does not submit to political discourse. Power relations are negotiated on the battlefield. The result is measured in destroyed systems and dead people. It sounds cruel, but that's the way it is. It does not matter whether it is the Germans or the French, at least not in the political sense. Both Scholz and Macron come from a long tradition of friendship with Russia, even though both states now support Ukraine with weapons. I don't listen to political discourse anymore. What counts for me are the objective facts. And I observe them in actual combat. There is absolutely no indication that Western military support would diminish, even if in the media the appeasers are disproportionately represented

In this conversation, you give the impression that Europe is very pro-Russian. However, the reality is the opposite: large majorities in the West support Ukraine.

Not in Germany and France. But one should not overestimate this, because Germany is not a militarily decisive power. On the contrary, Germany would be best off fully transferring its weapon systems to Ukraine. Then the Russian aggression would be neutralized, and the currently dilapidated Bundeswehr could be transformed into an army for the 21st century. Fortunately, the security of Europe does not depend on Germany, otherwise we would already be part of the new Russian empire.

Do you consider yourself to be an outsider in Germany?

Fortunately, I can say that I have not spent the majority of my adult life in Germany and am therefore immune to the strange emotional culture of debate there. I am alternately called a hyper-realist and a NATO warmonger. I can live with that. I think that in twenty years, we will look back with horror at some German politicians and the Schröder and Merkel governments. We will shudder with pleasure and say, thankfully, it turned out well in the end.

What do you mean exactly?

Think about what would have happened if the war had only come in ten years: even more Russian money in Europe, Nord Stream 2 completed, Germany getting 70 percent of its energy from Russia. Would the Germans still have supported Ukraine then? It sounds cynical, but luckily this war is happening now.

On February 24, the Russian invasion of Ukraine began. Former German Brigadier General Erich Vad said on television that Putin would win this war, and it would last 'a few days and no more.' Former US General Ben Hodges prophesied that the war would end in the summer of 2022. What did you think when you heard that?

I assume that some members of the former political and military elites in Germany have been working for Russian interests or are still lobbying for them. This will be a very interesting topic for the war crimes tribunal in The Hague, because providing economic or propagandistic support for war crimes is also punishable. When a German officer is retired, he no longer has a duty to behave well. He can then criticize the government, criticize the Bundeswehr, and make predictions and value judgments. But the oath he took to the Federal Republic still applies for life.

Do you also get annoyed with these colleagues because they damage the reputation of your field?

I get annoyed because they - consciously or naively - spread the Kremlin's narrative and are guided by emotional sentiments instead of relying on historical and military facts. There are reasonable military experts, such as Markus Reisner or Gustav Gressel in Austria, who see the course of the war as more conservative or pessimistic than I do. I can live with that. History will judge us. In October, one can check if what I said was true. In ten years, one can look at me with historical distance.

Does the thought that the war might not be over by fall make you nervous? Then your expertise, your calculation system would have failed.

No, because I don't believe in the Russian propaganda narrative. I look at: What does Russia really look like? Don't go to Moscow, go to Smolensk or Pskov. That already tells you a lot about the Russian reality. If you have seen these places, you no longer believe in Russian strength.

In your interviews, you give journalists and the public exactly what they want to hear: the war will end soon, the Ukrainians will win, the Russians will withdraw. This scenario is tempting because it corresponds to our desires. How do you immunize yourself against wishful thinking?

I'm not so sure that everyone really wants this outcome. But I've constantly adjusted my assessment to the situation. And I always ask myself the same question: Is what I'm saying still true? I wasn't as optimistic at the beginning of this war as I am now. Even in the summer of 2022, I said: Ukraine is successfully resisting the invasion, but it's too early to claim they can win. One must remain critical of oneself. I try to read and analyze material for several hours every day. As a scientist, I have a reputation to lose.

You are a military economist at ETH and train Swiss officers. Why do you risk your reputation with risky predictions?

We are in a historic hour, in which you cannot stand aside. Either you stand against this regime, or you become a collaborator of it. In February 2022, I asked myself: Do you speak out now, or do you remain silent? And then I decided: I do not tolerate this empire projecting its power into the West, the Caucasus, and Central Asia, and that power should rule over law again. I will use my analytical skills to accompany this war as objectively and fact-based as possible. And this means in particular addressing the Kremlin's imperialist policies, which ultimately aim against the West. You can't do this without any danger.

What do you mean by that?

If something were to happen to me, it would be the crowning achievement of an analyst's life. Don't you think Switzerland is a safe space. Geneva is full of Russian agents, just like Vienna and Berlin. Officially, they are of course "cultural attachés". I can't stress it enough: the only thing the Russians respect is strength. So you can either collaborate - even through tacit tolerance - or resist.

So, there is an emotional component in your engagement after all?

As far as I'm concerned, the historians may laugh at me in ten years. Maybe the war will already be over in August. Then the trolls on the internet will say: He was much too conservative. But I cannot remain silent at this hour.

Starhopper	maandag 3 april 2023 @ 22:24
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Starhopper	maandag 3 april 2023 @ 22:24

slashdotter3	maandag 3 april 2023 @ 22:25
	twitter
eudaemonia	maandag 3 april 2023 @ 22:29
	quote: Op maandag 3 april 2023 21:59 schreef ISVV het volgende: Is er in Rusland (nog) ophef omdat er met name Boerjaten en andere minderheden naar het front gestuurd worden? De Yakoeten en Tartaren zijn inmiddels op?
oheng	maandag 3 april 2023 @ 22:29
	quote: Op maandag 3 april 2023 21:59 schreef ISVV het volgende: Is er in Rusland (nog) ophef omdat er met name Boerjaten en andere minderheden naar het front gestuurd worden? Er is vanalles aan de hand in de republieken in het oosten. Zo is vandaag de antiterroristische toestand uitgeroepen in Oegoesjetië. Het rommelt flink in de republieken. En we zitten wel gezellig te praten over die opgeblazen Vladlen, maar hou er ook rekening mee dat in Melitopol óók mensen opgeblazen worden. Dus tja.
michaelmoore	maandag 3 april 2023 @ 22:31
	quote: Op maandag 3 april 2023 22:29 schreef eudaemonia het volgende: [..] De Yakoeten en Tartaren zijn inmiddels op? De Kirgizen en Kazachen zijn nu aan de beurt
slashdotter3	maandag 3 april 2023 @ 22:31
	https://medium.com/@sp4uR(...)ukraine-810373b05d49 ======================================================================== Accept You’re Already Dead: Interview Three with an American Legionnaire in Ukraine ======================================================================== This interview is with an American serving in Ukraine’s International Legion. He talked to me about his thoughts and feelings about risking his life in Ukraine and how he has dealt with knowing death is not just possible but likely. These are his own words, edited only to remove repeat words and with minor grammatical edits for clarity. War is hell. Like, the movie won’t do it. The only way you will truly understand is to see your best friend there blown up in front of you, crying for his mom, his wife. Or him telling you “Hey, tell my baby I love him.” That’s the best way to explain. War is the absolute worst thing on this earth. But there’s people like myself that are ready to fight for it. But it’s just people need to understand that war is not a fucking joke. It’s not a joke. This shit happens. This isn’t fucking Call of Duty. You die, you die. There’s no redo. There’s no hold up can I go back and maybe tell my wife that I love her one last time? You’re done. It’s over. You’re dead. My wife keeps asking me why I’m willing to do this. And I’ll say, because these people deserve freedom. Would they do it for my country? Probably not. But is it the right thing to do? Yes. And for me? For me personally, when I meet Allah, he will judge me upon my actions and Allah will judge me upon fighting for the independence and freedom of people that deserved it but were not able to have it. The best way as a soldier is to accept the fact that you’re already dead. You are a dead man walking. You are dead. Like, you have no tomorrow. That is the best way to accept, especially where we’re going in the East. Obviously, you can’t say where we’re going, but you can put in the East. You know that. You’re dead, man. You are a dead man walking. You’re not alive anymore. Do your job as a soldier. Do anything you can as a soldier. But you’re dead, you’re already dead. If you’re if you’re already dead, you’re not going to think about it too much. You’re going to do your job as a soldier. You’re going to perform well. If you’re sitting there thinking, Oh, am I going to die? You’re going to freeze up and you are going to die, and then you’re going to get other people killed with you. What if you’re thinking, Hey, I’m already dead. It doesn’t matter. You perform well as a soldier. I tried to just be like a machine. Like, don’t think about anything. I don’t think about my life. I don’t think about my friends. I think about how many bullets are my mag, how many grenades we’ll have, how many rockets are on my on my back right now. What’s in front of me? What is the objective? The objective is get in this trench 25 meters in front of me. Alright 25 meters. Got it. How fast can I run 25 meters? 10 seconds, 15 seconds? That’s 15 seconds. In an open field where someone can kill me, is there cover? Can I move left? Can I move right? Like, what can I do to get in this trench and destroy whoever is in front of me like that? Only tactical and technical thoughts go through my head. It has nothing to do with my life, my family, beer, drinking, or anything at all like that. It’s all technical or tactical. Like, what can I do to achieve my goal so I can destroy the enemy? We joke about it. Like we’re dead in a month so why does it matter? Nothing matters. Accept death. Have fun with the world you’re in right now. Live it right now because in an hour, you might be dead. You don’t know. Enjoy what you have in the moment, it’s right in front of you.
slashdotter3	maandag 3 april 2023 @ 22:46
	Russische trollen zijn druk bezig met accounts aanmaken twitter
slashdotter3	maandag 3 april 2023 @ 22:52
	One sniper instructor in the Ukrainian military, who simply goes by Artyom, told Military Times in a recent interview that he prefers a Kalashnikov automatic rifle — also known as an AK — with a thermal scope to fight off Russian troops at close range in eastern Ukraine. "Believe it or not, this, with the proper optics is the most effective weapon I've used in this war," Artyom told the defense media outlet, referring to his automatic weapon and not his top-of-the-line sniper rifle. "A sniper rifle costs $20,000 or $30,000 dollars and can kill only one Russian quickly. An AK can defend against an entire assault." Lees verder: https://www.msn.com/en-us(...)fighting/ar-AA19qCKf
3rr0r	maandag 3 april 2023 @ 23:05
	quote: Op maandag 3 april 2023 21:49 schreef slashdotter3 het volgende: [ afbeelding ] Israel vergeet de vendor lock-in
3rr0r	maandag 3 april 2023 @ 23:09
	quote: Op maandag 3 april 2023 22:31 schreef slashdotter3 het volgende: If you’re sitting there thinking, Oh, am I going to die? You’re going to freeze up and you are going to die, and then you’re going to get other people killed with you. What if you’re thinking, Hey, I’m already dead. It doesn’t matter. You perform well as a soldier. Snap wel dat het een manier is om ermee om te gaan maar als je het teveel denkt dan neem je ook misschien juist teveel risico waardoor je juist jezelf en anderen in de problemen brengt. Angst is niet een onzinnig iets maar heeft nut, teveel angst is natuurlijk wel verlammend. Geloven dat er een hiernamaals is waar je in een paradijs komt en beloond wordt door een God voor je heldhaftige optreden helpt geheid enorm.
oheng	maandag 3 april 2023 @ 23:34
	Weer een vernietigde YPR-765, schijnbaar waren de inzittenden ongedeerd.
Discombobulate	maandag 3 april 2023 @ 23:35
	quote: Op maandag 3 april 2023 22:24 schreef Starhopper het volgende: [ afbeelding ] Leuk met p photoshop aan het spelen jongen?
Starhopper	maandag 3 april 2023 @ 23:42
	quote: Op maandag 3 april 2023 23:35 schreef Discombobulate het volgende: [..] Leuk met p photoshop aan het spelen jongen? Jaloers? Hoeft niet hoor. Als je een donatie doet krijg je ook een mooie foto van een granaat: Sign My Rocket
Nebelwerfer	maandag 3 april 2023 @ 23:52
	quote: Op maandag 3 april 2023 22:24 schreef Starhopper het volgende: [ afbeelding ] Ben je niet bang dat de Russen zo’n site hacken waarna ze de mailinglijsten tegenkomen?
luxerobots	maandag 3 april 2023 @ 23:54
	quote: Op maandag 3 april 2023 23:52 schreef Nebelwerfer het volgende: [..] Ben je niet bang dat de Russen zo’n site hacken waarna ze de mailinglijsten tegenkomen? En dan krijg je spam in je mail? Zolang je niet naar Rusland op vakantie gaat kunnen ze vrij weinig, of loont het de moeite niet.
Nebelwerfer	maandag 3 april 2023 @ 23:58
	quote: Op maandag 3 april 2023 23:54 schreef luxerobots het volgende: [..] En dan krijg je spam in je mail? Zolang je niet naar Rusland op vakantie gaat kunnen ze vrij weinig, of loont het de moeite niet. Jaja, voor je het weet lees je bij de rouwadvertenties: “hop for the stars zo zei ze altijd, maar ze viel uit een raam”. Ofzo
Slayage	dinsdag 4 april 2023 @ 00:07
	Helaas een geblurde versie twitter
Nebelwerfer	dinsdag 4 april 2023 @ 00:08
	twitter
Slayage	dinsdag 4 april 2023 @ 00:18
	twitter