Updated 14. November at 12:40 UTCSince midnight, 14 November, over 700 earthquakes have been located along the orientation of the magma intrusion, the largest of which was M 3.1 near to Hagafell. Last night, 13 November, stress-triggered seismicity occurred close to Kleifarvatn, with the largest earthquake registering M 3.8 at 21:09 UTC. Today, most earthquakes are occurring along the magma intrusion, with the majority being micro-earthquakes, commonly at focal depths of 3 to 5 km.
Deformation measurements, including high-resolution aerial observations, satellite radar imagery, and ground-based GPS observations reveal continued, ongoing ground movements due to the ongoing formation of the magma intrusion. These results are consistent with continued, albeit much lower magma inflow to the region of the intrusion.
Between 12 and 13 November, the inflow is estimated at 75 m3 / s, and the average depth to the top of the magma intrusion is thought to be around 800 m. The inflow and depth estimates are derived from model-based calculations, and they are subject to uncertainty.
Throughout this period of volcanic unrest, the focus has been continuous monitoring of seismicity and ground deformation in the Grindavík – Svartsengi region. To further our monitoring capabilities, we have installed additional GPS stations in and around Grindavík. The latest measurements from these stations show that the graben-like formation is still forming and mechanically active. Furthermore, to increase our ability to warn of an eruption, we have installed ground-based SO2 detectors that overlook Grindavík and south of Sundhnúkur.
In summary, the likelihood of an eruption remains high. If an eruption occurs, the most likely location will be on the magma intrusion. Our latest hazard assessment does not indicate any other potential eruption sites.