Could either erupt - or stabiliseThe Met Office risk assessment is unchanged and the situation is almost unchanged from yesterday, says Freysteinn Sigmundsson, a researcher at the University of Iceland.
"The situation is comparable to yesterday. The earthquakes continue, but the crustal movements are still slowing down, which is good. There remains evidence of magma inflow into this intrusion. That's why everything [possible] has to be done.
"The Met Office risk assessment remains unchanged. Although visible signals have reduced, the probability of an eruption has not changed at all."
Freysteinn says that when movements subside, it can lead to a balance being reached without an eruption.
"The magma influx has greatly decreased from what it was at the beginning and has become much slower. If magma comes to the surface, it would probably be more in line with what happened in the last eruption at Fagradalsfjall than something much bigger [forceful] than has been discussed."
The outlook is brighter than it was a weekend ago when it looked like the eruption could be much more powerful than the latest information suggests.
"There has been no noticeable change in the depth of the earthquake."
Possibility of magma never reaching surfaceIt is possible that the magma that now lies beneath Grindavík and the surrounding area will not reach the surface, according to geophysicist Páll Einarsson, speaking on Rás 1 this morning.
He mentioned the Krafla volcano, in north Iceland's Mývatn region, as an example.
"We know examples of this kind of movement starting. It can be quite powerful and cause tremors around it, but then it just burns out and the magma doesn't reach the surface."
Páll says that during the period of Krafla's eruptions between 1975 and 1984, 20 magma intrusions, or dykes, started, but only nine of them reached the surface.
"Actually, the two biggest intrusions did not surface. Even though there was a lot of movement and a large depression, the land subsided a few metres and the road split."
Bron:
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[ Bericht 14% gewijzigd door Puntenjager op 13-11-2023 16:33:26 ]